Posts for Ticker ‘MPEL’

Melco Crown Outlines IPO Risks at Las Vegas Sands, MGM Too (MPEL, LVS, MGM, WYNN)

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) is holding up better than many might have expected after the stellar rise seen in the casino stocks with Macau ties.  Melco Crown turned a wider loss over a year ago, despite a 70% revenue rise.  The loss was on a net basis rather than operating basis on higher depreciation and related expenses as well accounting for interest payments from the City of Dreams project.  This has implications for the coming Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) IPO, and possibly even for MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) after Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) managed its IPO for Macau.
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Regulatory Risks Hit Macau Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MPEL)

Burning Money PicNews out of Macau, China is crushing some of the gambling stocks that have direct operations in Macau.  It looks like the Chinese are considering curbing the number of gambling tables, the minimum age of gamblers that can enter the casinos, and other potential restrictions, according to the Wall Street Journal’s Asia reports.  While the full details and full implications are not yet out, Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS), and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) are all getting hit on the reports.
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Secondary Offerings Run At Market Flood Rates (MPEL, GSIC, AWK, GLDD, YSI, TBBK, HMPR, SBCF, CADE, UMPQ)

money-stack-imageIt is one thing that we had two fairly large IPOs this week.  But the flood of public secondary stock offerings is almost running at alarming levels when you consider that these share sales are after such a large run-up in the markets.  Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) $200 million and GSI Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: GSIC) (and holders) sold about $201 million in secondary offerings this morning.  Other stocks in offerings are scheduled from American Water Works Co. (NYSE: AWK), Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp. (NASDAQ: GLDD), and U-Store-It Trust (NYSE: YSI).  Then there is the flood of regional and community banks selling stock.

Details are as follows:
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Top Day Trader Alerts (GSIC, BPAX, PALM, MPEL, C, RF)

These are this morning’s top day trader alert stocks and actively traded stock movers.  We have more detailed price and volume analysis with links to each over at VSInvestor.com:

GSI Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: GSIC) is down almost 5% on a juiced up secondary offering.

BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPAX) is up over 30% on positive Phase III safety data.

Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) is down over 4% early on an analyst downgrade.

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) is likely to have the most active day of 2009 on its secondary.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) was up 3% but the most active on NYSE on an internal management review process.

Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) was the biggest winner of the John Paulson added-banks.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 12, 2009

What Is Macau IPO Really Worth to Las Vegas Sands (LVS, MPEL, WYNN)

Money Stack ImageLas Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) has been all over the news today on reports that the company may conduct an initial public offering for its Macau assets.  The company would like to raise $3 billion to $4 billion, but this would likely only be a part of that raise.  Some traders are trying to imply a $3 billion to $4 billion value on Macau based on some creative re-reporting of the Reuters figures.    What we wanted to do was figure out what the assets could fetch on their own in an IPO.  The bad news is that an outright sale right now is something we think is elusive, at least anywhere near what Sheldon Adelson would want to sell it for.  If you consider the current market values of Melco Crown Entertainment Limit (NASDAQ: MPEL) or Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), the value for Macau is just not anywhere what it once was.
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Melco Crown Raising Cash (MPEL, WYNN, LVS)

money-stack-image26Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ: MPEL) has just filed with the SEC to raise up to $400 million in cash.  This is via a sale of ADS’s and underwriters were not named. These terms may change based upon market conditions, but the company listed that each ADS represents 3 ordinary shares of common stock.
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Analyst Downgrade Onslaught Continues (ASML, CMG, FORM, GFIG, ICE, KLAC, MSSR, MPEL, MRG, PEET, PRXI, PHM, RGLD, JAVA, TCK, TER, UDR, VNO)

Burning_money_pic_2This morning was a shocker on just how many analyst downgrades and very negative calls were out from Wall Street analysts.  The sad part is this is only part of the onslaught that we are still seeing.

  • ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • FormFactor (NASDAQ: FORM) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • GFI Group (NASDAQ: GFIG) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE: ICE) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • McCormick & Schmick’s (NASDAQ: MSSR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • Melco Crown (NASDAQ: MPEL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Morton’s Restaurant Group (NYSE: MRG) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • Peet’s Coffee & Tea (NASDAQ: PEET) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • Premier Exhibitions (NASDAQ: PRXI) Cut to Neutral at Merriman Curhan Ford.
  • Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Royal Gold (NASDAQ: RGLD) Cut to Sector Underperform at CIBC.
  • Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs (added details).
  • Teck (NYSE: TCK) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • Teradyne (NYSE: TER) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Vornado (NYSE: VNO) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg
January 8, 2009

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (EQIX, HLS, ITRI, MPEL, RTP, RTIX, UL, WSM)

Money_stack_picThese are the few upgrades and positive research calls we have seen from Wall Street analysts this Wednesday morning:

  • Equinix (EQIX) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Healthsouth (HLS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Itron (ITRI) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Melco Crown PBL (MPEL) Raised to Buy but target cut at Goldman Sachs.
  • Rio Tinto (RTP) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
  • RTI Biologics (RTIX) Started as Buy at Canaccord.
  • Unilever (UL) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
  • William Sonoma (WSM) Raised to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
November 26, 2008

24/7 Wall St. Day Trading Alert (FMCN)(SGMO)(OPTR)(GS)(LVS)(WYNN)(MPEL)

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250Focus Media (FMCN) is getting crushed this morning after posted bad numbers. Details..

Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO) ran into drug trial troubles and will trade way down.

Optimer Pharmaceuticals (OPTR) is ready for a big move up after good results from its new antibotic product.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is ready to sell off on concerns about earnings and the potential need to raise more cash.

The Las Vegas Sands (LVS) could lose it casino in Macau. The is causing moves in Wynn (WYNN) and Melco Crown  (MPEL).

Douglas A. McIntyre

Early Bird Analyst Downgrades (CHS, FIG, GE, MPEL, MTB, SNY, SLGN, STM, STI)

These are not all of the downgrades or negative analyst calls affecting stocks this Tuesday, but these are some of the highlights we have seen with over 2 and a half hours to the market open:

  • Chico’s FAS (NYSE: CHS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
  • General Electric (NYSE: GE) Cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  • Melco Crown Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) Cut to Underperform at Baird.
  • Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Silgan Holdings (NASDAQ: SLGN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
September 23, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (CPHD, DRIV, FDRY, MAN, MLM, MPEL, MPS, SMOD, VMC)

These are some of the top analyst downgrades we are seeing affecting shares of stock this morning:

  • Cepheid (CPHD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • Digital River (DRIV) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Foundry Networks (FDRY) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
  • Manpower (MAN) Started as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Martin Marietta (MLM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Melco Crown (MPEL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • MPS Group (MPS) Started as Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Smart Modular (SMOD) Cut to Hold at Needham.
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
September 10, 2008

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (JOBS, AUO, AVR, CRDN, CLX, DKS, GR, MPEL, PLXS, VSE)

These are not all of the downgrades or negative calls we have seen, but these are some calls moving shares this Monday morning:

  • 51jobs (JOBS) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • AU Optronics (AUO) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
  • Aventine Renewable (AVR) Cut to Underweight at Lehman.
  • Ceradyne (CRDN) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • Clorox (CLX) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Goodrich (GR) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Plexus (PLXS) Cut to Neutral  at Baird.
  • VeraSun Energy (VSE) Cut to Underweight at Lehman.

Jon C. Ogg
July 28, 2007

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ADBE, BIIB, DAI, DCGN, EBAY, HOG, JPM, WFC, MFE, MPEL, TIBX)

These are not at all the only key impact analyst calls, but these are the early bird calls that 247WallSt.com is focusing on:

  • Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America.
  • Daimler (NYSE: DAI) downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein.
  • deCODE Genetics (NASDAQ: DCGN) downgraded to Underweight at Lehman.
  • eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) raised to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
  • Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) downgraded to SELL from Hold at Citigroup.
  • JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) & Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) were both downgraded to Peer Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • McAfee (NYSE: MFE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL) raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • TIBCO Software (NASDAQ: TIBX) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
January 17, 2008

Casinos: Barron’s Take Vs. 24/7 Wall St. Take (WYNN, LVS, MPEL)

This weekend cover story from Barron’s was an article with some concerns over the value of casino stocks with exposure to Macau, and it even hints that valuations are at bubblish levels. It’s summary is "Investors who bet on U.S. gaming companies with Macau outposts have hit the jackpot. But it’s time to cash in the chips, despite bullishness about the gambling mecca’s growth prospects." 

Barron’s focused on Melco PBL and Wynn Resorts, but we also wanted to look at Las Vegas Sands as far as what the expected earnings were.  We wanted to run our own take and add in our own two cents as we have wondered how long the valuations and the strong performances can last there. Current book values are admittedly dated and partially irrelevant but we still wanted to show representation because it shows the bet being made on tomorrow rather than a true value based on current earnings.

Stock                          Price     X-Book  P/E    08P/E    Mkt Cap
Wynn (WYNN)        $134.50    7.76      74    41.77     $15.4Bil
Melco (MPEL)         $14.99      3.1       N/A    136         $6.0 Bil
Vegas Sands (LVS)$118.76   19       222    49.89    $42.2Bil

We also wanted to see how far down each stock was from the 52-week Highs, as well as how much the stock is up over the last year off its trailing 52-week low:
Stock                             Price     Yr. High     %Change   OffLows
Wynn (WYNN)           $134.50  $176.14    -23.64%     +57.2%
Melco (MPEL)            $14.99     $23.55      -36.34%     +50.6%
Vegas Sands (LVS) $118.76  $148.76    -20.16%      +66.7%

If you look at the value and other measures and if you had to pick from the three as which you want to own if Barron’s was just dead wrong, we’d want to look at which has the best P/E ratio for 2008, which is based the most on today’s earnings in case the economy heads south and the growth plans get delayed, and the discount to 52-week highs, and the performance off of 52-week lows (among other things).  On these metrics, Wynn Resorts would be the winner here hands down.

I had my own thought and opinion on this before I wanted to look at what Barron’s was ranking. After staying at the Wynn in Las Vegas this summer, I will personally tell you that the casino resort is a full notch above anything and everything there on the Vegas Strip.  It also has plans to basically double its pleasure with a new adjacent resort.  If the Wynn today is going to be outdone in the near future, it may only be outdone by itself. The Las Vegas Sands’ Venetian was king when I stayed there in 2000 but it is even a league behind The Wynn on the Strip today.  Melco PBL is a pure bet on tomorrow and on Macau, so all your bets are on Macau rather than what you get here in the U.S. too.  We also looked back to a report from August showing the most earnings growth.

Barron’s suffers the same outcome as many other longer-term forecasting, and that is on the real outcome versus today’s snapshot.  If you wanted to take the contrarian approach and use some simple metrics to decide which one you wanted to be in, we’d say out of these three alone that it would be in Wynn Resorts.

Jon C. Ogg
November 19, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (August 20, 2007)

AGP raised to Buy at Jefferies.
CCO raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
DELL started as Buy at WRHambrecht.
DLTR raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
DRI raised to Outperform at CIBC.
EQT started as BUy at Deutsche Bank.
FLS raised to Outperform at RBC.
FSLR raised to BUy at Deutsche Bank.
JBHT raised to Outperform at wachovia.
LAMR raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
MHP cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MPEL raised to Buy at Citigroup.
OATS cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
RIMM target raised to $295 at Goldman Sachs.
TSM raised to Buy at UBS.
WST started as Neutral at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
August 20, 2007

Wynn Resorts, Earnings Wynner! (WYNN, LVS, MPEL)

Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (NASDAQ:WYNN) posted earnings of $0.82 GAAP EPS on revenues of $687.5 million  First Call had estimates at $0.53 EPS and almost $604 million revenues.  Year over year results are hard to count comparably because Wynn Macau wasn’t open this last quarter in 2006.  Adjusted earnings were $0.92 EPS.

They are showing they aren’t just about the spread in gambling too.  Check these numbers out: Gross non-casino revenues for the quarter were $211.2 million, a 7.5% increase from the second quarter of 2006. Hotel revenues were up 7.6% to $74.4 million during the quarter, versus $69.2 million in the second quarter of 2006. Wynn Las Vegas achieved an Average Daily Rate (ADR) of $311 for the quarter, compared to $293 in the second quarter of 2006. The property’s occupancy was 97.0%, compared to 95.7% during the prior year period, generating revenue per available room (REVPAR) of $301 in the 2007 period (7.4% higher than in 2006).  Food and beverage revenues increased 5.7% to $82.1 million in the quarter, compared to $77.7 million in the second quarter of 2006. Retail revenues were $22.9 million in the quarter, compared to $19.3 million in the second quarter of 2006, an increase of 18.7%. Entertainment revenues were approximately $18.7 million, compared to $17.1 million in the second quarter of 2006 as Avenue Q closed in May 2006.

Wynn is also outlining its Encore property adjacent to the Wynn Las Vegas, abd it is going to be a big one: 20 acres on the Las Vegas Strip adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas, 2,034 all-suite hotel tower fully integrated with Wynn Las Vegas, 72,000 square foot casino, additional convention and meeting space, more restaurants, a nightclub, swimming pools, a spa and salon and retail outlets. Encore is expected to open in early 2009 and the project budget is currently estimated at approximately $2.2 billion all inclusive.  Its Macau operations are still growing as well since it decided to roll that operation out more gradually and will include another 20,000 square feet of gaming space.

After a recent convertible debt redemption, $224.1 million debt converted to equity and deferred financing was reduced by $5.2 million.  Wynn isn’t usually big on giving exact guidance since so much is unknown until the very end of a quarter, but shareholders don’t seem to care.  Shares are up some 9% at $117.00+ in after-hours trading, and that is after a 6.2% gain in regular trading.  If this holds, that will mark a new high over the prior $114.60 high.

Elsewhere, shares of Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ:MPEL) is seeing shares up over 3% after-hours to $13.10 and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) shares are up almost 3% after-hours.

Jon C. Ogg
August 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Earnings Preview: Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN, LVS, MPEL)

Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (NASDAQ:WYNN) reports earnings after the close.  This is by far one of the more volatile casino and resort names after earnings or news.  First Call has estimates at $0.53 EPS and almost $604 million revenues.

On a static basis options traders appear to only be expecting a move of up to 3.5% to 4%.  Analysts have an average price target of about $105.00 per share.  For most of 2007, shares have traded mostly in a $90.00 to $110.00 trading range.  Unfortunately the chart is rangebound and most non-directional, although the waves of highs on rallies has been a series of lower highs.  As of July, Wynn had almost 7.3 million shares in its short interest, or roughly 14% of the float.

Wynn now has a $10.4 Billion market cap and its shares have traded between $65.51 and $114.60 over the last year.  If you have been to the Wynn in Las Vegas, you’ll know that this is the benchmark for high-end casinos that want to draw high-rollers and upscale tourism business.  That is already known.  What this frequently boils down to is the ongoing developments and gradual continued roll-outs of its Wynn operations in Macau.  Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) is usually the most tied to Wynn as far as a competitor in Las Vegas and in Macau, and Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ:MPEL) is the ‘future Macau competitor.’

Jon C. Ogg
August 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Top 10 Stock Issues Review of This Week (July 6, 2007)

Stock Tickers: CME, BOT, DFS, RIMM, AAPL, AA, RTP, AL, AMD, MOT, ALU, MPEL, GM, TM, BIDU, INTC, DELL, MSFT

If the CME (CME) and CBOT (BOT) doesn’t get approved next week, then what will it take?

What price do investors like the Discover Card (DFS) owner at?

The whole darn world in the palm of your hand: Is a cheaper iPhone already on the way? Research-in-Motion (RIMM), finally headed to China…..

Alcoa (AA), Rio Tinto (RTP), Alcan (AL)…..who is buying whom?

Cramer makes a new list of 3 CEO’s to go (AMD, MOT, ALU).

Did Melco PBL Ent. (MPEL) really find a bottom?

Detroit is shivering…..When GM (GM) loses to Toyota (TM) on trucks, what’s in its future?  Maybe they should head to China like Chrysler.

Baidu.com (BIDU) is entering a time warp back to 1999/2000 Web 1.0 valuations.  Calling a stock too high just because of valuations can be painful sometimes, but when these parachutes catch fire there is no reserve chute.

PC’s aint dead! Here’s the evidence: Intel (INTC) hits another 52-week high, and a high close on Friday.  Dell (DELL) even hit a new 52-week high Friday, although the shares didn’t hold it.  Microsoft (MSFT) Vista sales are about to be smoking hot, or so some think; if they weren’t, the Xbox 360 $1 Billion PLUS charge would have hurt the stock more than the whole $0.02 it lost the day after that announcement.

Jon C. Ogg
July 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Trying to Find a Bottom: Melco PBL Ent. (MPEL)

If there was a stock with a hot story and lousy performance, it is Melco PBL Entertainment Ltd (MPEL-NASDAQ).  As the only pure-play into casino operations in Macau, and after Las Vegas Sands (LVS-NYSE) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN-NASDAQ) saw such a rise it is hard to imagine how the company has been such a bust.

This IPO priced last December at $19.00 and tried to stay above $20.00 after a premium open for close a month.  Unfortunately that was about the last good thing.  This did recover off of the $15.00 mark but then gave those gains back and a lot more.  Just recently shares hit a low of $11.29.  Today shares are up 8% to just over $13.20.  It appears that Citigroup maintained a Hold rating but said the stock was oversold this morning, although analyst Anil Daswani lowered estimates and lowered his $18.10 target down to $14.00.

Here is the problem: last month the company delayed its formal Macau opening from calendar Q4 2008 to March of 2009; it also said it had secured $2.75 Billion in fincaing to spend roughly $1.85 Billion on its City of Dreams project.  This has been interesting to watch because of its ‘pure-play status’ to the hot Macau casino market.  Unfortunately this one has a $5+ Billion market cap and is still probably closer to two-years before seeing any real cash come in the doors. 

It is also hard to trust some of these Asian pure-play growth stocks when there is nothing but outflows expected for much more than a year.  Sure, China should still be growing quite well in 2009.  When you go out too far investors getting in now are taking on more and more risks before being able to see returns.  Maybe a bottom has been found and maybe it hasn’t.  It’s just too difficult to get overly excited about an operating company that still has this far out on the calendar to wait to reap any actual rewards.

Jon C. Ogg
July 5, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Starbucks (SBUX) Leads The 52-Week Low Club

Starbucks (SBUX) Management says reaching higher expectations for quarter looks bad. Drops to $26.10 from $40.01. Would you like a latte with your stock certificate?

Esco Technologies (ESE) Big client Pacific Gas & Electric is looking at other metering technology. Drops to $35 from $58.42.

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) Another casualty of home sales fall-off. Drops to $18.51 from $38.66.

HRPT Properties Trust (HRP) sells $250 million in senior notes. Investors revolt. Down to $10.38 from 52-week high of $13.67.

Pulte Homes (PHM) Another home builder. Trades at $23.92 down from 52-week high of $35.56.

Zila  (ZILA) Cancer screening company has rough quarter. Falls to $1.07 from 52-week high of $3.38.

Heelys (HLYS) Shoes with rollers in them. Safety concerns. Nuf said. Down to $26.70 from 52-week high of $40.09.

Melco Pbl (MPEL) Casino company shares weak on concerns about restricted traffic to it Macau property. Raises $2.75 billion. Watch out for the communists. Down to $11.40 from 52-week high of $23.55.