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Earth Day Tainted By Billions In Alternative Energy Losses (FAN, QLCN, TAN, KWT, PWND, PBW, FSLR, SPWR, WFR, XOM, CVX, BP, CREE, TSLA)

Administrator — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 16:58:54 +0000

Earth Day is April 22, 2012, which is this Sunday. Many Americans and many people elsewhere will be thinking about how they can be more green. Sadly, there are going to be many investors who are going to be wishing that they had their greenbacks back from investing in green energy. This not meant as any bashing over the Solyndra SNAFU nor about the value erosion in ethanol and other alternative energy sources, but the public needs to know just how much money has been lost in the exchange-traded funds and stocks that track “going green.” Then think about the large companies and the open-ended mutual funds which track green investing.

If you combine the losses in the major stocks around solar, wind, and other alternative energies, the losses are billions and billions of dollars in the American companies alone. We have outlined the profile of each exchange traded fund and we have covered some of the losses elsewhere. We have tracked 20 stocks in a portfolio over the last year in the alternative energy sector and it is shocking that only 4 of the 20 stocks are not down by more than 50% from their 52-week highs. It is even worse that 10 of the 20 stocks are down by at least 70% from their 52-week highs if you include the implosions.

We used FinViz performance metrics for the returns, or a lack of returns. We counted the assets under management directly from each ETF’s website, although we would note that outflows of assets have been seen on top of absolute losses in share price.

First Trust Global Wind Energy (AMEX: FAN) is full of mostly foreign issue holdings and even the king of wind power called Vestas in Europe only has about a 6% weighting with other names coming from Europe and China. On Friday morning it was trading at $7.17 versus a 52-week range of $7.09 to $12.20. The loss here over the last year is about 38%. Assets under management: $24.8 million

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index (NASDAQ: QCLN) is very thinly traded and at $10.10 on Friday it has a 52-week range of $9.00 to $17.02. It aims to track the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index and is supposed to invest at least 90% of assets in common stocks that comprise the index. Some names are not exactly what investors might consider as green, but Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) and Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) are each weighted more than 7%. The loss here is 36.6% over the last year. Assets under management: $18.7 million

Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) is full of solar stocks which are both domestic and also trade as ADRs from foreign issues which you probably know well if you follow the solar sector. It invests at least 90% of its assets in common stocks which make up the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. At $22.77, the 52-week trading range is $22.00 to $88.70 and this has lost 69% over the last year. Assets under management: $60.7 million

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (AMEX: KWT) is also full of solar stocks, but many do not trade in the United States. The Van Eck Global ETF aims to track the Ardour Solar Energy Index and puts at least 80% of its assets into common stocks in the index. At $3.39 it has a 52-week range of $3.29 to $13.08 and this one is down 69.9% from a year ago. Assets under management: $12.7 million

PowerShares Global Wind Energy (NASDAQ: PWND) is thinly traded and aims to track the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Global Wind Energy Index. The ETF is full of companies which are not US-based and which are not even traded in the U.S. markets. The top 5 names account for more than 40% weighting and the names are China Longyuan Power Group, EDP Renovaveis, ENEL Green Power, Vestas Wind Systems, and China High Speed Transmission Equipment. At $6.49, its 52-week range is $6.41 to $11.29, and the shares are down 40.8% from a year ago. Assets under management: $13.4 million

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (AMEX: PBW) invests in all forms of clean energy and invests in companies globally. Eight of ten of its largest weightings do trade in the U.S. and it invests 80% of its assets into common stocks in the WilderHill Clean Energy Index. At $5.15 it has a 52-week trading range of $4.80 to $10.38 and it is down over 46% over the last year. Assets under management: $181.1 million

The only good news about the current value of more than $300 million ETFs above is that they have at least not fallen anywhere near as much as some of the key companies which Americans have tried to invest their retirement and speculative money in.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down over 84% over the last year and it still has a market value of $1.8 billion. The loss here is about $8 billion over the last year in what is supposed to be America’s best solar bet. First Solar generated $2.76 billion in sales in 2011. It is currently among the worst stock charts in technology.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) received a huge purchase of a majority stake by Total but that has not kept its shares from sliding and sliding. At $5.62, its 52-week range is $4.94 to $22.36, and shares are down over 63% over the last year and Total is down probably about 70% in value on this one. Its market value is now barely $650 million but it generated over $2.1 billion in sales in 2011.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down 69% over the last year and at $3.50 its 52-week range is $3.31 to $12.00. Its market value is still more than $800 million and its total revenue in 2011 was $2.71 billion. The loss is far worse when you consider that this was a $90 stock at the peak of the alternative energy and oil boom in 2008.

The losses here have been in the billions and it only scratches the surface on the alternative energy sector losses. This takes no consideration of the disappearance of Evergreen Solar, Energy Conversion, Solyndra, and Solar Trust. This also skips over the ethanol losses as well. We do not want to only seem one-sided here even if billions upon billions of real money has been lost in the alternative energy sector that is reminiscent of the losses after the dot-com bubble burst a decade ago. Some of the blame may be austerity and Chinese dumping, but investor losses do not come with an asterisk in the monthly statements.

The losses in alternative energy are massive, but oil companies have generated trillions of dollars in sales. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is worth $401 billion in market value and sales for all of 2011 were $486.4 billion. Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is worth about $203 billion in market value and it generated $253.7 billion in sales in 2011. This also marks the two-year anniversary of the BP PLC (NYSE: BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and BP generated the equivalent of $375 billion in sales in 2011.

It is sad to make jokes about losses this big, but a couple quickly come to mind:

Alternative energy stocks and ETFs have turned 401K plans into 201K or 101K plans.
How do make a small fortune? Take a large fortune and buy some alternative energy funds.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Activist Investor, Alternative Energy, Corporate Governance, Editor's Picks, Entertainment, Green Biz, Infrastructure, International Markets, Utilities Tagged: BP, CREE, CVX, FAN, FSLR, KWT, PBW, PWND, QLCN, SPWR, TAN, TSLA, WFR, XOM

At All-Time Lows… Can First Solar Manage To Avoid Death? (FSLR, TAN, PBW, SPWR, WFR)

Administrator — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:37:38 +0000

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is the king of U.S. solar companies. Despite a monstrous rally in the stock market year-to-date, First Solar shares hit a new 52-week low today. In fact, if you look at the “max” timeline on the chart, First Solar looks like it is back to where it started from. No 2007 to 2008 energy boom to cheer, no nothing! With another round of solar bankruptcies in the news leaving the U.S. taxpayer on the hook, one has to wonder about what the stock market is telling investors about First Solar as an investment.

Things are so bad that even the Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) hit a new low today and the $23.99 is under the prior reverse split-adjusted 52-week range of $24.20 to $88.70 today. PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is at least diversified in alternative and clean energy, but it is still down 1% at $5.45. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down 2.5% at $6.095 and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down 3.3% at $3.475 on the day. MEMC is at a new year low as well, but SunPower still is 20% or more above its 52-week low.

It is not just investors who have to worry here about solar loans. The taxpayer is on the hook for a lot with First Solar vie DOE loans. It is interesting that Wall Street is calling for $4.01 EPS on near-30% sales growth to almost $3.6 billion for 2012 and $4.29 EPS on 12% sales growth to $4.02 billion in sales in 2012. Margins in the sector have been compressing to the point that we just do not even believe these earnings estimates. How could we believe the earnings estimates any longer?

We would note that it was in February when Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson called First Solar a “Sell” and he went on to call the stock possibly a total write-off as it will start to lose money next year. That is not a call that an implosion is imminent, but long-term could be very different. Jim Cramer on CNBC has also warned that he has the ultimate fears in First Solar.

It is hard to keep pounding on this sector leader, but the chart is telling you that things are not just bad at First Solar. They must be growing to dire circumstances. This stock keeps hitting lower and lower lows. Any rally seen in recent weeks has been promptly sold. The taxpayer is on the hook here along with investors.

European austerity measures are going to continue. The solar dumping charges with met with tariffs that were almost not worth mentioning. Chinese solar panel firms have subsidies that allow them to sell below local costs.

In all of the past articles we have never mentioned that First Solar was challenging the all-time lows, but that now appears to be the case. After looking back at a MarketWatch article, First Solar’s IPO priced at 20 million shares for $20 per share after having increased in size and increased in the price range. After the IPO, the stock opened up at $24.50 and closed at $24.27 back in November 2006.

We did not even bother mentioning the management vacuum that the company is in. Solyndra appears to just be the tip of the iceberg here. Look at the Yahoo! Finance chart below, if you dare.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Alternative Energy, Bankruptcy, Green Biz, HI/LOW, Trading Alert Tagged: FSLR, PBW, SPWR, TAN, WFR

Will Taxpayers Get Burned By First Solar? (FSLR, TAN, PBW)

Administrator — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 15:39:48 +0000

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is getting crushed with an 9% loss in its stock this morning. The move is on the heels of earnings and a much lowered expectation for 2012 sales. The question to ask is not just whether or not the short sellers have more room to run on this one. The question to ask is whether or not the taxpayers will get left hanging here.

Solyndra’s huge Department of Energy loan implosion was painful enough at about $500 million. Most investors do not really focus on the notion that First Solar has a large amount of Department of Energy loans. First Solar ended the most recent quarter with cash and marketable securities of $788 million.

Getting a live tally on all of the Department of Energy loan guarantees is a bit murky, but as of last June it was put around $4.5 billion to First Solar alone. That figure does include a current project, which is being sold. Sadly, shares were up around $140 at that time.

UBS has cut the price target to $40 on First Solar, while Citigroup cut the target down to $45. LAst night came a report from Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital on CNBC calling for this to remain a SELL with the potentiality of a total write-off being possible as the company will start to lose money next year. The most extreme call is for a potential bankruptcy down the road, something we hope does not turn out to be the case.

If First Solar goes under, Solyndra could end up looking a small drop in the bucket. This is not a situation that will be front and center today nor will it be in the coming weeks. This is a longer-term concern, but still a valid concern.

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is down only 2.1% at $29.65 against an adjusted 52-week range of $24.20 to $89.00. The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) ETF is down only 1.7% at $5.86 against a 52-week range of $4.80 to $10.88. Frankly, it is surprising that these are not down worse.

First Solar shares are now down 9.8% at $32.80 and the volume of 5.6 million shares at 10:25 AM EST already has passed the average daily volume of 4.7 million shares.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Alternative Energy, Analyst Calls, Bankruptcy, Corporate Governance, Economy, Editor's Picks, Green Biz, Infrastructure, Politics, Regulation, Utilities Tagged: FSLR, PBW, TAN

First Solar: Can It Save the Solar Sector? (FSLR, CSIQ, LDK, TSL, TAN, ICLN, PBW, PBD, PZD, KWT)

247wallst — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 13:36:43 +0000

Earnings from global leader First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) are due tomorrow, and while EPS estimates for the company have fallen from just over $2/share to $0.92/share in the past three months, First Solar remains a top pick in the solar sector. Lowered expectations for the sector are also weighing on the ETFs focused on clean energy.

First Solar is expected to report EPS of $0.92 on revenue of $584 million. Last quarter the company posted EPS of $1.33. Chinese producer Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) today named a new CFO and also reported that its gross margins for the second quarter would be at the lower end of its outlook. LDK Solar Inc. (NYSE: LDK) and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) have also recently replaced CFOs as a variety of accounting issues have begun to plague Chinese solar makers.

Solar producers make up a significant portion of the investments in several clean energy ETFs. These funds include the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), the iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (NYSE: ICLN), the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW), the PowerShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBD), the PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (NYSE: PZD), and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT).

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) holds about $150 million in total assets, and First Solar is its largest holding, at more than 19%. Trina and SunPower Corp. account for another 9% of holdings. Year to date the best performers in the fund have been GT Solar International, Inc. and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd., neither of which makes modules. First Solar has lost more than -4.5% of its value so far this year, while GT Solar is up more than 66% and GCL-Poly is up more than 52%. LDK Solar (-28.36%), Canadian (-22.28%), and Trina (-16.14%) indicate the direction of Chinese solar makers’ shares. So far this year the fund is down -6.3%.

The iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (NYSE: ICLN) holds total assets of $67 million, but unlike TAN the fund invests in non-solar as well as solar stocks. The fund’s three largest holdings are First Solar, GT Solar, and Trina. Year to date the fund is off nearly -2%. Nearly a third of the fund’s holdings are in solar-related stocks.

The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW) holds total assets of about $415 million. The fund recently replaced First Solar as its top holding with Emcore Corp., a maker of solar cells and concentrating solar PV systems. Like ICLN, this fund is diversified throughout the clean energy sector, but year-to-date results have been poor, down -15.5%.

The PowerShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBD) is an equal weighted fund that holds about $180 million in assets among nearly 100 stocks, none of which accounts for more than 2% of holdings. The fund is down more than -5% so far this year.

The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (NYSE: PZD) holds about $148 million in total assets. The fund is styled as a mid-cap growth fund and includes 71 stocks spread across the spectrum of clean energy development. First Solar is the only solar PV maker in its top 20 holdings. Year to date the fund has returned 6.7%.

The Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is the newest and smallest of these clean energy funds. Assets total $25 million, and like TAN, the fund is narrowly focused on the solar sector. First Solar is the funds top holding at nearly 11%, followed by GT Solar. Trina and Suntech are among the top 10, which account for 64% of holdings. So far this year the fund is down more than -9%.

The solar sector is currently struggling with excess capacity, shrinking margins, and lower government subsidies. Many of the China-based companies are also plagued with accounting issues, raising questions about the companies’ financial footings.

Even if First Solar reports an outstanding second quarter (not terribly likely), the effect on the sector and on the ETFs that are heavily invested in solar stocks ought to remain muted.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: General Tagged: CSIQ, FSLR, ICLN, KWT, LDK, PBD, PBW, PZD, TAN, TSL

Opportunities & Risks In Clean Energy Funds (PBW, TSLA, SOLR, SQM, PPO, TAN, FSLR, MYBUF, TSL, SPWRA, GEX, CREE, ICLN, OEZVF, EOC, KWT, WFR)

Administrator — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 17:01:33 +0000

Clean energy funds first sprung up in about 2005, with the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (NYSE: PBW). Others have followed, but for the most part these funds have fairly low assets under management and the market for the funds is relatively limited as demonstrated by the volumes. The fall from grace after 2008′s alternative energy peak has not exactly been the greatest help in the world for these funds.

In addition to the PowerShares fund, we’ll take a quick look here at the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE: GEX), iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ: ICLN), and Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT).

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is a non-diversified index tracker. The largest of its 58 holdings is SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA) at 3%, followed by Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), GT Solar International Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE: SQM), and Polypore International Inc. (NYSE: PPO). The fund’s market value is $448.7 million, and its 52-week range is $7.98-$11.42. PBW’s NAV is 9.00.

Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) invests at least 90% of its assets in stocks included in the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. It’s top five holdings are First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) at 14.38%, Hong-Kong listed GCL Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. at 8.99%, Meyer Burger Technology AG (OTC: MYBUF), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) at 5.3%, and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA). Assets under management total $165.2 million and the NAV at June 7th was $7.12. The 52-week range is $6.12-$9.16.

Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE: GEX) tracks the price and yield performance of the Ardour Global Index, and invests at least 80% of assets in stocks included in that index. The fund’s top five holdings are First Solar at 8.8%, Vestas at 8.37%, Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) at 6.21%, Enel Green Power SpA at 6.1%, and Iberdrola Renovables SA at 5.73%. The fund has $140.3 million of assets under management and its NAV is $19.22. The shares’ 52-week range is $17.81-$22.76.

iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ: ICLN) tracks the price and yield performance of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index. The top five holdings are Germany’s Verbund AG (OTC: OEZVF) at 5.58%, Iberdrola Renovables at 5.47%, Empresa Nacional de Electricidad S.A. (NYSE: EOC) at 5.46%, China Longyuan at 5.44%, and SunPower at 5.4%. The fund’s net assets total $71.1 million and the NAV is $16.54. The shares’ 52-week range is $14.09-$19.00.

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is an index tracker for solar energy companies. It’s top five holdings are First Solar at 9.54%, MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) at 8.89%, Trina at 8.54%, SunPower at 6.35%, and Norway’s Renewable Energy Corp. ASA at 6.07%. The fund’s assets under management total just $29 million and its NAV is $10.55. The shares’ 52-week range is $9.04-$14.33.

Many of these funds (and their components) are down considerably and they are down so much against the 2008 peak-energy highs that many investors would rather not be reminded. 24/7 Wall St. has maintained for quite some time that many alternative energy investments may really just be leveraged oil bets in disguise. These have not even lived up to that universally when oil rose. Now investors will hope that the decommissioning of nuclear plants can be the next frontier for growth. If not, global austerity measures may force solar projects to actually be evaluated on their real underlying costs basis just like other projects.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Alternative Energy, ETF, Green Biz, Mutual Funds, Nuclear, Oil & Gas, Utilities Tagged: CREE, EOC, FSLR, GEX, ICLN, KWT, MYBUF, OEZVF, PBW, PPO, SOLR, SPWRA, SQM, TAN, TSL, TSLA, WFR

The Eight ETFs Which Owe Japan (KOL, TAN, KWT, PBW, EWV, UNG, GAZ, NAGS)

Administrator — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 18:35:19 +0000

The news coming out of Japan for its nuclear reactors is sadly starting to now get more media coverage than the vast death toll. The projected death toll is somewhere around 10,000 and now the fear is that radioactive material could soon be a seious issue. While the US stock markets were down more than 1% earlier, we are now looking less bad off than even Europe after its major markets closed down more than 1%. As you would expect, some sectors are actually winning today as a result.

Nuclear related shares are getting pounded now as politicians and activist groups are calling for a significantly geared down approach to nuclear approach now. So who wins? Think solar. Solar power plants melting down only causes black goo on the ground. Coal… who cares if it is dirty at this point compared to nuclear fallout. Wind and other alternative energy… Same for solar. Natural gas is back… Many power plants run on this, and if nuclear power gets curbed too much ahead then natural gas is going to benefit just like coal does. Here are eight ETFs that are trading higher as a direct result of the Japan quake knocking out the nuclear sector. Oh year, a “Short Japan Fund”…

Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) is up 1.75% at $47.01 against a 52-week range of $28.35 to $49.80.

Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) is up 6.3% at $7.83 against a 52-week trading range of $6.02 to $9.34. There is also the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) up 7.1% at $12.39 against a 52-week trading range of $9.04 to $14.33. PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is up 0.9% at $10.00 against a 52-week range of $4.00 (low from Flash Crash) to $11.42.

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWV) is up a whopping 15.6% at $39.30 against a 52-week range of $29.83 to $52.78… This one is 200% the inverse of the daily performance of the MSCI Japan Index.

United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG) is now up only 0.25% at $10.42 but this one was up as high as $10.78 earlier today. The iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: GAZ) is also now ‘only’ up 0.57% at $7.09 but it was up as high as $7.31 earlier today. Finally, the Teucrium Natural Gas ETV (NYSE: NAGS) is still up 3.1% at $22.97 but this one has extremely thin trading volume.

Japan is one of those situations that is unfolding as a tragedy and it will have an impact on GDP ahead. These are just the financial winners in exchange-traded products as far as what the stock market vote is today.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: ETF, International Markets, Nuclear, Oil & Gas Tagged: EWV, GAZ, KOL, KWT, NAGS, PBW, TAN, UNG

Twist of Fate: MEMC Now May Save Solar Stocks (WFR, SOLR, JASO, SPWRA, FSLR, TAN, PBW)

Administrator — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 18:22:03 +0000

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is leading solar related shares higher after its earnings. The irony is that MEMC is perhaps one of the larger disappointments in the world of solar investing for those who have followed the sector very long. What is perhaps more important than just MEMC’s earnings is that we are soon to have a flood of earnings reports from solar companies. At issue will be the 2011 guidance from many of the key producers. We are tracking key moves ahead of events in GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA), and in First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR). The news is even driving shares of Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) and the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW).

MEMC reported that its fourth quarter EPS was $0.25 on revenue of $850 million. Analysts had been expecting EPS of $0.34 on revenue of $901 million. On a non-GAAP basis, revenue totaled $949.5 billion, which includes adjustments for GAAP real estate and lease accounting. It is the guidance ahead that drove shares. For 2011, MEMC sees non-GAAP sales of $3.4 to 3.7 billion and earnings of $1.00 to $1.30 EPS. Estimates for all of 2011 were only $1.00 EPS and $2.65 billion in sales. MEMC shares are trading up 11.3% at $12.95 on the day against a 52-week range of $9.19 to $16.99.

Reporting after the close today is GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) and it is participating in the rally as well. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.38 EPS and $251.9 million in revenues. If it offers guidance, those estimates for next quarter ar $0.38 EPS and $228.9 million in revenues and the annual 2011 estimates (actually March-2012) $1.26 EPS and $869.13 million in revenues. Shares are up 2.7% at $11.50 and the 52-week range is $4.90 to $11.95. GT Solar shares are up 2.7% at $11.50 versus a 52-week range of $4.90 to $11.95.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) reports late next week. Of the recent solar names, it seems to have been battered more than others as analysts downgraded the shares. With a $1.2 billion market cap, shares are up today by over 6% to $7.40 versus a 52-week range of $4.22 to $10.24.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) reports on or about February 17, and its shares are up 6.5% at $14.75 today against a 52-week range of $9.61 to $22.19.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is one we are still awaiting an earnings date on. The company’s most recent guidance was given in December for a full 2011 outlook. On December 14, 2010, First Solar gave a 2011 outlook as follows: For 2011… net sales in the range of $3.7 to $3.9 billion, up about 46% year over year; the net sales forecast is comprised of $2.8 to $2.9 billion of module sales and $0.9 to $1.0 billion of EPC/project development sales. Earnings of between $8.75 to $9.50 EPS and consolidated operating income was put at $875 to $975 million with operating cash flows put at $1.0 to $1.1 billion for the year. First Solar also noted that it plans to invest $1.0 to $1.1 billion of capital to nearly double production capacity by year-end 2012, to maintain existing capacity and to add infrastructure to support growth. Shares of First Solar are up over 5% at $164.13 and shares hit a new 52-week high today of $165.90.

Another issue helping the sector is word that Germany has apparently reached terms on solar feed-in tariff cuts for 2011.

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is a pure-play ETF for solar stocks and it is up 4.8% at $8.51 today against a 52-week range of $6.02 to $9.34. The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW) has a large portion of its holdings tied to solar and its shares are up 1.9% at $10.88 versus a 52-week range of $4.00 to $11.10.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Alternative Energy, Earnings, Green Biz Tagged: FSLR, JASO, PBW, SOLR, SPWRA, TAN, WFR

The Best Solar Stock for 2011 (FSLR, STP, LDK, JASO, SPWRA, ENER, TSL, TAN, PBW)

Administrator — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 16:23:04 +0000

If there’s any single word that defines the solar market for 2011, it is “uncertainty.” Policy changes in Germany, France, the Czech Republic, and elsewhere in Europe are expected to slow growth in solar installations. Italy, the US, China, India, Canada, and other, smaller markets will pick up some of the slack, but probably not enough to soak up all the manufacturing increases that are coming on line in the new year.

Photo-voltaic solar installations are expected to outsell large-scale solar thermal projects, as governments keep a careful eye on spending and incentives. We’ll look only at solar PV companies in this story because that’s where the large, publicly traded companies compete. The solar PV players we’ll look at are First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK), JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), Sunpower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL).

Here’s a short table showing the tickers, the current price, the mean target price from Thomson Reuters, the implied upside to that target, and the 52-week trading range. We’ll have some comments on these companies following the chart.

Stock	Current	Target	Implied Gain	52-week Range
FSLR	$131.09	$153.34	16.97%	98.71 – 153.30
STP	$7.84	$10.03	27.93%	7.05 – 18.78
LDK	$10.08	$12.62	25.20%	4.97 – 15.10
JASO	$6.87	$11.69	70.16%	4.22 – 10.24
SPWRA	$13.02	$15.56	19.51%	9.61 – 26.35
ENER	$4.55	$5.08	11.65%	3.76 – 12.75
TSL	$23.17	$34.68	49.68%	14.85 – 31.89

Filed under: ADR, Alternative Energy, Analyst Calls, Green Biz, Utilities Tagged: ENER, FSLR, JASO, LDK, PBW, SPWRA, STP, TAN, TSL

SunPower & NRG Double Down on Solar (SPWRA, NRG, PCG, FSLR, WFR, TAN, PBW)

Administrator — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 17:27:56 +0000

The state of California has mandated that a third of its electricity come from renewable sources by the end of the decade. This has caused something of a boomlet in solar thermal and solar photovoltaic development within the state. The latest project to get the go-ahead is a 250-megawatt solar PV development called the California Valley Solar Ranch. NRG Solar, a subsidiary of NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA) will team up to build the plant, with NRG kicking in up to $450 million in funding and SunPower doing the design, construction, operation, and maintenance on the plant. The project has signed a 25-year power purchase agreement with Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (NYSE: PCG) for the 250 megawatts of electricity.

Both NRG and SunPower have made acquisitions in the last year of project pipelines. NRG is trying to get on top of renewable portfolio requirements, and SunPower wants a captive market for its solar PV panels. Other solar PV makers, including First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) have also purchased project development companies in an effort to widen their revenue streams.

The market for solar PV modules is expected to soften as a result of the economic weakness in Europe and slow recovery in the US. Prices for modules and cells are expected to fall in the first half of next year, and many of the solar companies that not invested in captive project pipelines will get squeezed even harder, at least until the second half of next year. We looked at some solar companies’ troubles in this story.

Clearly a nicely stuffed project pipeline alone won’t save SunPower or any other company from falling module prices and tumbling margins. The solar PV makers have got to wring out more from their production costs, or increase the efficiency of the cells they make. Neither is easy, and SunPower especially could have some trouble. It is the current market leader in efficiency, but its products are more costly than those from other makers.

Solar PV makers face an uncertain year in 2011. Prices are almost guaranteed to fall, competition from low-cost providers in China will be fierce, and a weak global economic recovery are all going to weigh on revenue and profits. Project pipelines will surely help. But will that be enough?

SunPower’s shares are up nearly 4% today, and the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is up about 3%, followed by the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW), up by about 2.5%.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Alternative Energy, Utilities Tagged: FSLR, NRG, PBW, PCG, SPWRA, TAN, WFR

Can Trina and Others Escape Solar Darkness? (TSL, LDK, STP, JASO, TAN, PBW, FSLR)

Administrator — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 22:03:31 +0000

Oil may still be above $80.00, but solar stocks are on skid row. The dollar/euro is heading the wrong way, new government uncertainty growing louder, and a concern over all major government subsidies being cut or being eliminated is really taking a toll on the sector. The obvious outcome of steady lower margins is also trumping the issue of revenue growth. We wanted to track some key solar names like Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), and JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO). Even the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) and the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) were down and out on the day. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was one of the only winners today.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) beat earnings and raised capacity projections ahead. It could not avoid the mud slide and shares closed down 6.5% at $22.32 versus a 52-week range of $14.85 to $31.89. Auriga USA research noted today on Trina, “Trina Solar provided a bigger beat and raise than even our bullish preview had expected. Higher sales and better cost programs led the charge, with bullish commentary on 2011 pricing and volume supporting our above consensus view on 2011. Qualitative fears rule the day, however, and continued volatility in the dollar/euro exchange rate will likely keep investors cautious until companies — TSL included — provide 1Q11 guidance. We maintain our Buy rating and $38 target on slightly increased 2011 estimates.” A $38 target implies upside of 70% to a $22.32 close. Unfortunately, the world is not heading the right way.

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) was noted as a possible double in a year, and the lower prices just made a double from the lows all that much more possible. This saw an 8.6% drop to $10.00 today, yet the 52-week range is $4.97 to $15.10. Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) closed down 1.8% at $7.14, but the stock managed to hit a new 52-week low of $7.05 today. Ouch. JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) continued its slide from highs with shares down 4.9% at $6.94. It is still up 100% from lows as the 52-week trading range is $3.85 to $10.24.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) managed to actually close up on the day. It is hard to celebrate a gain of 0.4% to $122.85, but this was a 4140 stock just about two weeks ago and it was over $150 a month ago.

The ETF picture shows the real directional issue in the sector today: Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) closed down 3.5% at $6.85 while the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) closed down 2.14% at $9.61.

Solar energy stocks often have severe moves up and severe moves down. When things are bad, they are awful; when things go right, everyone loves solar. It is a sector that if Clint Eastwood made a movie or documentary for it, he could name it “The good, the Bad, and the Fugly.” Today was the latter.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Alternative Energy, Green Biz Tagged: FSLR, JASO, LDK, PBW, STP, TAN, TSL