Posts for Ticker ‘MUR’

Ida: The Hurricaneless Hurricane (OIH, USO, OIL, MUR, MRO, RDS, CVX, XOM)

IDA ImageOil and gas companies have closed or winding down many US Gulf operations ahead of a very late in the year Hurricane Ida.  The weekend reports had this one dissipating then the reports early this morning had this making landfall as a tropical storm with [a possibility of it being hurricane.  This morning Ida became a tropical storm again at the National Hurricane Center.  In order to not have to out-guess ahead of time which companies will be least or most impacted had this been a full hurricane at the time it met rigs and the coast, we looked at the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data.  While the infrastructure is now not as likely to be hit as hard and while a tropical storm is far less of a threat than a hurricane, NYMEX WTI Crude is actually still up $1.78 at $79.21 as of 10:13 AM EST.
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Posted on: November 9, 2009 – 10:27 am in Commodities, Oil & Gas, , , , , , , ,

At $70 Oil, Major Oil Stocks Still Look Cheap (COP, XOM, CVX, MUR, PBR, PTR, VLO)

oil-well-image1We keep getting asked a single question from readers and from our own industry and professional contacts: Are Oil Stocks Cheap? There is a very simple answer in today’s markets: Oil stocks look very cheap (if oil is going to stay anywhere near $70.00).  Some of these are our top picks and some are incidental, but the reviewed stocks are ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR), Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO).  By our measure, some of these major integrated oil and exploration and production stocks are undervalued by 10% to 25%.  Some may be even more undervalued than that in the large-cap and super-cap arenas.

Answering any question of whether a stock or any instrument is cheap does actually require a crystal ball that sees the future for it to be certain beyond a snapshot in time, but if oil stays around these levels then many of the major oil stocks still seem to have more room to run up.  Dare we call this value investing?  This is not a review of every single sector in the oil patch, as we are reviewing these stocks  in groups.
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Posted on: June 12, 2009 – 5:15 am in ADR, Buffett, Emerging Markets, Oil & Gas, Value Investing, , , , , , ,

Oil Companies & Earnings, Up & Down (MUR, HES, COP)

Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE:MUR), like other oil companies has been hit hard by declining oil prices. Yesterday, the company posted EPS of $0.83 for the quarter, down from $1.07 EPS a year earlier. Analysts had been expecting EPS of $0.78.

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Posted on: January 29, 2009 – 10:26 am in Earnings, Oil & Gas, , ,

Exxon & Big Oil Actually Like Low Oil Prices (XOM, RDS.A, MUR)

Exxon_logoIt may be a stretch to say that oil companies actually like lower oil prices, but these oil companies keep posting great earnings even though oil has fallen from north of $140/barrel in June to the $60’s in October.  Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) announced record earnings excluding special items for the third quarter of $13.38 billion (EPS of $2.59). Its chairman credited the company’s "disciplined business approach" for the record quarter. 

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Posted on: October 30, 2008 – 8:31 am in Earnings, Oil & Gas, , ,

Goldman Sachs Hits Oil Sector (BHI, EP, XOM, KMP, MMP, EPB, MRO, MUR, KGS, SLB)

Goldman_sachs_logoOil_well_logo_2_2In a perhaps late research call in the oilpatch, Goldman Sachs has downgraded the exploration & production sector to Neutral from attractive and downgraded the oil services sector to Neutral from Attractive.  Interestingly enough. in all of the downgrades for these sub-sectors there are actually some upgrades in the group.  Below are some of these top calls in the sector from Goldman Sachs:

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Posted on: October 13, 2008 – 6:00 am in Analyst Calls, Oil & Gas, , , , , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (AKAM, CVLT, JNPR, LVS, MUR, N, PDX)

These are some of the early analyst downgrades we have seen this Thursday morning:

  • Akamai Tech (AKAM) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • CommVault Systems (CVLT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Juniper Networks (JNPR) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Murphy Oil (MUR) Cut to Underperform at Merrill Lynch.
  • NetSuite (N) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Pediatrix Medical (PDX) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan; Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Jon C. Ogg
October 2, 2008

Posted on: October 2, 2008 – 6:38 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ABH, ETN, HES, LECO, LPX, MVSN, MUR, NVO, SWS, WBS)

These are not all of the analyst calls affecting shares this morning, but these are ten that we are focusing on this Monday morning:

  • AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) started as Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Hess (NYSE: HES) Added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List.
  • Lincoln Electric (NASDAQ: LECO) started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
  • Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE: LPX) started as Underperform at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Macrovision (NASDAQ: MVSN) raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray.
  • Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) cut to Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Novo-Nordisk AS (NYSE: NVO) raised to Neutral at HSBC Securities.
  • SWS Group (NYSE: SWS) started as Market Perform at KBW.
  • Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) raised to Outperform at KBW.

Jon C. Ogg
June 9, 2008

Posted on: June 9, 2008 – 6:33 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Up & Down the Oil & Energy Patch (CVX, DUK, PTEN, PXD, MUR)

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) reported earnings of $5.17 billion and $2.48 EPS for the first quarter of 2008.  First Call had estimates at $2.41 EPS. This compared with $4.72 billion and $2.18 EPS for the same period a year ago. Revenues jumped to $65.95 billion, up about 38% from $48.23 billion. Analysts were looking for revenues of $75.64 billion and $2.41 EPS. Refining earnings dropped from $1.62 billion to $252 million, due to higher crude oil costs and lower refining margins. It’s a repeat of the same story from all the integrated oil companies. CVX stock is up almost 1% at $95.80 in pre-open trading.

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) may be more of an electricity play, but when you look at its break-down you will understand why it’s included in energy stocks this morning.  It is trading up over 3% after earnings of $465 million or $0.35 EPS, compared to $0.30 EPS a year ago and compared to First Call estimates of $0.31. Revenues grew 9% to $3.337 billion, and First Call had estimates at $3.25 billion. 

Even though Duke’s numbers beat the estimates, it took an accounting change to make it happen. Duke changed the way it accounts for the impact of mark-to-market hedges in its Commercial Power segment. Beginning in the 2008 first quarter, the company will exclude its commodity hedging from earnings. Adjusted earnings, compared with the first quarter of 2007, is exactly $0.05/share. So, EPS is flat compared with last year, and 70% of the earnings boost is attributable to this exclusion. The company reiterated its guidance for $1.27 EPS in 2008.

Elsewhere, analysts have made a few calls regarding the oil and energy stocks this morning with calls in Patterson-UTI (NASDAQ: PTEN), Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD), and Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR):

  • Patterson-UTI (NASDAQ: PTEN) was raised by Credit Suisse, although the prior "Underperform" rating was raised only to a Neutral.
  • Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD), in the exploration and production of oil and gas, was also raised to a Buy from a Hold rating over at Deutsche Bank.
  • Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) was downgraded this morning over at Bernstein’s research department.  Its prior "Outperform" rating was given a new "Market Perform" rating.

Paul Ausick
May 2, 2008

Posted on: May 2, 2008 – 8:11 am in Oil & Gas, , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (DRIV, ISIL, MUR, NAPS, BTU, RNWK, SINA, URI, VVUS, YRCW)

These are not the only impacting analyst calls this morning, but these are most of the initial calls being focused on by 247WallSt.com:

  • Digital River (DRIV) raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Intersil (ISIL) raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • Murphy Oil (MUR) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • Napster (NAPS) started as an "Underperform" at Bear Stearns.
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch.
  • Real Networks (RNWK) started as Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • Sina (SINA) raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • United Rentals (URI)  raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • Vivus (VVUS) started as Overweight at J.P.Morgan.
  • YRC Worldwide (YRCW) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
January 3, 2008

Posted on: January 3, 2008 – 7:45 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (September 24, 2007)

ARBA raised to Outperform at Cowen & Co.
BCS cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns.
BEC cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CREE cut to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan.
EMC raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
EMC raised to Buy ai Citigroup.
HOLX started as Outperform at CIBC.
LDK cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
MOT raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
MUR started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
OPTM raised to Buy at Jefferies.
RHT cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
ROK cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
RS cut to Neutral at UBS.
SIRT cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
SLG raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
SUSS raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
TKR started as Buy at Citigroup.
VMW full coverage available here, and here was the preview to the quiet period ending.
VR started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
VR started as BUy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
September 24, 2007

Posted on: September 24, 2007 – 6:58 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs Major Oil Changes (APA, FST, KWK, KGS, EP, XOM, FTO, HES, MUR, OXY, CVX)

Goldman Sachs this morning made some significant "Super-Spike" era calls where it said oil could reach $135 per barrel and noted up to $4.50 per gallon of gasoline at the pump for you and me, although its actual base targets are not at that level.  It has hiked integrated oil earnings estimates and maintaining "Attractive Ratings" on the sector to include exploration and production.  2008 and 2009 estimates have been raised for oil services and deepwater drillers, and made the following price base price assumptions for oil per barrel and natural gas ($/MMBtu):

  • 2008 $80.00/$8.50
  • 2009 $90.00/$10.00
  • 2010 $80.00/$8.50
  • 2011 $75.00/$7.50

Oil Services estimates raised 6% in 2008 and 16% 2009.  Estimates unchanged for offshore drillers due to high contract coverage in deepwater markets and increasing uncontracted supply in the shallow water market.  Increased price targets by 7% on average for oil service stocks and by 5% on average for deepwater levered drillers.

Even after Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA) was raised to Buy last week, Goldman Sachs is adding it to the CONVICTION BUY LIST, replaces Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE:FST) on the list.

Quicksilver Resources (NYSE:KWK) continued as Buy/Attractive as performed well since announcing asset sales last week.

QuickSilver Gas Services L.P. (KGS) started as Buy with a $27 target over 12 months.

Other estimates increased (partial list): El Paso (EP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Frontier Oil (FTO), Hess (HES), Marathon Oil (MRO), Murphy Oil (MUR), Newfield Exploration (NFX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Petro-Canada (PCZ), Suncor Energy (SU), Sunoco (SUN), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Chevron (CVX), Apache (APA).

Jon C. Ogg
September 17, 2007

Posted on: September 17, 2007 – 8:05 am in Analyst Calls, Oil & Gas, , , , , , , , , , ,