24/7 Wall St. » RL

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (YUM, DMD, NLY, MS, UBS, AGU, CVS, RL, RAI, TWX, DIS, WYN, BWLD, CSCO, CZR, FFN, TNK, AKAM, NURO)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:06:49 +0000

The US equity markets opened slightly higher this morning, but soon turned around and spent the rest of the morning lower before returning to about even by afternoon. Equities could close at or near where they opened today. The lack of a decision on the Greek debt swap deal is leading investors to exercise caution both in Europe and the US. If the new Greek deal is anything like the last dozen or so, it will send markets up as soon as it is announced; and once people have a chance to read the details, markets will turn south again. Crude is higher today, with WTI up 0.51% at $98.91/barrel and Brent up 1.24% at $117.67/barrel. Gold closed down -0.73% at $1,735.60/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 6 points to 12,883.95 (0.04%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 12 points (0.41%) to 2,915.86, and the S&P 500 rose 0.22% or about 3 points to 1,349.97.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD) cut to ‘underweight’ at Morgan Stanley; Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) cut to ‘market perform’ at FBR; Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) cut to ‘hold’ at Collins Stewart; and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) cut to ‘sell’ at Deutsche Bank.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is up 2.16% at $82.95; CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS) is up 1.18% at $43.59 after posting a new 52-week high of $44.08 earlier in the day; Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) is up 9.8% at $172.50 after posting a new 52-week high of $178.47 earlier today; Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down -1.35% at $39.57; Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is up 0.3% at $38.21 after posting a new 52-week high of $39.23 earlier today; Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is up 0.95 at $41.34; Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (NYSE: WYN) is up 5.6% at $43.22 after posting a new 52-week high of $43.36 earlier today; and Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) is up nearly 17% at $82.04 after posting a new 52-week high of $82.45 earlier today.

Our preview of tomorrow’s earnings releases is here. Also see our coverage of earnings for Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) due after markets close today

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Ceasars Entertainment Corp. (NASDAQ: CZR) is up more than 70% at $15.32. The casino owner completed its IPO today, with 1.8 million shares going out at $9/share. We have some issues with this IPO.

FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) is up nearly 33% at $1.95. The adult dating site had no news today, so this must just be more halo effect from Facebook — or something else.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: TNK) is down more than -12% today at $3.98. The shipping company this morning priced a secondary stock offering of 15 million shares at $4/share.

Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is up about 2% at $34.33. The internet company acquired a Canadian company today, and reports earnings after markets close today. We have more coverage here.

NeuroMetrix Inc. (NASDAQ: NURO) is down more than -17% at $0.95 after posting a new 52-week low of $0.94 earlier today. The medical device maker priced a secondary offering of 10.5 million shares at $1/share this morning.

Stay tuned for Thursday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – New unemployment benefits claims
10:00 a.m. – Wholesale trade report
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
1:00 p.m. – Treasury 30-year bond auction
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

Paul Ausick

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire Tagged: AGU, AKAM, BWLD, CSCO, CVS, CZR, DIS, DMD, FFN, MS, NLY, NURO, RAI, RL, TNK, TWX, UBS, WYN, YUM

Top Earnings Previews For Wednesday (AKAM, CSCO, CSC, ENB, GRPN, IM, ICE, LVLT, MCO, NWSA, PNG, PAA, PRU, RL, RAI, S, TWX, VICL, V, WFM)

Administrator — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 18:30:51 +0000

We are entering into the last waves of the normalized quarterly earnings reports for companies with December 31 quarter-end dates, and we are entering the first waves of the earnings reports from companies with off-normal quarter-ends. Wednesday is going to be another busy day with many earnings.

The earnings previews are for the following: Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM); Atmel Corporation (NASDAQ: ATML); Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO); Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC); Enbridge Inc. (NYSE: ENB); Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN); Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM); IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE); Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT); Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO); News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA); PAA Natural Gas Storage L.P. (NYSE: PNG); Plains All American Pipeline L.P. (NYSE: PAA); Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE: PRU); Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL); Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI); Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S); Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX); Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL); Visa Inc. (NYSE: V); and Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM).

We have compiled earnings preview on each company using Thomson Reuters consensus estimates and added color on each if applicable. Some are market moving, some are sector moving, and some are just interesting for traders to watch around the earnings reports.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) has estimates of $0.40 EPS and $311.26 million in revenues.

Atmel Corporation (NASDAQ: ATML) has estimates of $0.09 EPS and $401.5 million in revenues. Growth is gone, but it still screens as value.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) has estimates of $0.43 EPS and $11.23 billion in revenues. Preliminary preview notes are available.

Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC) has estimates of $0.58 EPS and $3.98 billion in revenues. As a reminder, CSC has warned on earnings. This one shows up as a value stock in all sorts of investor screens but it is a value trap.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Calendar, Earnings Tagged: AKAM, CSC, CSCO, ENB, GRPN, ICE, IM, LVLT, MCO, NWSA, PAA, PNG, PRU, RAI, RL, S, TWX, V, VICL, WFM

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CCL, CHK, LNG, CQP, CREE, EXPE, FTE, GOOG, JNS, KR, MGM, ODP, OMX, PVH, RL, TEF, TXT)

Administrator — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:28:25 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Wednesday morning.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) Maintained Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.
Cheniere Energy Inc. (NYSE: LNG) Started as Outperform with $13.50 target at Credit Suisse
Cheniere Energy Partners, LP (NYSE: CQP) Started as Neutral with $20 target at Credit Suisse.
Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) maintained Buy with $33 target at Canaccord Genuity; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity; Cut to Neutral at Ticonderoga.
Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Started as Underweight at JPMorgan.
France Telecom S.A. (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO Capital.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays.
OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays.
PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH) Started as Neutral with $72 target at Credit Suisse.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Started as Outperform with $168 target at Credit Suisse.
Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: CCL, CHK, CQP, CREE, EXPE, FTE, GOOG, JNS, KR, LNG, MGM, ODP, OMX, PVH, RL, TEF, TXT

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (ALU, WBMD, URBN, RL, AWK, LEN, SVU, SHIP, LEDS, SNX, JASO, YRCW, CROX, HL, HRC)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 21:05:20 +0000

Equities opened modestly down this morning and the three major indexes have stayed within a few points of flat all day. The NASDAQ composite has remained in positive territory as the technology sector has benefited from a sharp buying trend in solar stocks. The EIA’s weekly petroleum report came in with a crude build of 5 million barrels, way above an expected gain of 1 million barrels. The report weighed on energy stocks since mid-morning. The euro has also been weaker today, adding a bit of push to equity buying. Crude oil is ending the day down, with WTI crude down about -1.3% at $100.92/barrel and Brent crude is down 0.64% at $112.55/barrel. Gold closed higher, at $1,640.50/ounce, after posting a four-week high earlier today.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 13 points to 12,449.08 (-0.11%), the NASDAQ rose more than 8 points (0.31%) to 2,710.76, and the S&P 500 rose 0.03% or less than 1 point to 1,292.44.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank; WebMD Health Corp. (NASDAQ: WBMD) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) cut to ‘sell’ at Citigroup; Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; and American Water Works Co. Inc. (NYSE: AWK) raised to ‘buy’ at Ladenburg Thalmann.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes: Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is up 6.3% at $22.07 after posting a new 52-week high of $22.53 earlier today; Supervalu Inc. (NYSE: SVU) is down nearly -13% at $7.33; Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP) is up more than 5.5% at $2.65; SemiLEDS Corp. (NASDAQ: LEDS) is more than 5% at $3.69; and Synnex Corp. (NYSE: SNX) is up more than 8% at $34.80.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is up more than 37% at $1.97. The Chinese solar maker is among several Chinese solar companies getting a boost today from news that solar panel prices appear to be stabilizing. We have more coverage here.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is up nearly 16% at $11.38. The transportation company has said it will auction 62 of its surplus US sites.

Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is up more than 17% at $18.73. The funny-shoe company has estimated that sales in the current fiscal year will top $1 billion for the first time.

Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL) is down about -22% at $4.55, after posting a new 52-week low of $4.25 earlier today. The silver miner has lowered its production estimate due to a forced closure of a shaft at its Nevada mine.

Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRC) is down nearly -12% at $30.45. The medical equipment maker and services provider lowered fourth-quarter and full-year guidance last night.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Initial unemployment benefits claims report
8:30 a.m. – Census Bureau retail sales report
10:00 a.m. – Census Bureau business inventories report
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas status report
1:00 p.m. – 30-year bond auction
2:00 p.m. – US Treasury budget
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: ALU, AWK, CROX, HL, HRC, JASO, LEDS, LEN, RL, SHIP, SNX, SVU, URBN, WBMD, YRCW

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AKS, ALU, AWK, APA, AF, AZK, DRI, HBAN, PHG, LTD, PIR, Rl, RL, UL, URBN, VIP, WBMD, WCC)

Administrator — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:07:18 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Wednesday morning.

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Outperform with $12 target at Credit Suisse.
Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE: AF) Cut to UNderweight at JPMorgan.
Aurizon Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AZK) named as Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HBAN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (NYSE: PHG) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LTD) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Started as Hold at Argus.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Unilever PLC (NYSE: UL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
WebMD Health Corporation (NASDAQ: WBMD) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
WESCO International (NYSE: WCC) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

If you enjoyed the Top Analyst Calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPOs, M&A, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AF, AKS, ALU, APA, AWK, AZK, DRI, HBAN, LTD, PHG, PIR, RL, UL, URBN, VIP, WBMD, WCC

America’s 10 Highest Paid CEOs (Which Are Worth It?)

Charles B. Stockdale — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 11:22:17 +0000

Several lists of the highest paid CEOs in America are published each year mostly by the business media and shareholder groups. All are based on proxy statements. Long before the lists are published, the boards of directors of these companies try to justify the compensation packages for shareholders. Investors often are skeptical of these defenses, and they should be. It is rare, but not impossible, to show that a chief executive deserves $50 million, or even $100 million a year.

Read America’s 10 Highest Paid CEOs

Based on the annual CEO Pay Survey 2011 by GMI, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 highest paid CEOs. We then analyzed company performance of the highest paid CEOs to determine which pay packages were worth the investment.

Such a review about management compensation is by its nature subjective and different from a board’s reasoning. A board may take into account the long-term record of a CEO who has held his or her job for several years. The board might set a pay package based on an extraordinary year. The directors also may pay a CEO well just before he or she retires. 24/7 Wall St. has downplayed each of these factors, but has not eliminated them. Our judgment of “fairness” is based on what shareholders received in the year as the CEO’s compensation year. Our primary measurements are revenue growth, earnings growth and stock price change.

This is the 24/7 Wall St. list of the 10 highest paid CEOs for 2010 and an analysis of whether their compensations were worth the payments in terms of shareholder returns. All compensation considerations used to set pay, which include board of director criteria from each company, come from SEC-filed proxies.

Filed under: General, Special Report Tagged: AET, CVS, GBL, GGP, MCK, OCR, RL, TRW, VNO, VRSK

Ten Highest Paid CEOs of 2010 (MCK, OCR, TRW, VRSK, CVS, GGP, RL, VNO, AET, GBL)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 17:07:59 +0000

When it comes to executive pay, the amounts paid to today’s highest paid CEOs equals the GDP of a small emerging nation. The ten most highly compensated CEOs according to a recent survey by GMI took home about $770 million, more than the GDP of Vanuatu or Samoa, among others.

The GMI survey measures what the firm calls “total realized compensation,” which is further defined as “compensation that has been received by the CEO, rather than any notional estimates, accounting costs, or other uncertainties.” Here’s the list:

CEO	Company	Ticker	Compensation
John Hammergren	McKesson Corp.	MCK	$145,266,971
Joel Gemunder	Omnicare, Inc.	OCR	$98,283,242
John Plant	TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.	TRW	$76,841,646
Frank Coyne	Verisk Analytics, Inc.	VRSK	$69,416,726
Thomas Ryan	CVS Caremark Corp.	CVS	$68,079,823
Adam Metz	General Growth Properties, Inc.	GGP	$66,707,460
Ralph Lauren	Polo Ralph Lauren Corp.	RL	$66,651,515
Michael Fascitelli	Vornado Realty Trust	VNO	$64,402,468
Ronald Williams	Aetna, Inc.	AET	$57,787,786
Mario Gabelli	GAMCO Investors Inc.	GBL	$56,608,736

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Compensation Tagged: AET, CVS, GBL, GGP, MCK, OCR, RL, TRW, VNO, VRSK

The Best Performing S&P Stocks of 2011 (SPY, OKE, AN, ROST, LTD, GR, TSO, EQT, ERTS, WFM, RL, TDC, RRC, MA, HUM, CMG, VFC, ISRG, BIIB, EP, COG)

Administrator — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 16:08:23 +0000

October may have been one of the best months of many of our lives in equities. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) rose by 10.9%. in October, but the year-to-date gain has been a mere 1.2% from the December 31, 2010 close to the close on October 31, 2011. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to see which stocks are up the most in percentage gains so far in 2011 in data provided by Capital IQ. This is a year-to-date move through the close of October 31, 2011. We have shown the S&P 500 Index gainers in order from lowest to highest. Another representation is how much implied upside there is to the Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target as well. Those which are trading above their consensus price target have been given a “caution” ahead of the pricing data.

ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) 37.1% year-to-date; at $76.05 the consensus price target is $76.60.

AutoNation Inc. (NYSE: AN) 38.1% year-to-date; caution: at $38.94 the consensus price target is $31.28.

Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) 38.7% year-to-date; caution: at $87.73 the consensus price target is $85.00.

Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD) 39.0% year-to-date; at $42.71 the consensus price target is $44.71.

Goodrich Corporation (NYSE: GR) 39.2% year-to-date; This is being acquired, so no color.

Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO) 39.9% year-to-date; at $25.94 the consensus price target is $20.31.

EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) 41.6% year-to-date; at $63.50 the consensus price target is $72.28.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) 42.6% year-to-date; at $23.35 the consensus price target is $25.63. This was previously listed as our top pick for the best video game stock for 2011.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) 42.6% year-to-date; at $72.12 the consensus price target is $74.47.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) 43.2% year-to-date; caution: at $158.79 the consensus price target is $150.00.

Teradata Corporation (NYSE: TDC) 44.9% year-to-date; at $59.66 the consensus price target is $60.56.

Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) 53.0% year-to-date; at $68.84 the consensus price target is $76.50.

Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) 54.9% year-to-date; at $347.24 the consensus price target is $374.82. It seems odd to see one financial stock here.

Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) 55.1% year-to-date; at $84.89 the consensus price target is $88.71. Health insurance has not been as bad of a business as the administration was looking for.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) 58.1% year-to-date; caution: at $336.12 the consensus price target is $328.45. The growth continues, but it is at or close to being fully valued.

V.F. Corporation (NYSE: VFC) 60.4% year-to-date; at $138.22 the consensus price target is $144.33.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) 68.3% year-to-date; caution: at $433.86 the consensus price target is $419.27. DaVinci sales remain robust as more surgeons are looking for robotic surgery capabilities.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 73.5% year-to-date; caution: at $116.36 the consensus priced target is $115.22. Here is how this compared to the rest of its peers before earnings season.

El Paso Corp. (NYSE: EP) 81.8% year-to-date; being acquired so no color.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: COG) 105.3% year-to-date; ; at $77.72 the consensus price target is $91.32.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: HI/LOW, Index, Trading Alert Tagged: AN, BIIB, CMG, COG, EP, EQT, ERTS, GR, HUM, ISRG, LTD, MA, OKE, RL, ROST, RRC, SPY, TDC, TSO, VFC, WFM

High-End Retail Lined Up for Holiday Sales Boost (TIF, SKS, M, JWN, RL, COH, WMT)

Administrator — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 14:40:37 +0000

British high-end clothier Burberry PLC reported that sales for its first six months of the year rose 30% on strong demand for its signature trenchcoats and accessories. The company noted that its revenue growth could slow down in the second half of the year, but attributed part of that to strong sales in the second half of last year. Does Burberry’s success point to a robust holiday season ahead for US luxury retailers?

High-end US retailers include Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), the Bloomingdale’s stores owned by Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Norstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), and Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH). Same-store sales have been good at these retailers and the outlook for the third quarter for all has been very solid.

Tiffany doesn’t report monthly sales, but its second-quarter revenues were 24% higher year-over-year and same-store sales in the quarter rose 22%. Earnings rose 33% and the company posted adjusted EPS of $0.86, more than 20% higher than analysts expected. For the company’s fiscal year, which ends in January 2012, Tiffany expects a sales boost in the high-teens, a rise in operating margin of 1%, and an increase in EPS from a previously guided $3.45-$3.55 to $3.65-$3.75.

For Tiffany’s third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $0.60 on revenues of $806 million, rising to EPS of $1.64 on revenues of $1.27 billion in the fourth quarter. The third quarter revenue estimate is lower than the company’s second-quarter total. That is likely due to an expected drop in sales in emerging countries, particularly China, where growth in the sales of luxury goods is expected to fall as the country’s economy cools off.

Saks Fifth Avenue reported same-store sales growth of 9.3% in September and a two-month jump of 8.0%. For the year-to-date, Saks’ same-store sales are up 11.5%. For the current quarter, which ends this month, Saks is expected to post revenue of $698 million and EPS of $0.09. For its fourth quarter, expectations rise to EPS of $0.16 on revenue of $916 million.

Macy’s reported same-store sales rose 4.9% in September and said that sales for the third and fourth quarters would be at the high-end of guidance at 4%-4.5%. Analysts are forecasting that Macy’s third-quarter EPS will be $0.16, rising to $1.66 in the fourth quarter. Revenue for the third quarter is forecast at $5.88 billion, rising to $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Nordstrom’s same-store sales jumped 10.7% in September, more than double analysts’ expectations. Third-quarter revenue is expected to reach $2.34 billion with EPS of $0.57. In the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to rise to $3.1 billion and EPS is forecast at $1.11.

Ralph Lauren does not report monthly sales. The company’s revenues are nearly equally split between its retail stores and its wholesale and licensing businesses. For the third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $2.23 on revenue of $1.84 billion. For the fourth quarter, EPS is expected to reach $1.74 on revenue of $1.77 billion. Compared with the same periods a year ago, third-quarter EPS is expected to rise nearly 7%, while fourth-quarter EPS is expected to rise by just over 1%.

Coach reported fiscal year 2011 numbers in August, including a jump in same-store sales of 10.6% for the year. For its first fiscal quarter of 2012, the company is expected to post EPS of $0.70 on revenue of $1.02 billion. For the second quarter, ending in December, EPS is expected to reach $1.14 on sales of $1.42 billion.

According to a recent survey, consumers with discretionary incomes above $250,000 plan to spend about 7% more during this year’s holiday season. [http://www.jckonline.com/2011/10/10/only-richest-consumers-spending-more-this-holiday] Those with incomes between $100,000 and $250,000, however, are expecting to spend about 17% less. For those with incomes below $100,000, spending will fall by 28%.

Those with discretionary incomes above $100,000 who say they plan to spend less this year are not worried about the economy. They claim that they already have too much stuff.

At the other end of the spectrum, an indicator of expectations at the lower end of the income distribution is the number of containers arriving at US ports. The Port of Long Beach is expecting a 15% drop year-over-year from last September, and the number of containers coming into New York-New Jersey is only flat with last year.

Jewelry and high-end handbags don’t make up those shipments, but goods headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) do. That pretty well sums up the state of the US economy and this year’s outlook for holiday sales.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Apparel, Economy, Luxury, Retail Tagged: COH, JWN, M, RL, SKS, TIF, WMT

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CVX, CMG, COST, DE, XOM, DFS, LEAP, NWS.A, NEM, ORCL, RL, PLCM, PCG, RYAAY, SNE, WAG)

Administrator — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:23:05 +0000

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair; Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse; Raised target to $90 at Argus.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Maintained Neutral but cut estimates and target to $87 at Credit Suisse.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) maintained Neutral but target to $4 from $10 at Credit Suisse.
News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWS.A) Removed from the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Reiterated Outperform on Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Polycom Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCM) Raised to Buy at Argus.
PG&E Corporation (NYSE: PCG) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ: RYAAY) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) Cut to UNderperform at BofA/ML.
Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: CMG, COST, CVX, DE, DFS, LEAP, NEM, NWS-A, ORCL, PCG, PLCM, RL, RYAAY, SNE, WAG, XOM