99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) reports earnings on Wednesday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.26 EPS and $372.76 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.27 EPS and $362.19 million revenues.  Shares are trading around $20.20, its consensus analyst price target is $20.28, and the 52-week trading range is $13.12 to $20.59.  As far as an offer for the company, FBR noted in a letter to its Special Committee: “we believe that the Special Committee could not justify accepting an offer below a $21.75 to $23.50 price range, and could potentially achieve a price significantly above this range if it conducts the appropriate sales process.”

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is set to have its 300 million share offering from Uncle Sam price Tuesday night for Wednesday trading.  Shares were down around 1.3% at $29.60 late on Tuesday.  We have offered an outlook that is not unfavorable after looking at past big offerings of this sort.  There are actually some good examples to use.

Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) hosts its “Financial Analyst Track” on Wednesday at the Synergy 2011 conference, and it also hosts its Citrix Systems Annual Stockholder Meeting the following day.  With shares around $82.00, its 52-week range is $40.33 to $86.95.  The company already said it was extending its virtualization efforts by acquiring Kaviza, so we’d expect to hear more there.  With shares so close to 52-week highs and at highs not seen since 2000 to 2001, we’d be expecting “reiterated guidance” or “raised guidance” from the company as a warning would not be welcomed at all.
 
Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC) reports earnings on Wednesday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.16 EPS and $4.23 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.97 EPS and $4.02 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $43.83 late on Tuesday, its consensus price target is $49.95 from analysts, and the 52-week trading range is $39.61 to $56.61.  CSC is one which has just remained a serial disappointment and shares are closer to 52-week lows even if this is trading well under 10-times expected earnings. 

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) reports earnings on Wednesday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.77 EPS and $20.07 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.10 EPS and $26.93 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $81.50 and it just hit the new 52-week high last week.  Analysts have an average price target only $78.95 now and the 52-week trading range is $53.41 to $83.95.  With a premium valuation, our take is that Costco has to beat earnings and it can’t use the high gas prices or the change in gas prices that some of the large discounters and retailers have used as excuses before.

Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) reports on Wednesday morning and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.40 EPS and $1.82 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.35 EPS and $1.81 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $30.05 and the 52-week trading range is $19.46 to $30.35.  Analyst price targets have already been passed up as the consensus target is $27.45.  Premium value for a food company… It probably has to raise guidance or analysts will have to really raise targets for the selling to not come into play.

NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) reports on Wednesday afternoon. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.53 EPS and $1.39 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS and $1.36 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $51.80, the consensus price target is $61.85, and the 52-week trading range is $31.07 to $61.02.  Be advised, the 50-day moving average is $50.04 and the 200-day moving average is $51.12.

Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK) is expected to have a secondary offering of 6.7 million shares that will price on Tuesday evening for Wednesday trading.  Shares were up 2.6% at $13.03 latein the day on Tuesday after three straight days of losses.  The 52-week range is $9.15 to $15.62 and shares closed Monday at $12.70.  We would expect the offering to price somewhere close to $12.70.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) reports on Wednesday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.04 EPS and $319.6 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.04 EPS and $402.37 million revenues.  Shares are trading around $20.25, the average analyst target is $22.71, and the 52-week trading range is $15.57 to $22.42. With the housing data we have seen, we are holding no great expectations here. More homebuilder business model changes or enhancements may be the norm. 

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) hosts its investor day on Wednesday and we just automatically expect angry tones over the latest shenanigans took place over Alibaba.  Yahoo! shares were at $18.65 just over two-weeks ago, and now the stock is down to $16.18.  Yahoo! has its 200-day moving average right below at $16.03 and its 50-day moving average is above at $16.86.

Other companies with earnings news on Wednesday will be (with Thomson Reuters estimates) are American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) with estimates at $0.15 EPS, Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES) with estimates at $0.44 EPS, and Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) at $0.79 EPS expected.  Another event we are expecting is the Spirit Airlines IPO, but that IPO was covered only briefly by us prior to this week.  Active Network Inc. (NASDAQ: ACTV) is set to be public with an IPO of 11 million shares in a price range of $16.00 to $18.00 per share.

Stay tuned for Wednesday!

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JON C. OGG

Affymetrix Inc. (NASDAQ: AFFX) announced preliminary revenues of about$75.0 million vs. $90 million expected from First Call consensus.  Thecompany said global sales fell below expectations for the quarter asincreased competition for academic research funding and continuedsoftness in industrial spending.

BE Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: BEAV) is seeing its shares tradeup on a large order announcement from Airbus.  The maker of airplaneinteriors raised earnings guidance for this past quarter to $0.54 per share vs. $0.50estimates, but it lowered guidance in Q4 to $0.50 vs. $0.57estimates.  Due to issues in the airline sector and delays in aircraftorders and building delays, the company is also lowering 2009 and 2010expectations.

Coherent, Inc. (NASDAQ: COHR) expects revenue of $141 million to$142.5 million rather compared with its prior range of $154 million to $157 million.The photonics-based solutions provider company is also closing itsexcimer laser site in Munich, Germany and will consolidate thoseoperations in Goettingen, Germany.

Conn’s, Inc. (NASDAQ: CONN) said Hurricanes Ike and Gustav took outroughly 144 store days of performance for the quarter.  The companysaid it will update guidance in November, but for all practicalpurposes this is a light version of an earnings warning from theelectronics and home appliances retailer with operations throughoutLouisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma.

NBTY Inc. (NYSE: NTY) issued preliminary guidance of $602 million inrevenue, rather than the $614.7 million estimates.  The company saidorganic growth in US wholesale nutrition sales were up 12%, butEuropean sales were down 14%.  It also noted that same-store sales inthe US were down 10%.  No indications have been seen on this one yet.

Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK) has issued lower guidance for thirdquarter revenues with a lower range of $90 to $95 million rather thanthe $104.5 million consensus as certain PCB customers have deferreddeliveries for its PCB systems.

Jon C. Ogg
October 13, 2008