Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) reports after the close on Tuesday and investors are still trying to get a better grasp on its business model as far as how it will make money.  The company surprised before.  Estimates are -$0.02 EPS on just over $83 million in sales and the market value is $2.2 billion.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 7

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) has estimates of $0.35 EPS and $1.05 billion in sales. With where its stock is around $14.50, this looks fairly valued so it will likely take good news or bad news to move the stock.

Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) has estimates of $0.91 EPS on just over $478.1 million in sales.

H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB) is expected to report $0.05 EPS and $700 million sales, but next quarter is the tax-season money quarter.  Next quarter targets are $2.24 EPS on $2.11 billion in sales.  To emphasize how much the tax season matters, the entire fiscal year-end of April 2012 is expected to be $3.01 billion.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is expected to report -$0.47 EPS and $287.66 million in sales.

THURSDAY, MARCH 8

A123 Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) failed to rally on Tuesday’s construction news.  Estimates are -$0.51 EPS on almost $48.5 million in revenues.  Shares are well under $2.00 now.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) is a ‘business update’ rather than a formal earnings release.  Estimates are $0.37 EPS and $426.8 million in sales.

Anheuser Busch Inbev SA (NYSE: BUD) has estimates of $0.91 EPS and $9.9 billion in sales.  We would remind investors that this is now translated from Euros now that this is not a U.S.-based company.

Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) is still down and out from its 2011 IPO but it is still very actively traded as a Facebook knock-off in China.  Renren is expected to report earnings of $0.02 EPS and almost $32.3 million in sales. Next quarter estimates are -$0.04 EPS on almost $30.9 million in sales.

Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) is expected to report earnings of $0.66 EPS and $3.5 billion in sales.

Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) is expected to report earnings of $1.13 EPS and $1.25 billion in sales.  Shares are down almost 15% from the 52-week high and the shares are still close to the consensus price target of $39.57.

Keep in mind on any of these companies that dates and estimates can change without notice.

JON C. OGG

We have broken these out by day and included Thomson Reuters consensus data on each.  Color has been added on some of the names as well.

MONDAY, MARCH 5

Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN) has already recovered handily from when alleged accounting woes were surrounding this company.  This is the outdoor advertiser in China.  Estimates are $0.61 EPS and $225.1 million in sales.

Teavana Holdings Inc. (NYSE: TEA) remains a premium company with great products and growth, but at a price for a small tea retail empire trading at close to 40-times next year’s expected earnings.  Estimates are $0.32 EPS on $67.8 million in sales.

Urban Outfitters Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) has recovered off of its lows but the company remains an early turnaround story.  The real question is what the growth opportunities are for the next decade compared to the growth of the last decade.  Earnings estimates are $0.20 EPS on $742.9 million in sales.

VeriFone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) has estimates of $0.52 EPS on about $417.5 million in sales.

TUESDAY, MARCH 6

Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) remains in limbo and investors are still trying to get a better grasp on its business model as far as how it will make money.  The company surprised before.  Estimates are -$0.02 EPS on almost $83 million in sales and the market value is $2.2 billion.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 7

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) has estimates of $0.35 EPS and $1.05 billion in sales.

Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) has estimates of $0.89 EPS on just over $478 million in sales.

H and R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB) is expected to report $0.05 EPS and $700 million sales, but next quarter is the tax-season money quarter and the estimates are currently $2.24 EPS on $2.11 billion in sales.  To emphasize how much the tax season matters, the entire fiscal year-end of April 2012 is expected to be $3.01 billion.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is expected to report -$0.47 EPS and $287.6 million in sales.  While this is a homebuilder and while it has been widely followed before, this is probably not going to be a sector-mover for homebuilders.

THURSDAY, MARCH 8

A123 Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) is challenged with shares now down under $2.00 and a weak performance late in the week.  Estimates are -$0.41 EPS on almost $53.7 million in revenues.  It seems sad that lithium-ion batteries are not doing well and around $1.80 it has a 52-week range of $1.51 to $8.70.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) is a ‘business update’ rather than a formal earnings release but investors will be watching its guidance.  Estimates are $0.37 EPS and $426.8 million in sales.

Anheuser Busch Inbev SA (NYSE: BUD) has estimates of $0.91 EPS and $9.9 billion in sales, but keep in mind that this is now translated from Euros now that this is not a U.S.-based company.

Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) is down massively from its 2011 IPO but it is still very actively traded as a Facebook knock-off in China.  Renren is expected to report earnings of $0.02 EPS and $32.3 million in sales.

Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) is expected to report earnings of $0.67 EPS and $3.5 billion in sales.

Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) is expected to report earnings of $1.13 EPS and $1.25 billion in sales.  Shares are down almost 15% from the 52-week high and the shares are still close to the consensus price target of $39.43.

Keep in mind on any of these companies that dates and estimates can change without notice.

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JON C. OGG

ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Coca-Cola Femsa (NYSE: KOF) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; Raised to Buy at S&P Equity Research.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) Cut to Sell at Wunderlich.
EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Maintained as Strong Buy and Value at Zacks.
Itron, Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) Cut to Sell at Wunderlich.
Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Reiterated Buy and $49 target at Argus.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: PTEN) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $62 at Argus.

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JON C. OGG

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) is at it again, but keep in mind that the stock has been very volatile and often moves away from the initial trend in the last few days.  Shares are indicated up 4% at $1.02.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) is trying to recover a tad after yesterday’s implosion that took away about half of its value.  Shares closed at $11.03 and the stock is indicated up around $11.20 in early indications.

Cirrus Logic Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS) met estimates but it looks like guidance is soft; shares are down 3.5% at $15.75 in the early indications.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is surging after last night’s earnings beat, in part due to a large buyback coming.  Shares are up 7% at $27.34 in early trading versus a 52-week range of $19.06 to $28.37.

Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) has lowered expectations for the year due to weaker than expected performance and likely due to higher commodity costs.  Shares are indicated down by about 35 at $48.58 and the 52-week trading range is $47.28 to $56.00.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is up over 9% at $163.20 in active trading after beating earnings and exceeding subscriber additions.  The 52-week range here is $47.56 to $174.40 and we have so far seen at least two analyst upgrades.

Netlist Inc. (NASDAQ: NLST) is up after yesterday’s patent award news around the cloud.  Shares closed at $3.41 and are up 11% at $3.79.

Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) is up after beating earnings expectations and on further job cuts.  Shares are indicated up almost 7% around $11.55 to $11.60.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) is getting hit after it lowered guidance.  Shares are down close to 10% and just above $46.00 after closing at $51.88 yesterday.

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JON C. OGG

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Removed from TD’s Action Buy List but target raised to $105.
Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) Cut to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late Wednesday call).
Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus; Cut to Underperform at FBR.
The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) Raised to Neutral at UBS.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Greenhill & Co. (NYSE: GHL) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Reiterated Outperform at FBR.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Target Cut to $28 from $30 at Barclays.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) Raised to Outperform at BMO.
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) Raised to Neutral at UBS.
Seagate Technology plc (NASDAQ: STX) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity (late Wednesday call).
Vodafone plc (NYSE: VOD) Raised to Buy at Nomura.

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JON C. OGG

We have provided the news or logic behind the gains as well as price. volume, and other relative data where applicable.

REGULATORY BOUNCES

MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is up 1.5% at $205.40 on over 2.6 million shares and Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is up 2.5% at $74.84 on almost 15 million shares.  These two are bouncing after being very much oversold on swipe fee regulation.  Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) is up again on continued hope that a recent regulatory boss has resigned that was deemed unfavorable to for-profit education companies, and shares are up 0.35% at $56.38.

OVER-SOLD BOUNCES

BSD Medical Corp. (NASDAQ: BSDM) is up over 7% at $1.48 on a recently oversold chart as this was just a $2.00 stock as recently as April 22.  Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) is just a bounce after a big drop this week, but shares are up 6.5% at $32.50 on double-volume.  Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is not just up, but it hit 52-week highs after beating earnings last night and due to an analyst call from Raymond James reiterating a BUY and taking the $55 target to $60 on the stock.  Shares are up 5.7% at $48.71.

EARNINGS GAINERS

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) is up 3.4% at $42.91 after bearing earnings handily and raising guidance next quarter and for the year.  Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is showing that the dollar store trade is not dead after it beat earnings and raised guidance; shares up over 3% at $51.58.  Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQL ROST) is up over 2% at $52.78 after beating earnings and claiming record margins. Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) beat earnings handily again as its store traffic recovers, sending shares up 4.6% at $29.75 on almost 6 million shares.  Aruba Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: ARUN) is one that was up more and is barely up now after beating earnings and seeing a Stifel Nicolaus upgrade, with shares up 0.3% at $11.61.  Staples Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) beat earnings but guidance was soft.  Staples was soft this morning then went up close to $22.00 and shares are currently 0.25% at $21.60.

Imagine how well these stocks would be doing today if the ticker-tape was not such a disaster.  As it stands right after 1:00 PM, the markets are sharply lower:

• DJIA is at 10,132.17, down 312.20 or -2.99%
• S&P500 is at 1,077.31, down 37.74 or -3.38%
• NASDAQ is at 2,211.01, down 87.36 or 3.80%

Longer-dated U.S. Treasury prices are about the only winners in town outside stocks; now the 10-year is yielding 3.21% and the 30-year is yielding down at 4.09%.  Gold is down about 0.6% around $1,184 per ounce and crude oil is getting wiped out with a drop of $5.24 to $64.63 around the contract roll-date.

JON C. OGG

AFLAC Inc. (NYSE: AFL) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James.
AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARMH) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) target raised to $1,000 at Susquehanna.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; targets raised at CIBC and TD.
The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been upgraded s far at Baird, Soleil, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL) Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) Raised to Hold from Sell at Morgan Joseph; Raised to Hold from Sell at Kaufman Bros.; Cut to Neutral from Buy at MKM Partners.
Premiere Global Services, Inc. (NYSE: PGI) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Sponsor: 5 best investments for 2010 – The next nine months represent a bold new era for investors.

We have compiled data and analysis here using Thomson Reuters consensus estimates, recent metrics offered by the companies, relative performance, and more.  As with what we have seen at most retail and apparel earnings this week and last, many of these are richly valued and probably cannot just hope to please the bulls by meeting estimates on cost cutting and inventory management and then giving cautious guidance.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) estimates are $0.09 EPS and $961.5 million, both higher than last week’s estimates; estimates for the holiday quarter are $0.57 EPS and $1.27 billion in revenues, both also higher than last week.  With shares at $24.60, its 52-week trading range is $9.21 to $26.00.  A look at forward annual earnings estimates of $1.13 EPS for Jan-2010 and $1.29 for Jan-2011 will bring up some of the same valuation concerns we have seen elsewhere in retail.

Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL) estimates are $0.13 EPS on $1.19 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter ahead estimates are $0.28 EPS and $1.29 billion in revenues.  The stock is probably not overly expensive at $11 at almost 18-times the $0.60 EPS target for FY Jan-2010 and 14.5-times the $0.73 EPS target for FY Jan-2011.  They are not exactly cheap either.  The 52-week trading range is $3.65 to $12.95.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is in a totally new light as the new CEO has really gotten this longstanding turnaround candidate turned around and heading in the right direction.  Things are good enough and not-bad enough that we aren’t calling Old Navy a dead brand thanks to the new efforts.  Estimates are $0.44 EPS and $3.57 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS and $4.15 billion in revenues.  The CEO deserves praise, but the question here is one of how to value Gap shares in looking ahead now that it is mature, has managed to get much of a turnaround under its belt considering the economy and peers, and since it is no longer the great growth story it once was.  Estimates are $1.50 EPS for FY Jan-2010 and $1.65 EPS for FY Jan-2011.  With a $22.20 price, Gap trades at 14.8-times this year’s earnings and trades at 13.5-times next year’s expected earnings.  That is not expensive in the current climate, particularly when you consider that it has provided an upside surprise for the last four quarters.  We don’t expect it to come any time soon, but we have always had Gap as a break-up candidate where it could break the three major brands apart.  The company also noted how October same-store sales were up 4% and the total sales rose 5% after seeing gains over at Banana Republic and Old Navy.  The Gap brand continues to drag the ship now.

Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) $0.84 EPS and $1.73 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter those estimates are $0.99 EPS and $1.92 billion in revenues.  With shares at $45.65 and with a 52-week trading range of $21.70 to $50.50, this doesn’t sound that expensive or like it has to blow numbers away to keep the bulls happy.  The off-price and home accessories retailer trades at 13.5-times expected Jan-2010 earnings estimates of $3.37 EPS and 12.5-times the expected Jan-2011 earnings estimates of $3.67 EPS.

The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) estimates are $0.70 EPS and $231.07 million in revenues; and estimates are $0.81 EPS and $269.94 million in revenues.  At $28.96, the retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women has a 52-week range of $13.57 to $39.09 and it trades at 11-times both the Jan-2010 estimates of $2.62 and Jan-2011 estimates of $2.63.  That sounds cheap, but the lack of growth is probably part of the reason when you consider about 6% top-line revenue growth from fiscal years Jan-2010 to Jan-2011.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) estimates are -$1.09 EPS on $9.92 billion in revenues.  For the ever-important holiday quarter the estimates are $2.64 EPS and $12.61 billion in revenues.  This has a huge premium close to 70-times this year’s expected earnings and about 50-times FY Jan-2011 estimates.  The premium is due to the old belief of the value of the dirt underneath the shops and because of brands and trademarks which can be sold or licensed.  At $76.00, the 52-week trading range is $26.80 to $79.35.  Calling the history here spotty is an understatement, yet shares continue to rally after selling off on bad news.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) still has a discrepancy from source to source on its earnings estimates so that is about all we will add: $1.38 EPS on $461.18 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.05 EPS on $463.78 million in revenues. The largest unquantifiable risk here is what happens in flu season and how protective Mommy is over Junior. With shares around $34.65, and the 52-week trading range is $16.45 to $37.68.

Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) is a young women’s apparel retailer.  Normally, we might not cover this one, but it is a retailer that has been very range-bound because of a turnaround and because of its mixed performance metrics.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $139.79 million in revenues for the past quarter, yet the coming holiday quarter-end estimates are $0.08 EPS and $155.19 million in revenues, yet the company gave guidance of $0.04.  We will hold off on forward valuation multiples because each penny in an EPS scenario for a $3.36 stock will skew the ratios.  October same-store sales were down 1.3%.

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) is not just in the apparel market, but steadfast in the retail market for middle and upper-middle class spending for the kitchen and house. Its estimates are $0.05 EPS and $686.1 million in revenues. For the important Christmas quarter the estimates are much higher at $0.38 EPS and $949.9 million in revenues.  At $20.66 and with a $4.35 to $22.25 52-week trading range, this company absolutely has to knock the cover off the ball here.  Otherwise, this trades at 62-times Jan-2010 fiscal estimates and 38-times Jan-2011 fiscal earnings estimates.  Meeting estimates and maintaining guidance won’t likely be enough here.

Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is the last of the retailers out on Thursday Estimates for the action sports equipment and apparel retailer are $0.15 EPS and $112.01 million in revenues for the last quarter, which is higher than estimates last week.  For the important holiday quarter-end ahead the estimates are $0.25 EPS and $131.17 million in revenues, also higher than last week. Unfortunately, its same store sales in October were off by -8.9% and that may erase its habit of beating estimates.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 17, 2009

We have provided estimates from Thomson Reuters, recent sale store sales data, share performance, and added color on what else to consider where applicable.

Saks Incorporated (NASDAQ: SKS) reports on Tuesday.  This is still deemed the troubled and challenged of the higher-end retailers, and it is after the sell-off seen so far in Nordstrom.  Earnings are expected to be -$0.12 EPS and $621.95 million in revenues.  The problem is that analysts still see a loss for the ever-important Q4 period of -$0.04 EPS and $792.7 million in revenues.  Investors are not exactly keen on retail plays that lose money in the holiday quarter.  That being said, it may take a “we should be profitable in Q4″ statement to garner much excitement.  Another issue is that Saks is expected to lose money not just for fiscal Jan-2010 but also for Jan-2011.  The good news is that Carlos Slim invested in it and it recently showed October same-store sales were up 0.7%.  At $6.00+ today, its 52-week range is $1.50 to $7.45.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is on deck next Wednesday, and we have already seen Wal-Mart and Costco data.  Estimates for the big box-club retailer are $0.45 EPS and $2.48 billion.  For the Q4 period the estimates are $0.97 EPS on $2.76 billion in revenues.  A significant problem for many investors is that BJ’s stock has been range-bound for some time despite some gains it has made.  The company’s same-store sales were -1.1%, but that included gasoline. At $36.50, the 52-week trading range is $27.26 to $40.77.

Gymboree Corp. (NASDAQ: GYMB) is also on deck for earnings on Wednesday.  The special situation and turnaround kid’s retail destination is 20% off of a recent 52-week high, but is still up about 200% from its 52-week low.  Earnings estimates are $1.10 EPS and $270.8 million in revenues.  For the holiday quarter those estimates are $1.12 EPS and $302.2 million in revenues.  While this is not quantifiable without seeing it, the notion that this is for kids does put its swine flu risks higher than most companies elsewhere in the retail stocks reporting next week.  Same-store sales were also down 4% for October.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) is on deck next Thursday, Nov. 19.  Estimates are $0.08 EPS and $957.6 million; estimates for the holiday quarter are $0.56 EPS and $1.26 billion in revenues.  With shares at $24.00, its 52-week trading range is $9.21 to $26.00.  A look at forward annual earnings estimates of $1.11 EPS for Jan-2010 and $1.26 for Jan-2011 will bring up some of the same valuation concerns we have seen elsewhere in retail.

Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL) is reporting next Thursday and estimates are $0.13 EPS on $1.19 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter ahead estimates are $0.28 EPS and $1.29 billion in revenues.  The stock is probably not overly expensive at $10.80 at 17.7-times the $0.61 EPS target for FY Jan-2010 and 14.5-times the $0.74 EPS target for FY Jan-2011.  They are not exactly cheap either.  The 52-week trading range is $3.65 to $12.95.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is also on deck next Thursday.  The new CEO has really gotten this longstanding turnaround candidate turned around and heading in the right direction.  We are not even calling Old Navy by the name of ‘Old Lamie’ any longer.  Estimates are $0.44 EPS and $3.57 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS and $4.15 billion in revenues die to higher inventory costs.  The CEO deserves praise, but the question here is one of how to value Gap shares.  It is mature and no longer the great growth story.  Estimates are $1.50 EPS for FY Jan-2010 and $1.65 EPS for FY Jan-2011.  With a $22.20 price, Gap trades at 14.8-times this year’s earnings and trades at 13.5-times next year’s expected earnings.  That is not expensive in the current climate, particularly when you consider that it has provided an upside surprise for each of the last four quarters.  We don’t expect it to come any time soon, but we have always had Gap as a break-up candidate where it could break the three major brands apart.  October same-store sales rose by 4% and the total sales rose 5% led by gains at Banana Republic and Old Navy, and dragged by Gap.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) is due next Thursday from Eddie Lampert and friends.  The shares are up massively, yet Eddie’s minions at the retail giant keep showing dull earnings.  Estimates are for another loss at -$1.09 EPS on $9.89 billion in revenues.  For the ever-important holiday quarter the estimates are $2.64 EPS and $12.6 billion in revenues.  This has a huge premium at over 70-times this year’s expected earnings of $0.85 EPS and about 50-times FY Jan-2011 estimates.  The premium is because there is a huge asset play here for Lampert’s real estate under the stores.  Investors are probably betting that Lampert traded well in investments too.  So the traditional P/E ratio here doesn’t matter.  At $72.40, the 52-week trading range is $26.80 to $79.35.  Sears has a history of very spotty earnings, yet shares are up significantly from lows and went well above our “stocks to double” price target.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) is also on deck next Thursday.  We had a severe discrepancy in estimates here when we were looking them up, so we are not going to provide that data on this stock.  Sorry.  We recently saw October sales metrics down 2%, but online sales were up 36% in October.  Again, the unquantifiable risk here is what happens in flu season because of the kid factor.  With shares around $35.00, and the 52-week trading range is $16.45 to $37.68.

Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) is on deck as a young women’s apparel retailer.  Normally, we might not cover this one, but it is a retailer that has been very range-bound because of a turnaround and because of its mixed performance metrics.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $139.79 million in revenues for the past quarter, yet the coming holiday quarter-end estimates are $0.08 EPS and $155.19 million in revenues, yet the company gave guidance of $0.04.  We will hold off on forward valuation multiples because each penny in an EPS scenario for a $3.36 stock will skew the ratios.  October same-store sales were down 1.3%.

Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is the last of the retailers we track for next Thursday.  As much as you have seen “Thursday” you may have figured that was never-ending.  Estimates for the action sports equipment and apparel retailer are $0.14 EPS and $111.89 million in revenues for the last quarter.  For the important holiday quarter-end ahead the estimates are $0.24 EPS and $130.97 million in revenues.  Before last quarter, Zumiez had a habit of beating estimates handily. Unfortunately, its same store sales in October were off by -8.9%.

Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) is on deck next Friday morning.  Estimates are $0.06 EPS and $476.2 million in revenues.  Shares are just under $13.00 and the 52-week trading range is $2.41 to $17.50.  While shares have recovered handily from 2008 lows, this one has never recaptured its mojo from when it lost its growth trajectory from 2000 to 2007.

Again, these estimates are likely to change slightly ahead of the actual earnings report next week.  This is also not every single company in the retail and apparel sector with earnings on deck and it follows a sloppy reaction from the retail and apparel reports from many peers this week.  The notion that many CEOs and CFOs this week have not been very clear on what to expect for the holiday season leaves us with even more pause after the significant stock runs we have seen.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is also on deck next Tuesday.  That one is large enough compared to the rest of the crowd that we are holding to give a very detailed analysis and preview on Monday.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 13, 2009

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill.
Chico’s FAS (CHS) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Children’s Place (PLCE) Started as Buy at BofA/Merrill.
Deutsche Bank (DB) Started as Outperform at FBR.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
International Game Tech (IGT) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Raised to overweight at Barclays.
Moody’s (MCO) Raised to Hold at Jefferies.
Waste Services (WSII) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
3PAR (PAR) Cut to Neutral at Merriman Curhan Ford.

Jon C. Ogg
July 15, 2009