With warnings having started from key leaders in the realm of chip stocks, the question is whether or not you can trust the analysts and the consensus upside.  24/7 Wall St. has gone in and evaluated the leaders in each aspect of the semiconductor sector to see where there is value and where the risks currently lie.  We evaluated the following chip companies: Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC); QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM); Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN); Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM); NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA); Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD); Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM); Freescale Semiconductor Holdings (NYSE: FSL); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT); Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX); and Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR).

In a further effort to show just how much these have sold off, we have shown the moves in the following key semiconductor ETFs: Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: SMH); SPDR S&P Semiconductor (AMEX: XSD); and the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD).  We have also run the same screens in retail, gold and silver miners, conglomerates, industrial giants, and major oil companies with links to those at the end of this article. Here is the screening of value and upside in the chip giants:

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) traded at $26.60 with a market value of $129 billion.  The consensus target price for the king of PC processors from Thomson Reuters is $29.75 and the 52-week trading range is $19.16 to $29.27.  This DJIA component’s most recent yield was listed as 3.2%. Intel’s implied upside to the consensus target is 16% and it is worth noting that the consensus target is just above the 52-week high.

QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) traded at $57.78 with a market value of $99 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $71.92 and the 52-week trading range is $45.98 to $68.87.  The CDMA giant yields about 1.7% after dividend hikes. The implied upside to the consensus target is just under 25% but we would note that the consensus target is still over $3.00 above the 52-week high.

Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN) traded at $29.15 with a market value of $33.4 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $35.80 and the 52-week trading range is $24.34 to $35.30.  The yield here is about 2.3%. TI’s implied upside to the consensus target is just under 23% and that target is still just above its 52-week high.

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) traded at $31.85 with a market value of $17.5 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $43.21 and the 52-week trading range is $27.59 to $39.66.  Broadcom has a paltry yield of only about 1.2%, but its implied upside to the consensus target is about 35%.  Be advised that this consensus target is almost $4.00 above the 52-week high.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades at $12.25 and its market cap is just over $7.5 billion. This graphics processor leader has a consensus target price of $16.64 and the 52-week trading range is $11.47 to $20.05.  NVIDIA pays no dividend and that is something which it should consider changing since it has about $3 billion in cash and liquidity. Its implied upside to the consensus target is about 35% and that consensus target price is well under its 52-week high.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) trades at $6.06 and its market cap is only $4.25 billion despite it being so actively traded. The consensus target price for this distant number-2 in PC processors is $8.55 and the 52-week trading range is $4.31 to $8.71.  AMD has no dividend due to very spotty earnings. Its implied upside to the consensus target is more than 41% if you trust the analysts here and its target price is just under its 52-week high.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) currently trades at $14.15 for its ADR and Yahoo! Finance shows its market value being about $73 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $16.70 and the 52-week trading range is $10.75 to $16.15.  The yield is listed as roughly 2.9%. TSM’s implied upside to the consensus target is 18% and the consensus target is about 4% above the 52-week high.

Freescale Semiconductor Holdings (NYSE: FSL) has been battered since its IPO and shares now trade at $9.75 with an implied market value of $2.4 billion.  This private equity backed chip outfit’s consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is all the way up at $17.92 and the 52-week (less than one-year actually) trading range is $9.43 to $20.97.  Freescale has NO DIVIDEND, which makes it stand out against the peer group now.  Still, if you trust the analysts here the implied upside to the consensus target is a whopping 83%!  Trust is hard to come by here, particularly for a company where backers will sell shares along the way into strength.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) trades around $32.50 and its market value is about $7.9 billion.  The king of flash memory’s consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $44.46 and the 52-week trading range is $31.34 to $53.46.  SanDisk has no current dividend, something which may need to change down the road considering that this is not anywhere close to a new company.  Its implied upside to the consensus target is 37% but the company has had two warnings.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) currently trades at $10.55 and its market value is $13.6 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $13.65 and the 52-week trading range is $9.70 to $13.94.  Applied now yields about 3.4% and its implied upside to the consensus target is about 29%.

Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is worth more than $4.5 billion today but it is acquiring Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) for about $3 billion in stock, so it will soon be larger.  Its shares trade at $38.00, its consensus target price is $48.53 and the 52-week trading range is $34.81 to $48.88.  Lam Research pays NO DIVIDEND now and its implied upside is almost 28%.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) currently trades at $33.90 and its market value is $10.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $41.00 and the 52-week trading range is $30.39 to $48.91.  Altera has a dink yield of only about 1% and we expect a dividend hike in the coming weeks or months. Its implied upside to the consensus target is about 21% and this one is well off highs and the target is almost $8.00 under its 52-week high.

Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: SMH) has undergone a total transformation since it is no longer the Semiconductor HOLDRs.  At $31.25 its range since the change is listed as $28.86 to $36.17.  This ETF is said to have assets of almost $400 million, but that changes based upon inflows and outflows on top of the change in the price.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (AMEX: XSD) ETS is now one of the longest ETF in chips since the HOLDRS changed.  At $43.50 now, its 52-week range is $40.09 to $59.85 and it still has only about $44 million in assets.  This one peaked in January and the mix of components has made it more volatile than many leaders.  This ETF would now have to rally by more than 37% to hit its 52-week high again.

ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD) uses leverage of 2-times for its semiconductor trading, so this is one where it will feel just like getting your fingernails ripped out when your timing is wrong. At $33.50, this leveraged ETF has a 52-week range of $26.18 to $46.46. It would have to rally about 39% to hit its 52-week high again.

As you can see, the semiconductor and chip leaders have now pulled back substantially from their highs seen throughout 2012.  The issue to consider is that Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) have confirmed that PC sales are slowing.  Some of this is due to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some of it is due to weakness in Europe, weak PC spending in the Americas, and a slowing of growth in the BRIC nations.  How the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) launch of Windows 8 will impact the PC refresh cycle ahead is now another wild card since PC sales guidance is looking softer than anticipated from just a couple of weeks ago.

We also want to warn investors to not just blindly trust the analysts in semiconductor price targets here.  Summer can be a brutal time for chip stocks.  The drop in the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD) during the summer of 2011 was about 40% and the drop from the 52-week high in 2011 to that end of summer trough was almost 50%.

The drop in the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: XSD) during the summer of 2011 was about 25%, but the drop from the peak in early 2011 here to the trough of late-summer was about 31%.

Summer is a very tough time to invest in chip stocks, and the question now is just how much the slowdown is going to continue taking out of chip stocks.  We would certainly avoid trying to play the game of trying to catch falling knives here, but these are all worth keeping an eye on for those inflection points where the valuations start to adequately discount the warning signs.

Gold & Silver Miners with the Most Upside Value  

Major Oil Companies with the Most Upside Value

Industrials with the Most Upside Value  

Conglomerates with the Most Upside Value

Retail Stocks with Upside 

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JON C. OGG

When you see a drop of 17% on Dell, you might expect that the volume was 100 million shares or so.  As of 11 AM EST we have still not even seen 40 million shares trade against an average volume of 16.5 million.  The volume is strong, but this feels like the sort of news that would drive 100 million shares.  That being said, Dell traded 51,440,000 shares per NASDAQ trading data on its last earnings report day-after.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is set to report earnings today after the close of trading and estimates are $0.91 EPS and $29.92 billion in sales.  Let’s just say that it is safe to assume that the estimates have unofficially come down significantly.  H-P shares are down 4.6% at $20.77 and this is a new 52-week low.  As a reminder, HP is expected to announce a major round of tech layoffs today as part of its restructuring.

This appears to be the worst trading day in more than a decade for Dell on a percentage drop.  Dell is down 17.1% at $12.50 now and the prior 52-week range is $13.29 to $18.36.  Dell is now probably under 6-times forward earnings estimates after the drop and H-P is roughly the same.  The problem is that no one is willing to pay for contracting earnings power of this sort.  Dell offers no dividend to entice shareholders to stay around, and HP offers at least a yield of about 2.2% based on today’s price.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is down 3.2% at $25.19 and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is down 2.9% at $28.90.

Elsewhere in key PC components, the fallout continues… Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX) is down 2% at $25.81 against a recent high of $32.55 and Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is down 2% at $33.82 against a recent high of $44.44.  We warned investors not to chase those on the last round of good news as it should have been anticipated at the end of 2011 and in the first quarter of this year.  It may seem a bit of a surprise, but the US king of DRAM via Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is down only 0.2% at $5.70 because it is already down so much from the highs of $10.23 over the last year.

It goes without saying… wrecking balls swing back and forth, and the damage is severe.  Dell has become technology’s wrecking ball and having a ”LOW P/E VALUATION” is about as relevant as gold to a dead man today.

JON C. OGG

A report at Reuters names South Korea’s SK Hynix and US chip maker GlobalFoundries as two firms the unhappy bondholders have begun discussions with. At the time that Micron was declared the winning bidder, the only other competitor was a combined bid from two Japanese private equity firms.

If a couple of private equity firms think that Elpida is worth less than Micron thinks it’s worth, then it doesn’t make a lot of sense to believe that either Hynix or GlobalFoundries will think Elpida is worth more. Elpida’s debt is more than double the price Micron has offered to pay, so it’s no surprise that the bondholders want to smoke out a higher bid. At best they’re probably hoping to get another bid that is slightly better than Micron’s in the hope that Micron will bid again. Another possibility is that one of the private equity firms will take part with one of the chip makers, lowering the amount of capital at risk, but likely to muddy the waters over who’s in charge and what the strategy should be going forward.

Micron’s shares are up 0.8% in the pre-market, at $5.67 in a 52-week range of $3.97-$10.23.

Paul Ausick

Angie’s List, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGI) Started as Outperform at Raymond James.

Bankrate, Inc. (NYSE: RATE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Started as Sell at Maxim.

Las Vegas Sands Corporation (NYSE: LVS) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Reiterated Buy with $135 target at Canaccord Genuity.

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Raised to Buy at UBS.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) Started as Buy at UBS.

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Reiterated Buy with $180 target at Canaccord Genuity.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.

Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim.

Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP) Cut to Hold at Argus.

Yelp, Inc. (NYSE: YELP) Started as Market Perform at Raymond James.

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JON C. OGG

The carnage is particularly severe in a few sectors.

News that JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) fired its chief investment officer reminded investors of how badly risk is managed at large banks. JPM has taken a $2 billion write-off its London traders took. JPM is down 2.81% to $35.90.Back of America (NYSE: BAC) is down 2% on similar sentiment about risk to $7.39, and Citigroup (NYSE: C) is down 2%. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is down 3.4%. Its debt will probably be downgraded this summer, according to a number of sources.

Several tech stock were hurt by worry of a slowing economy in Europe, and perhaps Asia. These include Symantac (NASDAQ: SYMC), Micron (NASDAQ: MU), Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). The sell off in Clearwire is more because of debt than overseas exposure.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) is only up 1.4% on news it sacked and replaced its CEO. Markets probably assume that its trouble goes well beyond a replacement of management. Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) fired its chairman and founder because he helped cover-up a relationship the electronics firm’s CEO has with another employee. Best Buy shares are up less than 1%

Douglas A. McIntyre

Analyst Vijay Rakesh noted, “1) Muted reaction pending more clarity on the final amount that MU will pay, and 2) Based on that if MU needs to come to market for any additional financing. Nonetheless we would be buyers with MU paying only 30-35c or less per dollar for the deal… We believe some of the muted reaction is because of no Official comments thus far and investors waiting to see how much the deals ends up to be.”

Whether the deal comes to $2 billion or $2.5 billion, Stern Agee’s note is talking up the Hiroshima fabrication plant with 120,000 wafers per month of 30nm/300mm manufacturing and 64% ownership in the Rexchip fab, as well as the Akito Elpida Back end Packaging and 3 to 4 design centers.  The assets were carried on Elpida’s books at about $7 billion but the firm’s take is that the assets with Elpida’s Memory intellectual property is worth more than $7 billion.  If so, then Micron is paying thirty to thirty-five cents on the dollar or even less if the deal includes future Potential Capex for Elpida.

Stern Agee concludes, “Given the pace of negotiations, we believe the deal should be accretive L-T and drive consolidation, price stability and profitability in the DRAM marketplace.”

Micron shares are trading up $0.03 at $6.53 on first look and the 52-week trading range is $3.97 to $10.93.

JON C. OGG

Elpida filed for bankruptcy in February, and at that time Micron and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) were said to be in the running to acquire the company. Micron reportedly made an offer of $1.5 billion at the time.

If the report is accurate, Micron may have found one way to keep DRAM prices from falling even more as well as a way to keep up in the race to integrate CPU, GPU, NAND flash and mobile DRAM chips onto a single chip.

Micron’s shares are up about 4.5% after a half-hour of trading this morning, at $6.76 in a 52-week range of $3.97-$11.13.

Paul Ausick

Apple shares are up over $56.00 at $616.74 on last look and we have already seen more  than 1 million shares trade in the pre-market with well over an hour until the open.  Here are some of the moves in the Apple component players:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is up over 1% at $7.40 on thin volume.   Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) is up 4.6% at $34.42.

LSI Corporation (NYSE: LSI) is indicated up around $8.10 to $8.20 (+1% to +2%) after an $8.03 close.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is down 2.2% at $15.31.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is up 1.5% at $6.61.

NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ: NXPI) is indicated up about 1% after getting a CNBC tout as a growing Apple supplier for the next generation chips.

Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 2.5% at $63.41.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) has warned twice in recent weeks but it is getting some love as well with a gain of 1.7% at $37.10.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) is up 7% at $25.60.

TriQuint Semiconductor Inc. (NASDAQ: TQNT) is up 10% at $5.67.

When one stock goes up, everyone looks at the other plays out there that benefit too.  When Apple is so big, it leaves a lot of room for growth.

JON C. OGG

Micron’s shares are down about -4.2% at $6.71 in a 52-week range of $3.97-$11.83. Micron’s NAND Flash memory business was expected to get a boost from the release of Ultrabook laptop computers from a number of makers later this year. Sandisk, too, was expecting some help from the Ultrabook releases, but the company’s guidance put a halt to that.

Broadcom and Nvidia are also feeling the effects of Sandisk’s earnings report, but not to the same degree as Micron. Broadcom’s shares are down 1.4% at $35.23 in a 52-week range of $27.59-$41.00, and Nvidia’s shares are off -0.4% at $13.60 in a 52-week range of $11.47-$20.52.

Only Qualcomm is dodging Sandisk’s bullet, up nearly 1% at $63.16 in a 52-week range of $45.98-$68.87. The company is simply better positioned in the mobile device market than any of the others, primarily because of its role as a supplier to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Paul Ausick

Maybe you can blame the less robust economic data or maybe you can still try to claim that no more QE from Ben Bernanke and friends is the reason.  SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) is down 8.7% at $45.68 against a 52-week range of $32.24 to $53.46.  With a close of $50.05 yesterday, the fears were not very evident in the share price that weak pricing and demand were both there in flash memory.  The price action in the Apple component supplier list below is uniform:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is down 3% at $7.74.

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is down 1.8% at $38.39.

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) is down 2.5% at $37.21.

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: CY) is down 2.2% at $14.70.

Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE: FCS) is down 3.2% at $14.10.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is down 2.2% at $15.31.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is down 5.7% at $7.54.

LSI Corporation (NYSE: LSI) is down 3.4% at $8.48.

ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: ONNN) is down 2.8% at $8.47.

Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is down 1.4% at $67.20.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) is down 4.5% at $26.29.

TriQuint Semiconductor Inc. (NASDAQ: TQNT) is down 3.5% at $6.32.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is down only 1.2% at $721.75 but investors have been used to it rising just about every day as analysts take their consensus price targets higher and higher.  The news from SanDisk was bad, but at least the spillover and run-off is not bleeding some of the larger players in the Apple and technology ecosphere too bad.

JON C. OGG