ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) Added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs; Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) maintained Buy but removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

CafePress Inc. (NASDAQ: PRSS) Started as Buy at Janney

CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Dril-Quip, Inc. (NYSE: DRQ) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) Reiterated Outperform with $22 target at Credit Suisse.

Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) Raised to Overweight at Evercore.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Reiterated Buy with $39 target at Argus.

Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NSM) Started as Outperform with $20 target at Credit Suisse; Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo; Started as Buy with $18 target at BofA/ML.

priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $811 at Credit Suisse.

Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $146 at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

Read the best performing stocks for 2011
Read the worst performing stocks for 2011

We have become comfortable, however, with the routine of the calendar.  A six month period is as good as any.

The yardstick for the period is the change in the S&P 500, which was up by 4% in the first six months. The market collapsed in mid-March and rallied into May. The index was nearly flat in June.

Some of the most interesting stocks are those that did not make the lists of best and worst performers, but would have if it were not for a percentage point or two. Ford (NYSE: F), one of the great turnarounds of the last decade, was down 20% in the first half. Its extraordinary gains of the last two years gave way as gas prices rose and consumer sentiment faltered. Target (NYSE: TGT), Wal-Mart’s (NYSE: TGT) most aggressive competitor, was down 23%. The retailer spent as if the recession was over, but its sales did not support this plan.

On the brighter side, Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) was up 41%. The credit rating firm was partially blamed for the credit crisis. It blessed pools of mortgage-backed securities that were actually risky investments. It still faces the possibility of government sanctions, which could curtail its future earnings. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), once part of McDonald’s (NYSE MCD), posted earnings that showed people could afford to have inexpensive meals out, even if the economy is slow.

TI specifically noted that the recent earthquakes and tsunami in Japan, disruptions and increased costs of production, disruptions in its supply chain, and reduced or delayed demand from customers “could cause actual results to differ from the expectations of TI or its management.”  In short, several issues at once hit.  Mostly, it is Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) after its warning… Too bad Nokia’s problems are not short-lived.

Revenue was guided down to $3.36 billion to $3.5 billion, down from a prior range of $3.41 billion to $3.69 billion.  Earnings were guided down to $0.51 to $0.55 versus a prior range of $0.52 to $0.60.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.57 EPS and $3.55 billion in revenues.  As a reminder, when companies lower guidance for one quarter, analysts automatically trim the yearly estimates by the same amount (if not more for later quarters).

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) closed down 1.8% at $32.67 and shares are down almost 5% at $31.12 in the after-hours session.  National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) is only down a couple cents at $24.57 since it is being acquired.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is trying more and more to get into mobile chips and its shares fell 1% today and are down another 0.5% at $21.71 in the after-hours.  Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) was down 1% today and its shares are down 0.4% at $33.76 in the after-hours.  The big drop where TI has a big weighting is in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH), where shares fell 2.1% to $33.55 today and where shares are down another 0.5% at $33.08 in the after-hours against a 52-week range of $24.14 to $36.99.

JON C. OGG

We have added in Thomson Reuters estimates, added in price action, and added in color if appropriate on each. As a reminder, some of the days and estimates could have changed, and many may change before the actual reports.

Fuelcell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) is due on Monday and this one has been a disaster in alternative energy.  We do not even care about the losses nor do we interpret anything that the company says as being a sector-moving event. All that matters is whether or not the company can reach profits by 2013 or so.

The Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack (NYSE: PBY) is just one more auto parts company with earnings, but it is one which some investors are hoping is a buyout.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.30 EPS and $537.03 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.25 EPS and $534.44 million in revenues.  With shares around $13.60, the 52-week range is $7.86 to $15.96.

Thor Industries Inc. (NYSE: THO) is not about the movie, but it is about RVs. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.67 EPS and $848.92 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.83 EPS and $869.73 million in revenues.  With shares around $31.00, the 52-week range is $20.74 to $39.12.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is due on Tuesday and we are not expecting anything of any merit other than from “other operations” as housing data just stinks now.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.51 EPS and $263 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are -$0.38 EPS and $341.35 million in revenues.  With shares around $2.46, the 52-week range is $2.31 to $6.19.

Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) is due Wednesday and the equipment maker could have some very volatile shares as traders will have very little else to focus on.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.10 EPS and $428.1 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.06 EPS and $456.42 million in revenues.  With shares around $25.30, the 52-week range is $11.86 to $29.24.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is due next Thursday and it has been impossible to not notice that the chart is becoming strained after a monster run up in the yoga and athletic-wear retailer.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.38 EPS and $180.91 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.40 EPS and $196.95 million in revenues.  With shares around $87.25, the 52-week range is $31.08 to $102.83.  We do not expect that investors will be happy with a “meet and reaffirm guidance” quarter.  As a reminder, we saw this as one of the top analyst calls of last week based upon its chart and valuation.

National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) is due next Thursday and we want to remind that this is only being evaluated for the Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) angle. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.27 EPS and $365.15 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.29 EPS and $374.9 million in revenues.

Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR) is due with earnings next Friday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.33 EPS and $242.89 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.38 EPS and $253.9 million in revenues.  With shares around $21.57, the 52-week range is $11.98 to $46.09.  Keep in mind that this one got killed last quarter as shares fell from $40 to $25 and its shares have traded in a range of $21 to $25 almost ever since.

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JON C. OGG

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
Carefusion Corporation (NYSE: CFN) Cut to Neutral but kept $30 target at BofA/ML.
Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ: COLM) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
DryShips, Inc. (NYSE: DRYS) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Energizer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ENR) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IDIX) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Jack In The Box. Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Magellan Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGLN) Started as Underperform and $50 target at BofA/ML.
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; Cut to Neutral at Gleacher.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
SPX Corporation (NYSE: SPW) Started as Outperform with $100 target at Credit Suisse.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
V.F. Corporation (NYSE: VFC) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks. 

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more. 

JON C. OGG

Data and ranking provided by the Flame Index.

National Semi last traded at $25 in late 2007. Its share price is down more than 50% in the last five years. Texas Instrument’s shares are flat over the same period which means it has done no better than the S&P 500.

The reason National Semi’s stock is down so much is the reason that TI should not have bought the company. National Semi revenue in its 2005/2006 fiscal year was $2.2 billion. Last year that number was $1.4 billion. Over the same time, net income has fallen from $449 million to $209 million. There is barely a bright spot in any of the years in between.

The argument that TI management has made in favor of the transaction is that the two companies are in nearly the same business. That is an often-used excuse. Synergy allows merged tech companies to cut R&D costs, lower administrative expenses, and use one sales force to handle an array of products. The same theory was used to justify the merger of Alcatel and Lucent. It took five years for the combined company to emerge from the disaster. The same can also be said of AMD’s (NYSE: AMD) buyout of ATI which nearly destroyed that company and the Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) acquisition of Compaq. The list beyond these examples is fairly long.

It is not mentioned often enough that firms like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) do very few acquisitions. They stick to their knitting as some management consultants say is best practice. Advocates of tech deals point to Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) as remarkably successful in the buyout game. For each of these there are ten companies which have not done as well. A small sample of remarkably well-run firms is hardly a justification for the risk that a mediocre corporation like TI has taken on.

History is against the TI buyout of National Semi and so is the competence of TI’s management, at least as far as the stock market says

Douglas A. McIntyre

The all-cash merger comes to about $6.5 billion.  For National Semiconductor holders that will translate to a buyout price of $25.00 per share.  Both companies have approved the deal at the Board of Directors level and if this deal was reflected in National Semiconductor stock then we’d ask about why National Semi was down on the day.  National Semi shares closed down 1.1% at $14.07 in regular trading and its 52-week trading range is $11.84 to $16.00.  Some may wonder if Texas Instruments is having to overpay for this one or not.  The last time National Semi shares were at $25.00 was back in 2007.

This deal is likely to eliminate the cloud that has hung over semiconductor shares.  We showed some technical analysis just on Friday showing how the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH) ETF was acting extremely poor ahead of earnings season.  The secondary beneficiary here is perhaps Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) with its $11.5 billion market cap as its shares closed down 1.7% at $38.50 in regular trading  and rose above $40.50 in the after-hours market.

One rumor or guess which has been in the market for about as long as memory serves is a Altera-Xilinx merger.  Altera Corporation had a $13.6 billion market cap at the close and its shares are up 2.8% at $43.72 in the after-hours session.  Xilinx Inc. (NASDAQ: XLNX) had a $8.3 billion market cap at the close and its shares are indicated up more than 1% at $32.35 in the after-hours session.

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is up by 2% at $11.42 in the after-hours session versus a 52-week trading range of $6.36 to $11.95.  Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE: FCS) is up 5% at $18.60 in the after-hours and its closing market cap was $2.23 billion.  Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) is up 3.7% at $34.30 in the after-hours session and its closing market cap was about $7.5 billion.

The TI-National Semi merger aims to combine two of the industry giants in analog semiconductors for the world of electronic systems.  TI has larger scale and a larger portfolio, National Semi is likely to be much more profitable inside TI than on its own.

TI and National Semi are both halted after the close, but this merger here will either drive other mergers or it will at least drive traders to speculating on which other mergers could be seen.  We’d like to congratulate both companies on keeping this one secret.  Most chips had been weak and remained weak even today ahead of the merger, and we did not even see any unusual options trading in National Semiconductor throughout the trading day.

JON C. OGG

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) closed down 1.1% with the market today but shares are sliding hard after the dreaded fears came true in earnings: higher prices leading to lower profits.  Shares are down 6.5% at $23.01 on nearly 500,000 shares in the after-hours session.

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) is actually up after earnings if you can believe it considering it is a nat-gas fuel for truck companies.  T. Boone Pickens is proud.  Shares are up by 4.6% at $13.60 on over 142,000 shares in the after-hours.

Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) is lower after the decided to step down for personal reasons.  Really?  Shares were up 6.9% at $5.75 in regular trading but the stock is down by 2.4% at $5.61 on only 4,000+ shares after the close (shares were halted on the news).

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) is getting pounded, bruised, and scolded… The solar player is cutting capacity due to incentive cuts in France and Italy (and likely elsewhere).  We have been concerned about this long before the Middle East erupted.  Shares are down a sharp 24% at $2.40 on over 330,000 shares in the after-hours session.

GenVec, Inc. (NASDAQ: GNVC) showed a narrower than expected loss at -$0.01 EPS and sees cash burning of only about $5 to $7 million for 2011.  Shares are up by 7.7% at $0.45 on only 4,200 shares in the after-hours.  Keep in mind that this is a penny stock so it can go any direction for any reason.

Lime Energy Co. (NASDAQ: LIME) is an unknown company to most and it is trading higher after earnings reports were above plan and with guidance.  Shares are up 8% at $5.37 on about 17,000 shares in the after-hours session.

National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) is down marginally after earnings with shares down 1.1% at $14.00 on 366,000 after-hours shares traded.  What is unusual is that the move is so little in this issue.

Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is one that was expected to stay high after such cold weather earlier in winter but an earnings warning is killing shares.  The stock is down 6.5% at $26.34 in the after-hours.

JON C. OGG

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Reiterated Buy but raised target to $52.50 at Gleacher & Co.

American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Raised to Hold at Argus.
CIENA Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) Reiterated Buy at Argus.
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) Cut to Sell at Collins Stewart.
MDC Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MDC) Raised to Hold at Credit Suisse.
National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM) Reiterated Buy with $18 target at Gleacher & Co.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) Cut to Market Perform at BMO.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Neutral at SunTrust.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX) Cut to Market Perform at BMO.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG