24/7 Wall St. » POT

Fertilizer Maker Makes Hay on Nitrogen (AGU, CF, POT, MOS, MON)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:33:28 +0000

Getting any respect in the fertilizer business has been pretty tough so far this year. We’ll have to wait about an hour or so this morning to see if Agrium Corp. (NYSE: AGU) can defy history. The company reported first quarter results this morning, posting adjusted EPS of $1.32 on revenues of $3.63 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.99 on revenue of $2.98 billion.

Agrium attributed its increased sales to higher volumes and higher prices for nitrogen. Last week, CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) also blasted through estimates, but the company’s best seller was also its nitrogen products. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) missed earnings estimates on lower potash sales and margins (gross margins fell -56% year-over-year). The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) also missed on earnings as potash volumes fell and phosphate costs rose. Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) pounded EPS estimates, but analysts believe that sales were all pulled forward due to the warm weather.

Agrium and CF are less dependent on potash and phosphates than are the others, and the rise in nitrogen is directly related to its ability to boost yields on the same amount of acreage. Potash fertilizer is needed to ensure healthy plants, but its contribution yields is less important.

Whether demand for nitrogen will continue through the Northern Hemisphere’s growing season remains to be seen, but as more people demand more food on the same amount of acreage, sales and margins on nitrogen are likely to keep pace.

The catch in Agrium’s results is that the company’s first half adjusted EPS guidance is a relatively weak $5.50-$6.10. Analysts had been expecting $5.67 before today’s blowout number. Investors are likely to interpret the lowish guidance as an indication that Agrium’s sales were also pulled forward into the first quarter.

Shares of Agrium are trading up about 0.13% at $84.68 in a 52-week range of $60.15-$93.49.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Agriculture, Earnings, Food, Pre-Market Activity Tagged: AGU, CF, MON, MOS, POT

Potash Sales & Demand Remain Weaker Longer (POT, MOS)

Administrator — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:42:10 +0000

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) appears to have the fertilizer and potash sector off to some concerns during earnings season. The culprit appears to be weaker than expected demand followed by soft pricing. While shares had been weak ahead of earnings, selling is the trend.

Earnings came in at $0.56 EPS versus Thomson Reuters expectations of $0.63 EPS. The drop was 33% in raw earnings based on lower sales and volumes meeting higher operating costs per output unit. The company’s CEO noted that demand has taken longer to surface than it originally expected earlier this year, but he does expect that demand will accelerate through the rest of 2012. Weaker potash prices have been seen based on lower demand and based on higher competition.

As far as guidance for the second quarter, the company sees earnings in a range of $0.90 to $1.10 EPS against estimates of $1.07 EPS. The company is also lowering its fiscal 2012 annual earnings target to $3.20 to $3.60 per share from a prior range offered of $3.40 to $4.00 in earnings per share. The top of the range is now under the $3.61 or so consensus target.

Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) shares are indicated down about 2.3% at $43.25 against a 52-week range of $38.42 to $62.60 and the weakness appears to be elsewhere in competitors. The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) has not traded but the bid/ask range is indicated lower than the $53.20 close and its stock has been weak as well.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Agriculture, Earnings Tagged: MOS, POT

Monsanto Posts Big Numbers (MON, MOS, POT, CF, AGU)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 13:09:01 +0000

Seed and fertilizer maker Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) reported second fiscal quarter earnings this morning that set a record for the quarter. The company also boosted its EPS outlook for the full fiscal year.

Monsanto, along with Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT), CF Industries Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), has seen its share price rise steadily since the first of the year. Agrium and CF Industries are up around 30% year-to-date, while Monsanto is up about 17%, Potash Corp. up about 12%, and Mosaic up more than 4%.

Monsanto reported second quarter revenue of $4.75 billion compared with a consensus estimate of $4.53 and EPS of $2.24 compared with a consensus estimate of $2.12. The company also guided full-year EPS to $3.49-$3.54, slightly better than the consensus estimate of $3.51. The company’s CEO predicted continuing growth:

We’ve seen contributions from growth across crops and geographies, which position us well to deliver high-teens ongoing earnings growth this year

The company’s seeds and genomics business posted revenue of $3.9 billion, up $503 million from the same period a year ago. Monsanto attributed the increase to its sales of corn seed, particularly in the US. The company’s fertilizer business grew from $710 million in the second quarter a year ago to $824 million this year.

Shares of Monsanto are up about 1.6% in the pre-market at $83.09 in a 52-week range of $58.89-$83.95.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Agriculture, Commodities, Earnings, Food Tagged: AGU, CF, MON, MOS, POT

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ALU, AMZN, APOL, MT, T, CY, DK, EBAY, ESRX, GOOG, HFC, JNS, LVS, LOGI, JWN, POT, VZ, WPO, WFM, YHOO)

Administrator — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 12:23:23 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Thursday.

Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Sell with $2.00 target at S&P.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Cut to Hold at Argus.

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas.

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: CY) Raised to Buy at Lazard (late Wednesday call).

Delek US Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; named as value stock of the day at Zacks.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) Reiterated Buy and raised target from $65 to $67 at BofA/ML.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) Reiterated Buy and raised target from $60 to $65 at BofA/ML.

Logitech International (NASDAQ: LOGI) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox. We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls Tagged: ALU, AMZN, APOL, CY, DK, EBAY, ESRX, GOOG, HFC, JNS, JWN, LOGI, LVS, MT, POT, T, VZ, WFM, WPO, YHOO

Potash Fertilizer Makers Get Bump on US Planting Estimates (POT, MOS, CF)

Paul Ausick — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:03:39 +0000

US plantings of wheat and corn this year will be higher than the most recent US Department of Agriculture survey according to new survey results from Allendale Inc. cited by Bloomberg News. The firm forecasts that corn planting will rise to more than 95 million acres, higher than last year’s total of 91.9 million acres and higher than last month’s USDA forecast of 94 million acres. Wheat planting will rise to nearly 57 million acres.

Potash fertilizer makers are getting a nice share-price bump on the news, with Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) rising more than 5.5%, Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) up about 4.25%, and CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) up about 2.35%.

Shares of Potash Corp. and Mosaic are down about -17% and -24%, respectively, over the past 12 months. CF Industries’ shares are up about 46% in the same period, mostly on the strength of the demand for nitrogen fertilizer.

Filed under: Agriculture, Commodities, Food Tagged: CF, MOS, POT

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (XOM, NKE, POT, TSLA, AMGN, RRC, AXE, ARMH, CE, LLY, HP, LLL, MHP, MAT, PFE, VLO, VRNG, RSH, PAY, REE, FFN)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:06:33 +0000

All three major indexes opened higher this morning, but the strength didn’t last as the Chicago PMI number failed to meet expectations and came in lower even than last month’s reading. The lower reading on consumer confidence also supported sellers this morning. Nothing of note was concluded on the Greek debt swap, so that had little effect on the market one way or the other. Oil major Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reported earnings in-line with expectations, that wasn’t good enough for investors today (our coverage here). Crude oil is mixed today, with WTI crude down -0.32% at $98.46/barrel and Brent crude higher by 0.31% at $111.09/barrel. Gold closed today at $1,738.10/ounce, having gained 11% this month (our view here).

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 21 points to 12,632.91 (-0.16%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 2 points (0.07%) to 2,813.84, and the S&P 500 fell -0.05% or less than 1 point to 1,312.40.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) started as ‘buy’ at Jefferies; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $80 at Argus; and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) raised to ‘hold’ from ‘sell’ with a target price of $59 at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Anixter Inc. (NYSE: AXE) is down -3.7% at $65.25; ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) is up 1.7% at $28.84; Celanese Corp. (NYSE: CE) is down -0.95% at $48.84; Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is up 1.35% at $39.78; Exxon Mobil is down -1.98% at $83.80; Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP) is up 2.2% at $61.64; L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LLL) is up 1.3% at $70.49; McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc. (NYSE: MHP) is down -0.5% at $46.09; Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) is up 5.1% at $31.04 after posting a new 52-week high today of $31.49; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down -0.8% at $21.42; and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is down -0.73% at $24.10.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Vringo Inc. (NASDAQ: VRNG) is up nearly 21% at $1.40. The social media software maker is apparently basking in the glow of the coming IPO of Facebook. See our coverage here.

RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) is down nearly -30% at $7.19 after setting a new 52-week low of $7.15 earlier today. The social media software maker is apparently basking in the glow of the coming IPO of Facebook. See our coverage here.

Verifone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is up more than 8% at $42.61. The payment systems maker is getting a boost from a plan by Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) to subsidize the installation of new card readers that use a microchip rather than a magnetic stripe to store customer information.

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX: REE) is up more than 17% at $7.22. The rare earth minerals miner is likely gaining after a ruling from the WTO that China’s restriction on rare earth minerals’ exports violates global trade rules.

FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) is up about 19% at $1.26. The adult social media company is likely also being bought up on the prospective Facebook IPO.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Automakers will be releasing sales figures for January throughout the day. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
7:30 a.m. – Challenger Job-cut data
8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report
10:00 a.m. – ISM manufacturing index
10:00 a.m. – Construction spending
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

Paul Ausick

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire Tagged: AMGN, ARMH, AXE, CE, FFN, HP, LLL, LLY, MAT, MHP, NKE, PAY, PFE, POT, REE, RRC, RSH, TSLA, VLO, VRNG, XOM

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMGN, AON, EQT, EXEL, IPI, ERIC, MDVN, NKE, NIHD, NYX, POT, RAX, RRC, SYMC, TSLA, UA, UNH)

Administrator — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:27:50 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Tuesday morning.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $80 at Argus.
AON Corporation (NYSE: AON) Raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) Raised to Hold from Sell with $50 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Maintained Buy but target now at $14 from $19 at Argus.
Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) Raised to Buy at Argus.
NII Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX) named Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.
Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) Raised to Hold from Sell with $59 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Reiterated Buy and $24.00 price target at Argus.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Raised to Buy at Needham.
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls Tagged: AMGN, AON, EQT, ERIC, EXEL, IPI, MDVN, NIHD, NKE, NYX, POT, RAX, RRC, SYMC, TSLA, UA, UNH

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (GD, VALE, GMCR, GLW, CHK, ARG, ACAT, T, BMY, CAT, CY, LMT, MKC, MWW, POT, RTN, VIST, RNWK, MNTA, NFLX, EFSC)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 21:08:29 +0000

All three major US indexes opened higher this morning, but enthusiasm tapered off quickly and steadily, if not sharply. A drop in the number of new home sales and a smaller-than-expected rise in the leading economic indicators index. Hope that talks between Greece and its creditors would yield an agreement also pushed markets higher. But the weak housing report and no further news from Europe kept share prices moving down. WTI crude gained 0.35% at $99.75/barrel and Brent crude is up 1.02% at $110.93. Gold is higher by 1.27% at $1,724.60.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 22 points to 12,734.63 (-0.18%), the NASDAQ fell about 13 points (-0.46%) to 2,805.28, and the S&P 500 fell -0.57% or nearly 7 points to 1,318.45.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) cut to ‘perform’ at Oppenheimer; Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) cut to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank; Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) started as ‘perform’ at Williams Capital; Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) cut to ‘underweight’ at Morgan Stanley; and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) cut to ‘underweight’ at JPMorgan.

Earnings reports since markets closed on last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Airgas Inc. (NYSE: ARG) is down -3.66% at $77.29; Arctic Cat Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAT) is up more than 19% at $28.40 after posting a new 52-week high of $29.20 earlier today; AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) is down -2.65% at $29.41; Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is down -0.92% at $32.40; Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is up 1.95% at $111.18; Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: CY) is down more than -11% at $17.03; Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) is up 0.95% at $82.51; McCormick & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MKC) is up 0.90% at $78.55; Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) is down more than -20% at $7.18; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) is up 1.61% at $45.96; and Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) is up 0.34% at $49.88.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

VIST Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: VIST) is up more than 62% at $11.20 after posting a new 52-week high of $11.50 earlier today. The bank holding company has agreed to be acquired by Tompkins Financial Corp. (AMEX: TMP) in an all-stock deal at an 86% premium to last night’s closing price, or about $85 million.

RealNetworks Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK) is up more than 35% at $9.98. The digital media company has sold a video codec and a number of patents to Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) for $120 million.

Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MNTA) is down nearly -21% at $15.13. The biotechnology company lost its bid for an injunction against certain competitors.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is up about 22% at $116.01. The digital video streaming and rental company reported a better-than-expected number of new subscribers after markets closed last night.

Enterprise Financial Services Corp. (NASDAQ: EFSC) is down more than -19% at $12.51. The bank holding company will restate earnings for 2010 and the first three quarters of 2011 and expects to dilute 2010 earnings by half as a result.

Stay tuned for Friday. New York Fed President William Dudley is giving a speech in the morning. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – US GDP report
9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: ACAT, ARG, BMY, CAT, CHK, CY, EFSC, GD, GLW, GMCR, LMT, MKC, MNTA, MWW, NFLX, POT, RNWK, RTN, T, VALE, VIST

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (BZH, BHP, CCL, FDX, GGP, INTC, LLTC, LOGI, MTH, PNRA, POT, RYL, STLD, SF, TSLA, USB, WYNN)

Administrator — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:24:06 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Tuesday morning.

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) Raised to Buy with $37 target at Goldman Sachs.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Raised to Buy at Wunderlich.
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: BHP, BZH, CCL, FDX, GGP, INTC, LLTC, LOGI, MTH, PNRA, POT, RYL, SF, STLD, TSLA, USB, WYNN

Is Corn This Serious For Potash & Fertilizer? Yes, Maybe (MOS, POT, CF, IPI, MOO)

Administrator — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:26:21 +0000

Fertilizer stocks are on skid row after the U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed that the unsold corn supplies from December were down about 1% less than what analysts were expecting. Like it or not, corn is a key driver and the fertilizer and potash stocks are taking it on the chin.

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is down by about 3.6% at $53.03 on close to 4 million shares, against a 52-week range of $44.86 to $89.24. The larger rival and former takeover target of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) is down by 3.8% at $42.12 versus a 52-week range of $38.42 to $63.97.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) is down by 3.7% at $161.00 and its 52-week trading range is $115.34 to $192.70.

Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI) is down the least with shares down “only 2.6%” on the day at $24.07 and against a 52-week range of $20.75 to $40.22.

Using an exchange traded fund can emphasize just how bad things are and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down 1.2% at $49.39 versus a 52-week range of $39.86 to $57.93.

With so much corn used in food for humans, ethanol, and animal feedstocks, corn unfortunately is a key driver for the fertilizer and potash markets.

Sadly, things brings up the question… Just how much do the potash and fertilizer markets depend upon the taxpayer-funded farm subsidies in America? Probably more than any of us care to think.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Agriculture, Commodities, Economy, Politics, Tax Tagged: CF, IPI, MOO, MOS, POT