24/7 Wall St. » RRC

Fitch Reviews Oil & Gas Operations and Reserves

Paul Ausick — Fri, 11 May 2012 17:34:44 +0000

Fitch Ratings is out with a statistical review of operational metrics at a number of oil & gas companies. The review notes a handful of emerging trends:

Finding, development, and acquisition (FD&A) costs are rising.
Reserves are growing.
Proved, developed reserves are shrinking.
Reserve additions are not well matched to production.
Liquids are in every E&P company’s sights.

To even out the changes a bit, Fitch computed a three-year average as well as a year-over-year average change.

FD&A costs for the entire group of companies fell by an average of -14% over three years, but the variation was large. The three-year average cost of a barrel in 2008 was $20.76, falling to $16.46 in 2011. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) posted an increase of 45% in FD&A costs over three years, while Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) lowered its costs by -41% and ConocoPhillips lowered its costs by -36%. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) showed a 1% increase in FD&A costs over the three years and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) paid 60% more per barrel in FD&A costs. FD&A costs for SandRidge Energy Corp. (NYSE: SD) rose 42%, while the largest drop in costs came at Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), at -65%.

Total proved reserves posted median gains of 4.8% year-over-year and 24% since 2008. Some of the largest reserves gains came from additions of natural gas, which drove up the reserve equivalent barrels count, but weighed on valuations due to the low prices for natural gas. Among the bigger companies, Exxon increased its reserves by 14.1% over the three-year span, while Chevron’s reserves grew by just 0.4% and Conoco’s fell by -18%.

Proved, developed reserves declined for all the companies in the sample by -3.5% over the three-year period. Fitch defined proved, developed reserves as “proved reserves that can be expected to be recovered through existing wells with existing equipment and operating methods, or through relatively minor expenditures.” Essentially that means that the companies are increasing production from existing wells and driving down the amount that’s left to get out of a producing well. As a percentage of total reserves, proved, developed reserves rose the most at Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), a total of 8% in the three-year period. Proved, developed reserves fell the most at Plains Exploration & Production Co. (NYSE: PXP), a total of -16.4%.

The mismatch between production and reserves replacement is described as “lumpy” by Fitch. The problem is mainly one of timing. A project with a long startup cycle, like Chevron’s liquefied natural gas project offshore of Australia, delays reserves booking well past the time the company spent billions of dollars to develop the project. This effect will become a bigger issue as new projects are developed in ultra-deepwater and other difficult environments by smaller companies.

Finally, the push to develop liquids production has been well-documented over the past couple of years. With natural gas prices near historic lows, liquids development is critically important to companies that once focussed almost exclusively on dry natural gas. The largest three-year average gain in liquids reserves was 40% at SandRidge, followed by 12% gains at Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) and Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX). Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) grew its liquids reserves by 11% over the three years.

Fitch notes that what it calls ‘efficiency’ — which is essentially the sum of all the factors it looked at in this operational review — “helps determine the relative credit quality and competitiveness of a firm when indexed against its peers … [B]eing a low-cost, efficient producer remains a key credit protection in the event of lower oil prices.”

The full report from FitchRatings is available here.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Oil & Gas, Research Tagged: CHK, COP, CVX, HES, MRO, NFX, OXY, PXD, PXP, RRC, SD, XOM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (AAPL, DELL, MOS, GILD, DNDN, BAS, CYH, LOPE, RRC, CETV, CHS, DLTR, GRMN, NG, RRD, TOL, HSTM, FIRE, THLD, NFX, CELL)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 21:07:33 +0000

US equities markets opened lower this morning following surprisingly weak manufacturing reports from Europe and China. Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of Greek debt to ‘CCC’ could not have been a surprise, but the move highlighted the doubts about whether or not Greece will be able to meet its new obligations. The new home sales report was weaker than expected (see our coverage here) and rising crude oil costs also kept markets on the downside. Indexes remained in negative territory for most of the day and are set to close with modest losses. Crude oil was higher today, with WTI crude up 0.02% at $106.27/barrel and Brent crude up 1.23% at $123.16/barrel. Gold settled up 0.7% at $1,771.30, a three-month high.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down almost 27 points to 12,938.75 (-0.21%), the NASDAQ fell more than 15 points (-0.52%) to 2,933.17, and the S&P 500 fell -0.33% or nearly 5 points to 1,357.66.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reiterated as ‘outperform’ and target price lifted to $600 at Credit Suisse; Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup and cut to ‘hold’ at Needham; The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) raised to ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity; Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) cut to ‘market perform’ at Bernstein; and Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) started as ‘neutral’ at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Basic Energy Services Inc. (NYSE: BAS) is up 0.15% at $19.90; Community Health Systems Inc. (NYSE: CYH) is up 14.3% at $23.61; Grand Canyon Education Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is down -0.95% at $17.67; Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC) is up 3.4% at $66.47; Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ: CETV) is down -18.5% at $6.93; Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) is up 16.9% at $14.97; Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is down -0.76% at $87.34; Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) is up 9.2% at $48.81 after posting a new 52-week high of $49.93 (more coverage here); Novagold Resources Inc. (AMEX: NG) is flat at $8.75; R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (NYSE: RRD) is down -1.8% at $13.00; and Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is down -4.8% at $22.56 (more coverage here).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

HealthStream Inc. (NASDAQ: HSTM) is up nearly 34% at $23.18 after posting a new all-time high of $23.19 earlier today. The Internet-based health learning company beat both EPS and revenue expectations in its most recent quarter.

Sourcefire Inc. (NASDAQ: FIRE) is up nearly 27% at $45.34 after posting a new all-time high of $45.50 earlier today. The Internet security provider handily beat earnings and revenue expectations last night.

Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: THLD) is up nearly 20% at $6.0. The pharmaceutical maker yesterday announced positive results for its pancreatic cancer treatment.

Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX) is down more than -12% at $37.06. The independent oil & gas company missed EPS and revenue estimates last night.

Brightpoint Inc. (NASDAQ: CELL) is down more than -11% at $8.89. The mobile-phone wholesaler has cut its outlook for 2012.

Stay tuned for Thursday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – New US claims for unemployment benefits
10:00 a.m. – Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
11:00 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
11:00 a.m. – Kansas City Fed manufacturing index
1:00 p.m. – 7-year note auction
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

Paul Ausick

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire Tagged: AAPL, BAS, CELL, CETV, CHS, CYH, DELL, DLTR, DNDN, FIRE, GILD, GRMN, HSTM, LOPE, MOS, NFX, NG, RRC, RRD, THLD, TOL

Oil & Gas Sector Review (XOM, CVX, COP, RRC, TSO, PXD, APC, CHK, APA, OXY)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 14:37:54 +0000

At the end of December, Brent crude spot prices were around $107/barrel and WTI spot prices were around $99/barrel. Since then, Brent has risen to right around $121/barrel today and WTI is up to around $104/barrel. In 2011, pump prices were driven by the price differential between Brent crude and WTI crude, and integrated oil companies that could take advantage of the differential made substantial margins on refining WTI crude and selling the products as if higher priced Brent were the refineries’ feedstock. The differential reached more than $25/barrel at one point, and fell to around $8/barrel early this year. As it widens again, consumers can expect to pay more at the pump and refiners can expect to see margins improve. It goes without saying the higher crude prices also benefit the exploration & production companies.

Natural gas has been stuck at around $2.50/thousand cubic feet for some time now, but have been ticking up recently as production is being slowed — primarily in an effort to pump up prices — while warm winter weather is cutting demand for heating and electricity demand is also falling.

We’ve looked at several oil & gas companies, including the three US-based supermajors and a number of independents with market caps above $10 billion: Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD); Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY). We’ve looked at the past year’s stock price performance, current year performance, and compared that with consensus target prices as reported by Thomson Reuters in an effort to find the stocks we think will be top performers in 2012.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a consensus price target of $95, up from $92 at the end of December, and a Friday closing price of $85.62, for a potential upside of about 11.3%. Crude oil price hikes provide substantial benefits to Exxon’s shares, and those price hikes could add $10-$20/barrel to the company’s revenues in the coming year. Exxon is also the largest US natural gas producer, which isn’t helping it much these days. Over the past 12 months, Exxon’s shares have gained just 1.7%

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a consensus price target of $124.50, up $2 since the end of December, and a current price of around $106.66, for a potential upside of about 16.8%. Of the three supermajors, Chevron’s potential gain is the largest, it’s share price gain of nearly 10% in the past year is the largest, and its dividend yield of 3.1% is second only to Conoco’s 3.6% among the three integrated giants. Chevron shares gained nearly 10% in 2011, though they are essentially flat since the beginning of this year.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has a consensus price target of $81.32, marginally lower than its December price, and a current price around $73.36, for a potential upside of about 10.8%. Conoco shares have lost nearly -3% of their value in the past year. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained about 0.75%.

Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC) has a consensus price target of $73.50, down $3 from its target in December, and a current price around $65.72, for a potential upside of about 12.4%. Year to day Range shares are up about 5.5%, but over the past 12 months the stock gained 34%. And even though it trades at about 56x earnings, Range is often mentioned as a takeover target from one of the supers or another mining company that wants to diversify into energy. Range holds about 800,000 leased acres in the Marcellus shale play, which is located close to the massive northeast US market.

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) has a consensus price target of $32, $4 higher than its December price, and a current price of $27.82, for a potential upside of about 14.3%. Tesoro’s share price gained about 7.75% in the past 12 months, but the price is up more than 19% since the beginning of the year. As the Brent/WTI differential widens, Tesoro’s profits will grow. The company has the only refinery in North Dakota, and the differential between Brent and Bakken oil is even more than double the WTI/Brent spread.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire Tagged: APA, APC, CHK, COP, CVX, OXY, PXD, RRC, TSO, XOM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (XOM, NKE, POT, TSLA, AMGN, RRC, AXE, ARMH, CE, LLY, HP, LLL, MHP, MAT, PFE, VLO, VRNG, RSH, PAY, REE, FFN)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:06:33 +0000

All three major indexes opened higher this morning, but the strength didn’t last as the Chicago PMI number failed to meet expectations and came in lower even than last month’s reading. The lower reading on consumer confidence also supported sellers this morning. Nothing of note was concluded on the Greek debt swap, so that had little effect on the market one way or the other. Oil major Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reported earnings in-line with expectations, that wasn’t good enough for investors today (our coverage here). Crude oil is mixed today, with WTI crude down -0.32% at $98.46/barrel and Brent crude higher by 0.31% at $111.09/barrel. Gold closed today at $1,738.10/ounce, having gained 11% this month (our view here).

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 21 points to 12,632.91 (-0.16%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 2 points (0.07%) to 2,813.84, and the S&P 500 fell -0.05% or less than 1 point to 1,312.40.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) started as ‘buy’ at Jefferies; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $80 at Argus; and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) raised to ‘hold’ from ‘sell’ with a target price of $59 at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Anixter Inc. (NYSE: AXE) is down -3.7% at $65.25; ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) is up 1.7% at $28.84; Celanese Corp. (NYSE: CE) is down -0.95% at $48.84; Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is up 1.35% at $39.78; Exxon Mobil is down -1.98% at $83.80; Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP) is up 2.2% at $61.64; L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LLL) is up 1.3% at $70.49; McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc. (NYSE: MHP) is down -0.5% at $46.09; Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) is up 5.1% at $31.04 after posting a new 52-week high today of $31.49; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down -0.8% at $21.42; and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is down -0.73% at $24.10.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Vringo Inc. (NASDAQ: VRNG) is up nearly 21% at $1.40. The social media software maker is apparently basking in the glow of the coming IPO of Facebook. See our coverage here.

RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) is down nearly -30% at $7.19 after setting a new 52-week low of $7.15 earlier today. The social media software maker is apparently basking in the glow of the coming IPO of Facebook. See our coverage here.

Verifone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is up more than 8% at $42.61. The payment systems maker is getting a boost from a plan by Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) to subsidize the installation of new card readers that use a microchip rather than a magnetic stripe to store customer information.

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX: REE) is up more than 17% at $7.22. The rare earth minerals miner is likely gaining after a ruling from the WTO that China’s restriction on rare earth minerals’ exports violates global trade rules.

FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) is up about 19% at $1.26. The adult social media company is likely also being bought up on the prospective Facebook IPO.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Automakers will be releasing sales figures for January throughout the day. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
7:30 a.m. – Challenger Job-cut data
8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report
10:00 a.m. – ISM manufacturing index
10:00 a.m. – Construction spending
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

Paul Ausick

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire Tagged: AMGN, ARMH, AXE, CE, FFN, HP, LLL, LLY, MAT, MHP, NKE, PAY, PFE, POT, REE, RRC, RSH, TSLA, VLO, VRNG, XOM

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMGN, AON, EQT, EXEL, IPI, ERIC, MDVN, NKE, NIHD, NYX, POT, RAX, RRC, SYMC, TSLA, UA, UNH)

Administrator — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:27:50 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Tuesday morning.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $80 at Argus.
AON Corporation (NYSE: AON) Raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) Raised to Hold from Sell with $50 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Maintained Buy but target now at $14 from $19 at Argus.
Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) Raised to Buy at Argus.
NII Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX) named Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.
Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) Raised to Hold from Sell with $59 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Reiterated Buy and $24.00 price target at Argus.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Raised to Buy at Needham.
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls Tagged: AMGN, AON, EQT, ERIC, EXEL, IPI, MDVN, NIHD, NKE, NYX, POT, RAX, RRC, SYMC, TSLA, UA, UNH

Top Oil & Gas Stock Picks for 2012 (XOM, CVX, COP, RRC, TSO, PXD, APC, CHK, APA, OXY)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 19:08:32 +0000

Crude oil prices have risen this year, although they have been tapering off in the past couple of months. Pump prices have been driven by the price differential between Brent crude and WTI crude, and integrated oil companies that could take advantage of the differential made substantial margins on refining WTI crude and selling the products as if higher priced Brent were the refineries’ feedstock. The differential reached more than $25/barrel earlier this year, but has fallen back to about $8-$9/barrel currently.

The fortunes of any oil & gas producer depends on the price of the commodity, and crude prices in the US have been rising, while natural gas prices have been no better than flat for the year. And while crude prices could rise to an average of more than $105/barrel in 2012, natural gas prices are not expected to rise much next year as abundant supplies are likely to increase even more.

We’ve looked at several oil & gas companies, including the three US-based supermajors and a number of independents with market caps above $10 billion: Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD); Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY). We’ve looked at the past year’s stock price performance and compared that with median target prices as reported by Thomson Reuters in an effort to find the stocks we think will be top performers in 2012.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a median price target of $92 and a current price of around $84.62, for a potential upside of 8.7%. That’s the lowest potential gain of any of the stocks in this survey, but combined with a share price gain of about 15% in the past 12 months and a dividend yield of 2.3%, Exxon’s upside is stronger than the simple calculation. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $67.03-$88.23, so the stock is trading within about 5% of its 52-week high. Crude oil price hikes provide substantial benefits to Exxon’s shares, and those price hikes could add $10-$20/barrel to the company’s revenues in the coming year.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a median price target of $122.50 and a current price of around $106.76, for a potential upside of 14.7%. Of the three supermajors, Chevron’s potential gain is the largest, it’s share price gain of nearly 16.5% in the past year is the largest, and its dividend yield of 3% is second in among the three giants. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $86.68-$110.01. Chevron has been the strongest bet among the three US supermajors this past year, and there’s little reason to expect that to change in 2012. A new 52-week high is close, and current events in the Middle East could push shares to a new high before the new year.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has a median price target of $82 and a current price around $72.24, for a potential upside of about 13.5%. Conoco trails the other two supermajors in share price gain for the past 12 months, posting a rise of just 6.35%. The company’s dividend yield is highest of the supers, at 3.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $58.65-$81.80. Conoco just sold assets in the North Sea for $330 million as it continues to try to bring its debt back under control. Of the three supermajors, this is the least likely to achieve its potential upside.

Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC) has a median price target of $77.50 and a current price around $61.55, for a potential upside of 26%. But Range’s share price has jumped more than 36% in the past year, but the company pays a paltry dividend yield of just 0.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $44.20-$77.24. With a market cap of right around $10 billion, Range is often mentioned as a takeover target from one of the supers or another mining company that wants to diversify into energy. Range holds about 800,000 leased acres in the Marcellus shale play, which is located close to the massive northeast US market.

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) has a median price target of $28 and a current price around $23, for a potential upside of about 22%. The refiner’s share price has gained more than 25% this year, but the company pays no dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $17.43-$29.61. Unlike the other major US refiner, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Tesoro has made no major acquisitions recently, apparently satisfied to play the hand it’s got. That’s probably smart, considering Valero shares got whacked in the past 12 months, down more than -9%. But as the Brent/WTI differential closes, no refining stock is a good bet for 2012, regardless of the potential upside calculation.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) has a median price target of $115 and a current price around $75.75, for a potential upside of 31.4%. The company’s shares gained a meager 2.2% in the past 12 months and the dividend yield is just 0.1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $58.63-$106.07. Like Range Resources, Pioneer carries a market cap of right around $10 billion. Most of the company’s assets are in Texas, and most are oil. Either as a takeover target or as a liquids producer, Pioneer is a solid play.

Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC) has a median target price of $100 and a current price of $75.75, for a potential upside of 32%. The share price gained more than 9% in the past year and the company pays a dividend yield of just 0.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $57.11-$85.50. Until fairly recently, Anadarko’s assets have been exclusively onshore in the US, but its acquisition of Kerr-McGee gave it a position in the Gulf of Mexico and the company has also acquired assets offshore of Africa. The potential upside here, combined with the company’s share price performance last year, make Anadarko a solid prospect for gains in 2012.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) has a median target price of $35.50 and a current price around $22.87, for a potential upside of 55%. Shares have lost more than -11% in the past 12 months and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $22-$35.95. Chesapeake’s shares are near the 52-week low today following a report from Reuters on how the company used shell companies to secure leases to drilling rights in Michigan and potential lawsuits springing from the practice. On the other side, at least one analyst thinks Chesapeake offers a “compelling risk/reward” opportunity. That awe-inspiring upside potential is probably out of reach though. Chesapeake holds a lot of debt, and any hiccup in the financial markets could raise havoc with the company.

Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) has a median price target of $134 and a current price of $88.63, for a potential upside of 51.2%. The company’s share price has fallen more than -25% in the past year and it pays a dividend yield of 0.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $73.04-$134.13. Several directors and company officers have been buying shares in the past month or so. Just under half of the company’s liquids production comes from its US assets, so the rising prices for WTI are positives for Apache. The large potential upside is probably not going to be closed, but the company’s shares could easily improve by 25% in 2012.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) has a median price target of $117.50 and a current price around $93.69, for a potential upside of 25.4%. The company’s share price has fallen more than -4% in the past 12 months and it pays a dividend yield of 2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $66.36-$117.89. Oxy’s assets include liquids-rich fields in southern California, where pricing for crude and liquids is higher than anywhere else in the country. Other assets in Texas and elsewhere onshore in the US will drive revenue and profit at Oxy this year, and the stock’s potential upside is not an impossible goal.

Overall, among these oil & gas stocks, Chevron would be the pick among the supermajors, and either Range Resources or Pioneer among the independents, primarily on the possibility of a takeover. Refiners face a tough 2012 and Conoco’s decision to split off its refining into a separate company won’t help matters.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Oil & Gas, Value Investing Tagged: APA, APC, CHK, COP, CVX, OXY, PXD, RRC, TSO, XOM

The Best Performing S&P Stocks of 2011 (SPY, OKE, AN, ROST, LTD, GR, TSO, EQT, ERTS, WFM, RL, TDC, RRC, MA, HUM, CMG, VFC, ISRG, BIIB, EP, COG)

Administrator — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 16:08:23 +0000

October may have been one of the best months of many of our lives in equities. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) rose by 10.9%. in October, but the year-to-date gain has been a mere 1.2% from the December 31, 2010 close to the close on October 31, 2011. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to see which stocks are up the most in percentage gains so far in 2011 in data provided by Capital IQ. This is a year-to-date move through the close of October 31, 2011. We have shown the S&P 500 Index gainers in order from lowest to highest. Another representation is how much implied upside there is to the Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target as well. Those which are trading above their consensus price target have been given a “caution” ahead of the pricing data.

ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) 37.1% year-to-date; at $76.05 the consensus price target is $76.60.

AutoNation Inc. (NYSE: AN) 38.1% year-to-date; caution: at $38.94 the consensus price target is $31.28.

Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) 38.7% year-to-date; caution: at $87.73 the consensus price target is $85.00.

Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD) 39.0% year-to-date; at $42.71 the consensus price target is $44.71.

Goodrich Corporation (NYSE: GR) 39.2% year-to-date; This is being acquired, so no color.

Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO) 39.9% year-to-date; at $25.94 the consensus price target is $20.31.

EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) 41.6% year-to-date; at $63.50 the consensus price target is $72.28.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) 42.6% year-to-date; at $23.35 the consensus price target is $25.63. This was previously listed as our top pick for the best video game stock for 2011.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) 42.6% year-to-date; at $72.12 the consensus price target is $74.47.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) 43.2% year-to-date; caution: at $158.79 the consensus price target is $150.00.

Teradata Corporation (NYSE: TDC) 44.9% year-to-date; at $59.66 the consensus price target is $60.56.

Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) 53.0% year-to-date; at $68.84 the consensus price target is $76.50.

Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) 54.9% year-to-date; at $347.24 the consensus price target is $374.82. It seems odd to see one financial stock here.

Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) 55.1% year-to-date; at $84.89 the consensus price target is $88.71. Health insurance has not been as bad of a business as the administration was looking for.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) 58.1% year-to-date; caution: at $336.12 the consensus price target is $328.45. The growth continues, but it is at or close to being fully valued.

V.F. Corporation (NYSE: VFC) 60.4% year-to-date; at $138.22 the consensus price target is $144.33.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) 68.3% year-to-date; caution: at $433.86 the consensus price target is $419.27. DaVinci sales remain robust as more surgeons are looking for robotic surgery capabilities.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 73.5% year-to-date; caution: at $116.36 the consensus priced target is $115.22. Here is how this compared to the rest of its peers before earnings season.

El Paso Corp. (NYSE: EP) 81.8% year-to-date; being acquired so no color.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: COG) 105.3% year-to-date; ; at $77.72 the consensus price target is $91.32.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: HI/LOW, Index, Trading Alert Tagged: AN, BIIB, CMG, COG, EP, EQT, ERTS, GR, HUM, ISRG, LTD, MA, OKE, RL, ROST, RRC, SPY, TDC, TSO, VFC, WFM

24/7 Closing Bell (F, NFLX, ITRI, V, RRC, PG, CL, XOM, OXY, ABX, JCI, BMY, MO, QUIK, KELYB, LDK, CENX, MDR, AVP)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 20:11:47 +0000

The DJIA jumped above 12,000 in the opening minutes of trading this morning and had topped 12,200 by mid-afternoon. European Union leaders have agreed on a deal that would make up to $1.4 trillion as a bailout fund for troubled European banks, offer a 50% haircut to Greek debt holders, and recapitalize the continent’s banks. Apparent euphoria over the deal in Europe caused investors to miss the weak number on pending home sales. The euro rose to more than $1.42, its highest level in nearly two months, and oil prices were about $3/barrel higher this morning and had gained nearly another dollar by mid-afternoon. The day closed with a few uncertainties still remaining on the agreement announced earlier in Europe.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly more than 340 points to 12,209.23 (2.87%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 88 points (3.32%) to 2,738.63, and the S&P 500 rose 3.43% or more than 42 points to 1,284.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) maintained at ‘neutral’ with price target cut from $16 to $14 at Credit Suisse; Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup (ahem!); Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) started at ‘outperform’ with a $60 price target at Credit Suisse and maintained at ‘buy’ with a $50 target at Canaccord Genuity; Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) cut to ‘market perform’ at FBR; and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) reiterated at ‘sell’ by Canaccord Genuity.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) up about 0.5%, at $65.25; Colgate Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) up about 1%, at $91.49; Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) up 0.84%, at $81.75; Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) up nearly 11%, at $96.59; Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) up nearly 2.5%, at $48.98; Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) up 2.2%, at $33.32; Bristol Meyers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) up 1.8%, at $33.10; and Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) up 1.5%, at $27.69.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

QuickLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QUIK) is up nearly 25%, at $2.87. The company announced an agreement under which mobile phone maker Kyocera will use QuickLogic chips in new products for the Japanese market.

Kelly Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: KELYB) is up nearly 28%, at $16.75. The company is set to announce earnings on November 9th, and is glimmering in the glow of a solid earnings report today from Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW).

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) is up more than 21%, at $4.00. Germany has announced another cut to its solar power feed-in tariff at the first of the year, and that could unleash a horde of new projects to take advantage of the current higher tariff rate.

Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX) is up more than 19%, at $11.74. The company reported an EPS loss yesterday, even though sales were up 24%. Investors must like the revenue report more than they hate the EPS loss.

McDermott International Inc. (NYSE: MDR) is down nearly -26%, at $10.85. The engineering and construction company lowered its third-quarter profit and revenue guidance. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.29 and McDermott is now saying EPS will be just $0.03-$0.05.

Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) is down about -18%, at $18.87. The company missed its earnings expectations, but the worse news is that the SEC have begun a formal investigation into bribery charges against the company for actions it took in foreign markets.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Consumer spending
8:30 a.m. – Employment cost index
9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

Paul Ausick

Filed under: General, Market Close Tagged: ABX, AVP, BMY, CENX, CL, F, ITRI, JCI, KELYB, LDK, MDR, MO, NFLX, OXY, PG, QUIK, RRC, V, XOM

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ALXN, BAC, F, HSP, ITRI, KND, NFLX, PX, RRC, THI, URBN, V)

Administrator — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 12:29:23 +0000

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) Maintained Neutral and cut target to $14 from $16 at Credit Suisse.
Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML, but named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) Started as Outperform with $60 target at Credit Suisse; maintained Buy and $50 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Kindred Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: KND) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup (boy, how timely).
Praxair Inc. (NYSE: PX) Cut to Underperform from Buy at BofA/ML.
Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) Reiterated Sell at Canaccord Genuity.
Tim Hortons, Inc (NYSE: THI) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ALXN, BAC, F, HSP, ITRI, KND, NFLX, PX, RRC, THI, URBN, V

Marcellus Shale Gas Estimate Falls (CHK, RRC, COG, GDP)

Administrator — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 20:45:13 +0000

The US Geological Survey has released a new estimate of the amount of undiscovered natural gas in the Marcellus shale deposit. The original USGS estimate, made in 2002, projected a total of 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus. The agency raised its estimate by a factor of more than 40, but the new figures fall short of the current estimate.

Following the 2002 USGS estimate,the US Department of Energy projected that the total amount of gas in the Marcellus shale plat at 410 trillion cubic feet. The USGS now estimates about 84 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus shale formation that runs from Tennessee to New York. The low-to-high estimate from the USGS for the Marcellus shale is 43 to 144.1 trillion cubic feet. Anyway you look at it, these are still huge numbers.

Among the major natural gas firms working in the region are Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC), Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: COG), and Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: GDP).

Range Resources, Cabot, and Goodrich received subpoenas last week from the Attorney General of New York seeking details on how the companies value their natural gas reserves. The issue revolves around how much gas the companies estimate that they will produce over the life of a well.

There’s little argument over the profile of a hydraulically-fractured well’s production. These wells reach peak production very quickly, usually within a year, and then rapidly decline. Conventional gas wells take longer to reach peak production and decline much more slowly.

The impact of the new USGS estimate could affect the way these companies, and others, calculate their reserves. Following a change to SEC rules on how reserves are estimate, natural gas producers are now allowed to calculate reserves based on drilling plans, not on actual well data from nearby wells. Depending on how much gas is estimated to be present in the drilling area, a company’s reserve estimate — and valuation — could rise or fall dramatically.

If a company used the 410 trillion cubic feet estimate in any of its calculations, those estimates will very likely have to be revised downward. And because oil & gas company valuations depend heavily on reserves, there could be some nasty surprises ahead for shareholders.

Shares of Chesapeake are up about 0.8% in the late afternoon today, at $29.89, in a 52-week range of $19.68-$35.95. Range Resources’ shares are up about 0.6%, at $59.57, in a 52-week range of $32.25-$67.33. Cabot’s shares are off about -0.8%, at $69.64, in a 52-week range of $26.62-$78.94. Goodrich shares are up more than 1%, at $15.10, in a 52-week range of $10.54-$23.80.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Commodities, Oil & Gas Tagged: CHK, COG, GDP, RRC