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Sometimes special dividends make sense, and sometimes they do not. Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) traded lower most of the trading day after the fertilizer and potash giant declared a special cash dividend of $1.30 per share. The company also reaffirmed its 2010 capital spending guidance, but the special dividend failed to excite many investors. With a prior close of $51.79, that is a 2.5% special return. Generally speaking, special dividends have a higher return than this. They also tend to come when an entity feels that it has no better use of its capital. Yet the reaction today was an unfavorable one, and there are reasons why.
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Posts for Ticker ‘MOS’
When Special Dividends Don’t Deliver (MOS, MOO)
Top 10 Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (ADBE, BRCM, EBAY, GS, LLL, MS, MWW, MOS, RAX, WFC)
These are this Thursday morning’s top 10 Wall Street research calls we have seen in the land of upgrades, downgrades, and initiations:
Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) Raised to Outperform at RW Baird.
Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) Cut to Neutral at RW Baird.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) Raised to Buy at Kaufman Bros.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL) Cut to Conviction Sell List from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) Started as Outperform at RBC.
Rackspace (NYSE: RAX) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Started as Sell at UBS.
This top ten includes only some of the top financial sector analyst calls we saw this morning, where many “SELL” ratings were handed out. You can join our open email distribution list to get updates each morning on analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.
Jon C. Ogg
October 8, 2009
Mosaic Misses A Low Bar, Yet Holds Up (MOS)
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) was one stock where we noted that the bar for earnings expectations was very low. The fertilizer and potash player came even lower. It posted $0.23 EPS rather than $2.65 EPS a year ago and under the $0.35 EPS target. Quarterly revenues were down 66% to $1.5 billion, versus $2.9 billion a year ago and versus estimates of $1.54 billion. It ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2.6 billion as of August 31, 2009, but the business metrics are soft despite it trying to talk up long-term demand.
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The Unusual Suspects (AA, MOS, YUM, CVC, CIT, LOCM, RVSN, WFC)
It is the weekend and that means a review of last week’s unusual suspects and a review for key stocks in the week ahead. Technically earnings season gets its first earnings report from a DJIA component in ACLOA Inc. (NYSE: AA) this week, as well as earnings from The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and from Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM). Other key stocks to watch will be Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC), CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) on the ropes, the real or unreal takeover chances for Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM), and the unusual trading in Radvision Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC). We have provided more detailed information and analysis on each story below.
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Top Day Trader Alerts (DPTR, AMGN, PER, DELL, LEN, POT, MOS)
These are this Monday’s top day trader and active trader alert stocks in the pre-market. We have more details on each for volume and price moves at VSInvestor.com:
Delta Petroleum Corporation (NASDAQ: DPTR) is getting whacked and battered today on poor well results. It was a very bad weekend as shares are down 35%.
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is up over 2% and actually close to 52-week highs on positive study data.
Perot Systems Corp. (NYSE: PER) is up huge by 65% or more, but traders are selling as this is a huge premium and above what many would have expected. Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is going to be accused of overpaying.
Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is down 4% on somewhat active volume after posting wider losses.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is down almost 5% and not as much as it could have been… Lower guidance is hurting shares, look at Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) on this one as well.
You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week for top day trader alerts, analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more. We also have an affiliate offering a top 10 trading lessons sign-up.
JON C. OGG
Top Day Trader Alerts (ARIA, DPTR, ETFC, FSLR, MOS, POT, SLXP, S)
These are this Monday’s top day trader alert and active trader alert stocks. We have more color and more detail on price and volume analysis linked through to each at VSInvestor.com:
Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARIA) is one of the top gainers, up 15%… on positive study data.
Delta Petroleum Corporation (NASDAQ: DPTR) is down almost 8% and should be an active stock like it was last week.
E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) is up over 5% on an Citi call to “Buy” shares.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down over 3% on an analyst cut to Sell.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) are both getting clipped on a key analyst downgrade this morning.
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (NASDAQ: SLXP) is the biggest gainer this morning with a 50% gain on its key IBS study results.
Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) is rallying over 20% on word of a Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) bid coming. Here wwe noticed the stock is close to resistance, assuming the normal trading takes over after the jump up.
You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week for top day trader alerts, top analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.
JON C. OGG
SEPTEMBER 11, 2009
Top 10 Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades (BSX, DWA, ETFC, FSLR, LVS, MSFT, MOS, POT, UPS, UA)
These are the top 10 analyst calls for upgrades and downgrades seen early this Monday morning from Wall Street research firms:
Boston Scientific (BSX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
DreamWorks Animation (DWA) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
First Solar (FSLR) Cut to Sell at Soleil.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Raised to Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Microsoft (MSFT) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
Mosaic (MOS) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
UPS (UPS) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Under Armour (UA) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
JON C. OGG
Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (BIIB, FRX, GENZ, GILD, HOLX, LVS, MOS, NVAX, RIG, TXT)
These are the top ten analyst research initiations, upgrades, and downgrades we have seen from top Wall Street firms early this Wednesday morning:
Biogen-Idec (BIIB) Started as Underperform at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Forest Labs (FRX) Cut to Hold at Needham.
Genzyme (GENZ) Started as Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Gilead (GILD) Started as Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Hologic (HOLX) Cut to Hold at Canaccord.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Mosaic (MOS) Started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
Novavax (NVAX) Cut to Market Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
Transocean (RIG) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital.
Textron (TXT) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
JON C. OGG
Analyst Dumps Agriculture & Fertilizers (MOS, POT, MOO)
This morning is looking a little rough for some of the farming, agriculture, fertilizer, and potash stocks. We have seen a downgrade in the sector from UBS this morning. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy by the analyst team at UBS today. This broad call is also going to have an impact on Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO).
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Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (CCE, DRI, JASO, MOS, NOK, PALM, PAAS, POT, SOL, TLAB)
These are the top 10 pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen early this Thursday morning from Wall Street:
Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) Raised to Buy at UBS.
DR Horton (DRI) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
JA Solar (JASO) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Mosaic (MOS) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Nokia (NOK) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Palm (PALM) Cut to Sell at Morgan Joseph.
Pan-American Silver (PAAS) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Potash Corp. (POT) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
ReneSola (SOL) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; but cut to Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
Tellabs (TLAB) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
JON C. OGG
AUGUST 13, 2009
Mosaic Secures Larger Credit Facility (MOS)
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) has just announced a new unsecured credit facility with a syndicate of banks. While credit has been tight for many companies, this new three-year $500 million unsecured facility replaces a secured credit agreement that included a $450 million revolving credit facility scheduled to mature in February 2010. In short, this is a larger credit facility that may be at more flexible terms to the company considering how the sector and environment have been.
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Unusual Options Trading in Mosaic, Options Price Predicting (MOS, VALE)
We saw very unusual options trading late today during the last hour of trading in shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). This is the day after reports that Brazil’s Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) was interested in the company as one of the possible acquisitions in the potash and agri-business. We also saw a late-day sudden move of over $2.00 to the downside.
This highly unusual options trading in Mosaic had all the characteristics of last minute options rolls as today is the expiration date for the July 2009 stock options. Interestingly enough, the same sort of late-day dip was seen in shares of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and even in Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Potash Corp. also saw some obvious options roll trading that looked like a mini volume spike, but not in Intrepid.
Unless told differently, we will attribute all of the late-day action to the options roll. Either way, we wanted to dig down and try to use options as a prediction tool to see just what price is expected to come if Vale does make a play for Mosaic. This movement was quick enough and violent enough that we would not be surprised if this ends up being one of those classical trading patterns where large options trading triggered a big move and caused the rumor mongers to start barking.
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Top Day Trader Alerts (MOS, POT, CIT, NOK, JPM, CTAS, XLNX, PLCM, SLT)
These are some of the top stocks to watch this morning for active trading today based on pre-market and after-hours volume activity. There are links through to each with more detailed coverage and volume analysis at VSInvestor.com:
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) shares are up roughly 12 percent in premarket trade to $50 on takeover speculation, with rivals including Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) also seeing some early bids.
CIT Group (CIT) shares are likely to see a volume spike Thursday after newspaper reports suggest that a government bailout might not be cards, and talks reportedly broke down.
Stocks moving on earnings this morning include Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Others could move include Cintas Corp. (Nasdaq: CTAS), Xilinx Inc. (Nasdaq: XLNX) and Polycom Inc. (Nasdaq: PLCM).
Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT) may see a volume spike lower after a stock offering that priced at a 6 percent discount.
-The 24/7 Wall St. Team
New Fertilizer Dump, India and USDA (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, TRA, TNH, IPI, MOO)
Fertilizer stocks just can’t catch a break. If it isn’t an official earnings warning to watch out for or the stock market and economic growth concerns, then it government data. New data reported from the U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised concerns that farmers are going without fertilizer. Add in a report of another price drop in potash in India and you have the double whammy. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all seeing some action today. Just not good action. Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit.
Potash Earnings Issues Now Credibility Issues (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, TRA, TNH, IPI, MOO)
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) did last night what most traders already feared was coming. The Canadian potash supply giant said that weak demand for its products and lower prices were going to take earnings for the quarter down to about $0.70 EPS versus a previous forecast of $1.10 to $1.50 EPS. This is hitting other potash and fertilizer companies including Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is indicated to open lower this morning.
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Giving Ag, Potash, and Fertilizers A Second Chance (MON, POT, MOS, IPI, AGU, CF, MOO)
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) and Intrepid Potash,Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all recovering at least some from yesterday’s major drops. While Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are lower again, the declines are minuscule compared to yesterday’s reaction to the news. Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is trading up marginally. These stocks were crushed yesterday by word of lower demand and lower prices over at K+S in Europe.
Potash and Fertilizer Stocks Skunked By News From Germany (POT, MOS, MON, AGU, CF, IPI, MOO, SYT)
If you thought European stock news from companies doesn’t matter, this morning is proof against that notion. A German company called K+S warned of weak potash demand and announced price cuts and a drop in sales expectations. It is calling Q2 demand very weak ahead of the fall fertilization. This news has not yet been issued by US and Canadian fertilizer and potash players, but shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are getting hammered. Even the agriculture ETF such as the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit along with Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT).
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Mosaic’s BMO Ag Conference Presentation Summary (MOS)
Fertilizer maker, The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), outlined its strategy for the coming months at the BMO Capital Markets 2009 Agricultural, Protein & Fertilizer Conference today. We decided to prepare a quick-hit look at the highlights of Mosaic’s presentation to get a better post-earnings season feel for what to expect this summer from at least one of the top potash players for agriculture:
* Potash sales volumes will decline significantly in 2009 due to weak demand…. Long-term demand for potash will increase. (More to follow)
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Top 10 Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMGN, COP, DD, GENZ, GS, MON, MOS, BBY, PBR, VMW)
These are ten of the top impact research calls with upgrades and downgrades from Wall Street early this Friday morning:
Amgen (AMGN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
ConocoPhillips (COP) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
DuPont (DD) Started as Buy at UBS.
Genzyme (GENZ) Started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Started as Outperform at FBR.
Monsanto (MON) Started as Buy at UBS.
Mosaic (MOS) Started as Buy at UBS.
Best Buy (BBY) Removed from Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List, but maintained as “Buy.”
Petrobras (PBR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
VMware (VMW) Cut to Sell at Auriga.
JON C. OGG
March 27, 2009
Something Brewing At Mosaic? (MOS, AGU, CF, TRA)
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was lost in the financial shuffle today. Perhaps it should not have been. The stock rose up 8.5% at $43.05 today on more than double the normal volume. Options were extremely active too.
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