Reuters: California declared a financial emergency.
Reuters: An SEC attorney raised concern about a Madoff report in 2004.
Reuters: Auto parts supplier Lear filed for bankruptcy.
Reuters: NYC apartment sales are down more than 50%.
Reuters: Beijing Automotive will bid for Opel.
Reuters: GM told a judge asset sales was its only option. Read More
Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSTK) has just reported earnings. The online ‘overstock’ retailer, or “The O,” has posted an 8% decline in revenue of $187.4M and a net loss at -$0.09 EPS. We unfortunately did not have an accurate pool of estimates for a comparison. But this does represent an $0.11 improvement compared with the -$0.20 EPS in the same period a year ago.
Read More
When you hear the group of conspiracy theorists that Gary Weiss so aptly named "The Baloney Brigade" talking about naked short selling, you get the idea that unscrupulous short sellers are driving down the prices of some stocks far below the price they would fetch in a fair market.
Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSTK) has announced its official debut of its real estate search application through the O-Hot Value Indicator.
The company site can be accessed at http://realestate.overstock.com. Overstock believes the site is unique as it helps shoppers identify great deals from more than three million classified, foreclosure, and hard-to-find auction homes for sale. The site is supposed to automatically highlight auction, distressed, and foreclosed properties.
If you are seeing tools like this launched, you have to wonder if perhaps the foreclosures, auction, and other troubles are very close to reaching their own bubbles.
Jon C. Ogg
June 10, 2008
Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSTK) has just announced that Jason Lindsey has resigned from the board of directors of Overstock.com and has resigned as the company’s president and chief operating officer effective December 31, 2007.
Chairman & CEO Patrick Byrne: "Jason co-founded the company and helped build it before retiring the first time. When I screwed it up a couple years ago, he came out of retirement and has played a decisive role getting it back on track… He’s done a superb job. Now that it is back in a solid trailing twelve month cash-flow-positive position, he wishes to return to our previous arrangement…. he will still oversee special projects in a part-time capacity."
The good news is that Patrick Byrne recognizes the mistakes of the past. The bad news is that Jason Lindsey was thought of as "the adult supervision" by many on Wall Street. A value manager at the recent VALUE INVESTING CONGRESS noted how much he had accomplished there when offering her viewpoint on Overstock.com. Patrick Byrne had also recently noted how margins had been down on discounts.
OSTK closed down almost 3% at $15.10 today in a very weak market, and the 52-week trading range is $14.05 to $39.39. There have been very few prints after the close. The print we saw in after-hours was higher, although this is indicated lower after the news.
Jon C. Ogg
January 2, 2008
comScore today released data that shows households with incomes under $50,000 are not lifting their online spending much from the holiday season last year. Sales from this demographic group are up only 10%.
For people from households above $100,000, the increase is 28%. That is likely to create some big winners and losers in the e-commerce sector.
Wal-Mart’s (WMT) online business is not likely to be helped. Neither is Target’s (TGT). Deep discounter Overstock (OSTK) probably gets beaten up as well. The online businesses for Macy’s (M) and Sears (SHLD) are not likely to be helped.
RedEnvelop (REDE) may be in for a good holiday period. Ditto Blue Nile (NILE)
Douglas A. McIntyre
There was an interesting event this week in New York City that was attended and covered by 24/7 Wall St., and that was the 3rd annual VALUE INVESTING CONGRESS. Fund managers, investment advisors, and hedge fund managers gave numerous presentations on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Many VALUE STOCKS were covered.
Lisa Rapuano, portfolio manager and founder of Lane Five Capital Management, discussed several key value stocks and gave the notion that one of the best screens in finding value stocks is by searching the list of "new lows" (similar to our own "52 Week Low Club" we issue daily), and then looking for the companies that can avoid "going to zero." When she presented Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK), there were many expressions of surprise from the large audience at the Value Investing Congress.
What was interesting was that she also noted how she was an Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) loyalist that buys many items from the online e-tail and retail giant. She noted how Overstock.com was a stock that back when her firm started screening it was hitting new daily lows and had all the recipes in place to go to zero. But then she noted how controversial CEO Patrick Byrne was now being kept at bay by the fairly new President & COO Jason Lindsey being thought of as "adult supervision." She also noted how the company blew out its old stale inventory without concern of the immediate charges so that it could focus on longer-term turnaround plans, noted how the company was able to raise cash via a financing (which surprised her), how the company trashed the old crummy ad campaign, and how it has been able to focus on a more attractive inventory mix and product offering that could fill a niche that Amazon.com wasn’t in.
In the presentation, she also described a site visit to Overstock.com’s facilities, noted insider ownership and a high a short interest, and had many tongue-in-cheek comments for believers and skeptics alike. She also noted how difficult it was to make that decision and to evaluate the stock because its financial losses at the time were such that it wouldn’t fit into most VALUE INVESTING screens. This is also not a brand new investment or a breaking call as Lane Five has been in the position, but this was a considerable surprise to the audience (and to yours truly).
One of the similar stocks that Rapuano rode up was Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ:NILE) as a pick from the prior year, and it sounded like Lane Five has lightened up considerably in that position. But she did note that before the recent sell-off there that the company’s internal performance was at the higher-end of her best case scenario from the start, and she noted that Blue Nile’s stock could actually reach the vicinty of $150 per share if the company can fully execute on its plan. So Lisa Rapuano isn’t treading into an entirely new space, and I sure didn’t get any impression that she was making any hasty decisions.
As reminder, opinions are opinions. Sometimes they work quite well and sometimes they don’t. I didn’t hear any exact price targets or time frame given, although Lisa Rapuano takes a long-term view and doesn’t panic out of her funds positions when the underlying thesis remains intact. With such a huge short interest of more than 5 million shares on last look, it is always interesting to see various points of view. They say "beauty is in the eye of the beholder," and it has been shown through time that financial metrics are as well.
As 24/7 Wall St. enjoys screening value stocks for our Special Situation Investing Newsletter, this certainly gave us a different way of looking at some stock screens in a different light compared to traditional value screens.
The next VALUE INVESTING CONGRESS takes place in May 6 & 7, 2008 in Pasadena, California, and 24/7 Wall St. would recommend that any value investing strategists and managers consider attending. Sometimes a simple idea or new way of thinking about a situation can be worth millions, and there was far more than one simple idea and more than one way of thinking differently about a situation.
Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2007
AAUK cut to Hold at Citigroup.
ANPI cut to Sector PErform at both RBC & CIBC.
APPB cut to Underperform at Wachovia.
ASH cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
AXP cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
BHP cut to Hold at Citigroup.
CFC cut to Underweight at Lehman.
COF cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
CTXS raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
CLWR raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK) is seeing a stock surge in its pre-market trading. The controversial online discount retailer posted a narrower than expected loss of $4.7 million on a 3% rise in revenues to $161.9 million. The loss per share was -$0.20 EPS. First Call had consensus estimates of -$0.39 EPS on revenues of $155.1 million.
On an operating cash flow basis, Overstock posted a $5.9 million positive cash flow, and that is critical since that was a Q3 number rather than just a Q4 holiday quarter. On an EBITDA basis, the company posted a positive $4.1 million.
The big upside on revenues compared to estimates combined with lower sales marketing costs (down 49%) appear to have paid off. The stock is trading up over 14% to $34.00, well above the $13.40 lows of the last year and just under the $35.96 52-week high. At the end of September, the NASDAQ short interest in Overstock was listed as 4.611 million shares, about 15.5 days to cover.
Jon C. Ogg
October 19, 2007
Online retailer Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-week high last week. So did Priceline (PCLN), Expedia (EXPE), and eBay (EBAY). Even Overstock (OSTK) made the list.
On the 52-week low side of the ledger, Wall St. found Sear Holdings (SHLD), Circuit City (CC), Staples (SPLS), and Borders (BGP). Same store sales for last month were disappointing for most retailers.
The rotation toward buying online seems to have come to pass. And, if bricks-and-mortar retailers want to know where their business went, they can blame it on a slow economy and high gas prices. Or, they can admit that a huge amount of their business is going online.
Part of the trend is driven by convenience, but another important aspect is that shoppers can get reviews and ratings of products online before they buy. According to a recent study by iCrossing, "About 49 percent of those surveyed said they look for customer product reviews and evaluations, up from 40 percent two years ago." It’s much harder to get a review in a store.
Forrester Research expects US online sales to hit $157 billion this year. The figures should rise to $272 billion by 2001, which would make it a little under 10% of total retail sales.
Although a number of large retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT) have large and well-trafficked sites, the movement online is going to continue to do significant damage to store traffic.
That means the companies like Home Depot (HD), Best Buy (BBY), and CostCo (COST) better start pushing the opportunity to buy at their websites harder and start looking at closing under-performing stores. And, that is likely the path which the most intelligent retailers will take over the next two or three years. Measuring store sales and attrition by location may well allow some of these companies to prune their number of locations. But, they have to get those customers to stay with them online.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK) will report earnings before the market open on Tuesday, and fortunately its ‘bound to be entertaining’ conference call is late morning at 11:00 AM EST. This one is thinly followed and has a wide range of estimates, but it looks like First Call has guestimated earnings at a loss of -$0.62 EPS on revenues of $145 million. The company has missed estimates for each of the last 3 quarters, and is not in the spotlight as much since its Chairman & CEO Patrick Byrne has stayed more out of the spotlight lately and stopped referring to conspiracies to topple his company by Sith Lords.
On a static basis, it appears that options traders are braced for a move of $1.25 to $1.30 in either direction. Its most recent chart is actually back under levels that would mark an up-trend in the stock, although it goes without saying that has a mind of its own and can see wild moves on news. The stock also carries over 5.4 million shares in its June short interest. That represents more than 40% of the float, and Mr. Byrne’s attack on short sellers is quite a unique case.
The company is expected to post losses for 2007 and 2008. That means it has to operate cautiously so it doesn’rt get its own piece of the O. We aren’t going to spend too much guess time from here, but it may be worth pointing out that there are still many skeptics that believe its $400+ million market cap is too high and have their bets placed accordingly. That’s for you to decide.
Overstock’s 52-week trading range is $13.40 to $21.72.
Jon C. Ogg
July 30, 2007
Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
MONDAY, JULY 30, 2007
ABN AMRO (ABN)
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Cameco (CCJ)
FPL Group (FPL)
HSBC Holdings (HBC)
Humana (HUM)
Monster Worldwide (MNST)
Overstock.com (OSTK)
RadioShack Corp. (RSH)
Simon Property (SPG)
Statoil (STO)
Sun Microsystems (SUNW)
Principal Financial Group (PFG)
Tyson Foods (TSN)
Verizon (VZ)
Wm Wrigley (WWY)
TUESDAY, JULY 31, 2007
Alcan (AL)
American Capital Strategies (ACAS)
American Electric Power (AEP)
Aon Corporation (AOC)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR)
Avon Products (AVP)
Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. (BWLD)
CBS Corp. (CBS)
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Coach, Inc. (COH)
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce-CVRD (RIO)
Crown Castle International (CCI)
CryoLife, Inc. (CRY)
Denny’s Corp. (DENN)
DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA)
Encore Acquisition Company (EAC)
FEI Company (FEIC)
First Solar (FSLR)
Fresh Del Monte (FDP)
Gartner (IT)
General Cable Corp. (BGC)
General Motors (GM)
Headwaters Inc. (HW)
IAC/Interactive (IACI)
ImClone Systems (IMCL)
IndyMac Bancorp (IMB)
Liz Claiborne (LIZ)
Marathon Oil (MRO)
MetLife Inc. (MET)
NAVTEQ Corp. (NVT)
NCR Corp. (NCR)
Nicor Inc. (GAS)
Northwest Airlines (NWA)
NYMEX Holdings (NMX)
PMI Group (PMI)
RealNetworks (RNWK)
RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR)
Ruth’s Chris Steak House (RUTH)
SiRF Tech (SIRF)
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)
St. Joe Company (JOE)
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)
Tupperware Brands (TUP)
Turbochef (OVEN)
Under Armour (UA)
Valero Energy (VLO)
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
Waste Industries (WWIN)
Waste Management (WMI)
Watts Water Tech (WTS)
WebMD Health (WBMD)
Whole Foods Market (WFMI)
We will be following up with many of these individually over the weekend and early in the week with full earnings previews. Have a great weekend.
-The 24/7 Wall St., LLC team
| Today’s top tickerspy Indexes | |
| Coffee Stocks | +14.3% |
| Fitness and Dieti... | +4.1% |
| Textile Stocks | +4.0% |
| Cement Stocks | +3.9% |
| Modular Building ... | +3.7% |
 | |
| |
RSS Updates
Email Updates
