• Finding, development, and acquisition (FD&A) costs are rising.
• Reserves are growing.
• Proved, developed reserves are shrinking.
• Reserve additions are not well matched to production.
• Liquids are in every E&P company’s sights.

To even out the changes a bit, Fitch computed a three-year average as well as a year-over-year average change.

FD&A costs for the entire group of companies fell by an average of -14% over three years, but the variation was large. The three-year average cost of a barrel in 2008 was $20.76, falling to $16.46 in 2011. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) posted an increase of 45% in FD&A costs over three years, while Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) lowered its costs by -41% and ConocoPhillips lowered its costs by -36%. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) showed a 1% increase in FD&A costs over the three years and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) paid 60% more per barrel in FD&A costs. FD&A costs for SandRidge Energy Corp. (NYSE: SD) rose 42%, while the largest drop in costs came at Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), at -65%.

Total proved reserves posted median gains of 4.8% year-over-year and 24% since 2008. Some of the largest reserves gains came from additions of natural gas, which drove up the reserve equivalent barrels count, but weighed on valuations due to the low prices for natural gas. Among the bigger companies, Exxon increased its reserves by 14.1% over the three-year span, while Chevron’s reserves grew by just 0.4% and Conoco’s fell by -18%.

Proved, developed reserves declined for all the companies in the sample by -3.5% over the three-year period. Fitch defined proved, developed reserves as “proved reserves that can be expected to be recovered through existing wells with existing equipment and operating methods, or through relatively minor expenditures.” Essentially that means that the companies are increasing production from existing wells and driving down the amount that’s left to get out of a producing well. As a percentage of total reserves, proved, developed reserves rose the most at Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), a total of 8% in the three-year period. Proved, developed reserves fell the most at Plains Exploration & Production Co. (NYSE: PXP), a total of -16.4%.

The mismatch between production and reserves replacement is described as “lumpy” by Fitch. The problem is mainly one of timing. A project with a long startup cycle, like Chevron’s liquefied natural gas project offshore of Australia, delays reserves booking well past the time the company spent billions of dollars to develop the project. This effect will become a bigger issue as new projects are developed in ultra-deepwater and other difficult environments by smaller companies.

Finally, the push to develop liquids production has been well-documented over the past couple of years. With natural gas prices near historic lows, liquids development is critically important to companies that once focussed almost exclusively on dry natural gas. The largest three-year average gain in liquids reserves was 40% at SandRidge, followed by 12% gains at Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) and Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX). Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) grew its liquids reserves by 11% over the three years.

Fitch notes that what it calls ‘efficiency’ — which is essentially the sum of all the factors it looked at in this operational review — “helps determine the relative credit quality and competitiveness of a firm when indexed against its peers … [B]eing a low-cost, efficient producer remains a key credit protection in the event of lower oil prices.”

The full report from FitchRatings is available here.

Paul Ausick

The Iraqi government is auctioning 12 exploration blocks and 47 other companies have been qualified to bid in the leasing round, currently scheduled for May 30-31. Among those companies welcomed into the auction are Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A), a partner with Exxon in developing Iraq’s massive West Qurna field.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) are the only other US-based companies included among the qualified companies. BP plc (NYSE: BP), Total SA (NYSE: TOT), and Eni SpA (NYSE: E) were also okayed. A complete list is available from Reuters.

Paul Ausick

Natural gas has been stuck at around $2.50/thousand cubic feet for some time now, but have been ticking up recently as production is being slowed — primarily in an effort to pump up prices — while warm winter weather is cutting demand for heating and electricity demand is also falling.

We’ve looked at several oil & gas companies, including the three US-based supermajors and a number of independents with market caps above $10 billion: Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD); Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY). We’ve looked at the past year’s stock price performance, current year performance, and compared that with consensus target prices as reported by Thomson Reuters in an effort to find the stocks we think will be top performers in 2012.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a consensus price target of $95, up from $92 at the end of December, and a Friday closing price of $85.62, for a potential upside of about 11.3%. Crude oil price hikes provide substantial benefits to Exxon’s shares, and those price hikes could add $10-$20/barrel to the company’s revenues in the coming year. Exxon is also the largest US natural gas producer, which isn’t helping it much these days. Over the past 12 months, Exxon’s shares have gained just 1.7%

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a consensus price target of $124.50, up $2 since the end of December, and a current price of around $106.66, for a potential upside of about 16.8%. Of the three supermajors, Chevron’s potential gain is the largest, it’s share price gain of nearly 10% in the past year is the largest, and its dividend yield of 3.1% is second only to Conoco’s 3.6% among the three integrated giants. Chevron shares gained nearly 10% in 2011, though they are essentially flat since the beginning of this year.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has a consensus price target of $81.32, marginally lower than its December price, and a current price around $73.36, for a potential upside of about 10.8%. Conoco shares have lost nearly -3% of their value in the past year. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained about 0.75%.

Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC) has a consensus price target of $73.50, down $3 from its target in December, and a current price around $65.72, for a potential upside of about 12.4%. Year to day Range shares are up about 5.5%, but over the past 12 months the stock gained 34%. And even though it trades at about 56x earnings, Range is often mentioned as a takeover target from one of the supers or another mining company that wants to diversify into energy. Range holds about 800,000 leased acres in the Marcellus shale play, which is located close to the massive northeast US market.

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) has a consensus price target of $32, $4 higher than its December price, and a current price of $27.82, for a potential upside of about 14.3%. Tesoro’s share price gained about 7.75% in the past 12 months, but the price is up more than 19% since the beginning of the year. As the Brent/WTI differential widens, Tesoro’s profits will grow. The company has the only refinery in North Dakota, and the differential between Brent and Bakken oil is even more than double the WTI/Brent spread.

In the firm’s equity income allocations, the firm is selling 100% of its allocation in American Electric Power Co. (NYSE: AEP) at $41.14 and is adding in Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB) at $28.22.

As far as growth and income, Argus is recommending to buy CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) at $23.32 and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) at $79.00; and it is recommending that the model portfolio sell all of its positions in Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) at $97.17 and Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) at $19.18.

Finally, in mid-cap growth the firm’s model portfolio is buying VeriFone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) at $37.12 and buying MDU Resources Group Inc. (NYSE: MDU) at $21.50.  It is selling 100% of its position in IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE) at $113.13.  Another selling stock, but only by 20% of its allocation is Hain Celestial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN).

Speaking of model portfolios, here were the 5 most undervalued DJIA stocks and the 5 least attractive DJIA stocks based upon consensus targets.  Here are the top 4 DJIA stock picks from Jim Cramer for 2012.

Also, we made a lot of changes this year to the 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio.

JON C. OGG

The fortunes of any oil & gas producer depends on the price of the commodity, and crude prices in the US have been rising, while natural gas prices have been no better than flat for the year. And while crude prices could rise to an average of more than $105/barrel in 2012, natural gas prices are not expected to rise much next year as abundant supplies are likely to increase even more.

We’ve looked at several oil & gas companies, including the three US-based supermajors and a number of independents with market caps above $10 billion: Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD); Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY). We’ve looked at the past year’s stock price performance and compared that with median target prices as reported by Thomson Reuters in an effort to find the stocks we think will be top performers in 2012.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a median price target of $92 and a current price of around $84.62, for a potential upside of 8.7%. That’s the lowest potential gain of any of the stocks in this survey, but combined with a share price gain of about 15% in the past 12 months and a dividend yield of 2.3%, Exxon’s upside is stronger than the simple calculation. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $67.03-$88.23, so the stock is trading within about 5% of its 52-week high. Crude oil price hikes provide substantial benefits to Exxon’s shares, and those price hikes could add $10-$20/barrel to the company’s revenues in the coming year.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a median price target of $122.50 and a current price of around $106.76, for a potential upside of 14.7%. Of the three supermajors, Chevron’s potential gain is the largest, it’s share price gain of nearly 16.5% in the past year is the largest, and its dividend yield of 3% is second in among the three giants. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $86.68-$110.01. Chevron has been the strongest bet among the three US supermajors this past year, and there’s little reason to expect that to change in 2012. A new 52-week high is close, and current events in the Middle East could push shares to a new high before the new year.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has a median price target of $82 and a current price around $72.24, for a potential upside of about 13.5%. Conoco trails the other two supermajors in share price gain for the past 12 months, posting a rise of just 6.35%. The company’s dividend yield is highest of the supers, at 3.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $58.65-$81.80. Conoco just sold assets in the North Sea for $330 million as it continues to try to bring its debt back under control. Of the three supermajors, this is the least likely to achieve its potential upside.

Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC) has a median price target of $77.50 and a current price around $61.55, for a potential upside of 26%. But Range’s share price has jumped more than 36% in the past year, but the company pays a paltry dividend yield of just 0.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $44.20-$77.24. With a market cap of right around $10 billion, Range is often mentioned as a takeover target from one of the supers or another mining company that wants to diversify into energy. Range holds about 800,000 leased acres in the Marcellus shale play, which is located close to the massive northeast US market.

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) has a median price target of $28 and a current price around $23, for a potential upside of about 22%. The refiner’s share price has gained more than 25% this year, but the company pays no dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $17.43-$29.61. Unlike the other major US refiner, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Tesoro has made no major acquisitions recently, apparently satisfied to play the hand it’s got. That’s probably smart, considering Valero shares got whacked in the past 12 months, down more than -9%. But as the Brent/WTI differential closes, no refining stock is a good bet for 2012, regardless of the potential upside calculation.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) has a median price target of $115 and a current price around $75.75, for a potential upside of 31.4%. The company’s shares gained a meager 2.2% in the past 12 months and the dividend yield is just 0.1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $58.63-$106.07. Like Range Resources, Pioneer carries a market cap of right around $10 billion. Most of the company’s assets are in Texas, and most are oil. Either as a takeover target or as a liquids producer, Pioneer is a solid play.

Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC) has a median target price of $100 and a current price of $75.75, for a potential upside of 32%. The share price gained more than 9% in the past year and the company pays a dividend yield of just 0.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $57.11-$85.50. Until fairly recently, Anadarko’s assets have been exclusively onshore in the US, but its acquisition of Kerr-McGee gave it a position in the Gulf of Mexico and the company has also acquired assets offshore of Africa. The potential upside here, combined with the company’s share price performance last year, make Anadarko a solid prospect for gains in 2012.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) has a median target price of $35.50 and a current price around $22.87, for a potential upside of 55%. Shares have lost more than -11% in the past 12 months and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $22-$35.95. Chesapeake’s shares are near the 52-week low today following a report from Reuters on how the company used shell companies to secure leases to drilling rights in Michigan and potential lawsuits springing from the practice. On the other side, at least one analyst thinks Chesapeake offers a “compelling risk/reward” opportunity. That awe-inspiring upside potential is probably out of reach though. Chesapeake holds a lot of debt, and any hiccup in the financial markets could raise havoc with the company.

Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) has a median price target of $134 and a current price of $88.63, for a potential upside of 51.2%. The company’s share price has fallen more than -25% in the past year and it pays a dividend yield of 0.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $73.04-$134.13. Several directors and company officers have been buying shares in the past month or so. Just under half of the company’s liquids production comes from its US assets, so the rising prices for WTI are positives for Apache. The large potential upside is probably not going to be closed, but the company’s shares could easily improve by 25% in 2012.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) has a median price target of $117.50 and a current price around $93.69, for a potential upside of 25.4%. The company’s share price has fallen more than -4% in the past 12 months and it pays a dividend yield of 2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $66.36-$117.89. Oxy’s assets include liquids-rich fields in southern California, where pricing for crude and liquids is higher than anywhere else in the country. Other assets in Texas and elsewhere onshore in the US will drive revenue and profit at Oxy this year, and the stock’s potential upside is not an impossible goal.

Overall, among these oil & gas stocks, Chevron would be the pick among the supermajors, and either Range Resources or Pioneer among the independents, primarily on the possibility of a takeover. Refiners face a tough 2012 and Conoco’s decision to split off its refining into a separate company won’t help matters.

Paul Ausick

We’ve surveyed eight major oil companies, both integrated and E&P only, to try to find out where value in these stocks might be based on analysts’ target prices and implied upside on the stock. The companies we looked at are Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP), BP plc (NYSE: BP), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR), more commonly known as Petrobras.

All data comes from Yahoo! Finance and MarketWatch, with current prices from about noon today.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a median target price of $90.00 from 17 brokers. Shares are trading today at $79.31, for an upside potential of $10.69, or 13.5%. Exxon pays a dividend yield of 2.4% and its forward P/E is 9.38. Exxon’s upside is the second-lowest in this group, and is dragged down by the company’s expressed decision to retain its refining operations. Because refining is, at the best of times, cyclical and profitability depends largely on crude oil prices, the current upward movement in WTI pricing will affect the company’s refining margins.

In the third quarter, Exxon’s US refining profits totaled $810 million, up 79% from the third quarter of 2010. Non-US refining profits actually fell by -23% because the WTI/Brent differential did not affect overseas crude pricing.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a median target price of $122.00 from 19 brokers. Shares are trading today at $101.88, for a potential upside of $20.12, or 19.8%. Chevron pays a dividend yield of 3.1% and its forward P/E is 7.91. Chevron, like Exxon, has rejected the option of hiving off its refinery operations, and also like Exxon, that decision will affect profits as refinery margins fall. In the third quarter, Chevron’s price differential between WTI and Brent crude averaged $17/barrel. As Brent prices fall due to resumed production from Libya and WTI prices rise, the differential will close further and the $2 billion in profit that Chevron made from its downstream operations will also decline. Fortunately for Chevron, the higher realized prices for its crude will offset a fair portion of that downstream drop-off.

ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP) has a median target price of $80.00 from 17 brokers. Shares are trading today at $70.80, for an implied upside of $9.20, or 13%. Conoco pays a dividend yield of 3.7% and its foward P/E is 8.39. Conoco announced its intention to spin-off its refining operations into a separate company, but it may have waited too long to be able to set a premium price for its refineries. The company’s potential upside is the lowest of this group, and that is likely due to what investors see as a probable delay in the refinery spin-off or a decision by the company to go ahead with the deal at a less-than-desired price.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) has a median target price of $54.12 from 12 brokers. Shares are trading today at $43.23, for an implied upside of $10.96, or 25.4%. The company pays a dividend yield of 3.8%, the highest of this group, and its forward P/E is 6.58, the second-lowest in this group. While BP has managed to boost its share price by more than 60% from its low in June of 2010 following the Macondo well explosion that killed 11 workers and dumped 5 million barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico, investors remain wary of the company’s ability to put the disaster fully behind it. BP is also trying to sell two refineries, not to bolster its reserves, but simply to get rid of them. At the same time, it is upgrading its Indiana refinery to accept more crude from Canada’s oil sands.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) has a median target price of $115.00 from 19 brokers. Shares are trading today at $97.20, for an upside potential of $17.80, or 18.3%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and its forward P/E of 11.72. Because Oxy has no refining operations, it is insulated from the decline in refining margins. The company’s stock was upgraded recently from ‘neutral’ to ‘outperform’ with a target price of $135.00 by Credit Suisse. The company owns high-potential shale oil fields in California and other properties in Texas that will benefit from rising crude prices, without suffering any drag from refining.

Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) has a median target price of $33.00 from 18 brokers. Shares are trading today at $27.14, for an implied gain of $5.86, or 21.6%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.2% and its forward P/E is 7.99. Marathon successfully spun-off 100% of its refining assets into a separate company, Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), in June this year. Marathon averaged 46,000 barrels/day of production from its Libyan assets in 2010. The company has not indicated when any part of that production will be back on-line, but a resumption should be just around the corner.

Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) has a price target of $134.00 from 23 brokers. Shares are trading today at $100.87, for an upside potential of $33.13, or 32.8%. The company pays a dividend yield of 0.6% and its forward P/E is 8.3. Apache’s target price is a few pennies below its 52-week high, which may signal that the company is fully priced. Apache’s strongest point has been that it is able to sell about 75% of its production at Brent prices. As the price gap between WTI and Brent narrows, that won’t have a lot of impact on the company unless Brent should suddenly fall below WTI. Like Oxy and Marathon, Apache has no refining to concern itself with.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR) has a median target price of $38.04 from 20 brokers. Shares are trading today at $27.28, for an upside potential of $10.76, or 39.4 %, the highest upside in this group. The company pays a dividend yield of 0.6% and its forward P/E is 6.42, both the lowest in this group. Petrobras is investing nearly $225 billion over the next few years to begin producing some 5 billion barrels of crude from the basins offshore of Brazil. In the third quarter, the company produced about 2.6 million barrels/day and expects to raise that total to 3 million barrels/day by the end of 2012. It will need to continue that level of production growth in order to keep up with the costs it will incur.

Of the eight companies in this group, the favorite probably has to be Apache, which has no refining operations and is able to sell the vast majority of its crude at the highest price available. Oxy is a strong second choice. The major integrated companies will feel the drag from their refineries, and Marathon needs to get its Libyan oil back online. As for Petrobras, it’s really a crapshoot at this point.

Paul Ausick

Markets opened slightly lower this morning and spent the morning trying to decide on a direction. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose more than expected, but even that was not enough to charge up investors. In the early afternoon, advances were leading declines on the NYSE, while the status was just the reverse on NASDAQ. Both oil and gold prices were slightly lower after rising sharply yesterday. So far this month, markets are up a solid 13%.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly more than 21 points to 12,230.35 (0.18%), the NASDAQ fell about -1.5 points (-0.05%) to2,737.15, and the S&P 500 rose 0.03% or about 0.47 points to 1,285.06.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including a raise for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) to ‘outperform’ at Wells Fargo. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was maintained at ‘buy’ but the target price was cut to $90 at Argus; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) cut to ‘sector perform’ at Scotia; Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) cut to ‘sector perform’ at CIBC; Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) raised to ‘outperform’ at Macquarie; and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) raised to ‘outperform’ with a new target price of $135 at Credit Suisse.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is up 0.3%, at $109.99, two pennies short of a new 52-week high; Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) is down about -7.6%, at $48.91; Merck (NYSE: MRK) is up 2.3%, at $35.10; Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is up 4.33% (our coverage here), at $144.38; Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) is up 1.6%, at $18.23; and The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) is up 11.6%, at $9.94 (our coverage here).

Several other standouts from today follow …

Stillwater Mining Co. (NYSE: SWC) is up more than 27%, at $12.65. The company beat earnings estimates this morning, and has reiterated its production estimates for platinum and palladium for 2011. Stillwater recycled 133,500 ounces of platinum, palladium, and rhodium in the third quarter, up 70% from the same period a year ago.

Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALGN) is up more than 34%, at $23.94. The company posted solid earnings for the third quarter and announced a $150 million stock buyback program. Align manufactures and sells Invisalign teeth straightening products.

Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ: STMP) is up more than 25%, at $32.48 — a new 52-week high — following an outstanding earnings report. Stamps.com raised its non-GAAP EPS estimate for the second time this year, to $1.20-$1.40. The company originally estimated non-GAAP EPS of $0.85-$1.05.

Computer Programs and Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CPSI) are down more than -28%, at $51.10. The company missed both revenue and EPS estimates for the quarter, and the fourth-quarter outlook is also weak. The company’s $1.44/share dividend takes some of the sting out of the poor results.

Spansion Inc. (NYSE: CODE) is down more than -25%, at $10.46, after posting a new 52-week lower earlier today of $9.17. The company released a weaker fourth-quarter forecast and announced the closure of its plant in Kuala Lumpur as part of its effort to cut costs.

Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) is down more than -19%, at $18.52. The company’s third-quarter earnings were short of expectations and the fourth-quarter forecast was lowered.

Stay tuned for Monday.  We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

9:45 a.m. — Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
3:00 p.m. — USDA farm prices

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) reiterated Buy with $100 target at Argus.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Maintained Buy but cut target to $90 at Argus.
Gardner Denver, Inc. (NYSE: GDI) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
j2 Global Communications (NASDAQ: JCOM) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
McDermott International Inc. (NYSE: MDR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) Raised to Outperform and $135 target at Credit Suisse.
Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) Cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotia (late-Thursday).
Spectrum Brands Inc. (NYSE: SPB) Started as Outperform with $35 target at Credit Suisse.
Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) Raised to Buy at BNP Paribas.
Virgin Media, Inc. (NASDAQ: VMED) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

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The DJIA jumped above 12,000 in the opening minutes of trading this morning and had topped 12,200 by mid-afternoon. European Union leaders have agreed on a deal that would make up to $1.4 trillion as a bailout fund for troubled European banks, offer a 50% haircut to Greek debt holders, and recapitalize the continent’s banks. Apparent euphoria over the deal in Europe caused investors to miss the weak number on pending home sales. The euro rose to more than $1.42, its highest level in nearly two months, and oil prices were about $3/barrel higher this morning and had gained nearly another dollar by mid-afternoon. The day closed with a few uncertainties still remaining on the agreement announced earlier in Europe.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly more than 340 points to 12,209.23 (2.87%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 88 points (3.32%) to 2,738.63, and the S&P 500 rose 3.43% or more than 42 points to 1,284.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) maintained at ‘neutral’ with price target cut from $16 to $14 at Credit Suisse; Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup (ahem!); Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) started at ‘outperform’ with a $60 price target at Credit Suisse and maintained at ‘buy’ with a $50 target at Canaccord Genuity; Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) cut to ‘market perform’ at FBR; and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) reiterated at ‘sell’ by Canaccord Genuity.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) up about 0.5%, at $65.25; Colgate Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) up about 1%, at $91.49; Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) up 0.84%, at $81.75; Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) up nearly 11%, at $96.59; Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) up nearly 2.5%, at $48.98; Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) up 2.2%, at $33.32; Bristol Meyers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) up 1.8%, at $33.10; and Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) up 1.5%, at $27.69.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

QuickLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QUIK) is up nearly 25%, at $2.87. The company announced an agreement under which mobile phone maker Kyocera will use QuickLogic chips in new products for the Japanese market.

Kelly Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: KELYB) is up nearly 28%, at $16.75. The company is set to announce earnings on November 9th, and is glimmering in the glow of a solid earnings report today from Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW).

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) is up more than 21%, at $4.00. Germany has announced another cut to its solar power feed-in tariff at the first of the year, and that could unleash a horde of new projects to take advantage of the current higher tariff rate.

Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX) is up more than 19%, at $11.74. The company reported an EPS loss yesterday, even though sales were up 24%. Investors must like the revenue report more than they hate the EPS loss.

McDermott International Inc. (NYSE: MDR) is down nearly -26%, at $10.85. The engineering and construction company lowered its third-quarter profit and revenue guidance. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.29 and McDermott is now saying EPS will be just $0.03-$0.05.

Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) is down about -18%, at $18.87. The company missed its earnings expectations, but the worse news is that the SEC have begun a formal investigation into bribery charges against the company for actions it took in foreign markets.

Stay tuned for Friday.  We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Consumer spending
• 8:30 a.m. – Employment cost index
• 9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

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Paul Ausick

Perhaps the most intriguing item in today’s news is that India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. is considering a takeover bid for Valero. Bloomberg reports that the Indian giant could make an all-cash offer of $48/share for the US’s largest refiner. That is more than a 90% premium to Valero’s closing price yesterday, and a total of more than $27 billion. Reliance, which has a market cap of about $1.3 trillion, could easily afford the deal, but getting US regulators to approve the sale of the country’s largest refiner to a foreign buyer will be a non-trivial exercise.

Chevron has announced another rise in its quarterly dividend. The company, which reports earnings tomorrow, has bumped its payout to $0.81, or $3.24 annually, up from $3.12. Chevron is expected to post EPS of $3.44 on revenue of $67.93 billion tomorrow, even though the company issued an interim report a couple of weeks about saying that earnings would be about flat with EPS of $3.57 in the second quarter.

Finally, when BP announced earnings earlier this week, the company said it would expand its asset sales to a total of $45 billion, a sharp increase to its previous commitment to sell some $30 billion in assets to fund its liabilities for the Macondo well disaster last year. The company has also received approval from US regulators for a new project involving four wells in the Gulf of Mexico and yesterday received a permit to beginning drilling a new ultra-deepwater well. BP’s Gulf of Mexico production fell to 250,000 barrels/day last quarter, from a pre-explosion total of 440,000 barrels/day. Getting permits to drill new holes is critical to the company’s future because it gets about 10% of its total production from its Gulf of Mexico wells.

In the first hour of trading this morning, Exxon Mobil shares are up less than 0.5%, at $81.42, in a 52-week range of $65.09-$88.23. Occidental’s shares are up more than 6.8%, at $93.14, in a 52-week range of $66.36-$117.89. Valero’s shares are up nearly 3.5%, at $26.02, in a 52-week range of $16.40-$31.12. Chevron’s shares are up more than 1.5%, at $108.45, in a 52-week range of $80.41-$109.94. BP’s shares are up about 0.6%, at $44.93, in a 52-week range of $33.62-$49.50.

Paul Ausick