24/7 Wall St. » MRK

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (DELL, EW, AKS, STLD, BRCM, GMCR, EDMC, NDAQ, QCOM, BZH, BSX, BCO, DO, LEA, MRK, TTWO, VIAB, ZNGA, MNOV, RGDX, BIOS, URG)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:08:53 +0000

All three major US stock indexes opened higher this morning, and spent the rest of the day bouncing around the neutral line. The reports from retailers on same-store sales in January were mixed, but overall sales failed to meet expectations. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified in Congress today, but did not really give the market much of a push one way or the other. The IPO filing from Facebook after markets closed last night pushed some social media stocks up on a halo effect. WTI crude oil is down 1% at $96.63/barrel and Brent crude is up 0.78% at $112.43/barrel. Gold closed up 0.67% at $1,761.30/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 11 points to 12,705.41 (-0.09%), the NASDAQ rose more than 11 points (0.4%) to 2,859.68, and the S&P 500 rose 0.11% or nearly 1.5 points to 1,325.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE: EW) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) cut to ‘neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) started as ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is up nearly 24% at $66.30; Education Management Corp. (NASDAQ: EDMC) is down -17% at $21.19; Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is down -0.6% at $24.62; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 2.2% at $60.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $61.93 earlier today; Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is up 3.2% at $3.27; Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) is down -3.9% at $5.85; Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) is down -17.5% at $24.43; Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) is up 0.35% at $63.29; Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is down -1.2% at $42.48; Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is down -0.3% at $38.51; Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) is down -0.3% at $15.71; and Viacom Inc. (NASDAQ: VIAB) is down -0.9% at $46.53.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is up nearly 18% at $12.49 after posting a new post-IPO high of $12.91 earlier today. The social games company got a big boost from Facebook’s IPO filing. Our coverage is here.

MediciNova Inc. (NASDAQ: MNOV) is up nearly 31% at $2.47. The company received a favorable patent notice for a multiple sclerosis treatment device.

Response Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: RGDX) is up more than 27% at $1.50. The drug maker announced the private placement of about 5.3 million shares at $1.50/share, about 28% higher than last night’s closing price.

BioScrip Inc. (NASDAQ: BIOS) is up more than 15% at $6.73. The pharmacy services provider has sold a portion of its assets to Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) for $225 million.

Ur-Energy Inc. (AMEX: URG) is down more than -13% at $1.22. The uranium miner has issued 1.5 million shares of new stock to agents who will attempt to sell at CDN$1.00.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll report
10:00 a.m. – Factory orders
10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing (services) index

Paul Ausick

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire Tagged: AKS, BCO, BIOS, BRCM, BSX, BZH, DELL, DO, EDMC, EW, GMCR, LEA, MNOV, MRK, NDAQ, QCOM, RGDX, STLD, TTWO, URG, VIA-B, ZNGA

Merck Close to 52-Week High After Earnings (MRK)

Administrator — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 13:55:51 +0000

Merck & Company, Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is trading up after its earnings report. With a high dividend yield of 4.4%, many investors are watching this despite a stance of little to no real growth coming from the Big Pharma giant. As expected, the no growth stance remains in place for the year ahead.

Net income was $1.51 billion, or $0.49 in earnings per share; on an adjusted basis the figures were $2.98 billion in income and $0.97 EPS. We had estimates of $0.95 EPS for the adjusted figure. Revenue was up 1.6% to $12.29 billion and that was a bit shy of the $12.52 billion expected. Merck’s total pharmaceutical sales were up about 3% to $10.76 billion

As far as guidance, Merck gave a projected 2012 earnings range of $3.75 to $3.85 in earnings per share and the consensus estimate is $3.83 per share.

The only real driving force today is the higher dividend, which jumped to $0.42 at the last payment. That was the first such dividend hike since all the way back to 2004.

Maybe investors are pleased that generics are not killing brand drugs as much as feared. The stock is actually up 1.4% at $39.18 in the pre-market and investors need to remember that the 52-week high is $39.43 right now.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Drug companies, Earnings, Healthcare, Pharmaceuticals Tagged: MRK

Top Earnings Previews For Thursday (BZH, PHM, BX, CME, DOW, GNW, GILD, IP, K, MA, MRK, RCL, HOT, TRMB, VRTX, YRCW)

Administrator — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 20:43:53 +0000

Earnings season is still upon us. There are going to be many big earnings reports Thursday and we would consider Thursday as the climax for the companies reporting their normal fourth quarter results of 2011 which have fiscal year-end dates of December 31.

We have two homebuilder earnings due from Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) and PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Other key earnings to watch will be from the following: Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX); Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX); CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME); Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW); Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD); International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP); Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K); MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA); Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK); Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL); Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT); Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB); Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX); YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

We have included Thomson Reuters consensus estimates on each company. On most we have included pricing data and/or other bits of color for traders to consider.

We have two different homebuilders on deck to report. Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is expected to post -$0.36 EPS on $211.4 million in sales and we would watch cancellation rates on contracts as well as the quality of the earnings. Second is PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) with an expected positive earnings of $0.07 EPS on $1.14 billion in sales. Pulte’s cancellation rates and quality of earnings will also have to be monitored.

Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) will show private equity wealth and earnings in the morning. The firm is expected to report earnings of $0.38 EPS on revenues of $986.75 million.

Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) has been down and out for longer than any current and past holder would like to consider. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.08 EPS on $1.91 billion in sales.

CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME) is expected to report earnings of $3.71 EPS and $754 million in sales before the market opens. With a possibility of a state-relocation and the ongoing pressure of exchange mergers we would be watching this one. At roughly $244.50, the 52-week trading range is $224.69 to $317.27.

Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) is expected to turn in earnings of $0.30 EPS on $14.19 billion in sales. The report is due in the morning.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is expected to report earnings of $0.19 EPS on $2.58 billion in sales. The shares are now up over 60% from the lows of the last year and the stock still remains pressured due to the mortgage insurance overhang that has been in place for quite some time.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) has shocked the market by outperforming despite what appears to be a bad use of effort and capital in the large acquisition. Still, shares hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.05 EPS and $2.18 billion in sales.

International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) is close to being within striking range of a 52-week high and it pays well above a 3% yield today. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.61 EPS and $6.5 billion in sales.

Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) is lagging and actually close to a 52-week low with shares around the $49.50 mark. The estimates are $0.63 on $2.99 billion in sales. The bar is set very low here.

MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) will show just what the interchange fee problems look like, but that is not fully reflected at all in current numbers. The consensus estimates are $3.92 EPS and $1.73 billion in sales. With shares around $357 some are concerned over valuations here.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is reporting early Thursday morning and the company’s higher dividend hike has shares trading very close to 52-week highs with a price of close to $38.70 andf a 52-week range of $29.47 to $39.43. Estimates are $0.95 EPS and $12.53 billion in sales. To show just how low growth is the estimates of $3.76 EPS and $48.23 billion in sales for all of 2011 are only expected to be $3.83 EPS on $47.62 billion in sales for all of 2012.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) may or may not release. With its rival’s disaster, we are not doing much legwork here. Thomson Reuters has a projection of $0.15 EPS and $1.78 billion in sales.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT) is key for hotel investors and this one is expected to post $0.57 EPS on $1.42 billion in sales. Starwood has over $1 billion in cash but is still trading at a high 3.7-times book value.

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB) is not so widely watched on its own, but it is used as a barometer reading for Garmin. Trimble estimates are $0.48 EPS and $419.10.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) has been in the news with new FDA approvals. We have Thursday as the tentative date and estimates are $0.73 EPS and $523.66 million in sales.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is set to report and it is a puzzlement as to how this stock is still alive. On a reverse split basis the $12.83 price compares to a 52-week range of $7.94 to somewhere over $1,000. The consensus is listed as -$6.97 EPS but we have no idea how these targets are composed on this company.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Calendar, Earnings Tagged: BX, BZH, CME, DOW, GILD, GNW, HOT, IP, K, MA, MRK, PHM, RCL, TRMB, VRTX, YRCW

Pfizer Sneaks By Earnings Estimates (PFE, MRK)

Administrator — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 12:17:12 +0000

Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE) looks good on the surface on its earnings report for the fourth quarter, but the company’s guidance may be getting in the way a bit. The drug giant turned in results of $0.50 EPS on sales of about $16.7 billion. Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.47 EPS. The guidance and results are meant to reflect unfavorable changes in foreign exchange due to a stronger U.S. dollar. Today’s news will set up the trend for Merck & Co, Inc. (NYSE: MRK) earnings later this week.

As far as 2012 is concerned, Pfizer is targeting $2.20 to $2.30 earnings per share, which is slightly under prior targets and is currently compared to a Thomson Reuters consensus of $2.28 EPS. The new 2012 guidance for sales is $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion versus a prior range of $62.7 billion to $64.7 billion. The Thomson Reuters consensus is $2.30 EPS for this coming year.

The company noted:

Its Primary Care unit revenues were favorably impacted primarily by foreign exchange; growth from Celebrex, Lyrica, Pristiq and Spiriva, among others; and the addition of $93 million, or 2%, from legacy King products…
Negatively impacted by the loss of exclusivity of Lipitor and Caduet in Nov-2011 and Aricept in Nov-2010; Together, those losses reduced Primary Care unit revenues by $775 million, or 13%, versus fourth-quarter 2010.
Emerging Markets unit revenues were negatively impacted by foreign exchange and increased pricing pressures.
Animal Health unit revenues rose 13% due to the addition of legacy King products as well as strong performance in the global livestock portfolio.

Pfizer has been trading up and down in the early hours of the pre-market and shares are up 0.3% at $21.65 on last look against a 52-week range of $16.63 to $22.17.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Consumer Goods, Currency, Defensive Stocks, Drug companies, Earnings, Healthcare, Pharmaceuticals Tagged: MRK, PFE

Pharma Value Beyond The Patent Expiration Cliff (PFE, MRK, BMY, TEVA, AMGN, GSK)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 18:37:24 +0000

The tide of patent expirations that is washing over big pharmaceutical houses is cresting now and investors have begun looking forward to how these companies will deal with some sharp blows to their revenues and profits. There are 21 drugs set to lose patent protection in 2012, and that will cost drug makers $11.5 billion in sales this year. We’ve looked at several of the larger pharmaceutical houses with a close eye on their upside potential in 2012.

The companies we’ve included are Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Merck & Co Inc. (NYSE: MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY), Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (NASDAQ: TEVA), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), and GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK).

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) trades around $22.00 and the 52-week range is $16.63 to $22.00. With a $168 billion market cap, this one trades at about 15-times expected earnings and 9.5-times expected 2012 earnings. Thomson Reuters has a mean price target objective of $23.76, indicating implied upside of 8%.

Merck & Co Inc. (NYSE: MRK) trades near $38 and the 52-week range is $29.47-$39.00. With a $117 billion market cap, Merck trades at about 28-times expected earnings and 10-times expected 2012 earnings. The mean price target objective is $39.85, indicating a potential upside of 4.9%.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) trades near $34 and the 52-week range is $24.97-$35.44. With a market cap of about $58 billion, this one trades at about 17-times expected earnings and 17-times forward earnings. The mean price target objective is $32.91, indicating that shares are fully valued and upside potential has gone missing.

Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (NASDAQ: TEVA) trades at about $44 and the 52-week range is $35.00-$57.08. With a market cap of $39 billion, Teva trades at about 13-times earnings and 8-times forward earnings. The mean price target objective is $53.15, indicating an implied upside of nearly 21%. The company has also seen gains since disclosing a new CEO.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) trades at about $66 and the 52-week range is $47.66-$65.70. With a market cap of $58 billion, this one trades at about 16-times earnings and 11-times forward earnings. The mean price target objective is $65.45, and, like Bristol-Myers, Amgen is fully valued and there is no implied gain at the current price.

GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK) trades at about $44 and the 52-week range is $36.28-$46.50. With a market cap of $221 billion, this one trades at about 44-times earnings and 13-times forward earnings. The mean price target objective is $49.58, indicating an implied upside of 12.7%.

Only Teva and GlaxoSmithKline have double-digit upside potential percentage gains. Of the two, Teva’s upside potential is greater, largely because it just lost a patent dispute (which pushed the share price down) and gained a new CEO, an industry veteran from Bristol-Myers (which pushed the share price back up). The downside on the company is that it is trading down about -18% over the past 12 months, the only one of these six companies to show a loss for the period.

Glaxo is preparing a regulatory filing in the US with a replacement for the company’s Adair asthma drug which loses patent protection next year. Late-stage trials have been promising, and the stock could get a nice boost if the FDA grants approval. Glaxo also received three new drug approvals from the FDA in 2011,

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Drug companies, Pharmaceuticals, Regulation Tagged: AMGN, BMY, GSK, MRK, PFE, TEVA

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (COST, XOM, AKAM, P, SCCO, MRK, AYI, CBST, AA, INHX, PSOF, IDIX, NFLX, THRX, LTRX)

Paul Ausick — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 21:07:28 +0000

US markets opened up slightly this morning and have maintained a slight positive tone for most of the day. Today marks the unofficial beginning of another earnings season, with Alcoa kicking things off after markets close today. There was little substantive news out of Europe other than France and Germany have agreed to propose financial transaction tax which has no chance of being enacted. European markets were mixed today as were Asian markets. Crude oil is lower today, with WTI down -0.3% at $101.26/barrel and Brent down -0.84% at $112.11/barrel. Gold is also down less than half a point, at $1,609.80.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 33 points to 12,392.54 (0.26%), the NASDAQ rose more than 2 points (0.09%) to 2,676.56, and the S&P 500 rose 0.23% or nearly 3 points to 1,280.70.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) cut to ‘underperform’ at Bernstein; Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reiterated as ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs; Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) cut to ‘sell’ from ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) started as ‘buy’ at Needham; Southern Copper Co. (NYSE: SCCO) cut to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank; and Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) downgraded to ‘hold’ at Jefferies.

Earnings reports of note since markets closed Friday include: Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI) is up nearly 9% at $54.79; and Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST) is down -0.55% at $39.95. After markets close today bellwether Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is expected to report an EPS loss of -$0.02.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Inhibitex Inc. (NASDAQ: INHX) is up more than 140% at $23.70 after posting a new 52-week high of $24.08 earlier today. The drug company has agreed to be acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) for $2.5 billion ($26/share in cash).

Pansoft Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: PSOF) is up nearly 56% at $3.13. The Chinese enterprise software company received a buyout offer from Timesway Group Ltd, which is controlled by Pansoft’s chairman, for $3.76/share for the shares Timesway does not already own.

Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IDIX) is up more than 36% at $9.59 after posting a new 52-week high of $10.39 earlier today. The drug maker’s hepatitis C drug got a postive report on an interim drug trial, the same categoy of drug made by Inhibitex. More coverage here.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is up more than 14% at $98.62. The video rental and streaming company launched its streaming service in the UK and Ireland today. We have more coverage here.

Theravance Inc. (NASDAQ: THRX) is down more than -19% at $16.27. The biopharmaceutical firm reported that a new drug to treat asthma and other pulmonary diseases performed no better than an existing drug in a clinical trial.

Lantronix Inc. (NASDAQ: LTRX) is up more than 28% at $2.95. The networking products maker launched new wireless printing products aimed at devices that use the iOS operating system software from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Stay tuned for Tuesday. San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Kansas City Fed President Esther George are giving speeches. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:30 a.m. – NFIB small business optimism index
11:30 a.m. – 4- and 52-week Treasury bill auctions
1:00 p.m. – 3-year Treasury note auction

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: AA, AKAM, AYI, CBST, COST, IDIX, INHX, LTRX, MRK, NFLX, P, PSOF, SCCO, THRX, XOM

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AKAM, GAS, AAPL, ARMH, B, COST, XOM, FR, HTH, IART, IGT, MRK, P, PENN, PVH, RBS, SCCO, THOR)

Administrator — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 13:09:46 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Monday morning.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup.
AGL Resources Inc. (NYSE: GAS) Started as Underperform and named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Buy with $460.00 price target objective by Argus; maintained Conviction Buy List and target raised to $550 from $520 at Goldman Sachs.
ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) Started as Underperform at Bernstein.
Barnes Group Inc. (NYSE: B) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) Cut to Underperform at Bernstein.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Reiterated Buy at Goldman Sachs.
First Industrial Realty Trust (NYSE: FR) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Hilltop Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HTH) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: IART) Cut to Hold at Argus.
International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) Removed from US Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies.
Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) Started as Buy at Needham.
Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN) Added to the US Focus List at Credit Suisse.
PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH) Started as Buy at Stern Agee.
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (NYSE: RBS) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Thoratec Corporation (NASDAQ: THOR) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We also include additional research notes, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AAPL, AKAM, ARMH, B, COST, FR, gas, HTH, IART, IGT, MRK, P, PENN, PVH, RBS, SCCO, THOR, XOM

Tracking Dividends in Biotech: Who Follows Amgen in Payouts? (AMGN, PFE, MRK, BIIB, CELG, ALXN, CBST, PDLI, REGN, VRTX)

Administrator — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:01:10 +0000

For several years it has been the case that Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) was considered a biotech though it had at least some of the same problems of Big Pharma players like Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK). The difference is that Amgen refused for ages to pay a dividend. 2011 marked a change in its dividend policy.

Amgen’s current dividend is 2.3%, which is rather high for a biotech stock. It also should be noted that the $64.00 price is above the stock’s old former rangebound levels of $50.00 to $60.00. Pfizer currently yields 3.7%, but that is about to rise to closer to 4%, and Merck yields about 4.50% after its dividend hike.

The question for 2012 is simple: Which biotech stocks will be among the second waves to initiate paying a dividend? By our count, these are the biotech outfits that might entertain following Amgen’s dividend path: Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN), Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST), PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX).

We would have evaluated the chances of Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) initiating a dividend, but this $11 billion proposed buyout of Pharmasset, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRUS) is likely to keep Gilead tied up for quite some time.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) is close to all-time highs above $70 and is now worth a whopping $13.2 billion. Estimates are $1.30 EPS for 2011 and $1.66 EPS for 2012, making this one have a much higher valuation while it is still rapidly growing. Some investors may expect that it could start paying out a dividend, but it is too soon by our take today, even with a $445 million balance of cash and liquidity with almost no long-term debt.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) has estimates of $5.89 EPS in 2011 and $6.31 EPS in 2012. The company had only about $3 billion in cash and investments at the end of September versus a current market cap of about $27 billion. 2011 was the year that investors decided to give up on worrying about the very rare PML cases in TYSABRI, and that allowed Biogen shares to rise almost 60% in 2011. If Biogen decides to get off the no-dividend bandwagon soon, we would only look for an initial payout of $1.00 on an annualized basis for a while.

Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) may still be too new of an earnings story to start expecting a dividend. The earnings estimates are $3.80 EPS in 2011 and $4.51 EPS in 2012. With almost $2.6 billion in cash and investments, its market cap is larger than Biogen’s at $30 billion.

Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST) managed an incredible breakout year as its drugs treat hospital-borne infections, with nearly a 100% share price gain in 2011. The market cap is now about $2.45 billion, and it had nearly $1 billion in cash and liquidity before a recent $221 million acquisition versus about $450 million in long-term debt. Cubist probably could start to pay a dividend if it wants to, but the company has decided to be an acquirer rather than hoarding cash or going defensive. Chances are that it may need to hold on to its cash while it absorbs Adolor and anything else it is considering.

PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI) has been a dividend payer from its patent royalties, but some payments have been one-time payments until its most recent $0.15 payout for each of the past four quarters. The company also recently forecast a 5% revenue drop and investors are already braced for lower royalty payments. The company recently lost its CFO after only about three years on the job and we really do not like to see CFOs leave biohealth companies. Estimates are $1.18 EPS for 2011 and $1.38 EPS in 2012, but it has about $225 million in cash and liquidity versus a market cap of $867 million. The company may just stick with its current payout structure’s high yield as is until (or if) it can secure another large patent license.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is worth some $5.1 billion or so in market capitalization and is fresh off the news that it settled with Genentech over U.S. opthalmic sales of the eye drug EYLEA with a patent case still brewing, but with Regeneron agreeing to pay out $60 million if sales reach $400 million and it will pay royalties out as well. With cash and liquidity of near $500 million at then end of September we think it is a bit premature to ask this one to start shelling out its cash to shareholders yet, considering it is still expected to have a wide loss in 2012.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) is so far off of highs now that it seems unlikely investors are expecting much on the dividend front. The company is back on the path of growth after some changes and stumbles, and now its market cap is almost $7 billion. With this one it just feels too soon to expect any dividends in reality. We could analyze all we want, but its new revenue growth is challenged by a cash balance of just over $800 million versus $400 million in long-term debt. What is interesting is that Vertex’s $0.30 EPS expected for 2011 is expected to be $4.55 EPS in 2012. It had a loss of $3.77 EPS in 2010. Maybe after another year or so we can evaluate its future dividend strategy.

After reviewing the great biotech sector’s larger components, it sure does not sound like many other than Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) are really new prime-time dividend candidates for 2012, other than the high payout of PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI).

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Biotech, Dividend, Drug companies, Healthcare, Shareholder Issues Tagged: ALXN, AMGN, BIIB, CBST, CELG, MRK, PDLI, PFE, REGN, VRTX, VRUS

DJIA 2012: Best Targets Imply DJIA 13,678 (BAC, JPM, VZ, IBM, CVX, MCD, CSCO, XOM, GE, HPQ, INTC, MRK, PFE, PG, WMT, DIA)

Administrator — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:40:28 +0000

As each new year replaces the prior year, 24/7 Wall St. looks at the individual targets on all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average price targets from Wall Street analysts to come up with a peak price for the DJIA in the year ahead. It turns out that when you blend the targets of the 30 DJIA stocks equally, the target prices have come within about 1% in each of the past two years.

In 2010, the methodology called for a target of 11,455 and the DJIA closed out at 11,577.51 for the year. In 2011, the methodology called for a blended peak consensus of 13,042.06. While the DJIA closed 2011 up 5.5% at 12,217.56 for the year, the peak 2011 DJIA price was 12,928.50. Using stock market projections often feels like a game of horseshoes, or a bit like throwing hand grenades, because being close enough is generally all that matters. The blended DJIA price target peak for 2012, using the 24/7 Wall St. methodology is 13,678, or a gain of 11.96%.

Amazingly enough, this year’s projected figure may actually be understated because this removes the wild card performances of Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Bank analysts have price targets that are still much higher than current prices and these have a low weighting in the actual share price weighting of the DJIA methodology. For that reason, the 13,678 is based upon 28 components. If we included the target using our methodology with just J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) shares, we would get an expected gain of 12.9% to 13,793; but if we also include the large upside targets to Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), then the DJIA target would be 14,035 for a gain of 14.88%.

There are caveats that have to be considered, particularly for a projected gain of almost 12% in 2012. The first is that analysts as a group are often too bullish, and the second is that this is intended to represent a peak level of 2012 rather than a year-end call. Only one of the 30 DJIA components, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), is trading above its consensus price target from Thomson Reuters due to fresh highs in the stock. Many DJIA stocks closed well under their 52-week highs, but most consensus price targets on the 30 DJIA components would actually hit new 52-week highs in 2012 if the analysts are correct. A solid fourth quarter for U.S. stocks is part of why the analysts are still excited on individual stocks in 2012.

2011 was a very volatile year. The United States lost its prized Triple-A rating by S&P, emerging markets cooled off, the European Union went into meltdown mode, and all the while the big American companies managed to grow earnings, buy back stock at a feverish pace and even managed to grow their dividends. The last quarter for the DJIA was actually up about 12% versus 5.5% for the year. The broader market of the S&P 500 was up 11% in the fourth quarter but managed to close out the year literally 0.04 points lower than a year earlier.

The best of the 30 DJIA stocks was McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) with a gain of about 31%. It rose so much that analysts now only see about 3% upside, based on year-end price target objectives. The three highest price components helped the DJIA gain as follows: International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) rose about 27%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) rose almost 20%, and McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) rose over 30%. Warren Buffett even bought about $10 billion worth of IBM shares.

There were also many big losers out of the 30 DJIA components. A 58% drop in Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) shares made it the worst performer of the 30 DJIA stocks. Other big losers were Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) at -43%, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) at -38%, and even J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was dragged lower by almost 20% as the bank stocks slid. A couple of key components were barely changed. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) managed a small gain of almost 1.4% and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) closed down 1.5%.

The DJIA projection methodology has come within about 1% in each of the past two years. Does it seem too good to be true for 2012? With how sensitive the economy is today, it feels like it may be too good to be true. 2011 was so volatile and the DJIA performance of 5.5% compared to basically a total wash on the S&P 500 performance. Is it fair to question a methodology that worked for the past two years? If the DJIA hits 13,678 in 2012, that would compare to a high of 12,928.50 over the past year.

There are at least some things that could drive such a bullish projection. 2012 is an election year and that has often helped stocks. Will the gridlock of today interrupt 2012? The recession is now two and a half years in the rear-view mirror. The problems at the end of 2011 are likely to act as continued headwinds in 2012. Europe is still on the border of crisis. China is not posting the blazing growth needed to drive mature economies. Many segments of the manufacturing sector have excess capacity and moderate demand. Still, traditional valuations of stocks today are very low by historic standards. Companies are still raising dividends and still repurchasing stocks.

The Dogs of the Dow have a yield of roughly 4% for 2012. The 10-Year Treasury yield closed out 2011 at only 1.87% and the 30-Year Treasury Bond closed out 2011 with a yield of only 2.89%. After a rough glance, it looks like 24 of the 30 DJIA stocks have a higher yield than the 10-Year Treasury Note, and 13 of 30 even outyield the 30-Year Treasury Bond. This sets up a scenario where income-oriented and yield-hungry investors may use the DJIA and other established dividend players as competition for income rather than buying Treasuries.

Will Ben Bernanke’s promise to keep interest rates exceptionally low through mid-2013 hold true? Even if it does hold true, by the end of 2012 that promise will have only six months or so left to it. Are not markets supposed to be price exploration mechanisms for the months and year ahead?

Of the other 30 DJIA stocks, there are some good things to look forward to and some headwinds at the same time. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trying to turn itself around. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) recently gave a big revenue warning, and that may hold back more interest in Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) both made good gains in 2011 despite a patent expiration cliff and less-than-exciting drug pipelines. And Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is entering 2012 after a near 14% gain and is acting like it wants to surge to new multiyear highs.

If the implied gains of almost 12% do somehow manage to come true in 2012, the implied peak target on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) would be roughly $136.47, if the performance of the ETF matches the index performance tick for tick.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls, Economy, Editor's Picks, Index, Large Cap Stocks, Special Report Tagged: AA, BAC, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DIA, GE, HD, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JPM, MCD, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, VZ, WMT, XOM

Which Dogs of the Dow Are Best in 2012? (T, VZ, MRK, PFE, GE, DD, JNJ, INTC, PG, MSFT, CVX, JPM, KFT, MCD)

Administrator — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 18:02:54 +0000

The lineup of the Dogs of the Dow, simply the ten highest dividend yield stocks of the thirty Dow Jones Industrial Average components, appears to be undergoing a bit of change for 2012. There is a significant horserace taking place for the number-ten spot on the 2012 Dogs. The average yield comes to about 4% depending upon the final order.

The nearly certain nine Dogs of the Dow are as follows: AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T); Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ); Merck & Company, Inc. (NYSE: MRK); Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE); General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE); E.I. du Pont de Nemours (NYSE: DD); Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ); Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC); and The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG). The horserace for the tenth spot on the Dogs is taking place among three DJIA components, with a distant fourth in the running: Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT); Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT); Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX); and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).

Here is the current expected order of the 2012 Dogs of the Dow, with dividend yields included:

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) 5.9%
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) 5.2%
Merck & Company, Inc. (NYSE: MRK) 4.5%
Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE) 3.7%… After the most recent dividend hike which has not been paid out, the new yield will be 4.06% rather than a rounded off 3.7%.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) 3.6%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours (NYSE: DD), or DuPont, 3.6%
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) 3.5%
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) 3.4%
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) 3.14%

The four DJIA stocks competing for the tenth-spot:

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) 3.07%
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) 3.08%
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) 3.03%
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) 2.98%

What is so interesting about this list is that Microsoft is entering the Dogs for what may be the first time ever. McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is actually not in the list this year. Those which have recently raised dividends outside of Microsoft are AT&T, Merck, Pfizer, and G.E.

If you average the top nine DJIA yields, investors get an average of about 4.06%. If you include a 3.05% average for the competing four to go into the tenth spot, then the average dividend yield comes to 3.96%. As far as how this compares to the 2011 list, the lowest yield a year ago was roughly 3.1% as well.

Is it any coincidence that the average yield last year among the ten Dogs was 4.01%? Here is the 2011 Dogs of the Dow review from a year ago for comparison.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Dividend, Index, Shareholder Issues Tagged: CVX, DD, GE, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KFT, MCD, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, T, VZ