The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.3% at 83.728, almost 13% higher than a year ago. The GSCI commodity index fell about -0.4% to 651.87, with commodities prices mostly lower today on the stronger dollar. Corn fell to around $7.83/bushel today, on a forecast for some much-needed rain (our coverage here). WTI crude oil fell -4% today, closing at $88.14/barrel. Brent crude trades down -3.4% at $103.22/barrel. Natural gas is up 1.14% today to $3.116/thousand cubic feet. Gold settled at $1,577.40/ounce, down -0.3%.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 101 points to 12,721.46 (-0.79%), the NASDAQ fell more than 35 points (-1.20%) to 2,890.15, and the S&P 500 fell -0.89% or more than 12 points to 1,350.51.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) cut to ‘sell’ at Goldman Sachs; Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup; Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) maintained as ‘buy’ but removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs; Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NASDAQ: DECK) cut to ‘underperform’ at Sterne Agee; and Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) raised to ‘buy’ at Jefferies.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: CCE) is up 2.7% at $27.56; Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) is up 4.4% at $40.78; Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS) is up 4.6% at $35.40 (more coverage here); and McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is down -2.5% at $89.25 (more coverage here).

After markets close today we are set to hear from Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD), Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), Celanese Corp. (NYSE: CE), and VMWare Inc. (NYSE: VMW) among many others.

Before markets open tomorrow we are scheduled to get earnings results from AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Boyd Gaming Corp. (NYSE: BYD), E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (NYSE: DD), EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU), and United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS).

Some standouts from today include the following stocks:

Nexen Inc. (NYSE: NXY) is up 52.2% at $25.97 after posting a new 52-week high of $26.19 earlier today. The Canadian oil & gas producer is being acquired by China’s CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE: CEO) for $15.1 billion. More coverage here.

Intermune Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) is down -14.9% at $9.97. The drugmaker missed EPS estimates badly this morning.

Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) is up 28% at $73.16. The coffee roaster and retailer is being taken private in a deal worth about $1 billion. More coverage here.

GenOn Energy Inc. (NYSE: GEN) is up 27.2% at $2.32. The merchant power producer is being acquired by NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) for about $1.7 billion. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is giving a speech in the morning. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:58 a.m. – PMI flash reading for US from Markit Economics
• 10:00 a.m. – FHFA house price index
• 10:00 a.m. – Richmond Fed manufacturing index
• 11:30 a.m. – 4- and 52-week bill auctions
• 1:00 p.m. – 2-year note auction

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Paul Ausick

Here are Monday’s market winners and losers.

Biggest Winners

Shares of Nexen (NYSE: NXY) are up 52.64% to $26.04 on trading volume of 61.3 million shares. China’s state oil company CNOOC announced its intention to purchase Nexen for $15.1 billion, or $27.50 in cash per share. Before Monday, the 52-week high was $24.77.

Shares of Peet’s Coffee & Tea (NASDAQ: PEET) are up 29.20% to $73.85 on trading volume of 1.4 million shares. German coffee firm Joh. A Benckiser will acquire Peet’s for approximately $1 billion, or $73.50 a share. The 52-week high is $77.60.

Shares of GenOn Energy (NYSE: GEN) are up 24.18 to $2.26 on trading volume of 60.5 million shares. NRG Energy announced it would purchase rival GenOn for 1.7 billion in stock, creating the largest independent power producer in the United States. The 52-week high is $4.10.

Biggest Loser

Shares of InterMune (NASDAQ: ITMN) are down 12.81% to $10.21 on trading volume of 1.5 million shares. The drugmaker earned 1 cent a share in the second quarter, missing the 9 cents a share expected by Wall Street analysts. The 52-week low is $9.66.

Samuel Weigley

JAB owns approximately 81% of Coty Inc., which filed for an IPO at the end of June after failing in an acquisition bid for Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP). Coty’s offer for Avon topped $10.5 billion, but Avon was never interested in discussing a deal.

According to today’s announcement:

The transaction, which is structured as a one-step merger with Peet’s as the surviving corporation, is not subject to a financing condition and is expected to close in approximately three months, subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of shareholder and regulatory approvals. The transaction requires the affirmative vote of holders of a majority of the company’s outstanding shares, which will be sought at a special meeting of shareholders.

Peet’s, based in Emeryville, Calif., went public in 2001 and shares hit an all-time high of more than $77 earlier this year.

Shares are trading up 29.1% at $73.81 in a 52-week range of $51.16 to $77.60.

Paul Ausick

Kroger also said that it would not manufacture the pods itself, and a possible manufacturer is Green Mountain itself, which has said that it might “consider selectively” making up to four private-label brands itself in an effort to maintain its sales. Coffee giant The J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM), for example, already makes private-label products for Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DNKN) and its own Millstone branded coffees as well as Folgers.

Private-label branding can save consumers who switch to store brands up to 36% on grocery bills, according to recent research from a private-label industry group. And Consumer Reports magazine recently concluded that buying store brands can save $1,500 a year for a family that spends $100 a week on groceries. That’s a savings of about 29%.

Premium brands, of course, fight the store brands with appeals to taste, quality of ingredients, and exclusivity. And Green Mountain coffee recently topped a poll as the brand leader among US coffee drinkers. Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) did not even make the list, nor did Peet’s Coffee and Tea Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET).

Green Mountain starts out with a good lead, but keeping that lead in K-cups against competitors selling the same product for 30% less will be a real struggle. Margins will be very difficult to sustain, and without some private-labelling of its own, Green Mountain could be in very big trouble.

Shares are down about -7.3% in the late afternoon, at $21.45 after posting a new 52-week low of $21.06 earlier today. The previous range for Green Mountain was $21.77-$115.98.

Paul Ausick

The question now, of course, is whether Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), maker of Maxwell House and Gevalia brands among others, Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR), Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET), and Coffee Holding Co. Inc. (NASDAQ: JVA) will follow suit. Kraft would seem like a good bet to lower prices to compete in the retail space, but the premium coffee roasters are more likely to leave prices where they are as long as they can in order to make a little extra margin.

Last week’s price for arabica beans was about $1.90/pound. A year ago the price was just over $3.00/pound. Robusta (cheaper) beans currently cost about $1.14/pound, about 10% below the five-year high of $1.26/pound set last June.

A continued decline in arabica prices may force the premium roasters to lower prices because the story will hit the headlines and consumers will start making some noise about being gouged by the coffee companies. But that day is a ways off yet. But imagine, both gasoline and coffee prices falling at the same time. What an idea!

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 157 points to 12,862.23 (1.23%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 46 points (1.61%) to 2,905.66, and the S&P 500 rose 1.46% or more than 19 points to 1,344.90.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) raised to ‘outperform’ at Baird; Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) cut to ‘underperform’ at Jefferies; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) raised to ‘buy’ at Janney Capital; and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) started as ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is up more than 11% at $54.83 after posting a new 52-week high of $54.90 earlier (see our coverage here); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is up more than 13% at $9.12; PC Connection Inc. (NASDAQ: PCCC) is down nearly -20% at $10.22; Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) is down -0.73% at $48.98, but posted a new 52-week high of $49.92 earlier in the day; PerkinElmer Inc. (NYSE: PKI) is up more than 6% at $26.21; Beam Inc. (NYSE: BEAM) is up 2.4% at $54.28; Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. (NYSE: EL) is down -3.64% at $56.71 (more coverage here); and Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) is up more than 5% at $21.19.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: THLD) is up nearly 115% at $2.77. The pharmaceuticals firm has announced a global development deal with Germany’s Merck.

Tudou Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: TUDO) is up nearly 19% at $16.66. The Chinese online video company has signed a deal with Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) to provide a video platform for Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like social site.

Zoltek Cos. Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) is up nearly 39% at $13.14. The specialty fibers maker posted good earnings number and forecast continued growth in the market for wind turbines which use its carbon fibers in blade construction.

STR Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: STRI) is down nearly -20% at $9.08. The company manufactures materials used in solar PV modules, and lowered its fourth-quarter guidance this morning.

Mannkind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) is down nearly -13% at $2.15 after posting a new 52-week low of $2.14 earlier. The biotech company has priced its public offering of units containing one share of stock and warrant to purchase another 0.6 shares. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auction
• 3:00 p.m. – Treasury STRIPS

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE: EMN) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE: EW) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Janney Capital.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is often considered a rival despite the K-Cup relationship now. The downstream companies to watch after Starbucks reports earnings are Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) and Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBOU).  Peet’s is up more than 50% off of its year lows and Caribou has roughly doubled from its year lows.

The company slowed its domestic growth massively in its turnaround, it has committed again to price hikes, and now it is even targeting the after-work crowd by offering beer, wine, and premium food items on a test basis in a few spots in America later this year.  That effort is too soon to judge.  Even a logo change had no negative impact.

Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.49 EPS versus $0.45 a year ago, and revenue estimates are expected to be up more than 11% at $3.29 billion.  Estimates for the current quarter due in about 90 days are $0.38 EPS versus $0.34 a year earlier and on sales growth of almost 12% to $3.12 billion.

The chart offers little read for guidance since the stock hit all-time highs lately.  The moving average to watch are as follows: 20-day at $47.04; 50-day at $44.86; and 200-day at $39.81. 

Options traders appear to be braced for a move of up to about $1.40 or so in either direction if you use the February expiration.

As far as analysts and the current price of $47.78, the consensus target from Thomson Reuters is $48.71 and the 52-week range is $30.75 to $48.39.  Our take is that valuations are reaching a point that analysts may downgrade the stock on valuation unless the company blows the doors off the handle.

Still, this one has gone above and beyond what we expected as a peak value.  Thomson Reuters has September year-end estimates of $1.83 EPS for 2012 and $2.23 EPS for 2013.  That generates non-GAAP ratios of 26-times expected earnings for this year ahead and 21.5-times expected 2013 earnings.

JON C. OGG

The deal with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) has so far supposedly been to the advantage of Starbucks.  If you have watched the shares fall from the meteoric rise in Green Mountain and compare this drop to the rise of Starbucks it would seem obvious as to who won out in the deal.

Even the threat from smaller players like Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBOU) and Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) never did mount that full on assault that many thought might occur.

Starbucks has also pledged to grab even more retail shelf space, it has decided to grow its business internationally while only making opportunistic moves in America, and the company has started to reward shareholders with dividends.  Howard Schultz engineered a nearly perfect turnaround.

With shares having gone above the $45.00 mark today, this one is still north of our own internal comfort zone in share prices.  We are apparently too conservative by our prices though because Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target objective of $46.57.  With a consensus fiscal target of $1.83 EPS for the September-2012 year, Starbucks trades at almost 25-times its annual expected earnings.

Starbucks is up over 3% at $45.05 and the high for the day was $45.15.  The prior 52-week trading range is $30.75 to $45.00.

JON C. OGG

So… What are investors to think when a top shareholder files to sell shares?  Simple, they think that the easy gains have already been seen.  Caribou shares closed at $17.05 on Friday and the 52-week trading range was $8.50 to $17.40.  Yep, no bear market victim there.

As of July 3, 2011, Caribou had 554 coffeehouses, including 147 franchised locations, located throughout 20 states, District of Columbia, and nine international markets.

Caribou Coffee announced that an offering of up to 5.15 million shares by a selling shareholder, Caribou Holding Company Limited under the affiliate of Arcapita Bank B.S.C., is going to sell the shares and it is also granting underwriters an overallotment option for up to 772,245 additional shares.  Investors know that ‘insider sales’ mean that none of the funds will head to the company.

There can really be no shock that Caribou shares are down over 8% at $15.64 today.  What is interesting is that Caribou is acting as a sector leader today rather than a second-tier outfit.  Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is down 0.75% at $102.80, but Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is actually up with the market by 1.1% at $37.78.

Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) is another one of the last men standing after the coffee wars and its shares are down 1.1% at $56.63 today.

JON C. OGG