The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 7 points to 12,890.61 (0.05%), the NASDAQ rose more than 11 points (0.39%) to 2,927.23, and the S&P 500 rose 0.15% or 2 points to 1,351.96.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including A123 Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) cut to ‘sell’ at Wunderlich; Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) cut to ‘hold’ at S&P Capital IQ; Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) reiterated as ‘hold’ with $15 target price at Cannacord Genuity; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) cut to ‘perform’ at Oppenheimer and named ‘Bull of the Day’ at Zacks; and 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) cut to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) got a lift from a target price increase to $665, which we cover here. We’ve also got a story on how Apple gets 80% of the operating profit among all the phone makers.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is down -2.1% at $20.00 (here’s our coverage); American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) is down -8.74% at $5.50; Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is up 5.9% at $63.25; Dunkin’ Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: DNKN) is down -2.35% at $28.33; Lorillard Inc. (NYSE: LO) is up 9.8% at $124.46 after posting a new 52-week high of $127.68 earlier today; Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is down -3.6% at $64.37 (our coverage here); Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) is up 2.8% at $80.08 after setting a new 52-week high of $80.99 earlier today; Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is nearly flat at $2.19 (additional coverage here); and Teradata Corp. (NYSE: TDC) is up 10% at $63.85 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today of $64.97.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU) is up more than 79% at $6.02. The sugar refiner and marketer said it is nearing a sale of one of its divisions.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is up 20% at $11.08. The solar panel maker is getting a big boost from a report that China will add about 3,000 megawatts of solar PV generation this year, although some analysts think the total will be double that. Other Chinese solar panel makers are also getting a nice bump from the news. We have another view of the sudden rise here.

Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) is down more than -36% at $23.36 after posting a new 52-week low of $21.44 earlier today. The snack food maker will re-state accounting and that jeopardizes the deal to purchase the Pringles brand from Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG). See our coverage here.

Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is down more than -15% at $20.82. The Internet coupon company posted weak earnings last night. See our coverage here.

Taleo Corp. (NASDAQ: TLEO) is up more than 17% at $45.62 after posting a new 52-week high of $45.71. The maker of cloud-based software is being acquired by Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL). More coverage here and here.

Ceasars Entertainment Corp. (NASDAQ: CZR) is down about -3.8% at $14.80. The share price nearly doubled at yesterday’s IPO, to a high of $17.90, but the stock is coming back to earth today.

Stay tuned for Friday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto are speakingWe have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade report
• 9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report
• 2:00 p.m. – US Treasury budget report

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As far as earnings, SIRIUS XM made over $71 million for the quarter, or $0.01 EPS.  Sales were up 6.5% at $over $783 million.  Estimates from Thomson Reuters were $0.01 EPS and $785.49 million in revenues.  Revenues were projected to be about $3.3 billion against estimates of almost $3.4 billion.

In short, it was mostly in-line.  SIRIUS XM shares have recovered so much from the lows that it has to beat estimates to keep everyone happy.

The law of large numbers catches up to every company in time.  SIRIUS XM added 542,996 subscribers in the quarter and about 1.7 million in whole year of 2011.  For 2012, that projection is to add 1.3 million, which some price increases may increase churn modestly.

The notion that Sirius XM was started with new coverage at Underweight by Barclays earlier this week is only one more item showing concern.

The positive case: If we are really going to get an explosive auto market later on in 2012, SIRIUS XM stands to win.  Analysts still have a price target consensus of about $2.36 on this stock.  Seeking Alpha has a story titled “Buyback And Takeover Chatter For Sirius; CBS Looks Solid” and that might lure more bulls to tout the stock without even reading the article.

The reality is SIRIUS XM is worth over $8 billion today even after the drop, about 4-times Pandora’s $2.2 billion value.  Pandora is also only expected to report almost $420 million in sales for the year ended January 2013.

With almost 4 billion shares, it is too bad that a reverse stock split would only attract short sellers.  Imagine if SIRIUS XM was able to report earnings of $0.10 ot $0.15 per quarter rather than just a penny each quarter.  It would be a psychological boost.  The short sellers would attack it and the company knows that.  There were already 305 million shares in the short interest as of mid-January and that was the highest short interest reading since last May.

SIRIUS XM is trading down almost 2% at $2.15 against a 52-week range of $1.27 to $2.44.  We have already seen 63 million shares trade hands against an average of 55 million shares a day.  If SIRIUS XM is going to trade down on valuation, perhaps Pandora needs some caution as well unless it can score a massive swing higher in paying subscribers.  Pandora shares are trading down almost 3% at $13.51 versus a post-IPO range of $9.15 to $26.00 and versus a $16.00 IPO price.

As a reminder, investors do have stock options that can be used to hedge this one if they want to stick with it for the long haul.

JON C. OGG

We have compiled earnings preview on each company using Thomson Reuters consensus estimates and added color on each if applicable.  Some of these are market moving, some are sector moving, and some are just interesting for traders to watch around the earnings reports.

Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) estimates are $0.56 EPS and $2.2 billion in revenues. At $12.55, the maker of World of Warcraft has been very range bound.

Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) estimates are $1.57 EPS and $13.73 billion in revenues.

Carbonite Inc. (NASDAQ: CARB) estimates are -$0.23 EPS and $16.78 million in revenues. This will be a first real look of a full quarter and unfortunately this one has been cut in half as investors have tempered expectations for the personal data backup service provider.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 33 points to 12,878.43 (0.26%), the NASDAQ rose more than 2 points (0.07%) to 2,904.08, and the S&P 500 rose 0.20% or nearly 3 points to 1,347.05.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) started as ‘underweight’ at Barclays; IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) started as ‘buy’ with a $230 target price at Sterne Agee (our coverage here); AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) cut to ‘sell’ at Brean Murray; and Zoltek Cos. Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) cut to ‘underperform’ at Needham (our coverage here).

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is up 2.67% at $64.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $65.79 earlier today; ArcelorMittal AS (NYSE: MT) is up 3.5% at $22.19; BP plc (NYSE: BP) is down -0.41% at $46.68; Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) is up 1% at $68.71 (our coverage here); Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) is down -2.6% at $51.99; and Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) is down -6.5% at $8.31 (our coverage here).

Our preview of tomorrow’s earnings releases is here.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

The McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI) is up 21% at $2.71. The newspaper company reported stronger-than-expected earnings today on cost-cutting.

Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) is up 16.5% at $58.90 after posting a new 52-week high of $60.81 earlier today. The video rental company will join with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) to offer a streaming video service to compete with Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and others. More coverage here and here.

Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF) is up 15.8% at $4.69 after posting a new 52-week high of $4.85 earlier today. The homebuilder posted good earnings today and reported that orders are up 8% in January.

Nevsun Resources Ltd. (AMEX: NSU) is down more than -30% at $4.43. The junior gold miner issued a preliminary 2012 outlook that included a sharp drop in production and in its reserves estimates.

BioSante Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BPAX) is down more than -18% at $0.86. The company is the target of a new lawsuit charging it with misrepresentation. We have more coverage of BioSante here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. San Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams is giving a speech. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications report
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 1:00 p.m. – Treasury 10-year note auction

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AON Corporation (NYSE: AON) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Reiterated Outperform with $26 target at Credit Suisse.
Digital Realty (NYSE: DLR) Started as Sell at Cantor Fitzgerald.
Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Henry Schein, Inc. (NASDAQ: HSIC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) Started as Buy with $230 target at Stern Agee.  (LINK: FULL DETAILS)
Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack Inc. (NYSE: PBY) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) Started as Underweight at Barclays.
Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU) downgraded to Hold at RBS and Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
Sunoco Logistics, LP (NYSE: SXL) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Thor Industries, Inc. (NYSE: THO) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Sell at Brean Murray.
Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) Cut to Underperform at Needham (LINK: FULL SUMMARY).

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

We covered the short interest changes for the January 13 settlement date and compared them to the December 30 short interest data and added in other color if applicable.

Alcatel Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) rose to 22.54 million shares from over 18.2 million for a gain of almost 24%.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) rose 18.5% to 186.1 million from over 157 million at the end of December.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) saw nearly a 6% gain to 34.76 million shares in the short interest to its highest level in a year.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) saw a gain of 12% to 10.46 million shares during its time of accounting woes, but this is still not as large as in OCT/NOV-2011.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was down only marginally.  The solar leader (and whipping boy) was down again to 18.04 million shares from a reading of 18.7 million at the end of 2011. Be advised that this was FIVE STRAIGHT lower readings in the short interest.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) was up by 14.7% to 147.1 million.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) remains a battleground stock and the uptick was less than 1% to 26.489 million shares in the short interest.  That is still down about 10% from last year’s peak.

Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) posted another rise in the short interest to a new year record of over 32.2 million shares in the short interest.  So much for loving the lupus drug.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) continues to see rising bets against its stock.  The reading was 6.9 million shares short and that marks EIGHT STRAIGHT gains in the bets against the stock.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) may feel after-the-fact now that earnings are out, but the short interest rose by a sharp 25% to 11.422 million shares.  That is the highest short interest reading since last March.  Today’s gains have to be some short covering.

Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) has had the vultures circling it for some time but this last short interest reading of 36.6 million was down more than 3% and was actually the lowest short interest reading since the end of last July.  Maybe all the short-sale money has been made since the stock fell about 75%.

Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) always has a high short interest due to its low price and controversial stock… What is interesting is that the gain was not even 2% in short shares to 305 million BUT… That is the highest short interest since the end of last May.

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The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 12 points to 12,708.82 (-0.09%), the NASDAQ fell more than 2 points (-0.09%) to 2,784.17, and the S&P 500 rose 0.05% or less than 1 point to 1,316.00.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) cut to ‘sell’ at UBS; Sirius XM Radion Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) cut to ‘equal weight at Morgan Stanely; Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a $730 target price at Argus; Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG) cut to ‘hold’ at Stifel Nicolaus; and Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan.

Earnings reports since markets closed on Friday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) is up XX% at $XX; Twin Disc Inc. (NASDAQ: TWIN) is down -XX% at $XX; and PetsMed Express Inc. (NASDAQ: PETS) is up XX% at $XX. We also have a rundown of the 11 stocks included in the DJIA that will be reporting earnings this week.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Minefinders Corp. Ltd. (AMEX: MFN) is up nearly 23% at $13.94. The Canadian silver miner is being acquired by Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) for CDN$1.5 billion.

Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: GDP) is up more than 12% at $15.76. The natural gas producer is the biggest gainer among natural gas drillers following an announcement from Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) that it was reducing production this year.

Columbia Laboratories Inc. (NASDAQ: CBRX) is down more than -54% at $0.72 after posting a new 52-week low of $0.64 earlier today. The drug company’s progesterone vaginal gel was not approved by a committee of the US FDA.

The Standard Register Co. (NYSE: SR) is down nearly -14% at $2.18, a new 52-week low. The printing and services company announced that it would reduce its workforce by 15% and take other measures in a restructuring of the company. Layoffs would affect about 390 workers.

Rimage Corp. (NASDAQ: RIMG) is down nearly -11% at $11.77. The digital publishing provider lowered its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. The Federal Reserve’s open market committee meeting starts tomorrow, with a press conference with Fed chairman Ben Bernancke following at 2:30 p.m. ET. President Barack Obama delivers his state of the union address at 9:00 P.M ET. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 4-week Treasury bill auction
• 1:00 p.m. – 2-year Treasury note auction

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Amgen Corporation (NASDAQ: AMGN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Reiterated Buy with $730 price target at Argus.
Jive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: JIVE) Started as Buy at Citigroup; Started as Neutral at UBS; Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo; Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
NuVasive, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUVA) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) Cut to Equalweight at Barclays.
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Raised to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank; Reiterated as Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
Sanchez Energy Corporation (NYSE: SN) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
ViroPharma Incorporated (NASDAQ: VPHM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

While we have some valuation concerns on SIRIUS and while we have some concerns about the future of some of the satellite radio’s top media figures posing a talent departure risk, the news this week that the entire United States car fleet is at a record age is helping to drive Sirius XM bulls.

The same argument can be made for Pandora Media, Inc. (NYSE: P), and that can also be a threat to Sirius XM, but so far this remains a wild card.  Pandora’s stock is still at only about half of its post-IPO peak in 2011 even though it has managed to score several key auto-maker option pacts ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) also have a huge opportunity ahead.  Ford has even reinstated its dividend sooner than expected.  Car buyers are not ramping up hybrid buying due to cost, but many of the new cars sold will in fact be Sirius XM subscribers.  Some may even be Pandora subscribers.

Last night Jim Cramer even talked up the auto parts sector on CNBC’s MAD MONEY because of the coming car sales boom.  It turns out that even the most frugal of the frugal can only drive an old car for so long.  Eventually, the cost of maintenance and repairs exceeds the cost of a new car even if the car is not quite what a buyer would prefer to drive.  After all, what good is it to have a car with a $30,000 new sticker price  that is 80% or 90% devalued for trade-in if you have to keep putting in $200 to $500 every three months in repairs and band-aid work?

SIRIUS shares closed out 2011 at $1.82, and now shares are up 18% even though today’s $2.15 price is a tiny loss.  Here are some year-to-date comparisons for 2012 so far: Pandora is up 29.5% YTD,  Ford is up almost 17% YTD, and GM is up 21% YTD in 2012.

JON C. OGG

Pandora has also recently signed a deal with satellite TV provider Dish Network Inc. (NASDAQ: DISH).

Pandora does not require a subscription, and the company’s 125 million registered users far outnumbers Sirius XM’s 22 million subscribers. Pandora also claims a 68% share of Internet radio listeners who tune in an average of 18 hours a month, according to reseach firm Triton Digital.

In recent comments at a media conference, Sirius XM’s CEO Mel Karmazin had this to say about Pandora:

Pandora is a really good company. They’ve been around for as long as we have — they’ve been around for about 10 years. They have about 40 million regular users, maybe more now, and they have $300 million in revenue. So, you know, business models matter. We like our business model of subscription better than the advertising-driven model.

Karmazin’s boosterism aside, Pandora and other Internet radio/music services are a real threat to the Sirius XM model. For Internet users, ‘free’ is the model they like best and most are willing to put up with some advertising to get free music.

What Sirius has on its side, though, is a radio model that is understood by the music industry better than the models of companies like Pandora, Spotify, or MOG. Karmazin can leverage that understanding into lower costs for content than the huge upfront fees music companies demand from the likes of Spotify, which offers a hybrid advertising/subscriber model, and has just released its own radio player to compete with Pandora.

Whether Pandora, or Internet radio in general, can displace Sirius XM remains to be seen. If Sirius lowers its subscription price (rather than hiking it) anytime soon, we’ll have our first evidence that Karmazin is more concerned than he lets on.  Maybe radio programs with Howard, Oprah, Martha, and news just aren’t really important… Maybe. 

Paul Ausick