Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is a company which often mirrors Oracle’s business trends when times are normalized.  While the companies have historically competed for different spending dollars from corporations and governments, a spending slowdown in the network is often the same on the customer relationship management side.  Cisco shares are down only 2% at $18.03.

Speaking of identical issues, if Oracle is slowing then “The Baby Oracle” of Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) has to be facing many of the same issues.  Its shares are down 8% at $95.75 so far today.

If things are bad at Oracle, SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) is likely having a very hard time as well in the enterprise and CRM markets.  Its ADRs are the proof as they are down 5.4% at $52.70.

International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) is down 3.6% at $180.50 and shares are now down more than $10 from when the Warren Buffett investment news hit.  The company has a new CEO starting as well and it is hard to imagine that its IT operations on the enterprise and government side are not that different from how Oracle described its quarter and guidance. 

What about enterprise storage, and what about enterprise virtualization?  EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) and VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) are the perfect examples as much of the same spending dollars overlap here.  EMC shares are down 4% at $21.55 and VMware shares are down 8% at $78.00. 

Ditto for Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) with shares down 5.6% more at $39.65, although Red Hat shares had already been spanked yesterday after disappointing earnings as the stock went from about $46 to $42 on the news.

And what about Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) for security and storage solutions?  After another failed attempt at a share price breakout it shares are already back down at the bottom of a long-term trading range.  Symantec shares are trading down 3.1% at $15.15 and hit a new 52-week low.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and others had all indicated a slower spending climate but Oracle is not likely able to use the “Thailand flooding” example.  Intel is lower by less than 1% at $23.64.  Another surprise “only down a tad” is Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) with shares down only 0.55% at $25.88 on the day.  If things are slow on the consumer PC business and if enterprise spending and international currency woes are facing Oracle it would seem logical that Microsoft’s O/S sales are at risk too.

The iShares S&P North Amer Tech-Software (NYSE: IGV) are not super-active in trading volume but the ETF shares are down 4.5% at $53.33 on the day.

This is only a snapshot of the downstream fallout.  The real situation is much broader and now the hope has to reside that Oracle’s earnings debacle was a fluke.  Or maybe it is the curse of Sun Microsystems hanging over the company.

JON C. OGG

The company reported earnings of $0.28 EPS as revenues rose 23% to $290 million, but Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.26 EPS $289.6 million.  Red Hat has a history of beating earnings expectations and often giving better upside guidance.  The company offered guidance of $0.26 to $0.27 EPS and sales of $289 million to $292 million for the quarter and Thomson Reuters had consensus estimates of $0.26 EPS and revenue of about $292.5 million.

What seemed to be another disappointment was the organic billings gain of about 23% rather than north of 25% expected, although it is that high-beta that makes “only 23% a disappointment.  Is Red Hat recession-proof?  No.  Still, the company is perhaps better positioned and better insulated against harder times than many peers.

Shares closed Monday at $46.05 and the 52-week range is $31.77 to $53.42. Shares were down some 8.6% at $42.06 on almost 900,000 shares in the after-hours session on Monday and Tuesday’s trading indications are not much better so far.

The big issue here is how high of an earnings multiple Wall Street is willing to assign here.  Thomson Reuters has estimates at $1.05 EPS for fiscal February 2012 and estimates are $1.15 EPS for fiscal February 2013.  We are only one-quarter out from the fiscal year, so using a blended earnings estimate still generates a stock valued at around 39-times earnings even taking the after-hours share price drop into consideration.  Its market value is also still north of $8 billion after the drop, giving it a forward revenue multiple of about 6.6-times on a blended basis.

The end game… Red Hat is a great company, but the stock needs to get back into the $30′s before “growth bargain hunters” step back in.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 99 points to 11,766.79 (-0.84%), the NASDAQ fell more than 32 points (-1.28%) to 2,523.14, and the S&P 500 fell -1.18X% or more than 14 points to 1,205.32.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (NASDAQ: TEVA) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a $52 price target at Canaccord Genuity. Other ratings actions today include AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) raised from ‘market perform’ to ‘outperform’ at Wells Fargo; AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) cut from ‘neutral’ to ‘sell’ at Goldman Sachs; Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; and General Growth Properties Inc. (NYSE: GGP) cut from ‘outperform’ to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Here are today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Shiloh Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: SHLO) is up 0.35% at $8.52; and Ennis, Inc. (NYSE: EBF) is down more than -4% at $12.89. After markets close today, Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) is scheduled to report third-quarter EPS of $0.26 on revenue of $289.6 million.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN) is up nearly 71% at $9.27. The regional grocery chain has agreed to a buyout offer worth about $560 million from Bi-Lo, another regional chain in the southeastern US. The offer of $9.50/share represents a premium of about 75% to Winn-Dixie’s Friday closing price.

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP) is up more than 17% at $2.60, after posting a new 52-week low earlier today. The dry bulk shipper has received a time charter for one of its four Capesize vessels for a period of 11-13 months.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ) is down more than -5% at $9.00. The social game maker held its IPO last Friday, but shares have not been able to hold the $10/share offering price. More coverage here.

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) is down more than -19% at $14.00, after posting a new 52-week low of $13.45 earlier today. The toy and consumer products maker lowered full-year earnings and sales guidance this morning.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is down nearly -4.5% at $4.97, after posting a new 52-week low of $4.93 earlier today. The bank has been hit with concerns over new capital reserve requirements and the effect that will have on profits.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Here are other noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – November housing starts report
• 1:00 p.m. – Five-year Treasury note auction

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Paul Ausick

We have broken these out by day and included consensus earnings and revenue estimates from Thomson Reuters.  We have also added in a price and recent trading activity and even added in the consensus analyst price targets.  Many of these also have some added color for traders to consider about the earnings reports.

Monday

Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) has estimates of $0.10 EPS and $810.2 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.19 EPS and $908.35 million in revenues.  Shares are trading around $13.90, the 52-week trading range is $12.39 to $21.54.  Wait a minute… EARNINGS rather than losses?  Go figure.

Tuesday

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) has estimates of $0.54 EPS and $1.03 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.59 EPS and $1.07 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $25.50, the 52-week trading range is $22.67 to $35.99.  Analysts still have a consensus target above $34.00, which seems a bit optimistic in the new normal where Apple’s mobility service is still crimping Flash.

Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) will show the cruise industry who is boss, maybe.  The estimates are $1.63 EPS and $4.91 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.36 EPS and $3.89 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $33.50, the 52-week trading range is $28.96 to $48.14.  Keep in mind that this report is the King-Maker quarter that dictates the earnings for the full year due to the summer travel months.  With an estimate of $1.63 EPS for the quarter, the full year is expected to be $2.46 EPS.  Analysts have a consensus target of $almost $44.75.

ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) has estimates of $0.31 EPS and $2.96 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.46 EPS and $3.3 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $24.00, the 52-week trading range is $21.02 to $26.60, and the consensus analyst target is $28.13.

Jefferies Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) has estimates of $0.26 EPS and $665.6 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.36 EPS and $746.1 million in revenues.  Shares are trading around $14.65, the 52-week trading range is $13.85 to $27.12, and the consensus target is $22.22.  Jefferies has not been immune from the market’s pounding of banks and brokerage firms, but this is one broker and i-banker expected to grow.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Underperform and cut estimates at Credit Suisse.
Apollo Residential Mortgage, In (NYSE: AMTG) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
BMC Software Inc. (NYSE: BMC) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Boston Properties Inc. (NYSE: BXP) Reiterated Buy with $120 target at Argus.
Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Reiterated Buy with $28 target at BofA/ML.
Crawford & Co. (NYSE: CRD-B) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: FRAN) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Started as Buy at Jefferies; Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: NCI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Reiterated Buy with $104 target at BofA/ML.

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Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) Raised to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
CenturyLink Inc. (NYSE: CTL) Maintained Buy with $48 target at Argus.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Maintained Outperform but cut target to $91 at Credit Suisse.
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) Maintained Outperform but Cut target to $27 at Credit Suisse.
France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN) Cut to Sell at S&P Equity Research (late Wednesday call).
Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) Cut to Neutral as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) Raised to Hold at Jefferies.
ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Started as Outperform at Leerink Swann.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

F5 (NASDAQ: FFIV) received an upgrade from Barclays which its shares up. Western Digital moved higher on postitive comments by Morgan Stanely

S&P 500 TOP 10 LISTS

BIGGEST STOCK PRICE GAINERS

FOR WEEK, MONTH (JUNE) AND YEAR-TO-DATE AS OF JUNE 23

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) Added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) Started as Neutral with $18 target at Credit Suisse.
Masco Corporation (NYSE: MAS) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Maintained Buy but Cut target to $12 at Gleacher & Co.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Reiterated Outperform and $42 target at Credit Suisse.
Pepco Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POM) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Raised to Buy at S&P Equity Research (late Thursday).
Southern Company (NYSE: SO) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
VeriSign Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late Thursday).

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

We have given a detailed preview on each, shown effective price data, and added in color if applicable.  It is amazing to see this many companies with earnings due.

Renren Inc, (NYSE: RENN) has been a pig of an IPO and we will get to see if this is just another China bash or if there is anything real under the hood on Monday.  Thomson Reuters has no estimates yet. Shares are trading around $6.92 and the 52-week trading range is $6.55 to $24.00.  Renren was touted as “The Facebook of China” but its stock and the scandal from right before the earnings turned it into “The Face$%^& of China.”

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) reports Tuesday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.51 EPS and $994.79 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.54 EPS and $1.02 million in revenues.  Shares are trading around $30.67 and the 52-week trading range is $25.45 to $35.99.

Barnes and Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) is interesting considering that it is at a premium to its implied buyout price.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.91 EPS and $1.39 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are -$0.88 EPS and $1.45 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $20.00 and the 52-week trading range is $8.45 to $20.46.

Late last month, Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) announced that it would no longer continue software development for the Itanium processor because the chip was nearing the end of its life.  Intel officials denied the charge, and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), Intel’s largest customer for Itanium, added its own comment, accusing Oracle of anti-customer behavior as they move to shore up their failing Sun server business.

Intel’s roadmap for Itanium includes two future products, the first of which is due in 2012. Competition at the high-end comes from Oracle’s Sun SPARC processors and the Power7 processor from IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM). It’s not to difficult to figure out why Oracle would stop developing for the Itanium platform, given its new interest in hardware. But both Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) had already canceled development of new software for Itanium.

H-P, co-developer with Intel of the Itanium chip, does not want to toss the Itanium. The Wall Street Journal reports that an H-P executive pointed out the mature features of the Itanium and the special chips and software designed by H-P that offer even higher levels of reliability than Xeon-based servers.

The WSJ goes on to note that according to IDC estimates Intel sold just 125,000 Itanium processors in 2010, compared with 14.55 million Xeon processors. Itanium is barely a rounding error if these figures are accurate.

Intel could be on the verge of warning on earnings, but not due to slow sales of Itanium.  The chip-making giant has failed to compete strongly in the smartphone/tablet market, which is growing faster than the market for desktop and laptop PCs. The company’s acquisition of Infineon Technologies’ wireless chip unit last August has so far produced nothing of note.

Whatever Intel plans to do with its Itanium processors won’t affect the company’s revenue or profits by very much. One possibility is that it could sell the Itanium to H-P, although it’s likely that such an offer has already been discussed and rejected by H-P. After all, what does it have to gain by owning Itanium? H-P is far better off having Intel, or some other buyer, messing with the silicon.

Intel shares are up slightly shortly after this morning’s opening, to $19.77, with the stock’s 52-week range of $17.60-$24.37.

Paul Ausick