The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Reinstated as Neutral with $30 price target at Credit Suisse.
Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) Started as Outperform with $32 target at Credit Suisse.
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) Cut to Hold on Valuation at Argus.
Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Equity One Inc. (NYSE: EQY) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE: HIG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray; Maintained as Buy but raised price target to $49 at Argus.
Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE: KIM) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) Started as Underperform at William Blair.
Sandridge Energy Inc. (NYSE: SD) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Synaptics Inc. (NASDAQ: SYNA) Raised to Buy at Needham; Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Reiterated as Buy with $102 price target at Canaccord Genuity.
Vistaprint NV (NASDAQ: VPRT) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
ZOLL Medical Corporation (NASDAQ: ZOLL) maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) Started as Buy at Stern Agee.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Started as Buy at Societe Generale.
CareFusion Corporation (NYSE: CFN) Started as Market Perform at BMO.
Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) Started as Outperform with $60 target at Credit Suisse.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) cut estimates and cut target to $45 from $50 at Credit Suisse’ Maintained Sell at Argus.
Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late-Monday call).
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) Started as Buy at Stern Agee; Reiterated Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Lulelemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Started as Neutral at Macquarie.
Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) Started as Outperform at Macquarie.
Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) Cut to Hold at Argus.
QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) Started as Hold at Societe Generale.
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE: UNH) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Started as Underperform at Macquarie; Started as Outperform at FBR.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE: WHR) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE: BKD) Removed from Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List.
EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) Raised to Buy at Lazard.
Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) Cut to Market Perform at BMO Capital.
Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ: PTEN) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Peet’s Coffee and Tea (NASDAQ: PEET) Cut to Neutral at Janney.
Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) Raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
Theravance Inc. (NASDAQ: THRX) Started as Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
VeriSign Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

American Axle (NYSE: AXL) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Emulex (NYSE: ELX) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Progressive (NYSE: PGR) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Qwest (NYSE: Q) Raised to Market-Weight at Thomas Weisel.
Schlumerberger (NYSE: SLB) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Textron (NYSE: TXT) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week if you wish to be notified by email when the top upgrades and downgrades are out, for top day trader alerts, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG

• Accenture (ACN) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.
• Ameristar Casinos (ASCA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
• CarMax (KMX) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Dendreon (DNDN) Raised to Hold from Sell at McAdams Wright Ragen.
• Frontline Ltd. (FRO) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
• Methanex (MEOH) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James.
• Progressive (PGR) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
• VeriSign (VRSN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
• Waters (WAT) Raised to Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2009

• ADTRAN (ADTN) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
• Allianz (AZ) Started as Underperform at Jefferies.
• Cypress Semi (CY) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Ford (F) Started as Sell at Societe Generale.
• Gap Inc. (GPS) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
• General Motors (GM) Started as Sell at Societe Generale.
• Infineon (IFX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
• Lennar (LEN) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
• LM Ericsson (ERIC) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
• Maxim Integrated (MXIM) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Progressive (PGR) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
• Whole Foods (WFMI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
December 16, 2008

His annual investor letter is always an important read, although investors should really note that this should be viewed and interpreted as a "macrocosm" of Microcosms.  Warren Buffett will be the first to tell you he cannot predict the stock market, cannot exactly predict the economy, cannot predict the weather, and cannot predict the short-term implications on every stock out there.  But he smooths out all the news and noise from the long-term vision.  That is what a long-term value and income manager is supposed to do, particularly if his holding period is "Forever." If you look over his latest public stock investment holdings, you’ll see he still goes for the simple and easy to understand. We gave a list of candidates that could fall under his ambitions of a "whale of a deal," although this seems more like the past rather than the present or future.

So what are the implications of the Oracle of Omaha panning the insurance sector.  Of his $2.35 Billion in net earnings for the last quarter, $1.44 Billion of the total $2.35 Billion came from insurance underwriting and insurance investment income (61%).  For Q4 2006, the percentage of insurance-tied numbers was 60% of the $2.868 Billion in operating earnings.  For all of 2007, the percentage of insurance-tied numbers was 59% of the $9.634 Billion in operating income.

In his annual letter to shareholders, Mr. Buffett noted specifically that margins in insurance were going to be lower even if we had another disaster free year.  He even noted, “If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse.”  In the past two years he has joked about having the foresight to benefit from no disasters.  If that prediction isn’t harsh enough, try this one: “It is a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008. Prices are down, and exposures inexorably rise.”  Or better yet, "That party is over." 

Mr. Buffett has even gone out on a limb to predict the future Berkshire Hathaway as a whole will have breakeven or positive earnings.  He admitted the law of large numbers has caught up with Berkshire Hathaway.  But what happens if you are an executive or bean counter at OTHER insurance companies?

Berkshire Hathaway from best we can tell has not gotten mixed up with all of the leveraged and crazy CDO structures that couldn’t be explained.  That isn’t true elsewhere.  But every portfolio manager talks his or her own book.  There are many things that have yet to be resolved and there are likely to still be at least some failures from all this fallout.  Insurance companies will be in that boat too as their financial bets are frequently much farther out than that of banks. 

• Mr. Buffett has already made a backstop offer for the bond insurers to pick up their municipal assets on the cheap, which were rebuffed faster than the offers were made.  MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) are still a "pending situation" as far as ultimate long-term viability, and Berkshire Hathaway decided to open a competing municipal bond insurance operation to compete.
• American International Group (NYSE: AIG) has been hamstrung by leveraged loan and CDO exposure that was first disclosed as immaterial and somehow has grown to a quarterly loss of some $5 Billion.  It also has noted a total of $42.2 Billion of exposure to the troubled bond insurers, and it has written roughly $61 Billion of credit default swaps on CDO’s with some subprime collateral.  They are far from immune, AIG stock fell some 6.5% Friday alone to $46.86, and its 52-week trading range is $44.10 to $72.97.
• Everest Re Group, Ltd. (NYSE: RE) is one of the largest pure-play reinsurers out there, another arena in which Berkshire Hathaway is a giant.  It only fell 1% Friday to $96.88, and its 52-week trading range is $90.27 to $115.86.  They would not at all be immune, particularly after its profits fell some 90%.
• Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) is another insurance monster that saw shares fall another 3.75% to $69.91, and its 52-week trading range is $65,76 to $106.23.  Chubb (NYSE: CB) is yet another that saw a 3.1% drop Friday to $50.90, while its 52-week trading range is
• $45.65 to $55.99.
• Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) competes head to head with GEICO and it too saw a 3% drop on Friday to $18.33, while its 52-week trading range is $16.98 to $25.16.

Realistically, this list could just go on and on.  There is no reason to.  Most of the reports out there merely just cover his comments in case everyone doesn’t have the time to read through his endless letter.  We have one solid rule when we question anything in the financial markets, and the answer is almost always "FOLLOW THE MONEY."  Mr. Buffett is a great manager, and those who bash him based only upon the "today" really look like clowns.  Regardless, it’s almost like he is trying to prepare his holders for the worst again after two years of no catastrophes.  Maybe he is trying to talk down other insurance operations so he can buy them on the cheap or show how Berkshire Hathaway insurance subsidiaries have better balance sheets.  Either way, he’s talking up his book even if it was meant to sound cautious.

The fact that we noted "Buffett’s Loss Could Be Your Gain" after Barron’s panned this one change nothing about the situation.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2008

Kellwood (KWD) Women’s sportswear maker out of favor. Down to $19.42 from $34.84.

Sourceforge (LNUX) E-commerce and community website company has bad quarter. Drops to $2.57 from 52-week high of $5.55.

Triad Guaranty (TGIC) Mortgage company. Bad time to be doing that. Down to $15.68 from $58.62 as 52-week high.

Conexant Systems (CNXT) Still falling. $1.06 from 52-week high of $2.36.

Douglas A. McIntyre

These moves used to be considered robbing Peter to pay Paul, but in today’s investment climate companies are being rewarded for such actions.  Shares of Progressive had gone a bit stagnant now that many other auto insurance companies had copied their comparison shopping, and the GEICO Caveman probably didn’t help them out too much.

Progressive shares are up over 6% to $24.75, now above the mid-point of its $20.91 to $27.07 range over the last 52-weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
June 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.