The Hong Kong division of Alibaba may go private as part of a refinancing and a buyback of Yahoo!’s (NASDAQ: YHOO) shares. (Reuters)

Financial backers of Greece say they are concerned about whether a deal to lend the company more money will hold. (Reuters)

Economists concerned about the U.S. economy a few months ago change their opinions. (Reuters)

A fall off in investment bank activity hurts Barclays (NYSE: BCS) earnings. (Reuters)

China’s imports fall, raising demand concerns. (Reuters)

The new CEO of Sony (NYSE: SNE) will try to marry hardware and software for many of the firm’s products, just as he did with the PS3. (Reuters)

The head of Xstrata is under pressure to get a better deal for a Glencore merger. (Reuters)

A new settlement between banks and the government could help one million homeowners. (WSJ)

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to launch a home entertainment system as it moves into the hardware space as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has. (WSJ)

An insider trading bill is broadly supported by Congress members. (WSJ)

Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) expands its use of web-based software products. (WSJ)

The FDA will speed the approval of biosimilar drug treatments. (WSJ)

An Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) reorganization could cost 1,800 jobs. (WSJ)

Weekly unemployment benefits numbers improve steadily. (WSJ)

Greek unemployment rises to 20.9%. (WSJ)

The head of the European Central Bank pushes banks to take inexpensive loans to stabilize eurozone financials. (WSJ)

Canada will allow uranium exports to China. (WSJ)

A Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS) and Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA) partnership to marry physical games with online ones. (WSJ)

Southern Co.’s (NYSE: SO) plan to build a reactor in Georgia receives NRC approval. (WSJ)

Apple’s market cap passes that of Google and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) combined. (WSJ)

New research suggests the education gap between rich and poor has widened. (NYT)

German officials are worried that the ECB has cut lending standards too much. (FT)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Handset makers Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MMI), Sony Ericsson, LG Electronics, and HTC Corp. trail far behind in profits, with only Nokia, Samsung, and HTC posting any profit at all. Sony Ericsson posted an operating loss of -$317 million in 2011 and Motorola lost -$19 million. LG managed to break even.

In market share by operating system, Apple’s iOS trails the Android operating system from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), with 19% to Android’s 48% at the end of 2011. Canaccord Genuity estimates that at the end of this year, Android will hold 57% share to Apple’s 22%. The wild card here is Nokia’s coming introduction of new smartphones using the Windows Phone operating system from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Compared with profits, though, operating system market share doesn’t mean much, especially because Google distributes Android for free. And that free software is probably the only thing that allows Samsung and HTC to make a profit at all.

What gives Apple its staggering profit share is the company’s ability to price its iPhones at a premium other vendors’ offerings. Apple is clearly forcing its competitors to race to the bottom and compete with one another on price. Ericsson has already abandoned its joint venture with Sony. Why Sony plans to continue losing money probably has more to do with management egos than anything else.

Motorola, which is about to be acquired by Google, is also in a precarious position. Because Android doesn’t cost any of its competitors anything, the Google/Moto tie-up gains no advantage from the acquisition. HTC, which has fouled up its inventory management, might not have enough time to sort itself out. LG can hold on for a while because it is large enough to absorb some losses (-$266 million in the first 3 quarters of 2011), but there’s really no reason for the company to continue to bleed to death.

Samsung saw its share of the industry’s total operating profits fall from 26% in the third quarter of 2011 to 15% in the fourth quarter. And it looks like the third quarter was the aberration, probably due to impatient consumers who would have bought the iPhone 4S if it had been available by late September.

Samsung is expected to grow its market share from 19.5% in 2011 to 26.3% in 2012. That doesn’t really help much though, as Samsung’s problem is that its profit share is quite vulnerable. The company simply doesn’t have the thought leadership position in the smartphone marketplace and there is no way for the company to price its phones to yield maximum operating profits. Its position remains at the front of the line of also-rans.

Canaccord Genuity raised its price target for Apple to $665/share today, and we have more coverage on that here. Apple shares are up about 3.6% just before noon today, at $493.72 after posting a new 52-week high of $495.12.

Paul Ausick

Let’s just call it a seller’s strike.  You can’t find anyone selling Apple.  In the ten trading sessions since earnings, the days with gains have been on seven of the ten days but the days with losses have been only negligible.

Apple jumped to $446.66 after earnings, up from $420.41 at the close on the day of its earnings.  Now shares have closed up 1% at $468.83 for a new all-time high closing price and Apple’s market cap is now at a staggering $437 billion.

And to think… Apple is trading at only 11-times the implied 2012 earnings estimates.  By now it has more than $100 billion in cash on the books.  One day this run will end, but who knows when…  James Altucher gave a $1,000 Apple call last night on CNBC.  The consensus target is now $562.96 and some analysts see $650 as a target.

This stock is now much larger than Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and about its only care about Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is now just remembering that there is supposed to be a rivalry.

JON C. OGG

BP Fights On

The crisis at BP (NYSE: BP) due to the Deepwater Horizon disaster seems long gone. It is not. BP signaled an improvement of its financial health with a dividend increase. At almost the same time, the UK-based firm said it would “vigorously” contest suits against it because of the spill. That vigorous defense of actions will take years. The first major suits against it will be filed this month. Large liability cases brought by governments and private enterprises against major companies before indicate that the process of trial and settlement talks can drag on seemingly forever.

Toyota’s Recovery

Toyota (NYSE: TM) announced the start of an unexpectedly rapid comeback from recall problems and the shuttering of many of its plants due to the Japanese earthquake of last March and more recent interruptions of its supply lines due to floods in Thailand. Toyota made $1.1 billion in the quarter that ended in December. Toyota raised forecasts for net and operating profit. The company still has to regain market share in the U.S. and gain on Volkswagen and General Motors (NYSE: GM) in China, the world’s largest car market. Its market share in the U.S. reached almost 18% four years ago, and it briefly moved ahead of Ford (NYSE: F). Its portion of the market is down to about 12%, and its has competition from resurrected GM and Chrysler, as well has rapidly selling new cars and light trucks made by South Korean manufacturing behemoth Hyundai.

Lumia 900 Launch

Nokia’s (NYSE: NOK) Lumia 900, its new flagship product, is about to go on sale in the U.S. The launch carries with it the hopes of a comeback for the world’s largest handset maker and its software partner Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). Microsoft has had terrible trouble as it struggled to sell its mobile OS against Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL), as well as smartphones that use the Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android platform. The recent history of smartphone launches shows that the fate of products usually is determined in the first few days they are available. Reports of strong sales bring new customers into stores. Reports of weak sales cause analysts and the press to label a new product DOA.

Douglas A. McIntyre

• Feb 01 traded 125,300 shares and closed at $14.59
• Jan 31 traded 58,300 shares and closed at $14.25
• Jan 30 traded 33,400 shares and closed at $14.28
• Jan 27 traded 16,200 shares and closed at $14.20
• Jan 26 traded 400 shares and closed at $13.50
• Jan 25 traded 1,300 shares and closed at $13.59

We said it before and we will say it again… This ETF owns no shares of Facebook as of yet.  It will have to after the Facebook IPO but it does not now.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) owns shares but barely rose today.  Affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own shares, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) owns shares.  The social media company only has a halo-effect around the theme of social media.

Facebook is and was one of our Top 17 IPOs For 2012, but so was Twitter, Living Social and Yelp.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) closed up 6.4% at $76.98 solely on being a rival and Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) rose 16% to $12.39 due to its being north of 10% of Facebook’s revenues.

What is so funny is that even FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN), the adult-themed social networking site and one of the worst IPOs of modern time, rose solely because of the social media halo.  That gain was 16% to $1.33 against a 52-week range (actually under a year) of $0.51 to $10.01.

The one business development company which does own Facebook shares is GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC).  Its shares have risen since the impending filing was telegraphed last Friday and the stock rose by over 7% to $18.51 today.

This is called the Halo-effect if there ever was one.

Facebook’s full IPO details are here.

JON C. OGG

While Facebook has said that it is choosing the “FB” stock ticker, it did not specify whether or not the NYSE or NASDAQ would get the listing.  Keep in mind that Mark Zuckerberg is where the buck stops if you evaluate the share structure.

Be advised that there is a dual-class of stock with A shares and B shares.  Each share of Class A common stock is entitled to one vote per share. Each share of Class B common stock is entitled to ten votes per share and is convertible at any time into one share of Class A common stock.

The underwriting group is as follows: lead book-runners are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs; co-managers are BofA/Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, and Allen & Company.

BASIC STATS:

• 845 million monthly active users,
• 2.7 billion likes and comments per day,
• 250 million photos uploaded per day,
• and 100 billion friendships.
• The company also has 483 million daily active users.
• It also had roughly 3200 employees as of December 31.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is listed as a competitor and it is an owner, while Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is not an owner and is listed as a key competitor.  Twitter is competitor.  As a reminder, GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC) is an owner of stock as well.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) still owns a small stake as well.

We are now finally getting to see at least some of the preliminary figures from Facebook to use for financial analysis:

• 2009 revenues $777M, $122M net income for shareholders;
• 2010 revenues $1.974B, $372M net income for shareholders;
• 2011 revenues $3.711B, $668M net income for shareholders.
• The company’s cash and marketable securities at the end of 2011 was $3.908 billion.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) accounted for about 12% of 2011 total revenues for Facebook.

Mark Zuckerberg owns 28.4% of the total voting power, but he has a proxy over insider shares that gives him 56.9% of the total voting power.  Other big holders are James Breyer at 11.4% and Peter A. Thiel at 2.5%.  Large Class B share holders (1 million or more shares) are Sheryl Sandberg, David Ebersman, Mike Schroepfer. Theodore Ullyor, Marc Andreesson…

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) owns over 6 million class A shares and affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own over 65.9 million Class A shares.

As of December 31, 2011 there were outstanding:

• 117,097,143 shares of our Class A common stock held by approximately 110 stockholders;
• 1,758,902,390 shares of our Class B common stock held by approximately 1,070 stockholders;
• 258,539,434 shares issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock options;
• 378,772,184 shares subject to outstanding restricted stock units (RSUs).

RISK FACTORS AS FOLLOWS:

• “If we fail to retain existing users or add new users, or if our users decrease their level of engagement with Facebook, our revenue, financial results, and business may be significantly harmed;”
• “We generate a substantial majority of our revenue from advertising. The loss of advertisers, or reduction in spending by advertisers with Facebook, could seriously harm our business;”
• “Growth in use of Facebook through our mobile products, where we do not currently display ads, as a substitute for use on personal computers may negatively affect our revenue and financial results;”
• “Facebook user growth and engagement on mobile devices depend upon effective operation with mobile operating systems, networks, and standards that we do not control;”
• “We may not be successful in our efforts to grow and further monetize the Facebook Platform;”
• “Our business is highly competitive, and competition presents an ongoing threat to the success of our business;”
• “Improper access to or disclosure of our users’ information could harm our reputation and adversely affect our business;”
• “Our business is subject to complex and evolving U.S. and foreign laws and regulations regarding privacy, data protection, and other matters. Many of these laws and regulations are subject to change and uncertain interpretation, and could harm our business;”
• “Our CEO has control over key decision making as a result of his control of a majority of our voting stock;”
• “The loss of Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl K. Sandberg, or other key personnel could harm our business;”
• “We anticipate that we will expend substantial funds in connection with tax withholding and remittance obligations related to the initial settlement of our restricted stock units (RSUs) approximately six months following our initial public offering;”
• “The market price of our Class A common stock may be volatile or may decline, and you may not be able to resell your shares at or above the initial public offering price;”
• “Substantial blocks of our total outstanding shares may be sold into the market as “lock-up” periods end, as further described in “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.” If there are substantial sales of shares of our common stock, the price of our Class A common stock could decline.”

Again, the Top 17 IPOs to Watch in 2012 is here.

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JON C. OGG

The full S-1 SEC FILING is here.  PS… The traffic to the SEC.gov website was severely limited for almost an hour due to excessive traffic flooding the site due to readers wanting to read the Facebook S-1.

Sony named Kazuo Hirai as president and CEO. He replaces Sir Howard Stringer, who has run the corporation since 2005, and over the past seven years has run it into the ground.

Stringer’s biggest mistake has been to stay in two segments of the consumer electronics industry. The first is the manufacturing and marketing of LCD screens, which is a low-margin business, if not a losing one. The other is that Sony continues to make PCs, although there are a number of other PC makers with much larger market share. And, of course, there is the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Mac.

During Stringer’s tenure, he was slow to get a world-class video game console into the market. PS3 sales have not been a disaster, but Sony has allowed its PS2 sales advantage to wither as Nintendo and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) have made market share gains. Whether Hirai’s engineers can upgrade the PS3 enough to take substantial market share, particularly from Microsoft, is an open question. Certainly, the process will be hard.

Stinger also made the odd move of taking over the half of the Sony Ericsson smartphone joint venture that Sony did not already own. Sony Ericsson sits in the market well behind the Apple iPhone, Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and a number of Android-powered products from electronics giant Samsung and nimble operators such as HTC. Even Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) has a better share than Sony Ericsson, which is extraordinary, given the Canadian company’s missteps. Stringer believes that Sony smartphones somehow can be tethered to its content and consumer electronics products. In other words, there is a hidden synergy between Sony’s current businesses and the smartphone company it has taken over in full.

Sony lost its lead in a number of consumer electronics arenas a decade ago. Stringer made the problem worse as Sony’s attempts at innovation failed. Now Hirai has to make Sony a success again, and that is too much to ask of any executive.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The analysis of display advertising market share rarely mentions the tier of sites below the largest ones by audience. Those most likely to be hurt badly, if they have not already been, are the online sites of old-line media companies. The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) has had trouble with its very modest online ad growth. Among sites measure by Comscore, it had 76.4 million unique visitors in December to Facebook’s 152.5 million. And Facebook’s audience continues to grow quickly. The New York Times’ does not. Gannett (NYSE: GCI), which announced earnings yesterday, has confronted the same challenge. Its increase in internet ad revenue last quarter was depressing and hardly enough to offset drops in traditional print advertising. It had 44.1 million unique visitors in December, despite the fact that it owns the giant national newspaper USA Today. Scripps Networks (NYSE: SNI) and the Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) are in a position that is just as difficult.

Facebook has not only started to squeeze out the major portals. It takes an ongoing piece of a market that has thousands of websites in it. This display advertising market, which appeared so promising just a few years ago, is hardly promising at all.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Honda (NYSE: HMC) posts a 65% drop in profits and cuts its outlook because of the yen and Thai floods. (Reuters)

Twenty-five nations, led by Germany, sign a bailout fund agreement. (Reuters)

Honda will launch its first business jet next week. (Reuters)

Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) independent directors agree that the chairman should not be a company executive. (Reuters)

German retail sales fall in December. (Reuters)

The WTO rules against Chinese policies on raw materials, but its rare earth exports are not addressed. (Reuters)

AT&T (NYSE: T) changes the roles of a number of its top managers. (Reuters)

Another director — Larry Babbio Jr. — leaves the Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) board. (Reuters)

New 401(k) rules could help millions of American with savings. (WSJ)

State attorneys general have until the end of the week to join a bank mortgage settlement set by the federal government. (WSJ)

Banco Santander’s (NYSE: STD) profits drop 98% on its real estate holdings. (WSJ)

The vice chairman of Avon Products (NYSE: AVP) loses his job over an overseas bribery probe. (WSJ)

Symphony IRI reports that more shoppers are moving to store brands and away from traditional ones. (WSJ)

RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) shares fall on a profit warning. (WSJ)

Portugal’s borrowing costs rise to euro-area highs. (WSJ)

The Manhattan Institute reports racial segregation reached a 100-year low. (WSJ)

Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ) home broadband efforts compete with Verizon Wireless products. (WSJ)

Groupon’s (NASDAQ: GRPN) CEO defends the value of the company’s shares. (WSJ)

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) moves into India. (WSJ)

Pep Boys goes private. (WSJ)

Comscore reports that Facebook increased its display market share lead over Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). (WSJ)

Many European companies begin to prepare for the economic fallout of a troubled Europe. (WSJ)

Moody’s says it was unaware of balance sheet risks taken by MF Global. (WSJ)

BSkyB will launch an online TV service. (NYT)

The Treasury Department investigates whether Freddie Mac invested based on an inability of some Americans to refinance their homes. (NYT)

A bill to curtail insider trading in Congress advances. (NYT)

EU banks may take loans of as much as $1 trillion because of financial trouble in the region. (FT)

Strong R&D and innovation can extend the life cycles of technology companies. (FT)

Greece is near a confrontation with the European Union over a rescue. (Bloomberg)

German unemployment fell more than expected in January, according to the Federal Labor Agency. (Bloomberg)

Portugal will sell more assets to help with its national debt reduction. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

January 2012 is the first time in memory that two different samples of the T206 Wagner card have been for sale in the same month.  If you have nearly unlimited means, a T206 Wagner can end up in your collection right now.  Another T206 Wagner just sold in early January.

Published reports indicate that there may be 50 to 100 samples of the T206 Honus Wagner that exist, but there may only be around 50 in existence after speaking with industry sources.  A sale of $2.8 million for the “Wayne Gretzky” T206 Honus Wagner in 2007 set a record, and that was after the exact same card had been bought for about $2.35 million earlier that same year. 

The reason this card is so rare is known as Honus Wagner decided to have the American Tobacco Company withdraw his card from the T206 series.  The “why” this card is so rare remains a debate even today.  Only a limited number of this card made it out into the public, or at least only a few which are known to have survived.  In the late 1800s and early 1900s, baseball cards were promotional inserts for cigarettes packs and tobacco packages, as well as made for other products.  They were far from being kids’ bubble gum cards that later generations would come to cherish.

The most common belief is that Wagner was anti-tobacco and did not want his image promoting cigarettes and tobacco products to children.  Maybe, but Maybe not.  This may have simply been a contract dispute over compensation or terms.  Here is the argument for the latter case… Honus Wagner’s image appeared on cigar boxes in some of the same years around the debated time of 1909 to 1911 when the T206 cards were distributed.  Robert Edwards Auctions has auctioned two such cigar boxes in recent years, and the Baseball Almanac shows these images as well.

While most baseball cards rise and fall in value and can be very cyclical, that just has not been the case for a T206 Honus Wagner.  As it turns out, there are millions of people who collect baseball cards and memorabilia or who have collected in their lives.  The Wall Street Journal reported in mid-2011 that there were 3.1 million millionaires in 2010.  And the same report showed over 40,000 in North America worth $30 million or more.  Some of these people are still collectors and there is no greater prize in sports collecting than being able to flaunt a T206 Wagner.

It was not very well covered in the media, but a T206 Honus Wagner from the famed Dreier collection just sold in early January 2012 through Legendary Auctions.  It was graded by PSA, one of the industry-recognized grading services and the grading brand of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT).  It was graded as a “4″ (on a scale of 1 to 10).  This famed T206 Wagner sold for an undisclosed sum.  After speaking with Doug Allen of Legendary, it was a privately negotiated transaction.  Mr. Allen would not disclose the buyer nor could we get an exact price, but he quoted, “The sale was for more than $1.5 million.”  An incredible sum indeed. 

Now there is another sample of the card for sale right now, for a hefty price.  Memory Lane has a “PSA 2″ graded T206 Wagner for sale today for a whopping $775,000.00.  It is even advertised on eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) as item #290661465614.  After speaking with J. P. Cohen of Memory Lane, this is card is on consignment and had previously been for sale at a higher price and the new price is said to be close to where offers came in for this exact card last year.

These two samples are not the only T206 Honus Wagner cards which have been sold in recent times.  A unique sample was a proof strip from the T206 set which actually belonged to Honus Wagner himself.  This was purchased at the Major League Baseball All-Star Auction by SCP Auctions (for an anonymous client) for the sum of $316,250 in 2010.  It was also SCP Auctions Inc. which brokered the record $2.8 million sale mentioned earlier of the prized Gretzky T206 Wagner.