ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) Started as Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE: GCI) Started as Equalweight at Barclays.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NASDAQ: DECK) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; Maintained Buy with $105 target at Canaccord Genuity.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
Forest Oil Corporation (NYSE: FST) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) Reiterated Conviction Buy List and raised estimates by Goldman Sachs.
Marriott International, Inc. (NYSE: MAR) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) Raised to Buy with $30 target at Argus.
PolyOne Corporation (NYSE: POL) named as Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ: RRGB) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Sunoco, Inc. (NYSE: SUN) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Maintained Neutral but raised target to $145 on Credit Suisse; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity; Reiterated Buy and raised target to $170 at Canaccord Genuity.
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo; Cut to Negative at Susquehanna.

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JON C. OGG

AEGON (NYSE: AEG) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
AFLAC Inc. (NYSE: AFL) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
The Andersons, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.
Blue Coat Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BCSI) Reiterated Underperform and cut target to $20 at BofA/ML.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Top Pick at FBR Capital Markets.
Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSC) Reiterated Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Maintained Underperform with $29 target at Credit Suisse.
Entergy Corporation (NYSE: ETR) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Itron, Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) Cut to Underperform at Baird.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ: RRGB) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
UIL Holdings Corp. (NYSE: UIL) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.

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JON C. OGG

The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Apartment Investment & Management Co. (NYSE: AIV) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) Started as Outperform at KBW.
Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) reiterated Buy and raised target to $50 at Canaccord Genuity.
BRF - Brasil Foods S.A. (NYSE: BRFS) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
CAI International Inc. (NYSE: CAP) Maintained Strong Buy as Value at Zacks.
CRA International (NASDAQ: CRAI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (NYSE: PCS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) Started as Outperform at Macquarie.
Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM) Raised to Strong Buy at S&P Equity Research (late-Thursday).
Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Regis Corporation (NYSE: RGS) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Maintained Buy with $170 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $24 at Argus.
Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) Raised to Buy with $4.75 at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) is trading higher by over 4.6% at $6.29 after reporting that earnings were down by almost half but still above estimates.  We have seen more than 3.5 million shares trade in the after-hours alone.

Duckwall-Alco Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: DUCK) is down 5.6% at $12.50 on more than 500,000 shares since the 4PM Close.  Here is the thing to consider: volume is only about 7,000 shares a day.  This is very likely a clean-up block trade

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) is up 2.1% at $51.50 on more than 165,000 after-hours shares after profit fell about 36% after selling its real estate solutions business in 2010.

Newpark Resources Inc. (NYSE: NR) is up more than 10% at $7.16 on more than 35,000 shares after the closing bell after beating earnings expectations.

Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE: JWN) is down about 2.1% at $45.50 in after-hours trading on more than 170,000 shares despite a 35% rise in earnings.  Retail stocks have risen sharply, so it is a sell-the-news event.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) is surging more than 7.8% in the after-hours on more than 570,000 after-hours shares after profit rose on higher gross margins and strong demand… Wait a minute, Higher Margins in SOLAR?  It also lifted its full-year forecast.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) is up 7% at $22.60 after its Q4 earnings rose over 30%. Volume is light at 19,000 after the close.

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JON C. OGG

Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) is lower after weak earnings.  Shares were down 9% last night and the stock is down 10.2% at $5.27 on over 1.7 million shares this morning. Keep in mind that it trades about 24 million shares per day.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is trading lower after earnings failed to impress due,  The PC makers had some less-positive comments than other PC and gadget makers in this earnings season, and it gave the caveat that enterprise spending slows here seasonally on the calendar when other firms are not cautious on that segment.  Shares closed at $14.32, and shares are down 3.25% at $13.80 on only about 360,000 shares.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) was trading higher after earnings showed it moved from a loss to a $206 million profit above estimates.  Shares closed at $17.84 and the stock is trading up at $18.21 on over 20,000 shares.

National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) is trying to show some gains despite weak markets in Europe before the German houses of parliament voted to back the E.U. rescue package. Shares are up 2% at $2.55 on 55,000 shares.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) is currently the worst stock on the NASDAQ this morning despite it having a bad Thursday.  Stern Agee cut it to Neutral after its earnings guidance.  Shares are down over 14% at $20.20 on about 10,000 shares.

Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is down and getting to find out how fun it is when guidance is disappointing along with a very high P/E ratio.  Shares are trading 7.7% at $72.99 on over 30,000 shares.

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JON C. OGG

Sponsor: 5 best investments for 2010 – The next nine months represent a bold new era for investors.

Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) is trading more like Broke-Cade at the Arcade after earnings.  While we expected weak earnings, this is still one of our few stocks which can double over the next couple of years.  Shares closed down 3% at $5.87 today, and then the stock is down almost 9% at $5.35 on over 2.5 million shares since the closing bell. Keep in mind this is averaging about 24 million shares a day now.

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLDX) had a bad day with a 14% drop to $7.68, but in the after-hours session the stock is down another 19% at $6.20 on another 68,000 shares since the closing bell.  Someone yelled out “Sell-Dex!” it seems.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is off the earlier lows after earnings failed to impress.  We have seen 3,270,435 shares trade since the close and shares are down 3.8% at $13.77 after the stock closed lower at $14.32 today.

Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: FL) is trading higher with a 74% profit gain and after beating earnings expectations.  Shares were up over 6% in the after-hours session but shares are now up 4.17% at $14.00.

Hot Topic, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOTT) closed down  almost 10% in regular trading after posting a loss.  But shares have slid further by 9.8% at $5.30 on 63,000 shares since the closing bell.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is trading higher after earnings showed it moved from a loss to a $206 million profit above estimates.

Nordson Corporation (NASDAQ: NDSN) beat earnings as sales rose 33% and the stock is up 5% at $66.00 on only 7600 shares.

Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is down and it may finally have to start worrying about that incredibly high P/E ratio.  Shares closed down 3% at $79.03 and shares are down another 6.2% at $74.10 in the after-hours session.  While sales rose 24%, its net income after items was down and its guidance was short of some expectations.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) beat first quarter results, but its lower guidance left holders feeling like they own stock in a buger joint called Dead Robin.   Shares closed down 6.3% at $23.56 in normal trading, and Dead Robin is down another 11.3% in the after-hours session at $20.90 on 33,000 shares since the closing bell.

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JON C. OGG

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) is the biggest problem child of the casual dining chain stocks today.  The company tanked last night when it said that its Q1 profit rose 24% to $0.58 EPS on revenue of $152.3 million; Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.57 EPS and revenue of $154.4 million. The problem is same-store sales that puts its forecast of 20% earnings growth at risk.  The quarter’s same-store sales rose only 0.1% and only 0.7% at franchised restaurants.  The problem is that both classes saw drops of roughly 3.7% at company-owned stores and fell 2.4% at franchise stores so far in April.  If you look at the prior growth of 20%, the implied earnings comes to about $2.04 EPS for the fiscal-year.  Thomson Reuters is looking for $2.06 EPS.  Its shares are down 18.4% at $41.61.

Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) is the other problem child, just to a lesser extent.
Earnings were $0.82 EPS, matching estimates. Revenues gained by 14% to $364.2 million and same-store sales rose 10% for company sites and 9.2% at franchise stores.  While Panera reiterated guidance, the slowing of growth was too much for a growth stock to handle.  The company sees next quarter of $0.81 to $0.83 EPS on 8.5% to 9.5% in same-store sales; and it reiterated a 2010 expected range of $3.40 to $3.44 EPS with a 6.5% to 7.5% gain in same-store sales.  The quarterly estimate from Thomson Reuters is $0.84 EPS next quarter and the annual estimate is $3.52 EPS.  Panera shares are down 6% at $81.00.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) are different in that they are ‘bar-b-q’ and burger chains, but both are growth chains and are marketing to the same customers.  Texas Roadhouse is down 7.8% at $14.32 and Red Robin is down 6% at $24.13.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) and PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB) may be a tad higher up the casual dining food chain with slightly higher average ticket items, but they are getting hit today as well.  Cheesecake is down 6% at $27.77 and PF Chang’s is down 5.8% at $43.73.

Two other casual dining behemoths are down with the sector, although as they are mature they are down less than the higher-beta growth chains: Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) and Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT).

Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI)  has Red Lobster, Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, The Capital Grille, Bahama Breeze, and Seasons 52.  Because it has more than 1,700 locations, its stock is down “only” 2.1% at $46.01.  Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) is down worse than Darden, but is off “only” 3.8% at $18.88.  It has almost 1,700 chains among its Chili’s Grill & Bar, On The Border Mexican Grill & Cantina, and Maggiano’s Little Italy chains.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is down as collateral damage and is meant for reference only.  It is after a lower per-person ticket and is the old McMex play.  This stock also rose almost $20.00 after earnings and guidance were better than expected just last week.  Its stock is down 2.3% mid-day at $135.83.

There are many issues that explain this.  Some will say that it is a more competitive environment.  Some already have.  But at the end of the day, this is a huge disappointment when you consider that we are supposed to be in the midst of a recovery and when people are finally getting hired back to actual paying jobs.  This is a notion that Americans are still hanging on to value and thriftiness, and for longer than what many analysts and economists (and company executives) have been thinking.

JON C. OGG

Crocs (CROX) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
France Telecom (FTE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Marsh & McLennan (MMC) Raised to Buy at UBS.
MetroPCS (PCS) Raised to Hold at Auriga.
Aqua America (WTR) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
Leap Wireless (LEAP) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel; Cut to Hold at Soleil.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Telecom Italia (TI) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Thomson Reuters (TRI) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.

JON C. OGG

Imagine if (or when) you are forced to see the calorie, salt, and fat counts for many of your favorite foods such as Buffalo Wings at Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD). Or what about some of those oversized plates big enough for two or three meals at The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE)?  And what if you tally up the full calories and sodium in Chinese food at PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB)?  Or a Monster Burger at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB).  Or what about Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) chains like Chili’s for the Texas Cheese Fries?

We do not mean to pick on any single chain by naming menu items or chains, because this  could affect all big chain owners to the likes of Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE:WEN), Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH), Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC), California Pizza Kitchen Inc., (NASDAQ: CPKI), and many more.  The news of this had a significant negative impact on most of these stocks today when you consider we had an up market.

The restaurants would also be required to immediately furnish upon request additional nutritional data such as total calories, calories from fat, amounts of fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, sodium, total carbohydrates, complex carbohydrates, sugars, dietary fiber and protein.   A trick will be in making sure that the “serving size” matches up with the plate size actually served to you.

The “compromise” is said by the senators to combine key elements of the Menu Education and Labeling (MEAL) Act, sponsored by Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) and the Labeling Education and Nutrition (LEAN) Act, sponsored by Senators Tom Carper (D-DE) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).  The agreement also requires the disclosure of calories per food items on vending machines owned by individuals operating 20 or more vending machines.

Frankly, all of this information should be more available in restaurants if patrons request it.  Many chains disclose this along with food allergen alerts, but the obligation is on the patron.  Putting this directly on a menu or on a menu board may either encourage restaurants to work around the rules or may create other angles.  For restaurants to get around this, they can merely say “per serving” and just say how many servings are there.

Many of the fast food chains already make this data available on their websites and some have these pamphlets available upon request in their stores:

• McDonald’s gives its full nutritional list.
• Yum! Brands for Pizza Hut shows calories and other nutritional data even for pizza.
• P.F. Chang’s shows its nutritional data online for its entire menu.  Hint: not all plates are just one full serving; some orders are four servings or more.
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers allows you to customize your order to calculate nutritional values.
• Brinker’s chain Chili’s shows its nutritional information as well on its Menu site if you download the PDF.  Hint: The Texas Cheese Fries are 1,920 calories with 3,570 mg of sodium.
• Sonic also lists its nutritional count for its full menu.

Again, our intent here is to just show how some restaurant chains already make this available.  It is out there.  Some restaurants are easy to find the data and others are not.   The long and short of the matter of this is that it could help out some in the war on obesity and other preventative health measures.  Whether it helps out entirely, let’s just say old habits are hard to break.  And if iceberg salad with lemon juice was appealing to the masses, then they wouldn’t need to make pants above a 34-inch waist.

Here was how bad this was on some chain stock tickers: CPKI -6.88%, PFCB -6.3%, EAT -6.1%, BWLD -5.9%, CAKE -4.6%, SONC -4.3%, TXRH -4.2%, RRGB -3.9%, YUM -1.6%, and MCD -1.2%.

Jon C. Ogg

• Apollo Investment (AINV) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Baker Hughes (BHI) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Canadian National Railway (CNI) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• Elizabeth Arden, Inc. (RDEN) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.
• Kansas City Southern (KSU) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Palm (PALM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Smith International (SII) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Teradyne (TER) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.

Jon C. Ogg
January 20, 2009