Total July sales of cars and light trucks are expected to reach 1.17 million vehicles, 10.6% higher than in July 2011. The forecast is -8.8% lower than June 2012 unadjusted sales.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) lead the market share forecast for July with 18.4%, 15.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. Chrysler gets 10.9% share, followed by Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) with a 9.9% share, Hyundai/Kia with a 9.5% share, and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY.PK) with an 8.1% share. Volkswagen AG rounds out the top eight with a 1% share.

Industry-wide incentive spending has fallen by -3.7% month-over-month, and by -5.8% year-over-year. Only Honda showed a year-over-year incentive spending increase, and that a whopping 12.8% jump.

Truecar’s vice-president of market intelligence noted:

The pace of new vehicle sales remained steady in July despite the mixed economic news, helped by the compelling selection of vehicles and highly optimized incentive programs. The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.

The truecar.com data is available here.

Paul Ausick

Today, A123 announced a new battery technology it calls Nanophosphate EXT, which the company says eliminates the need for costly and heavy temperature-control equipment on batteries for hybrid and micro-hybrid electric vehicles. All-electric cars like the Chevy Volt from General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), the all-electric version of the Prius from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) the Leaf from Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY), the Focus Electric from Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), and the vehicles from Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) get a generic wave in the company’s press announcement, but the micro-hybrid market is what A123 is targeting. Johnson Controls and Maxwell are among the key players here.

Micro-hybrid is a fancy new name for cars that incorporate new stop-start technology that shuts off a car’s engine when the car is stopped and restarts it automatically when the driver steps on the gas again. A123, Exide, and Johnson are all making batteries that can absorb this kind of punishment, while Maxwell is attacking the problem with what the company calls ultra-capacitors. Either system improves gasoline mileage by anywhere from 5%-10%.

The global market for micro-hybrid vehicles is expected to swell to more than 39 million vehicles by 2017, and the energy storage devices market is expected to reach $6.9 billion according to A123. The advantages micro-hybrids hold over all-electric technology, for example, are no requirement for special charging stations, far less use of scarce resources like lithium, and much lower cost. From a car-makers point of view, the possible impact on sales is negligible from micro-hybrids because the technology is both cheap and nearly invisible to buyers who don’t have to adapt to a whole new kind of car.

A123 shares have jumped 50% just before noon today, to $1.56 in a 52-week range of $0.82-$5.91. Share prices have been hit hard by a recall of defective battery packs and an explosion in a lab that was testing one of the company’s battery packs. More than 16 million shares have traded hands so far this morning, about 8x normal volume.

Paul Ausick

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC), now fully recovered from the effects of last year’s earthquake and tsunami have sharply increased shipments to dealers. Toyota’s sales are double the company’s total from a year ago, and Honda’s sales are up 92%. General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) reported sales up 21% in May and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) said sales of passenger cars rose 23%. Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY) sales jumped 20%, and Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY) reported that sales of its upscale Audi brand rose nearly 14%.

But those are shipments to dealers, who have no choice but to take the cars whether they are selling them or not. According to a report at Bloomberg, average inventory at Chinese dealerships now exceeds 60 days, up from more than 45 days at the end of April. Shipments to dealers are up 16% compared with May 2011 and for the first 5 months of this year shipments are up about 5.5%, to 6.33 million units.

Automakers expect the recent cut in interest rates and the reinstatement of government incentives to boost consumer demand. But carmakers are going to have to give dealers some help pretty soon, either in the form of incentives or lower shipments. Stacking up more cars on dealer lots can only improve sales figures for so long.

Paul Ausick

When A123 filed its “going concern” notice, it also said that it was “actively engaged in discussions with strategic partners for substantial investments in the Company.” Perhaps such an investment is at hand, but there was no mention of that in today’s announcement. A123 has contracts to build lithium-ion batteries for General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Fisker Automotive, and BMW. The company also received a federal loan to build a new plant to make batteries for the Leaf from Nissan Motor Company Ltd. (OTC: NSANY).

Whether or not A123 is getting any kind of cash infusion from a strategic investor is likely to determine the fate of the company. Absent a sugar daddy, the company simply appears to be too weak to survive. Hiring more people it can’t afford to pay out of operating revenues is not a solution.

Shares of A123 are up about 1% at $1.00 in a 52-week range of $0.82-$5.91. Volume is thin, though, at about 450,000 shares traded compared with average daily volume of 2.9 million.

Paul Ausick

Total sales of cars and light trucks are expected to reach 1.196 million vehicles, 3.4% higher than in April 2011. Truecar.com does not provide a comparison with the adjusted rate for April, but does show that March’s unadjusted sales were 14.8% higher than April’s adjusted rate. For what that’s worth.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) lead the market share forecast for April with, 17.5%, 15.2%, and 15.3%, respectively. Chrysler gets 11.5% share, followed by Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) with a 9.6% share, Hyundai/Kia with a 9.4% share, and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY.PK) with a 7.3% share. Volkswagen AG rounds out the top eight with a 3.6% share.

Industry-wide incentive spending has fallen by -4.7% month-over-month, but risen 5.6% year-over-year. The largest year-over-year incentive increases came from Nissan and Volkswagen, while Hyundai/Kia and Toyota are the only two makers to show lower incentives this year.

It appears that Toyota has completely overcome the marketing and public relations disaster it suffered a couple of years ago and the shortages caused by last year’s earthquake and tsunami. The other noteworthy item is Chrysler’s market share growth year-over-year, from 10.1% to 11.5%. Ford, GM, and Honda all lost share over the period, and only Toyota’s share gain was larger than Chrysler’s.

The truecar.com data is available here.

Paul Ausick

The company is taking advantage of the burst of new car sales in the first quarter. US sales have jumped to an annual rate of 14.5 million new cars. Total retail sales for all US auto dealerships rose 7% in the first quarter, while AutoNation’s sales of new cars rose 10%. Other national auto dealers, like America’s CarMart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) primarily sell used cars.

AutoNation’s unit sales in the first quarter rose 13% year-over-year, up 16% in domestic models, 6% in imports, and 14% in luxury models. The domestic category includes vehicles built by Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), and Chrysler. The import category includes vehicles from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM), Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE: HMC), and Nissan Motor Corp. (OTC: NSANY.PK). Luxury models includes cars from Mercedes, BMW, and Toyota’s Lexus brand.

AutoNation could be positioned better going forward than its used car rivals CarMax and America’s CarMart, both of which attracted more cash-strapped buyers during the recession. But used car inventories are falling, prices are rising, and new car dealers are pricing their trade-ins more agressively.

AutoNation shares are up only 0.22% in pre-market trading this morning, at $33.65 in a 52-week range of $30.46-$41.55.

Paul Ausick

The male preference for SUVs and light trucks gives a boost to US carmakers like General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), while female preferences show up in sales of cars made by Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM), Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE: HMC), Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY.PK), Kia Motors Corp. (OTC: KIMTF.PK), Mazda Motor Corp. (OTC: MZDAF.PK), Suzuki Motor Corp. (OTC: SZKMF), Subaru, Mitsubishi, and Hyundai.

The data from truecar is reported by brand sales and model sales. For example, men purchase 88.2% of all Porsche 911s sold and women purchase 57.9% of all Volvo S40s. Men purchase 87.5% of all GMC Sierra pickups and 87% of all Ford F-Series pickups sold. The most popular SUV among women buyers is the Nissan Rogue, nearly 57% of which are purchased by women.

Of the top 20 brands purchased by women, 16 were imports, and of the top 20 brands purchased by men, 13 were either exotic or luxury brands.

The press release from truecar.com is available here.

Paul Ausick

That requirement apparently does not concern Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY) which has announced today that it has received approval from the Chinese government to sell its all-electric Nissan Leaf in China. The Leaf will be exported from Japan, not built in China, although that is Nissan’s long-term goal.

China offers substantial subsidies to purchasers of electric cars, and the country is Nissan’s largest market. In 2010 the company sold 1.3 million cars in China and it hopes to boost that number to 2.3 million by 2015. The Nissan Leaf, and a planned cheaper all-electric model targeted at the Chinese market, are clearly in Nissan’s plans to reach that total.

But demand for the all-electric cars in China has been cool, to say the least.  BYD Co. (OTC: BYDDF) has sold fewer than 500 all-electric models in the country so far in 2011. For a country where 17 million cars are expected to be sold this year, that’s not exactly thrilling.

The all-electric models are all still too expensive, not just for the Chinese, but for everyone. Until battery costs fall significantly, only a relative handful of buyers will queue up for an all-electric.

Far more effective in meeting emissions and fuel economy goals are the relatively cheaper and more effective changes being introduced on conventional internal combustion-powered cars. Automakers want to sell the electric cars because the cars’ zero-emissions ratings and unlimited miles/gallon of gasoline boost overall fleet ratings. Without electric cars, automakers will have difficulty meeting new US economy standards of 54.5 miles/gallon by 2025.

Improvements to auto aerodynamics and turbocharged engines, coupled with stop/start technology and regenerative braking are all likely to have a bigger fleet impact on auto emissions and fuel economy than the number of all-electric cars an automaker sells. Still, every sale helps, and going after the world’s largest car market with a heavily subsidized all-electric is probably good insurance for Nissan.

Paul Ausick

Sales in Japan accounted for 5.5 million units in 2010, with 19 of the top 20 selling models going to these three companies. What are the prospects for new car sales in Japan for 2011?

Production has stopped at many of Japan’s major manufacturers as the facilities are inspected for quake-related damage and electrical power shortages. But that’s not the big problem. The Japanese will sort this out in due time.

The big problem is buyers. Added to the cost of rebuilding the country’s shattered infrastructure, the threat of radioactive material spreading over the country will likely make potential buyers think twice or three times before heading out to browse auto showrooms.

The availability of credit for auto purchases could also be restricted as the country’s banks are called upon to help finance rebuilding efforts. Buying new cars on credit could simply get too expensive.

Many car makers are preparing to re-start operations as soon as next week, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. Parts suppliers, too, need to get back into production quickly in order to supply parts for the just-in-time manufacturing processes that the auto makers rely on.

Having the auto makers and parts suppliers back on-line quickly will minimize lost sales around the globe. What impact it will have on domestic sales in Japan is much less problematic.

Paul Ausick