Today, TomTom overseas issued its own warning. It noted that retailers had reduced PND devices inventory levels by more than expected.

This just goes to show you that even after a major market drop and recovery that the markets are nowhere close to efficient as of yet.  Garmin already outlined much of this last week.  We noted that Garmin’s woes looked adequately factored in after a 60% drop last week with using some common sense about what people will spend on in 2008, although we also noted that the PND and GPS sector was still going to have problems of its own.  So the market is back to headline-reactionary only: "Industry leader warns, stock drops severely… 1 week later its competitor warns, industry leader’s stock whacked hard again."

We first started seeing signs of a crack in the GPS market back in November, 2007, when we saw Trimble Navigation (NASDAQ: TRMB) issue statements.  Speaking of Trimble, its shares are down mildly by almost 1% at $27.10 today.

Shares of NAVTEQ Corp. (NYSE: NVT) are actually up marginally today and up quite a bit higher than last week, so perhaps the fears are easing about any concerns over Nokia (NYSE: NOK) acquiring it.  That is still under European Union review and could be close to three months before the full answer is known.  NAVTEQ shares are up 1.3% at $66.90, which is more than 6% off of the lows of last week.

A downgrade out of Soleil Securities from this morning certainly isn’t helping after the boutique lowered its Buy rating down to a new Hold rating.  Just keep in mind that this downgrade while the stock is under $50.00 comes after a 60% sell-off after this has been as high as $125.00.  We would caution that stocks that gap under $52-week lows twice tend not to see immediate recoveries, and a stock trading community that can only react to every headline as if it was fresh and developing each day isn’t going to offer much help either.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about buybacks, special financings, secondary offerings, M&A, and more previews for other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 8, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

With the last quarter showing some $1.217 Billion in revenues, you would derive a new range of $606 million to $730 million.  Before any estimate changes have been made, First Call has estimates for the quarter at $731.4 million.  When you compare that to Q1 2007, it doesn’t look so bad as the Q1 2007 showed some $492 million in revenues.

In no way can you call this good news, but…..  There is always a silver lining if you look at the big picture.  Garmin shares were trading down 10% around $50.00 in pre-market trading.  The low print was $50.18 today, under the prior 52-week low of $52.18. 

We noticed some trends peaking back in November when we saw some concerning data out of Trimble Navigation (NASDAQ: TRMB). 

One other issue to constantly watch is that Nokia (NYSE: NOK) acquisition of NAVTEQ (NYSE: NVT).  With a cash purchase price of $78.00 per share and a current share price of $64.70, you have to wonder about the reality of many thinking a Nokia regret or buyer’s remorse.  That’s the situation, even if NAVTEQ already approved the deal. Shares were above $75.00 just one month ago.  That is a wide enough arb-spread to scare many merger-arb players.  The European Commission’s extended review already gives this another 90 to 125 days before that approval answer is known.

With a high of $125.68 over the last year (October 2007), this sell-off marked a more than 60% cut in share prices.  An $11.7 Billion current market cap still seems high, but at some point enough is enough.  Things can always get worse, that is always present.  But shares are down by less than 5% at $53.84 after 90-minutes of trading.

It’s not prudent to call an all-clear and run out in the open here.  But it would also be foolish to say that you have only seen the beginning.  Sometimes "Less-Bad" is good enough.  It might not be the perfect comfort level entry for a longer-term investor, but the day traders just cleaned up this morning.

We consistently review merger-arb statistics and spreads for our special situations newsletter and we also make many general updates regarding mergers, speculation, and more on our open email distribution list.

Jon C. Ogg
April 3, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Here were Cramer’s TOP 9 STOCKS FOR 2007, with a call broken down for each one.  Borat would say HI FIVE on some and NOT SO NICE on others, as would be expected.  Cramer’s 14,582 year-end DJIA target…..Friday’s close was 13,365.87……although we did hit 14,279.96 on OCT11, 2007.  Cramer also gave a batch of price targets on most of theDJIA components:

• Batch 1 (AA, MO, AIG, AXP, BA, T)
• Batch 2 (CAT, C, KO, DD, XOM, GE)
• Batch 3 (MMM, GM, HPQ, HON, HD, INTC, AMD, SHLD)

Cramer’s Stock Picks FOR 5-YEARS OUT:

• Cramer’s First Pick For Five Years Out: First Solar (FSLR, SPWR)
• Cramer’s Second Pick For Five Years Out: MedcoHealth (MHS)
• Cramer’s Third Pick For Five Years Out: Transocean (RIG)

SOME LISTS: His list of recession proof stocks compared to ours.  We are updating our
Defensive Stocks For The First Half Of 2008" currently.  Cramer gave a huge list of companies he expects to benefit from the alternative energy traders (SGR, FWLT, BWA, OMG, FSLR, FTEK, WFR, TTEK, ZOLT, BP, SPWR, CY, CPST, ITRI)… Jim Cramer pondered which US companies China would want to acquire, about 3 months before sovereign funds started buying into US companies.  Cramer’s mortgage winners and losers…… Here were his MAJOR BULL MARKET STOCK PICKS(MHS, CVS, AGN, CELG, GENZ, CEPH, RIG, HAL, EMR, CAT, CMI, UTX, KO,PEP, CL, GS, SKS, VFC, UNP, CSX, BA), some of which are DJIAcomponents.  Cramer produced a "MUST OWN" list of stocks, many of whichare up significantly and some are down (WHR, BDK, ATI, BGC, HON, ASD, JCI, MDR, FWLT, CAT, TEX, DE, QCOM)

Cramer spent lots of time on International stocks that most US investors might not cover on their own.  He made a big call on Mercadolibre (MELI) (also BIDU, GOOG) with some emphasis on buying immediately, right before it made a huge run up.  Cramer’s Hidden Video Game Investment Perfect World (PWRD, ATVI, ERTS, VIA) was one he said could run more than 50% for 2008.  Cramer made 5 TOP CHINESE PICKS (CEO, CHL, SSW, FMCN, BIDU, GMR).  We’ll see in 2008 if any of his Canadian OIL TRUSTS get acquired in 2008 (BTE, CNE, PGH, PVX, PWE, AAV, GDI).  Cramer also went over his top picks from Europe for American investors (TOT, SI, ABB, PHG, BF)

ON TECHNOLOGY:  Cramer’s NEW HORSEMEN OF TECH…. will the list change in 2008???  Did Cramer Say $1,000.00 on Google, Or Is It $600.00? That was in May 2007.  Cramer Gave Monster Price targets to Baidu.com (BIDU, GOOG).. will these targets change in 2008? Cramer was very positive on all the GPS stocks,although we’d expect that Cramer will change his tune in 2008 now thatthe holiday madness is behind us (GRMN, UA, CROX, NVT, TRMB, SIRF).

Would it be fair not to include the Barron’s attack on Cramer from summer for those of you that criticize his every word?

ON WARREN BUFFETT…. Cramer noted that BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT in Canada may be the next Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK/A) NYSE: BAM). Cramer reviewed 10 Warren Buffett stocks for analysis and then reviewed 10 More Warren Buffett stocks:

• Stock Tickers: BRK/A, BNI, KO, PG, WMT, USG, AXP, WFC, MCO, JNJ, COP
• Stock Tickers: BRK/A, UNP, USB, MTB, ASD, NSC, WLP, UNH, IR, HRB

Will his buyout of ALCOA (AA) prediction come true in 2008??? Cramer gave a list of stocks that had bought back so much stock that they might be taking themselves private.

Join our free email distribution list for other Cramer calls or for updates we send out regarding IPO’s, spin-offs, restructuring, reorganization, activist investors and more.

Happy New Years from the 247WallSt.com team!

Jon C. Ogg
December 31, 2007

Subsequently, Garmin has also announced today that in light of these developments it does not intend to pursue its offer for Tele Atlas N.V.  So now TomTom will win teh TeleAtlas bidding.  This new agreement makes that risk almost immaterial now.

24/7 Wall St. is momentarily about to release a new Special Situation Investing Newsletter with a stock pick in the GPS, PND, and UMPCs sector that we feel should be acquired in the coming weeks to months.  The hold period we are expecting does not look like it will be a long-term position and the entire trade has the ability to be hedged with options.  We have consulted with several industry and research professionals and it is surprising that a) Wall Street has overlooked this one and b) that the company hasn’t been taken out already.

We comment on other merger developments in multiple sectors and dealing with private equity on our open distribution list.  There we provide more general summaries and previews for our subscriber products covering buyouts, spin-offs, backdoor plays into IPO’s, reogranizations, and break-up values.

Garmin shares are up more than 20% pre-market and back above $100 on over 2 million shares.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Guidance was issued as well. Trimble expects revenue to grow 26% to 28% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006, with revenue between $295 million and $300 million (estimates are $296 million). Trimble expects fourth quarter 2007 GAAP earnings per share between $0.17 and $0.19 and non-GAAP earnings per share between $0.24 and $0.26 (estimates are $0.25). Its non-GAAP guidance use a 39 percent tax rate, compared to an actual 25 percent tax rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, and assume 126 million shares outstanding.

Unfortunately, Wall Street is expecting more out of GPS stocks now.  Now a decision has to be made to see if the laggard in the sector will carry over to the leaders.  TRMB is trading down 10% at $43.05 in after-hours trading after a 6% gain today.

NAVTEQ (NVT) shares are down but only marginally because of the Nokia buyout.  Shares of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) are down 1.25% at $119.00 in after-hours trading, although shares closed up 4.6% today.  No trading has been seen in SiRF Tech (NASDAQ:SIRF).

• Recently, Jim Cramer interviewed Garmin’s CEO as an ‘immune growth stock’ in a crummy market.
• Garmin felt pressure on Nokia’s NAVTEQ buy.
• Here was the preview for the sector at the last earnings and here was how the shares popped higher then.

Jon C. Ogg
October 23, 2007

Jon C. Ogg
October 2, 2007

This is actually punishing shares of Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN) on additional competitive and pricing pressure fears.  Garmin shares are down 12% at $105.00 in early trading.  Garmin is roughly three-times the size of NAVTEQ in size of market cap and it is up roughly 150% from 52-week lows.  This company has been a winner so far, and we expect analysts to come out mixed with some defending shares and some saying Nokia will be tough.

• Jim Cramer recently named it an immune growth pick;
• Garmin was probably one of the Window Dressing stock beneficiaries;
• We also showed how these were a major winner after last earnings.

What is interesting is that Nokia is also down over 2.5% at $36.85.  The reason is not likely the dilution as much as the fact that this "could" stress some carrier relationships.  Sure the dilution to the stock will matter, but if Nokia hasn’t anticipated at least some pushback Wall Street would have reason for concern.  Keep in mind that it is a "big IF" because you know they thought this through and through.

We have been reviewing another lesser-known beneficiary of the major growth in GPS systems and in GPS for guidance in cell phones as a potential buyout candidate for the Special Situation Investing Newsletter, although the current position is unclear because of relative values and the valuation of intellectual property as far as the real worth versus the perceived worth.

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ:TRMB) is not seeing any pressure based upon the merger, although arguably it is because that company may be deemed as more protected despite having the lowest market cap and valuations in thr group. But that is another story.

Jon C. Ogg
October 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Navteq has a market cap of over $7.6 billion.

Nokia is sick of just being a handset company. It has a 36% share of the global market, but, as more phones are sold in places like India, margins will be compressed. The price points for handsets sold in developing countries is much lower than in Europe and the US.

Nokia figures that if it can provide services to people who but its handsets, and those of competitors, it can build another layer of revenue into the company. It has already started its own music download business for wireless devices.

The only real problem with the program is that Nokia is setting itself up to compete with the cellular service operators who buy its handsets. Operations like AT&T (T) make a lot of their money selling software and services to customers. They hardly need their largest supplier to take a piece of their sales and profits.

Nokia may think it is a nice problem to have, but time may tell that its largest customers decide to go elsewhere. That, by itself, could give Motorola (MOT) a lift.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) is a phenomenal high-growth story equal to the trends seen in Under Armour (NYSE:UA) and Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX).  Here’s what he likes about it:  It is the leader in global positioning that is trading under its growth rate.  He really liked the beat they gave with earnings last quarter and the raised guidance.  Shares are down 14% because of the market sell-off and it is still above where it was when it reported.  If shares get much weaker he thinks it’s a gift.  He thinks that it is a cheap growth stock that if he uses the highest estimate from Merrill Lynch that this can hit $116.00.

Cramer even brought on Garmin’s CFO for a telephone interview.  The CFO, Kevin Rauckman, said the company was even surprised with the margins.  The pricing pressures they anticipated haven’t yet surfaced.  As far as manufacturing capacity, they bought a third factory in Taiwan so it can keep doing its own manufacturing and is now in great supply-side shape the rest of the year.  Navigation is still strong and they haven’t seen a pinch from the weaking consumer yet. 

Cramer: Will you have enough product for Christmas?   Rauckman, CFO: "Absolutely….."

If you like the navigation sector, here is what we gave for the sector wrap-up when these companies all reported earnings within the same 24-hour period and here was the preview for the group.  NAVTEQ (NYSE:NVT) and Trimble Navigation (NASDAQ:TRMB) are the two other leaders out of the GPS sector, and SiRF Tech (NASDAQ:SIRF) is the one that makes many of the chipsets and software systems for mobile communications GPS systems.

Jon C. Ogg
August 15, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.