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Apple May Beat Back Android With A 4G iPhone

Douglas A. McIntyre — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 23:28:51 +0000

The state of the smartphone industry is based largely on the public’s perception of how well the Apple iPhone does against the legions of Android handsets. Some Apple fans are concerned about the growing popularity of the Google operating system at the expense of the iPhone. What is true today may not be shortly. Several manufacturers who use Android have launched products for 4G super fast broadband networks. Apple’s iPhone does not run on these new systems and the company refuses to comment about when it will.

The amount of research about the market share, profitability, use, and sales of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android-powered phones and the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone is tremendous.

Nielsen released data that showed 50% of smartphone buyers picked an Android device in the last quarter while 25 percent picked an iPhone. Nielsen found that 31% of those about to buy a smartphone wanted an Android handset. Apple fell slightly behind that. The battered BlackBerry was only the first purchase consideration of 11%. Research In Motion’s (NASDAQ: RIMM) new earnings showed the company’s dire predicament. RIM shipped 13.2 million BlackBerry devices which means it has fallen not just behind Apple, but also less-well-known competitors like Taiwan’s HTC.

The 4G market is large. HTC will ship at least 10 million 4G based smartphones this year. It has already taken advantage of the billions of dollars that AT&T Wireless and Verizon Wireless have invested in LTE 4G and the $5 billion that Sprint-Nextel (NYSE: S) has invested in WiMax. The 4G market is not well-established in Europe or parts of Asia, but will be within a year or two. Now that the large US carriers have made their investments, they need to recruit customers to justify them. Verizon and AT&T market their new 4G networks as aggressively, if not more aggressively than the Apple flagship product. The need for customers forces them to offer HTC or similar products

The world’s No. 2 handset company, Samsung, has already launched a line of 4G phones for the US. So has Motorola. These, added to HTC, will sell enough 4G enabled handsets to reach the 30 million mark in 2011. LG also has 4G models in the US market and all of these manufacturers will add new versions of their products as the year passes. It is reasonable to think that 50 million 4G smartphones will be sold in the US this year.

Conservative estimates are that Apple will sell 100 million iPhone units in the current fiscal year. Wall St. expects about half of those sales to be in the US and all of them will only work on 3G networks

The question the industry cannot answer or even reasonably forecasts is how many 4G iPhones would Apple sell in the US in the year after it is launched? Apple’s remarkably ability to launch a product which immediately takes a dominant share of market has been proved several times over. Some portion of the people who own iPhones currently would upgrade to a new version. Many people who bought handsets like the HTC Thunderbolt would convert. The iPhone has enough brand power to draw market share from other vendors as well as people who already own the company’s products. AT&T and Verizon would aggressively promote the new iPhone to drive their subscriber counts higher

One thing is certain. An iPhone 4G product would not be a success if sales failed to be a third or better of the current 50 million unit market. Apple fans would expect that number to be closer to 50%. The 4G market could double next year to 100 million in the US. Apple would have to sell 30 million to 50 million new iPhones to demonstrate that it still has the power to conquer markets. Apple iPhone 3G sales set a pace relatively similar to that in the fiscal year just past

A very successful Apple iPhone 4G would allow the company to take back share from Android. As the competition moves away from 3G, Android’s new numerical advantage should begin to fail.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Filed under: Telecom & Wireless, WiMAX, Wireless Tagged: AAPL, GOOG, MOT, RIMM

Ten Companies Running Out Of American Customers

Douglas A. McIntyre — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 10:58:51 +0000

Companies locked in a struggle to remain viable and maintain their profits and sales sometimes begin to run out of customers. This happened to GM (NYSE: GM), which had a 50% share of domestic car sales in the mid 1960s. GM’s portion of the American market is 20% today. Most of the business GM lost went to large Japanese manufacturers Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Nissan. The effects of GM’s failure where the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs and an eventual Chapter 11 filings.

Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) used to be a dominant retailer. So did JC Penney (NYSE: JCP). These wound up losing market share because of competition from Wal-Mart and a number of specialty stores such as Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF). This is nothing new. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was the only broadly available PC operating systems for years. Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was the No. 1 search engine until it was replaced by Google. Dell’s (NASDAQ: DELL) leading spot in the PC industry was eroded by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) which bought Compaq, and several Asian firms led by Lenovo and Acer.

One reason why companies lose customers is a lack of innovation. The Post Office did not move into the fax business. It did not offer e-mail addresses like AOL (NYSE:AOL) did. In other cases, large companies loosened their grip over the marketplace over time. Ninety-year old Kleenex had more than half the market share in tissues for decades. Store brands have pushed the market share of Kleenex down to 46% although it is still a highly profitable brand for parent Kimberly Clark.

Another reason that companies lose customers is that new competition often offers lower prices for similar products or services. American steel firms dominated the industry from the late 19th century until four decades ago. Japanese manufacturers began to offer cheaper products. More recently, steel production in China has increased sharply. The largest steel company in the world is India-based AcelorMittal which operates in more than 60 countries

Buggy whip companies could have been the first car makers, and newspapers could have been the first firms to put large amounts of news online. Neither happened. One new set of businesses were born. Older ones lost customers and some lost enough so that they were no longer viable.

This is the list of the Ten Companies Running Out Of American Customers.

1. Best Buy

December same-store sales for the consumer electronics company fell 4%. For the same period, sales at Best Buy stores open for at least 14 months declined 5% in the United States as competing retailers offered deeper discounts. Profits for Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) decreased 4.4% in the third quarter compared to last year. The company risks further loss in market share as more consumers turn to mass merchants and online shopping for their electronics needs. Best Buy offered a weak forecast for the quarter ahead when it announced earnings. The firm’s stock fell from $42 to $34 the day of the disclosure. Best Buy will specifically face greater future competition with like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN)

2. Nintendo

The Wii was a surprise victory for the video game company. The console outsold the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox and Sony (NYSE: SNE) PS3 worldwide for most of 2007, 2008 and 2009. More than 86 million Wiis were sold from 2006 to 2010. But as the novelty of the system wore off and with no replacement on the horizon, Nintendo has stopped winning new customers. The company is threatened by Sony’s “Move” device for the PlayStation 3 and Microsoft’s “Kinect” for the Xbox. Nintendo recently cut its sales forecast for the Wii from 17.5 milion to 16 million for the year. It also reduced sales forecasts for its handheld platform, the DS, by 1 million units.

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3. US Postal Service

The United States Postal Service continues to lose customers to its more efficient competitors. The number of pieces of mail handled by the USPS decreased from 201 billion in 2008 to 169 billion in 2010. The number of processing facilities operated by the agency fell from 599 in 2009 to 528 in 2010. The Post Office has been hurt by competition from UPS (NYSE: UPS), Fedex (NYSE: FDX), the fax machine and e-mail and online data transfer. People are even able to take notes on their smartphones that they used to write on paper.

Filed under: Autos, Bankruptcy, Cable Companies, Drug companies, Healthcare, Media, Pharmaceuticals, Satellite, Software, Technology, Telecom, Telecom & Wireless Tagged: AAPL, ANF, AOL, BBY, DELL, DISH, GM, GOOG, HMC, HPQ, JCP, MOT, MRK, MSFT, NOK, RIMM, SHLD, T, TGT, TM, VZ, WMT, YHOO

Short Sellers Exit Tech

Douglas A. McIntyre — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 11:15:58 +0000

Short sellers cut their bets against tech shares as earnings seasons approaches, based on data of short interest in major stocks as of December 31.

Shares short in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) dropped 17% to 48.4 million and the world’s largest chip company began its move to capture the handheld device market. The short interest in Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) dropped 7% to 30.3 million. This comes despite the sale of shares by CEO Larry Ellison. The IT spending recovery should favor Oracle’s fortunes.

The short interest in Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) ticked down to 41.2 million despite lackluster earnings. Shares short in Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) dropped a sharp 18% to 26.8 million. Wall St. has been impressed as the graphics chip company has increased its foot print in PCs and has begun to create hardware for smaller handheld devices.

Short sellers were ambivalent about the future of big banks, and the shares sold short in them did not change much in the latest measurement period. The short interest in Citigroup (NYSE: C) was flat at 354.6 million. Shares short in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) were down only 1% to 111.6 million. The short interest in Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) was up less than 5% to 51.6 million shares

Other notable changes included a 19% drop in short interest in Ford (NYSE: F), which had a strong year in domestic car sales, to 179.5 million. Shares short in Motorola (NYSE: MOT) fell 17% to 40.1 million ahead of a planned breakup of the company.

Data from NYSE and NASDAQ.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Filed under: Active Trader, Short Interest Tagged: BAC, C, CSCO, F, INTC, MOT, NVDA, ORCL, WFC

Meet the New Motorola, Actually Motorolas (MOT, MMI, MSI)

Jon C. Ogg — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 14:52:38 +0000

The old perpetually restructuring Motorola is now gone, reverse splits have taken place, and the new companies are trading on the NYSE. Starting today, we have the official launch of the two companies. Replacing Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) are Motorola Mobility Holdings (NYSE: MMI) and Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE: MSI).

Motorola Mobility’s operations are Mobile Phones and accessories, Business-Ready Devices, and Video Solutions for service providers. Its investor relations site was giving a ‘Network Error’ this morning.

Motorola Solution covers business and mission-critical communications products and services sold to enterprises and governments. This includes Two-way Radios and accessories, Mobile Computers, Wireless Network Infrastructure, Private Radio Systems, Bar Code Scanning and RFID, and Public Safety Broadband. Its investor relations site is here.

Some of the analyst calls for Motorola Mobility Holdings (NYSE: MMI) are as follows: Started as Outperform at Cowen; Started as Underweight at JPMorgan; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse; Started as Hold at Jefferies; Started as Overweight at Barclays; Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Some of the analyst calls for Motorola Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MSI) are as follows: Started as Hold at Citi; Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse; Started as Equal-Weight at Barclays; Started as Neutral at JPMorgan; Started as Hold at Jefferies.

It truly is a different world. The positive bias is on the consumer side and the caution is on the enterprise side. With the Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) slate of smartphones and with a tablet PC probably being debuted at the Consumer Electronics Show this week in Las Vegas, you know where the attention is being directed.

The reality is that it will likely be several days before the companies begin to be thought of as entirely different. Spin-offs and break-ups are often in limbo for a while before the public fully understands what it is evaluating for an investment opportunity.

Motorola Mobility shares were given a $30 debut indication and the NYSE open price was listed as $31.17 this morning. Motorola Solutions shares were given a $37 indication and we show an opening bell price of $37.30.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Consumer Electronics, Corporate Governance, Technology, Technology Companies, Telecom, Telecom & Wireless, Wireless Tagged: MMI, MOT, MSI

Today’s Top Rumors (CSCO, GOOG, MEE, MOT, SNE)

Jon C. Ogg — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 14:03:36 +0000

There are several rumors and developments happening this morning. We are tracking these and other situations, with updates throughout the day pending developments.

China is considering a tightening of credit by tightening capital requirements for its banks. China is also said to be raising gas prices at the end-user level.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is likely going to be looked at favorably at least this morning now that Jabil, a top OEM, beat earnings and raised guidance.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is said to be sniffing around at smaller players that compete in Groupon’s space after it failed to acquire the company (NYPost).

Massey Energy Co. (NYSE: MEE) reportedly has two bids for the company (WSJ and others).

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) may be viewed cautiously at 52-week highs ahead of the Motorola Mobility Holdings spin-off as RBC started the spin-off with a “Sector Perform” rating.

Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) is rumored to have a Playstation phone in April (Pocket-lint).

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Mergers & Acquisitions, Mergers and Buy Outs, Rumors Tagged: CSCO, GOOG, MEE, MOT, SNE

The Eight Big Spin-Offs To Watch For 2011 (AMR, MT, CVC, FST, FO, LORL, MOT, NOC, HHC, GGP, MSG)

Jon C. Ogg — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 12:35:31 +0000

2010 has been a positive year for the markets. IPOs and secondary offerings have been plentiful, debt offerings have been plentiful, and restructurings continue. Many spin-offs have been announced and will occur as we enter 2011. This marks the return of an old trend that will make investors look forward to more deals in 2011 and beyond.

AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC), Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Fortune Brands, Inc. (NYSE: FO), Loral Space & Communications Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: LORL), Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) are all either planning spin-offs or are considering them. There is also a winner so far in 2010 in The Howard Hughes Corporation (NYSE: HHC) from General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP). We have provided some basic information and color on each below.

1. AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), the parent of American Airlines, has wanted to unload American Eagle for years. What has prevented a deal has been the bad economy and high fuel prices. It was back in the summer that AMR disclosed that it had revived plans that could ultimately lead to a sale, divestiture, or even a spin-off. If the airline sector remains in favor this tranasaction could finally occur in 2011. AMR shares are trading around $7.75 and the 52-week trading range is $5.86 to $10.50. AMR peaked above $35.00 in early 2007. If this will assist in its attempt to regain a former glory, they will likely jettison the regional unit.

2. ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), the international steel giant, has recently confirmed that the stainless steel business will be spun off to shareholders. The plan is to distribute shares in the first quarter of 2011 at a ratio of one share of the stainless steel business for every twenty ArcelorMittal shares. With shares around $37.00, its 52-week trading range is $26.28 to $49.41.

3. Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) has already spun off Madison Square Garden, Inc. (NYSE: MSG) in February 2010. Now the Dolan family is looking at the same possibility for Rainbow Media. In November, the Dolans announced that the board of directors gave authorization to explore a possible spin-off of Rainbow Media. If this occurs, Rainbow Media would become a separate public company with its holdings being national programming, IFC, and Rainbow Network. Cablevision shares are very close to $35.00 and its 52-week trading range is $21.53 to $35.16.

Filed under: Active Trader, ADR, Calendar, Conglomerates, Corporate Governance, Dividend, Dividends & Buybacks, Editor's Picks, Industrials, International Markets, IPOs, IPOs & Secondaries, Mergers & Acquisitions, Mergers and Buy Outs, Secondary Offering, Stock Buybacks, Stock Splits, Turnarounds, Value Investing Tagged: AMR, CVC, FO, FST, GGP, HHC, LORL, MOT, MSG, MT, NOC

Google’s New Smartphone is Not the Big News (GOOG, BBY, AAPL, RIMM, NOK, MOT, NVDA)

Jon C. Ogg — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 16:55:18 +0000

It’s probably an overstatement to say that we have now gotten our first look at the long-awaited Nexus S smartphone from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). The new phone, introduced a mobile device conference in San Francisco, uses version 2.3 of Google’s Android operating system, and will be sold at Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) for $529 for the unlocked version and by T-Mobile for $199 with a contract.

Google and Samsung have worked together to put the hardware and software together for the Nexus S, but other handset makers are expected to climb onboard as well. The Android OS has already passed the Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iOS in shipments and is taking dead aim at both Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK).

Google also demonstrated a tablet device from Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) at the conference. The tablet uses a different version of the Android OS, code-named Honeycomb, which the company says has been adapted especially for tablets. Google’s spokesman didn’t offer many specifics about the device, but did note that the tablet uses a dual-core graphics chip from Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA). If the Android-based tablet is a marketplace winner, Nvidia could have found its place in a fast-growing and enormous potential market.

The more interesting news, though, is not about new hardware and software. It’s about money. To be precise, its about mobile advertising dollars and which company is getting them.

Both Google and Apple have purchased mobile ad networks in the past year. The ad networks are important potential revenue streams, especially for Google, which gives away its Android OS and doesn’t sell any hardware.

According to research firm IDC, Google now claims 59% of the $877 million spent on mobile advertising in the US in 2010. The IDC report, cited by Bloomberg Businessweek, estimates that Apple will get less than 10% of the mobile ad market in 2010.

Now even 100% of $877 million is not going to move the needle much on either Google or Apple revenues. But that is more than double the $368 million mobile ad market in 2009, and IDC expects the ad market to more than double again in 2011, to $2 billion.

This is what all the fuss over Android is about. As the Google smartphone OS continues to garner market share, the company’s ad network tags along. Google absolutely dominates the search engine ad market and, according to IDC’s estimate, also gets 19% of the display market. Apple captures 18.8% of the display market, but has no search engine revenue.

Even though Google and Apple are virtually tied for display ads now, as Android OS continues to gain share, so does Google’s penetration of the display market. IDC analyst Karsten Weide put the issue this way on The Wall Street Journal’s All Things Digital blog: “More [Android] devices means more mobile Internet traffic, means more ad inventory that can be sold to advertisers, means more revenue.” That about sums it up.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Consumer Electronics, Technology, Technology Companies, Telecom, Telecom & Wireless, Wireless Tagged: AAPL, BBY, GOOG, MOT, NOK, NVDA, RIMM

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (ANF, APD, AMZN, ACGL, BWLD, CSCO, GLW, ELN, ERJ, HES, JEC, LEAP, MOT, OGE, RY, SD, WBD)

Jon C. Ogg — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 13:02:40 +0000

These are some of this Monday’s key analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) Added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List.
Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $105 at Jefferies.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Reiterated Neutral but Raised Target to $165 at Credit Suisse.
Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ: ACGL) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Reiterated Buy with $24 target at BofA/ML.
Elan Corp. plc (NYSE: ELN) Raised to Buy at UBS.
EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) Raised to Market Weight and $80 target at Credit Suisse.
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: JEC) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) Cut to Hold at Auriga.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) Reiterated Buy at BofA/ML.
OGE Energy Corporation (NYSE: OGE) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
Sandridge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Wimm-Bill-Dan (NYSE: WBD) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

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JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ACGL, AMZN, ANF, APD, BWLD, CSCO, ELN, ERJ, GLW, HES, JEC, LEAP, MOT, OGE, RY, SD, WBD

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (APWR, ATHN, STD, BLK, BMRN, BUCY, FCS, LEAP, LM, MOT, NETL, RIMM, SWX, SBUX)

Jon C. Ogg — Thu, 02 Dec 2010 13:19:40 +0000

These are some of this Thursday’s key analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls.

A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NASDAQ: APWR) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Athenahealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHN) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) Cut to Hold at RBS.
Blackrock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Bucyrus International (NASDAQ: BUCY) Cut To Neutral From Buy By Goldman Sachs
Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE: FCS) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Leap Wireless International (NASDAQ: LEAP) Cut to Underweight at Piper Jaffray
Legg Mason, Inc. (NYSE: LM) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) Cut to Reduce at Nomura.
NetLogic Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: NETL) Started as Buy at Gleacher.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Started as Neutral at Nomura.
Southwest Gas Corporation (NYSE: SWX) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Stabucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) Maintained Neutral but raised target to $35 at BofA/ML.
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Sell at Axiom.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: APWR, ATHN, BLK, BMRN, BUCY, FCS, LEAP, LM, MOT, NETL, RIMM, SBUX, STD, SWX

Motorola, Back From The Dead, Gives Apple A Run For The Money

Douglas A. McIntyre — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 18:55:31 +0000

The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone may appear to be invulnerable at the top of the smartphone food chain, but it may soon have company.

ChangeWave reports

“Among individual iPhone models, the iPhone 4 received an exceptionally high Very Satisfied rating (84% for 32GB; 78% for 16GB) – confirming our earlier survey findings that despite the controversy surrounding its initial launch, the iPhone 4 has been extraordinarily well received by its owners.

Importantly, the iPhone 4 scores are even better than the ratings for the earlier generation iPhone 3GS models (81% for 32GB; 77% for 16GB) which were recorded in our May 2010 new smart phone owners survey.

Motorola came in an exceptionally strong second place, with 71% of new Motorola smart phone owners saying they’re Very Satisfied with their purchase – 8-pts ahead of third place HTC (63%).”

The numbers show that handset companies like Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and LG should not lose all hope as they trail Apple in the smartphone race. Motorola, after a huge success with the RAZR, lost money in the industry for two years and was considered no more than a niche player. Its new hardware design, coupled with the Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android mobile OS, has allowed it to re-enter the race.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Filed under: Telecom & Wireless, Wireless Tagged: AAPL, GOOG, MOT