Posts for Ticker ‘RYL’

Looking for Next Homebuilder Merger? (DHI, TOL, NVR, MDC, LEN, KBH, RYL, MTH, HOV, MHO, SPF, XHB, ITB, PKB)

We won’t bother telling you about the homebuilder merger this morning, because we already covered it once.  But in a down and out sector, you will see that traders are looking to see if there will be other mergers in the battered group.  As you will also see, the lower market cap stocks are the ones where traders are guessing as to which will be the next take-out candidate.  Our cut off was a $100 million market cap as of yesterday and every stock in the sector that we track in the U.S. is higher.

DR Horton Inc. (DHI)….. $3.5B; +5.8% at $10.78
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). $3.1B; +4.5% at $18.86
NVR Inc. (NVR)……….. $2.6B; +4% at $6.86
MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC).. $1.5B; +4.5% at $30.95
Lennar Corp. (LEN)……. $1.2B; +11% at $7.98
KB Home (KBH)………… $1.1B; +6% at $14.30
Ryland Group Inc. (RYL).. $728.8M; +6% at $16.80
Meritage Homes Corp(MTH). $401.3M; +7.3% at $12.99
Hovnanian (HOV)………. $125.0M; +11% at $1.72
M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)…. $121.7M; +2.2% at $8.72
Standard Pacific (SPF)… $100.6M; +11% at $1.00

Oddly enough, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) ETF is only up almost 4% at $11.37.  The other ETF, the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (NYSE: ITB) is up 3.5% at $9.25.  This is a slightly different ETF, but the PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construct (NYSE: PKB) is up 1.3% at $9.65 on very thin volume.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: April 8, 2009 – 8:46 am in ETF, Housing, Mergers and Buy Outs, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ryland & Shrinking Homebuilder Credit (RYL)

Burning_houseYou probably already figured that the increase in existing home sales was due to foreclosure, pre-foreclosure, and other distressed sales.  Today, Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) had an interesting SEC Filing.  While many companies are trying to get access to credit, this homebuilder amended its existing revolving credit facility.  Just keep in mind that this was likely at the request of JPMorgan Chase and its other lenders.

Read More »

Posted on: January 27, 2009 – 1:43 pm in Housing, , ,

52-Week Low Club (AEG, AMD, BKD, CHRT, CMG, CVI, GEHL, JOBS, LRCX, LSCC, MNI, MU, MSA, NOOF, RYL, THQI, VMED, WSM)

Today was another ugly day on Wall Street as sellers are winning over the conviction that the rumors that the bear was dead might be grossly exaggerated.  You’ll probably recognize many chip stocks on here today.  While financials led the selling today, most financial stocks were not on 52-week lows.  Here are today’s stocks that hit new 52-week lows:

  • Aegon (NYSE: AEG)
  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)
  • Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE: BKD)
  • Chartered Semiconductor (NASDAQ: CHRT)
  • Chipotle Mexicann Grill (NYSE: CMG)
  • CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI)
  • Gehl Company (NASDAQ: GEHL)
  • 51Job inc.. (NASDAQ: JOBS)
  • Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX)
  • Lattice Semiconductor (NASDAQ: LSCC)
  • McClatchy (NYSE: MNI)
  • Micron Tech (NYSE: MU)
  • Mine Safety Appliances (NYSE: MSA)
  • New Frontier (NASDAQ: NOOF)
  • Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL)
  • THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)
  • Virgin Media Inc. (NASDAQ: VMED)
  • William Sonoma (NYSE: WSM)

Jon C. Ogg
July 28, 2008

Posted on: July 28, 2008 – 2:54 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ADM, ASMI, CN, CHU, FIG, BEN, MSO, NT, RYL, TER, VSE)

These are ten of the analyst calls we are focusing on this Thursday morning:

  • Archer-Daniels (NYSE: ADM) cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • ASM Intl NV (NASDAQ: ASMI) started as Underperform at Jefferies.
  • China Netcom (NYSE: CN) and China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.    
  • Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG) cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) raised to Outperform at KBW.
  • Martha Stewart (NYSE: MSO) cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Nortel (NYSE: NT) raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Teradyne (NYSE: TER) started as Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) cut to Sell at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
June 12, 2008

Posted on: June 12, 2008 – 7:14 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

Lehman Starts Homebuilders (DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, PHM, RYL, TOL)

Lehman Brothers has initiated coverage of some key homebuilders this morning:

  • DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) started as Overweight.
  • Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) started as Underweight.
  • KB Home (NYSE: KBH) started as Equal-Weight.
  • Lennar (NYSE: LEN) started as Equal-Weight.
  • Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) started as Equal-Weight.
  • Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL) started as Overweight.
  • Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) started as Overweight.

Just yesterday we noted how the sector has seen a major recovery and were pondering if the sector had bottomed.

Jon C. Ogg
February 27, 2008

Posted on: February 27, 2008 – 8:08 am in Analyst Calls, Housing, , , , , , ,

Which Homebuilder Stock Goes To Zero First? (XHB, DHI, TOL, LEN, PHM, CTX, NVR, KBH, MDC, RYL, HOV, BZH)

Everyone keeps predicting one or more of the large US Homebuilders is going to implode because of their overbuilding and inability to sell new units at their old highly profitable margins.  Most of these have large land bank losses from property options being written off.  inventories are through the roof, no pun intended.  Well, you’ve seen and heard the news.

What we wanted to do was show a list of the old major homebuilders to show how the stocks have sold off over the last year and even how low the market caps have become in the sector.  Dubai has signaled it wants to buy into a homebuilder, and that was before Abu Dhabi injected $7.5 Billion into Citigroup.

Measuring stock price alone is no way to judge, but looking at the sell-offs from the recent highs may be a judge.  Some are down more than 80% from their 52-week highs.

Tick    PRICE        CHANGE            $52-WEEK      MKT-CAP
DHI    $10.23    (-$0.35; -3.31%)  $10.46-31.13     $3.22B   
TOL    $18.12    (-$0.01; -0.06%)  $18.12-35.64     $2.84B   
LEN    $14.08    (-$0.42; -2.90%)  $14.50-56.54     $2.26B   
PHM    $8.92    (-$0.24; -2.62%)   $9.00-35.56        $2.28B   
CTX    $17.93    (-$0.45; -2.45%)  $18.34-58.42      $2.18B   
NVR    $442.59 (+$8.59; +1.98%) $398.96-851.96  $2.27B   
KBH    $18.65    (-$1.00; -5.09%)  $19.61-56.08      $1.92B   
MDC    $32.15   (-$0.40; -1.23%)   $32.49-60.34      $1.47B   
RYL    $19.76    (-$0.26; -1.30%)   $19.97-60.13      $831.58M   
HOV    $6.95      (+0.02; +0.29%)    $6.92-38.66        $432.32M   
BZH    $7.12      (+0.15; -2.06%)      $7.06-48.60        $279.16M

We aren’t going to make a determination yet as to which ones will live and which ones will bite the dust.  Unfortunately you can’t even trust the balance sheets right now because there is simply no way to calculate the off-book transactions, the value writedowns that each will fess up to, and how many of these homes that were juiced-up and sold above market with rebates and incentives that some of the builders will ultimately have to take back at some point in the future.

At least one or some will likely fail.  History would dictate that some cannot survive the malaise if it continues at this rate.  Ultimately, some will thrive after this dust storm settles.  But "ultimately" can be a long ways off.

If you noticed the news this morning you saw a 4.5% decrease in housing prices in Q3 2007 over Q3 2006, and that was after a 2.2% decrease in Q2.  There is no price rebound expected in 2008, and foreclosures are expected to rise as well.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (AMEX:XHB) shares are down 0.8% at $17.05 late in the day.

DR Horton (DHI), Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN),Pulte (PHM), Centex (CTX), NVR Inc. (NVR), MDC Holdings (MDC), Ryland (RYL), Hovnanian (HOV), Beazer (BZH)……

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2008

24/7 Wall St. has an open email distribution list with other similar briefs and stories where we summarize and preview data for those interested.  It is usually sent out two to three times per week.

Posted on: November 27, 2007 – 3:45 pm in Housing, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Housing Stocks:The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

We had two pieces of news today in the housing sector, and neither one of which were given a cheer. 

  • KB Home (KBH) issued earnings today and the losses were wide, but they are actually not below their recent 52-week lows even with shares down 0.5% at $24.00 today.
  • Today’s new home sales for August fell another 8.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 795,000 annually.  The Commerce Department said this is the lowest level since 2000.

But the list of 52-WEEK LOWS continues to be littered with housing related stocks.  So much for the efficient market theory being able to price events and trends in….This is becoming habitual if you key in on our list of new lows each day. 

Here are the stocks that hit 52-week lows today, and a "***" is meant to denote stocks that hit 52-week lows but wouldn’t have a new 52-week low close if it closed there at the time:

  • (BLG) Building Materials $10.90; $10.92 prior low (material side, not builder)
  • (DHI) D R Horton $12.80, at low of $12.80
  • (LEN) Lennar $21.85, below $22.20
  • ***(PHHM) Palm Harbor Homes $12.46, above $12.14 prior
  • (PHM) Pulte Homes $13.25, under $13.40 prior
  • (RYL) Ryland $20.78, under $20.91 prior
  • (SPF) Standard Pacific $5.69, under $5.90 prior

The beatings will continue until lender and borrower morale improves!

Jon C. Ogg
September 27, 2007

Posted on: September 27, 2007 – 11:44 am in Housing, , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (September 25, 2007)

ACLI cut to Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald.
ARRS cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
BKR cut to Neutral at Oppenheimer.
BRCM cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
BZH started as Sell at UBS.
CAKE started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
CCBL cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
CKR started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
CSG cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns.
CTX started as Buy at UBS.
DF cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
DHI started as Sell at UBS.
EMC started as Buy at B of A.
EMC started as Buy at Jefferies.
FLWS raised to Outperform at CIBC.
GOL raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
GYI started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
HOV started as Neutral at UBS.
JBX started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
K cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
KBH started as Buy at UBS.
LEN started as Sell at UBS.
MCD started as neutral at Credit Suisse.
MMC cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MTH started as Neutral at UBS.
NILE started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
NTAP started as Neutral at Bank of America.
NVDA started as Neutral at UBS.
PACR cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
PFCB started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
PHM started as Sell at UBS.
RHT started as Sector Perform at RBC.
RT started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
RYL started as Neutral at UBS.
SNIC raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
SPF started as Sell at UBS.
TAM raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
TXRH started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
WON raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
September 25, 2007

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 7:08 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

UBS Starts Coverage of Homebuilders (BZH, CTX, DHI, HOV, KBH, MTH, PHM, RYL, SPF, LEN, LOW)

Lennar posted earnings and as expected these were just ugly.  The loss was $3.25 per share after charges, although this includes charges of $3.33 per share.  Revenues were $2.34 Billion.   Lennar’s home sale revenue fell 44% to $2.2 billion. Cancellation rate was 32%; New orders fell 48% to 5,804 homes.  And if this wasn’t foreseeable, the company will be having more job cuts in the coming quarter.  Lennar shares are indicated down $1.30 to 41.70 at what will be another set of 52-week lows.

UBS has initiated coverage of homebuilders:

  • Beazer (BZH) started as Sell;
  • Centex (CTX) started as Buy;
  • D.R.Horton (DHI) started as Sell;
  • Hovnanian (HOV) started as Neutral;
  • KB Home (KBH) started as Buy;
  • Lennar started as Sell;
  • Meritage (MTH) started as Neutral;
  • Pulte (PHM) started as Sell;
  • Ryland (RYL) started as Neutral;
  • Standard Pacific (SPF) started as Sell.

Lowe’s (LOW) earnings warning last night is also pulling the related and tertiary sector down.

Jon C. Ogg
September 25, 2007

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 6:59 am in Housing, , , , , , , , , , ,

Many Housing Stocks Still Hitting Lows (CTX, DHI, KBH, LEN, RYL, MHO, BECN, BLDR, MAS, XHB)

Stock Tickers: CTX, DHI, KBH, LEN, RYL, MHO, BECN, BLDR, MAS, XHB

After a mid-day review of 52-week lows, there was one obvious group that makes this list now more frequently than it does not: HOMEBUILDERS.  Related companies are also on the list of usual suspects as well.

**denotes hit intraday 52-week lows but may be above now

Centex (CTX)              $25.88; prior low $26.03
DR Horton (DHI)        $13.58; prior low $13.61
KB Home (KBH)        $26.43; prior low $26.55
**Lennar (LEN)          $25.61; 25.50 prior low (today low $25.34)
**Ryland (RYL)           $25.19; prior low 24.92 (today low $24.90)
**M I Homes (MHO)   $14.82; prior low 414.81 (today low $14.65)   

Those with related activities that saw intra-day lows under the prior 52-week low ar as follows: Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN), Builders Firstsource (BLDR), and Masco (MAS).

About the only good news is that the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (AMEX:XHB) shares are actually UP on the day now with the broader markets.  XHB shares are up 0.8% at $22.81, and its 52-week range is $22.59 to $40.03.  This ETF is being led by some of the large suppliers that serve the industry rather than by the homebuilder components themselves.  Toll Brothers (TOL) and Pulte Homes (PHM) are actually up on the day.

Jon C. Ogg
September 11, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: September 11, 2007 – 11:45 am in Housing, , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

The Ryland Group (RYL) In home building and mortgage businesses. Enough said. Down to $26.61 from 52-week high of $60.13.

Dillard Department Stores (DDS) Same store sales down last month. Drops to $21.06 from 52-week high of $40.56.

Nortel Networks (NT) Enterprise network supply business does not seem very good. Ask Alcatel-Lucent (ALU). NT down to $17.02 from 52-week high of $31.79.

Sourceforge (LNUX) Still falling after bad financials. Down to $2.28 from 52-week high of $5.55.

Finisar (FNSR) Poor quarterly numbers kill em. Drops to $2.81 from 52-week high of $4.25.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 6, 2007 – 3:08 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

New 52-Week Lows (July 20, 2007)

STOCK TICKERS: ABK, ACA, BZH, LEN, DHI, RYL, CC, BX, FIG, FINL, HGSI, HSY, HW, JNY, NLS, REDE, TRMP, UBET, TZOO, WB

The DJIA may have hit 14,000 earlier.  A pullback here, some bad news there, and all of a sudden there are still many little piggies being sold off.  Here are some of the main stocks hitting 52-weeks lows today, and it is even an edited-down list:

AMBAC (ABK) $80.05
Whoops, insuring and guaranteeing debt.

ACA Capital (ACA) $6.40
Yep, still no word out of the company yet.  Trading and guaranteeing CDO’s and derivates isn’t what it was cracked up to be, and we still don’t know their real situation.

Beazer Homes (BZH), Lennar (LEN) DR Horton (DHI), Ryland (RYL)
One of its comps calling for crummy to 2009…ouch.

Circuit City (CC) $13.63
You knew this one wasn’t bottomed out yet.

Blackstone (BX) $25.95
Schwarzman isn’t responsible for this added drop, but he’ll do for the blame.

Fortress Inv. Group (FIG) $22.28
This hedge fund, boy…are they in private equity and CDO’s?  Not an intraday low, but its lowest close.

Finish Line (FINL) $7.88
Glad I removed it from the BAIT SHOP of buyout candidates when I did, this one must have 10 piggies in each of their shoes.

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) $8.61
Maybe genomics is such a 1990’s term.

Hershey (HSY) $47.84
This one was very overvalued for something you eat, so it squirts.

Headwaters (HW) $16.43

Jones Appareal (JNY) $26.62
Weren’t these guys supposed to sell out?

Nautilus (NLS) $9.14
When will a growth exercise and fitness company that warned be touted as a value stock?

Redenvelope (REDE) $5.05
Still don’t know anyone who has used this online e-tailer.

Trump Entertainment (TRMP) $9.50
The Donald’s casino operator can’t find a bottom without reaching under his back.

YouBet.com (UBET) $2.04
Bet this one isn’t done?

Travelzoo (TZOO) $23.00, prior intraday low was $23.16; high was $40.00+.
Online travel carnage continues….maybe France, Hong Kong, and Japan aren’t worth it.

Wachovia (WB) $49.98 close..prior 52-week low was $50.32.
Banks, they need someone to "Watch-ova-ya"

Jon C. Ogg
July 20, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: July 20, 2007 – 3:38 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (June 27, 2007)

BRKR raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CYT raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
FFIV cut to Neutral at Baird.
FIRE raised to Buy at Jefferies.
KSS raised to Outperform at Baird.
MLNM raised to Mkt Perform at FBR.
MOS cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
MTH started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
PHM started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
PRXL raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
RYL started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
TRS started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
TSO cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VLO cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VMSI cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.

Jon C. Ogg
June 27, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 27, 2007 – 6:54 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short Sellers Boost Bet Against Homebuilders (June 2007)

Stock Tickers: XHB, DHI, LEN, PHM, CTX, TOL, NVR, KBH, MDC, RYL, SPF, BZH, HOV

This can’t be a shock considering ‘how great’ the housing market is and how many new homes are selling in the US.  There was a boost to the short selling in US-based homebuilding stocks.  Oddly enough, the SPDR Hombuilder ETF (HXB) saw a fairly large drop, which means that traders are using this as a hedging instrument or they are deciding to go after the basket to to minimize headline risk in any one name.  We could have listed 1- more homebuilders, but we cut the list off at the $1 Billion market cap line.

Here are the changes in the number of shares in the Short Interest:

Stock    (Ticker)                    JUNE      MAY        Change
DR Horton (DHI)                30.14M    28.52M    +5.9%
Centex (CTX)                        17.2M    16.3M       +5.4%
Toll Brothers (TOL)            23.67M    22.75M    +4%
NVR Inc.(NVR)                      1.31M    961K        +40%
MDC Holdings (MDC)         7.19M    6.82M        +5.4%   
Ryland Group (RYL)            9.97M    9.43M        +5.6%
Standard Pacific (SPF)       16.92M   16.28M    +3.9%
Hovnanaian (HOV)              18.61M   17.52M    +6.2%
Lennar (LEN)                        15.52M   15.6M       -0.8%
Pulte Homs (PHM)               25.03M   25.13M    -0.4%
KB Home (KBH)                    17.64M   17.7M      -1.2%
Beazer Homes (BZH)           14.63M  15.96M    -8.3%

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 2:54 pm in Housing, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May Short Interest in Homebuilders Up (XHB, KBH, DHI, PHM, CTX, NVR, MDC, HOV, BZH, LEN, TOL, RYL)

Stock Tickers: XHB, KBH, DHI, PHM, CTX, NVR, MDC, HOV, BZH, LEN, TOL, RYL

The short interest for MAY 2007 is out.  We noticed an increase in the number of shares in the May short interest in the beloved homebuilders, although there are some whose short interest actually fell.  The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) saw its short interest rise from 19.724 million in April up to 20.233 million shares in May, or a 2.5% increase. 

Here is the rest of the May short interest versus April:

STOCK (Ticker)               MAY07    APR07    Change
KB Home (KBH)              17.87M    17.62M    1.4%
DR Horton (DHI)              28.52M    25.01M    14%
Pulte Homes (PHM)       25.13M    23.23M    8.2%
Centex (CTX)                   16.32M    15.19M    7.4%
NVR Inc. (NVR)                961K        928K       3.5%
MDC Hldgs. (MDC)         6.82M      6.08M      12%
Hovnanian (HOV)           17.52M    15.94M    9.9%
Beazer Homes (BZH)    15.97M    14.49M    10.1%

Drop
Lennar (LEN)                   15.65M    15.9M    -1.6%
Toll Brothers (TOL)         22.75M    23.09M    -1.5%
Ryland (RYL)                    9.44M      10.7M    -11.8%

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 22, 2007 – 8:32 am in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , ,