24/7 Wall St. wanted to take a look at some of the biggest gains in the biggest stocks that matter in America.  We took a look at gains in some of the most widely held stocks.  We found the massive gains in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL), and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC).  Apple is up 330%, and it is not even first on the list of companies covered.

In order for the DJIA components to be on the list, they had to be up 100% at the one-year crash.  We included other big gainers that were also widely held, large employers with products that are widely used.  Below is a chart showing the closing price of Tuesday, the last day of the two-year mark.  The chart also includes consensus price targets from Thomson Reuters for investors to see if analysts still see upside from today now that the gains have been so large.  We also included the lows of March 2009, but these were not all the exact lows on the March 9, 2009 close as many of them missed the calendar by a bit due to sector flavor of the day.  The gain marks the gain from the March 2009 lows.  We also showed the 52-week trading range for each of these and the market cap today.

We also included a brief chart showing the March-2009 lows in each the key ETFs of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), and PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ).

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JON C. OGG

ETF/ETN (Ticker), followed by assets in billions
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) $91.9 billion
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) $56.4 billion
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM) $47.1 billion
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (NYSE: VWO)    $36.6 billion
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (NYSE: EFA) $36.5 billion
iShares S&P 500 Index (NYSE: IVV) $24.5 billion
PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) $21.9 billion
iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (NYSE: TIP) $19.2 billion
iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE: IWM) $18.3 billion
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE: VTI) $15.6 billion
TOTAL OF TOP 10 ETPs    $368 BILLION

BlackRock has issues some data today showing the $1 trillion mark has now reached $1.027 trillion on December 16, 2010.  The data is being supplied by BlackRock’s Global ETF Research and Implementation Strategy Team.

The list comprises of 894 ETFs with assets of $887.2 billion from 28 providers.  At the end of 2009 the U.S. ETF industry had 772 ETFs with assets of $705.5 billion from 29 providers.  As of 16 December 2010, there were 185 ETPs U.S.-listed with assets of $115.5 billion, from 20 providers, up from 142 ETPs with assets of $88.1 billion from 17 providers at the end of 2009.

The research shows that some 171 new ETFs have been launched in 2010, while 49 ETFs were delisted.  More importantly, BlackRock noted that there is a whopping count of 828 new ETF products in the pieline.

Net new asset flows signal a growing interest in both developed and emerging markets equity products, with less interest in money flows into fixed income and commodities. Through November, net new flows into North American equity ETFs/ETPs have totaled $21 billion, compared with just $2 billion in 2009.  Flows into emerging markets equity ETFs/ETPs totaled $29 billion against $27 billion last year. Of this total, flows into “multi-region” emerging markets products have totaled $26 billion year to date, compared with $16.7 billion last year.  Flows into fixed income products have totaled $31.2 billion, compared with $44.8 billion last year, and flows into commodity products have totaled $11.4 billion, compared with $32.6 billion last year.

The volume is growing as well, which you would expect.  The ETF average daily trading volume in U.S. dollars through November has risen 26 percent to $57.7 billion. ETF trading volume in November accounted for 24.1% of all United States equity turnover.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

The obvious difference between the two is that gold is a commodity and Apple is a public company.  Traditionally, each would appeal to a different class of investors. In this special case, however, the outlook for the economy and investments are such that each has been and may continue to be among the best investments in any market available to retail investors. 

Analysts are bullish and then some. The degree of the bullishness is nearly the same between Apple and gold.  Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of roughly $366.00 on Apple.  That implies 14% upside from the $321.00 current share price.  Goldman Sachs recently showed a 2011 gold price peak of $1,690.00 per ounce and a peak price of $1,750.00 per ounce in 2012.  These gold targets would imply $167 or so for the GLD in 2011.  These numbers imply about 20% upside in the GLD.   Almost any portfolio recommendation from Jim Cramer or other financial professionals, is likely to include both gold and Apple.

Outperforming is the norm. 2010 has been a stellar year for both Apple and for gold, with each outperforming the S&P 500 measured by the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) and the NASDAQ 100 measured by the PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ).  Using $321.00 for Apple and using $139.00 for the SPDR Gold Trust generates 2010 year-to-date performance of 52% for Apple and 29.5% for the GLD.  The year-to-date performance for the SPDR has risen 11.9% and the QQQQ has been 19.1%.  Apple has outperformed gold, but each has outperformed their relative markets substantially.

Zero income is paid out by both. Apple does not pay a dividend, and Steve Jobs has no plans to start paying one.  To get a dividend in gold, you have to either look at special investment fund invest in the gold miners and take the execution risk which comes with any corporate management.  Neither gold nor any other precious metal commodities send investors checks in the mail for income.  Apple investors own a share in the growth model of Apple’s massive success.

Those issues covered are Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN), MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS), and Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN)… most of which were flops this last week while the NASDAQ and the broader stocks performed well.  We also compared the Biotech HOLDRs (NYSE: BBH) and SPDR S&P Biotech (NYSE: XBI) to the PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) to highlight some of the underperformance.

Read the full report at BioHealthInvestor.com

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) also put in year highs as you would expect, and that high was $114.02, implying a DJIA price of 11,402 before premium and discount calculations and before management fees are taken into consideration.

As far as the S&P 500 Index, it is not quite at 52-week and 2010 highs.   The S&P500 price is 1,213.51.  The day’s range is 1,198.34 to 1,214.20 and the 52-week trading range is 1,010.91 to 1,219.80.

The NASDAQ also hit a 52-week high of 2,577.18 today; the day’s range is 2,564.05 to 2,577.18 and the 52-week range is 2,053.00 to 2,577.18.  The PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) is up 1.25% at $53.69 and the new 52-week range is $41.28 to $53.78.

JON C. OGG

Some of the key ETFs we see having longer-term pricing issues after QE2 are some of the main go-to ETFs for traders, but some of our ETFs are inverse and leveraged as well due to the volatility that is sought by traders.  Some of the ETF and ETN products were are tracking are Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) and Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ); SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: DGP); CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF), WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan (NYSE: CYB), and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP); then there is the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NYSE: TLT) and the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT).

Financial Stock ETF Winners, Hopefully… and Maybe Housing

Banks and financials have been under pressure due to mortgage put-back fears on mortgage fraud and foreclosure woes.  If any sector could be helped by QE2 and lower rates, it would be banks and financial stocks.  Despite that they are earning very low interest, they also have to pay almost no interest as well.  The triple-leverage funds from Direxion are perhaps the most liquid and most volatile of all in the sector.  There is the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) and Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ) that move at triple the intraday moves of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index.  The bullish shares trade close to 35 million shares a day and the bearish shares trade close to 45 million shares a day.  There is deemed a greater risk of tracking error on these due to the volatility, futures contracts, and more, but these are very volatile and very actively traded ETF products.

SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) stands to win if housing wins from QE2.  If the foreclosures can be cleared out and if the borrowing rates will stay down at historic lows, then perhaps more consumers will be able to afford houses in 2011 and 2012.  Whether they buy used homes and foreclosed homes is one thing, but many still want that new home that is all theirs and comes with no baggage.  This ETF is full of homebuilding stocks and is meant to track the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, which represents the homebuilding sector inside the larger S&P TMI.

QE2… A Bet Against Currencies or the Dollar

It seems that many developed nations are trying to devalue their currency simultaneously even if the dollar is not in favor.  The only safe bet for a country that might try to hold the line is Switzerland for their Swiss Franc, and the Swiss Franc can be traded via the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF).

Another exception is potentially the Chinese Yuan depending upon how the newly elected Congress decides what tone they will use against China.  Almost all investors agree that if China were to de-peg then the Chinese Yuan would rise appreciably against the US Dollar.  China’s reserves are higher and its economic fundamentals are among the best globally.  The two direct beneficiary ETF/ETN products here that will win if China is forced to de-peg the Yuan from the Dollar are WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan (NYSE: CYB).

If you think that US Dollar’s decline will not go on and on endlessly, then there is the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP).  This ETN tracks the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Futures index, which is comprised of long futures contracts rather than being comprised of raw currencies.  This is against a basket of currencies, and it is less volatile than many other direct single currency.

We tracked the DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ 100, Bonds, Oil, and Gold…. Most of these are being tracked via key ETF products of SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ), United States Oil (NYSE: USO), and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).  In bonds, we used the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) as liquid instruments to track the long-term bond market.

You already know that stocks and commodities rose in September and then again in October.  Historically that is a great measure and the market returns were some of the best seen in years on a relative basis.  Maybe the returns were not the same as companies selling iAnything.  Still, the returns were very impressive.

What is priced in depends upon whom you ask.  As far as the elections, it is priced in that the Democrats will likely lose the majority of the House of Representatives but not the Senate.  In short, gridlock is the consensus. If the market knows this or is factoring it in, then the (highly debated) efficient market theory would indicate that the market has priced it in.

As far as QE2, there is still some debate out there over just what quantitative easing will look like.  There is also a debate over its outcome.  The FOMC has no room to cut rates on the Fed Funds.   Last week there was a TIPS inflation adjusted T-Note auction that actually has a negative yield due to the calculations.  What is likely is that the Fed will increase the government balance sheet again by buying longer-dated Treasuries and maybe by buying mortgages or other debt instruments.  For argument sake, just assume it is Treasuries.  The goal is print money and then turn around and spend it to buy down the longer-end of the maturity curve to send yields lower.

In theory, stocks should reflect this as well if it is all really known.  Nearly gone is the debate over the double dip recession.  Gold is the new currency as it seems that major governments are in a race to devalue the currency values to drive up exports.  Oil runs often inversely with currencies, and the old inverse relation between stock market prices and oil prices is no longer.

Bonds saw a wild swing.  At the end of August, the Long-Bond yield was challenging 3.50% for the 30-Year.  That yield is now more than 4.0%.  The new anticipation is that QE2 will be present but will be sporadic and measured through time rather than all at once or all in a short period of time.  It almost sounds like a stock buyback now at this point.  Now Bill Gross has even implied that he long bull-market in bonds is over.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) showed a return of 4.97% in September and then in October it gained by an additional 2.76%.  That shows a cumulative return of 8.28% for the two months combined.

SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) showed a return of 5.22% in September and then in October it gained by an additional 3.38%.  That shows a cumulative return of 9.25% for the two months combined.

There are obviously millions of investors who own Apple shares indirectly because of their holdings of mutual funds in retirement accounts and because of exchange traded funds holding Apple.  Apple has a high weighting in the Internet Architecture HOLDRs (NYSE: IAH), PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ), Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), and in the iShares Dow Jones US Technology (NYSE: IYW).

Outside of those Apple-dominated ETFs, we have also noted earlier this week about how Apple investors are often speculating in the options contracts rather than in the stock.  They can buy the right to own shares for a few dollars per share in equivalent that way rather than paying $300+ per share.

As of September 25, 2010, Apple had approximately 46,600 full-time equivalent employees and an additional 2,800 full-time equivalent temporary employees and contractors.  That is huge growth considering the unemployment rate and the economy.  As of September 26, 2009, Apple had approximately 34,300 full-time equivalent employees and an additional 2,500 full-time equivalent temporary employees and contractors.

Here was the shocking figure from the Annual Report, and the whole thesis for how under-owned Apple shares are by the public… As of October 15, 2010, there were 29,405 shareholders of record. After asking a portfolio manager of a foundation just how many holders of Apple there were as a guess, he said “Maybe 5 million.”  Does this mean that only 29,405 individuals and institutions own Apple?  Of course not, but it is a shockingly low number of shareholders compared to other giant companies.  We have not heard back from Apple with any comments or formal answers but a call into media relations and shareholder services has been made.

Fidelity and each of the ten top holders likely count only as one holder each despite the notion that the top 10 holders were close to 25% of the entire share ownership and despite each of those having potentially thousands of clients.  Again, the issue at stake is direct ownership counting individuals or institutions which made a decision to buy the individual stock on the stock market.  Out of those thousands of employees there have to be many options from that old 2003 stock option plan, and there would have to be many direct Apple stock owners of that pool.  Also worth note is that it is highly possible that many shares held “in street name” at each brokerage firm are just counted as one holder.  Without a comment from Apple, the data is harder to know but other companies list much more detail on the number of holders.

We went back through time to see if Apple had other years where there was a higher or lower number of “holders of record.”  Shockingly, the number remains almost static through time.  The data is as follows:

• As of October 16, 2009, there were 30,573 shareholders of record.
• As of October 24, 2008, there were 30,445 shareholders of record.
• As of November 2, 2007, there were 30,336 shareholders of record.
• As of December 13, 2006, there were 29,317 shareholders of record.
• As of November 18, 2005, there were 28,333 shareholders of record.
• As of November 19, 2004, there were 28,518 shareholders of record.
• As of December 5, 2003, there were 29,015 shareholders of record.

This does not even hold a candle up to some other giant mega-cap stocks.  We took a look at Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).  Those are far wider owned as you will see.  The interesting thing is that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) trades at nearly double the share price of Apple, and its holders of record is also shockingly low.

The FOMC can no longer lower rates on the short-end.  The other side of the coin is that it can promise to keep rates low indefinitely.  Quantitative easing is accomplished by Uncle Sam expanding its balance sheet by buying up debt on the long-end of the yield curve and keeping rates at near-zero on the short-end.  The new verdict seems to be a few hundred billion rather than $1 trillion that will be purchased in Treasury and other debt instruments in the coming weeks.  Some would like to see more, others would prefer no QE2.

The consensus is no longer for a double-dip recession, but growth estimates for what lies ahead remain muted or have come down of late.  It seems that the current inflation is too low for the Fed targets but the recent trends in commodities may be taking care of much of the lack of inflation.  Extremely slow growth is not enough despite a recovery, and the hope is that more jobs will ultimately be created.

The FOMC wants inflation higher, yet it wants rates to stay very low.  These notions fly directly against each other in the long-term, and Ben Bernanke did not exactly get the name Helicopter Ben out of the blue.  It seems that our government is about to turn on the printing presses so it can buy debt.  Yep, devalue your currency but artificially keep the rates lower by buying the debt up.  It almost sounds like tech companies with stock options and non-GAAP earnings.

The rule is and has always been, “Don’t Fight the Fed.”  We can complain about the reckless nature of QE2 and the shackles it may put on the next two or three generations or we can generate trading strategies.

Gold in them thar hills…

When it comes to gold, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is king with millions of shares traded each day and with assets above $50 billion.  But what about leveraged ETF or ETN products?  If inflation is going to be manufactured and if gold keeps rising as world central banks race to devalue their currencies, then the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: DGP) is your answer.  Keep in mind that this is an exchange-traded note rather than a true asset trust with physical gold.  The “DGP” gives double the performance of gold.

What about betting for or against currencies?

If everyone is devaluing at the same time, then about the only safe bet for a country that might try to hold the line is Switzerland for their Swiss Franc.  The Swiss Franc can be bought either directly or it can be bought via the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF).

The other exception is potentially the Chinese Yuan if the U.S. Congressional move to try to wrangle China from such a tight currency peg.  If China were to de-peg, we have yet to find a real investor who says that China’s Yuan would actually fall against the US Dollar as China’s reserves and fundamentals are among the best globally.  There are two direct beneficiary ETF/ETN products here that will win if China is forced to appreciate the Yuan: WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan (NYSE: CYB) and the Market Vectors Chinese Renminbi/USD ETN (NYSE: CNY), although the latter is far less liquid in volume.

Do you not believe that the dollar drop will continue endlessly?  As most financial events peak, markets do usually attempt to discount the news and try to at least work toward the efficient market theory where markets price in almost all available information and discount the rest of the news (so what if it doesn’t work).  If you believe that the Greenback will actually rally soon if and/or when QE2 finally launches, then there is the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP).  In short, this is the ETN that tracks the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Futures index, but be advised that the index is comprised of long futures contracts  rather than of raw currency.  It is also nearly impossible to forget the one rule if you are a US investor: You are already long the US dollar.

As far as guidance, Apple is looking for about $4.80 EPS and revenues of about $23 billion.  The consensus from Thomson Reuters for the following quarterly report is $4.99 EPS and $22.06 billion in revenues.   For Apple, estimates had risen and we gave a full Apple analyst outlook layout featuring all of the most recent key research calls.

There are a couple of things to highlight here.  First are margins.  Gross margin was a bit low at 36.9%, down from last quarter’s 39.1% and last year’s 41.8%.  International sales are taking away a US-centric focus from the company now and in quarters ahead.  International sales keep growing as well because international sales were 57% of the quarter’s revenues versus 52% last quarter.  The 4.19 million iPads is a great feat, although some were expecting as many as 4.5 million.

INDIVIDUAL PRODUCT GAINS:

• sold 3.89 million Macs, up 27% from a year ago;
• sold 14.1 million iPhones, 91% over a year ago;
• sold 9.05 million iPods, a DECLINE of 11% from a year ago;
• sold 4.19 million iPads during the quarter.

The translation here is over $4 billion in after-tax earnings.  Steve Jobs left a door open for more hype throughout the last 70 or so days of the year when he noted, “We still have a few surprises left for the remainder of this calendar year.”

As a reminder Apple has the following weighting on each key ETF:

• over 22.7% of the Internet Architecture HOLDRs (NYSE: IAH);
• nearly 20% of the highly traded PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) weighting;
• over 11.7% of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK);
• more than 16% in the ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD),
• and more than 12% of the weighting of the iShares Dow Jones US Technology (NYSE: IYW).

Apple shares closed up 1% at $318.00 and the stock hit a new all-time high of $319.00 today.  The market cap at the close of trading was roughly $290.5 billion.  Apple shares were halted and the first resumption time we have is 4:50 AM EST.

JON C. OGG