iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers Fund (NYSE: VEGI) targets the front end of the production chain (fertilizers or agricultural materials) while excluding exposure from companies at the end of the production chain (packaging and marketing). This is a bit similar to but nowhere near identical to the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO).
 
iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers Fund (NYSE: FILL) tracks the MSCI ACWI Select Energy Producers Investable Market Index.  This is similar to the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), but without the leverage.

iShares MSCI Global Select Metals & Mining Producers Fund (NYSE: PICK) aims to track the MSCI ACWI Select Metals & Mining Producers Ex Gold & Silver Investable Market Index. This one is not identical to but has overlaps with the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE: XME).

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners Fund (NYSE: RING) aims to track the MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Investable Market Index.  We consider this an alternative to the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX).

iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners Fund (NYSE: SLVP) aims to track the MSCI ACWI Select Silver Miners Investable Market Index.  We would consider its an alternative to the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL).

As far as why these are different from some other ‘production’ ETFs, iShares explains that these include only companies at, or near, the initial phase of production of the commodity. Investors can target the front end of the production chain instead of including the back-end of the production chain to focus on the aspects more sensitive to fluctuations in the underlying commodity price.  Companies further down the production cycle are impacted by a number of factors in addition to commodity prices.

An ETF for just about anything… now competing ETFs for many more strategies.

JON C. OGG

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is down by about 3.6% at $53.03 on close to 4 million shares, against a 52-week range of $44.86 to $89.24.  The larger rival and former takeover target of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) is down by 3.8% at $42.12 versus a 52-week range of $38.42 to $63.97.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) is down by 3.7% at $161.00 and its 52-week trading range is $115.34 to $192.70.

Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI) is down the least with shares down “only 2.6%” on the day at $24.07 and against a 52-week range of $20.75 to $40.22.

Using an exchange traded fund can emphasize just how bad things are and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down 1.2% at $49.39 versus a 52-week range of $39.86 to $57.93.

With so much corn used in food for humans, ethanol, and animal feedstocks, corn unfortunately is a key driver for the fertilizer and potash markets. 

Sadly, things brings up the question… Just how much do the potash and fertilizer markets depend upon the taxpayer-funded farm subsidies in America?  Probably more than any of us care to think.

JON C. OGG

Fertilizer maker Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) reported third-quarter earnings this morning that were more than double earnings for the same period a year ago. But in this case, a hit may be as good as a miss. Analysts expected EPS of $0.94 on revenue of $2.17 billion. Potash Corp. delivered diluted EPS of $0.94 on revenue of $2.32 billion. Gross margin rose from 35% in the same period last year to 49% this year. The company also noted that its EPS outlook for the full fiscal year is $3.40-$3.80. The consensus estimate is $3.75. In other words, no upside surprises from Potash Corp.

At the other end of the food chain, food processor Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.86 on revenue of $15.62 billion. The consensus estimates called for EPS of $1.62 on revenue of $14.32. Only Bunge’s fertilizer operations posted a quarterly gain over the same period last year, and that a scant $9 million. The company’s outlook did not include any specific forecasts for EPS or revenue, but Bunge does expect to fall short of its original estimate of sugar refining and sees continuing pressure on oilseed prices. The company expects its fertilizer business to improve, but that is historically its smallest revenue producer.

Ag company Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) reports earnings next Tuesday, and the consensus estimates are looking for EPS of $0.67 on $18.93 billion in revenue. The company posted EPS of $1.01 in the second quarter, and the estimate has fallen by 13% over the past three months.

Fertilizer makers Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) recently reported earnings for the first quarter of their 2012 fiscal years, and the results were not particularly thrilling. Monsanto posted an EPS loss of -$0.22, though that was better than an expected loss of -$0.27. For the current quarter Monsanto is expected to post EPS of $0.12. Mosaic posted EPS of $1.17 in its quarter ended in August and analysts are expecting EPS of $1.39 for the current quarter. In its quarter ending in August 2010, Mosaic posted EPS of $1.85.

All the fertilizer makers expect to see a price hike for their products both in the current quarter and next year. The reasoning is that the global economic slowdown notwithstanding, people want and need to eat. Rising economic conditions in the developing world, especially in China and India, support food prices and because it is cheaper to increase yields by applying fertilizer than it is to bring new land into food production, the companies foresee continuing growth.

Potash Corp. noted in its earnings release that shipments of potash to China and India are set for the fourth quarter and the company expects volumes to increase and prices to rise beginning in the first quarter of 2012. Potash Corp. said that contract potash prices to India will rise by $60/metric ton beginning in January.

While the general trend of the news is positive, volatility in the food and fertilizer markets seems to have been discounted in the outlooks for the coming year. The other big problem is the unreliability of information from China regarding stockpiles and demand. One trader has said that 80% of the information out of China is misleading, and that finding the 10%-20% that is accurate and useful is more difficult than it should be. That means that counting on China for growth can be risky, at best.

Shares in Potash Corp. are trading up about 2.4% in the pre-market this morning, at $50.70, in a 52-week range of $39.54-$63.97. Bunge stock is trading up less than 1%, at $60.00, in a 52-week range of $54.03-$76.12. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is up about 1.67%, at $50.55, in a 52-week range of $39.86-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

Looking ahead, Caterpillar raised its revenue guidance from $56-$58 billion to $58 billion, including about $2 billion from Bucyrus. EPS guidance was changed from $6.25-$6.75 to $6.75, including a negative impact of about $0.50 from the Bucyrus deal. The company hailed the recent passage of three free-trade agreements and “the growing understanding that we need to do something positive about infrastructure in the United States.” Needless to say, Caterpillar hopes to profit from both.

For 2012, Caterpillar continues to be optimistic. The company expects sales and revenues to increase by 10%-20%, much of which will come from Bucyrus. Caterpillar expects Bucyrus to boost total sales by about $5 billion next year. The company did not provide EPS guidance for 2012.

Of the company’s $1.14 billion in profit, more than 30% was attributed to a favorable exchange rate. The weaker US dollar clearly helped the company in the third quarter, but as the dollar gains strength profits could slow down. The company also reported weaker sales in China, and noted that sales rose in developed countries although total sales of new machines in developed countries “remain significantly below previous peak levels.”

Order backlog has climbed to an all-time high, and the company expects commodity prices to remain high enough to maintain current investment levels from Caterpillar’s customers. In developed countries, Caterpillar believes that deferred replacement of equipment will pick up modestly, while in developing countries the company expects more construction activity to drive additional sales. If sales in China continue to weaken, that may be a tough goal to reach.

Shares of Caterpillar are up about 5% a half hour before the market opens this morning, at $91.65 in a 52-week range of $67.54-$116.55. Deere is up more than 2.5%, at $74.10 in a 52-week range of $59.92-$99.80. Joy Global is up about 2.8%, at $84.10, in a 52-week range of $57.48-$103.44. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) is up about 1.5%, at $49.37, in a 52-week range of $39.86-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

Copper prices peaked in February, about a month behind copper miners Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Co. (NYSE: FCX), Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO) and a little earlier than BHP Billiton plc (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO). The decline in share prices was gradual from about April through July, but beginning in August shares turned more sharply down, as did the price of copper itself.

Corn prices hit a peak in June, and are still about 20% higher than they were in October 2010. None of the big ag stocks are near that high except fertilizer maker Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), up 31% in the past 12 months. Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) shares are off -23% in the past year, Bunge Ltd. shares are off about -3%, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan shares are down about -11%, and Mosaic Co. is off nearly -18%. Ethanol producers Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is up about 2%, while Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is barely breathing, off -96%.

The decline in the copper price began when orders from China began to cool off as a result of the country’s efforts to slow down its GDP growth. By some reports the country has an over-supply of housing that tops 65 million units. If the number is even half that, demand for copper in China could fall dramatically. And it’s possible to argue that a housing glut in China drove the copper price to new heights because construction in the US and other developed countries has stalled.

But the current global economic malaise is not entirely attributable to China. Eurozone sovereign debt and questions about the zone’s banks have pushed markets down hard and could be just as responsible for the falling price of copper as softer demand from China. In other words, copper could be following, not leading, a macroeconomic decline.

The falling price of corn can be attributed to better crop forecasts and the recent ‘discovery’ of more than 200 million bushels in US stocks has put even more pressure on corn prices. Unlike copper, though, corn prices get some demand help from a large alternative market. If corn is a leading indicator, then the effect of ethanol production, which consumes about 40% of the US corn crop, distorts its influence.

Ethanol production is highly profitable at the current price of around $6/bushel. Corn prices would have to rise to unprecedented heights over $9.50/bushel before demand from ethanol makers would start to decline. Even without the $0.45/gallon federal subsidy, corn prices would need to top $8/bushel before they would pinch the ethanol makers.

Something similar to the ethanol prop to corn prices doesn’t exist for copper. Some 70% of copper demand comes from construction and electrical/electronic industries. Of the remaining 30%, about 12% comes from the transportation industry and 9% comes from makers of industrial machinery. None of those sectors is large enough to prop up copper prices as ethanol props up corn prices.

The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETF (NYSE: JJC) is down more than -1.5% in the first half hour of trading this morning at $39.46, barely above its 52-week low of $39.08. The 52-week high is $61.69. The First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (NASDAQ: CU) is up about 2.25%, at $26.37, in a 52-week range of $23.60-$46.85.

Agricultural ETFs are up slightly this morning. The Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: CORN) is up about 0.5%, at $40.09, in a 52-week range of $31.37-$50.69. The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA) is up about 0.6%, at $29.90, in a 52-week range of $26.60-$35.58. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is up about 0.9%, at $42.30, in a 52-week range of $39.86-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

Mosaic gives the first indication of overall strength among the other fertilizer makers. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) is expected to post EPS of $0.93 for the quarter ending this month, more than double its EPS of $0.44 in the same period a year ago. Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is expected to show EPS of $1.85 in same period, up from EPS of $0.37 a year ago. Analysts expect CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) to post EPS of $4.56 in the September quarter, up from $1.10 a year ago. Only Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.27 for the current quarter, largely due to weakness in sales and margins of its Roundup herbicide.

The demand for fertilizer, particularly potash, reflects an effort among the world’s farmers to increase yields as crop prices remain relatively high. Expectations for crop plantings in the 2012-2013 crop year indicate that global wheat acreage could rise to about 563 million acres in 2012, up 4% from last year, while corn plantings could rise to 94.3 million acres world-wide.

But even if acres planted don’t increase much, farmers everywhere are looking to increase yields. China, for example, plants nearly as many acres of corn as the US, but yields are just half as large. If the country’s farmers could increase their yields, the amount of corn China must import to feed its people would fall.  The country has also restricted consumption of corn for industrial purposes like sweeteners and ethanol.

In what could be a boost to seed makers like Monsanto and Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT), China is also considering allowing the import of genetically modified seed even as it tests a domestically developed strain of corn seed. The country does allow import of genetically modified strains of corn for consumption.

Farmers chasing yield improvements are expected to be the driving force behind fertilizer makers’ growth. Mosaic received an average of $446/metric ton of potash in its first quarter, up from $331 in the same period a year ago. The company guided potash prices for the second quarter at $440-$465/metric ton. For its phosphate products, Mosaic received $576/metric ton in the first quarter, compared with $431 in the same period a year ago. Phosphate prices for the second quarter were guided at $600-$625/metric ton.

While farm prices remain high, fertilizer makers can raise prices and still maintain volume. Mosaic guided shipment levels for potash at 1.7-2.1 million metric tons for the second quarter, compared with shipments of 1.8 million metric tons in the first quarter. Shipments of phosphates are expected to rise to 3.1-3.5 million metric tons in the second quarter, compared with 3.2 million metric tons shipped in the first quarter.

The fertilizer business is strong now and looks to remain that way for the coming year.  Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is also up by more than 1% at $45.01 and its 52-week range is $43.00 to $57.93.

Paul Ausick

CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) reported quarterly earnings a couple of weeks ago and easily topped expectations. AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) also posted sterling results for its second quarter. Caterpillar Corp. (NYSE: CAT) reported very solid numbers in July — and the stock fell. That’s happening to Deere today as well. All four are down year-to-date.

Because earnings and revenues have been robust on the strength of demand for agricultural and other heavy equipment, it could be that investors have set expectations too high. Nothing less than spectacular will do.

Or it could be that the stocks are fairly valued now and were overbought before. Caterpillar’s forward multiple is 9.63, CNH’s is 8.11, AGCO’s is 8.66, and, based on today’s earnings report, Deere’s is slightly more than 11. Those numbers seem a little low.

What could be going on is that despite the these companies’ own forecasts for continue sales and profits, investors are more concerned with the cost side of things. Deere’s operating margin in its agricultural machinery division fell from nearly 39% in the same period last year to 33% this quarter. Rising raw materials costs are a legitimate concern, especially if other factors could begin to influence sales.

For example, Deere has projected lower sales in South America this year, an area where the company has been very strong. The company forecasts North American sales up 5%-10% on the year, but a report from an agricultural trade group notes that sales of tractors in the US are down slightly year-to-date, and were down -7.4% in the month of July.

Predictions for lower corn yields and a lower-than-expected harvest could also be adding pressure to farm equipment purchases. Even the increased availability of wheat on international markets due to Russia’s decision to resume exports could be stifling sales somewhat.

Fertilizer stocks are performing somewhat better overall due primarily to the fact that adding more fertilizer to increase yields is cheaper and more effective than buying new equipment. Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) have gained about 25% year-to-date, and shares in Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan are up about 8% in the same period.

Deere’s shares are down about -1% just after noon today, at $74.44, in a 52-week range of $60.45-$99.80. Volume has already surpassed the daily average. Caterpillar stock is down about -1.35%, at $88.14, in a 52-week range of $63.34-$116.55. Shares of CNH are down more than -2%, at $30.58, in a 52-week range of $27.01-$54.45, and AGCO shares are down more than -3%, at $39.23, in a 52-week range of $32.36-$59.81.

Shares of PowerShares Agriculture Fund are up about 0.7%, at $33.09, in a 52-week range of $25.63-$35.58. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is up about 0.25%, at $50.15, in a 52-week range of $42.35-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

Ethanol makers Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) and Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) also got a boost, but Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) dropped to a new 52-week low of $0.45/share. Pacific Ethanol faces higher costs for corn than either ADM which grows some of its own and Green Plains which benefits from being located in the Midwest, near the nation’s corn-growing region.

Some analysts are projecting a price for corn at above $8/bushel, busting through the all-time high of just over $7.99/bushel set in June. The impact on food prices is likely to vary as some food makers absorb the price increases and others pass the increases along to consumers.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM), General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS), and Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) are all trading higher than they were a year ago, but have pulled back from annual highs set earlier this summer. Meat processors Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL), and Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE: SFD) will likely switch at least part of their feed supply to cheaper wheat, helping keep prices down for chicken, beef, and pork.

Corn yields per acre are now expected to be 153 bushels/acre, down from a previous USDA estimate of 159 bushels/acre. But if hot temperatures continue, especially at night, yields could fall below 150 bushels/acre. That’s a 10% decline in the crop, and could push prices even higher.

For the ethanol makers, corn prices above $7.50/bushel make ethanol production unprofitable at the current price of around $2.60/gallon. Some wheat can be substituted for corn, but the price for ethanol will have to rise, to some extent cancelling any relief for consumers from lower oil prices.

Corn futures are trading slightly lower in Chicago this morning, after closing at $7.14/bushel yesterday. Soybeans and wheat also rose after the USDA’s report was released yesterday.

The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) closed at $49.17 yesterday, up more than 4% on the day, and within a 52-week range of $41.83-$57.93. The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA) rose about 2.5% yesterday, to close at $32.21, within its 52-week range of $25.63-$35.58.

Paul Ausick

Overall weakness in US economic growth, combined with still shaky European sovereign debt and some slowing in the emerging markets have dampened enthusiasm for equities. The Dow appears headed for a ninth straight day of losses and the S&P 500 has posted a new low for the year. There have to be some winners among equities, don’t there?

One place to look is fertilizer companies. CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) has been rising steadily for the past 52-weeks and is now about 90% higher than its 52-week low. The company’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 17.37, and its forward P/E is 9.98. The price/book ratio is at 2.5. CF Industries reports earnings tomorrow and analysts are expecting EPS of $5.87 on revenues of $1.76 billion. Three months ago EPS estimates were $5.39, so the bar has been set higher rather than lower.

CF Industries is just the top dog among several fertilizer companies that have experienced good growth in the past 12 months. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) has posted share price growth of nearly 60%, Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is up more than 40%, Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT) and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) are both up more than 35%, and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) has gained about 20%.

Global demand for food is high and rising, and increasing yields on available farmland is the quickest and cheapest way to get more food. These growth rates are, perhaps, too strong to be sustainable, but barring some enormous foul-up on the part of fertilizer makers, the upward trend in share prices is likely to continue.

For ETF investors, the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA) has posted a share price gain of around 28% this year, leading the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) by a couple of percentage points of gain. DBA is down about -1% today, at $32.47, within a 52-week range of $25.45-$35.58. MOO is also down about -1%, at $52.07, in a 52-week range of $41.03-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

And speaking of money, the latest acreage figures from the US Department of Agriculture should ease corn prices somewhat. That could tend to push prices up, for both corn and wheat, which are down 15% and 12% respectively this year.

Some analysts had been expecting corn planting to be down to around 90.5 million acres as a result of flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. It appears that in some states, like Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois where the flooding came early, farmers were able to get their crops in the ground a little later. Illinois corn acreage planted is down 100,000 acres from last year, but still over 12 million. Iowa is up by 800,000 acres over last year. Nebraska is up by 850,000 acres. Even North Dakota, where flooding continues, is up by 250,000 acres.

The not-so-good news is that stockpiles fell dramatically. On March 1st, the USDA reported 6.5 billion bushels of corn in stocks. On June 1st, that number had fallen to about 3.7 billion bushels. Last year, March stocks totaled 7.7 billion bushels, falling to 4.3 billion bushels in June.

Wheat stocks are also lower, from 1.1 billion bushels in March to 730 million bushels on June 1st. Last year the March total was 1.4 billion bushels, falling to 976 million in June. Wheat acres planted total 56.4 million, up from 53.6 million last year.

Initial reaction in the corn market will certainly be to send the price down by the $0.30/bushel limit within minutes of market open today. Wheat prices are not likely to tumble as far and as fast, because stocks are so precarious. But the re-entry of Russian wheat on the global market will put downward pressure on wheat prices in the days to come.

The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA) is down nearly -2% in early trading this morning, to $31.94, in a 52-week range of $23.61-$35.58. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down about -0.3%, to $53.45, in a 52-week range of $35.62-$57.93. DBA is an entirely commodities futures-based fund, while MOO includes equipment makers, fertilizer companies, and food processors.

Paul Ausick