Teen stores Buckle and Zumiez battered expectations, while Gap and Wet Seal both missed expectations badly.

Data from CNBC.

Shares had risen from under $26 to over $35 based upon Ron Johnson’s taking the helm.  Prior to that, J.C. Penney had been somewhat on life support compared to Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS).  It did manage to do better than Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS).

The retail chain posted December same-store sales of 0.3% versus an expected drop of -0.1%.  Last year the company posted a same-store sales increase of 3.7%.  The outlook is as follows: “Due to the softer sales performance during the first two months of the quarter, the Company now anticipates that comparable store sales for the fourth quarter will be down slightly to last year. Earnings before one-time items identified below, are now expected to be in the range of $0.65 to $0.70 per share on a non-GAAP basis, reflecting lower sales and higher markdown activity than anticipated throughout the quarter.”  The consensus estimate had been $1.08 EPS.

Investors who missed getting in on this one may look at the news with a smile because it at least allows them a closer chance of getting in on a transformation in the making. Ron Johnson, the brains behind the retail effort of the hugely successful stores of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), has taken over as CEO.  For new investors, this is not a fourth quarter story.  This is not a story of guidance for the current quarter, and it may not even be a story of strong results in 2012. 

Ron Johnson is set to transform the look and feel of this company entirely.  The company has already signed a deal with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) for branded merchandise for years ahead.  Johnson is going to unveil his new store design later this month (January 25) and here is a photo of the invite that was sent to me last night:

Penney’s shares are down about 6.2% at $32.75 and the 52-week range is $23.44 to $41.00.  This drop still only gets the stock back down to the prior consensus price target of $32.31 from Thomson Reuters.  Unfortunately, this turnaround story is not cheap against other retailers on a forward earnings valuation.  That happens to be the case in many turnarounds as investors sometimes pay a premium to get in line.

New investors and those on the sidelines may hope that the stock gets back into the high $20′s.  That may happen and it may not.  When you consider that Ron Johnson is likely going to revamp the company from the ground up and give a major facelift to bring the Apple-cool through the doors and when you consider that Apple’s playbook has been to “underpromise and over-deliver,” this drop may be a blessing for new and interested investors.

The good news is that the stock also offers stock options so investors van hedge their turnaround bets rather easily.  Options expire on January 20, 2012, but the February options make it easy to invest with providing downside protection of about only 5% risk in the next six weeks.  For a turnaround story under a great new retail leader, that might be a gift.

The other side of the coin is simple, even if hard to consider: What if Ron Johnson flops?  It is easy to argue that clothing, accessories and household products have no catalyst like Apple did a decade ago.

Stay tuned.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 63 points to 12,170.86 (0.52%), the NASDAQ rose more than 21 points (0.83%) to 2,599.45, and the S&P 500 rose 0.83% or more than 10 points to 1,254.07.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) raised from ‘sector perform’ to ‘outperform’ at RBC Capital Markets. Other ratings actions today include Agrium Corp. (NYSE: AGU) cut from ‘outperform’ to ‘sector perform’ at RBC Capital Markets; Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) cut from ‘outperform’ to ‘neutral’ at Zack’s; Vivus Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) cut from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ at Roth Capital and maintained ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) maintained as ‘buy’ with an $11 target price at Sterne Agee and maintained as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse.

Here are some of last night’s and today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Micron Technology is up nearly 18% at $6.54; American Greetings Inc. (NYSE: AM) is down more than -21% at $13.37, after posting a new 52-week low of $12.85 earlier in the day; CPI Corp. (NYSE: CPY) is down more than -62% at $2.00, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.96 earlier in the day; Neogen Corp. (NASDAQ: NEOG) is down nearly -3% at $31.15; Tibco Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TIBX) is up nearly 8% at $23.74; and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) is down more than -6% at $57.70.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

RAM Energy Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: RAM) is up nearly 71% at $1.88. The independent oil & gas company has today relisted on the NASDAQ and has also announced a $550 million investment from a private equity firm headed by the former chairman and CEO of Petrohawk.

WCA Waste Corp. (NASDAQ: WCAA) is up nearly 31% at $6.43, after posting a new 52-week high of $6.44 earlier. The non-hazardous waste processor has approved a cash buyout offer for $526 million ($6.50/share) from a private investment fund.

ARCA biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: ABIO) is down more than -24% at $1.02, after posting a new 52-week low of $0.97 earlier today. The biopharmaceutical firm announced a private placement of $1.75 million in stock and warrants.

PHH Corp. (NYSE: PHH) is down more than -15% at $11.01 after posting a new 52-week low of $8.75 earlier today. The mortgage servicer’s credit ratings were cut at S&P to ‘BB-’ on concern that the company would not be able to make a $423 million debt repayment scheduled for March 2013 out the its free cash flow.

Vivus Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) is down more than -16% at $8.72 after posting a new 52-week low of $8.60 earlier. The biopharmaceutical firm announced that its weight-loss drug Qnexa led to a higher rate of birth defects in children whose mothers were taking the drug during pregnancy.

LRR Energy, L.P. (NYSE: LRR) is up more than 9% at $19.34. The independent oil & gas company has received positive ratings from several brokers following last week’s more than 9 million new common units.

Stay tuned for Friday. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Durable goods orders report
• 8:30 a.m. – Personal income and spending report
• 10:00 a.m. – New home sales

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Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S.A. (NYSE: BLX) named as value stock of the day at Zacks Investment Research.
Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Zacks Investment Research.
HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) maintained Underperform but also named as Bear of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Jefferies Group, Inc. (NYSE: JEF) Cut to Hold from Buy by Meredith Whitney (Late-Wednesday call).
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Maintained Buy with $11 target at Stern Agee; maintained as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.
Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Zacks Investment Research.
VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital; Maintained as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 17 points to 12,096.39 (0.14%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 29 points (1.09%) to 2,686.20, and the S&P 500 rose 0.48% or more than 6 points to 1,257.80.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: A) raised to ‘buy’ at BofA/ML. Other action included Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) reiterated at ‘neutral’ by Argus; Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) target raised from $25 to $28 at Argus; Alimera Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: ALIM) cut to ‘neutral’ with a $2 target at Credit Suisse.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is down about -2.25%, at $57.57; Beazer USA Homes Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is down about -0.5%, at $2.21; Covidien plc (NYSE: COV) is up nearly 2.5%, at $48.44; Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE: DKS) is up nearly 5.5%, at $41.73; TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) is up about 1% at $61.16; and Saks, Inc. (NYSE: SKS) is up 2.5%, at $10.46. For a more detailed look at today’s retail earnings, see our earlier story.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Moneygram International, Inc. (NYSE: MGI) is up about 616%, at $18.68. The company announced a 1-for-8 reverse stock split this morning, shrinking the number of outstanding shares from 1.3 billion to 162.5 million. The stock closed yesterday at $2.61, and posted a new 52-week high this morning of $19.61.

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is up nearly 30%, at $1.31. There is no direct news from the company, but the price jump is very likely related to an announcement yesterday from Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) that it was building a new plant in Canada that would double its annual production of ethanol.

Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ: NLST) is up more than 24%, at $2.92. The company has signed deals with both IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) under which Netlist’s cloud memory product undergo qualification testing for use with the two companies’ servers.

FriendFinder Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) is down more than -20%, at $1.50, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.42. The company has been notified of a class-action lawsuit charging that it made false statements related the number of shares of stock subject to the 180-day lock-up period following the company’s IPO last May.

Meritor, Inc. (NYSE: MTOR) is down more than -17%, at $6.58. The company reported solid earnings today, but cut next year’s revenue guidance by about 10%.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Jeffrey Lacker and Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren are giving speeches tomorrow. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage purchase applications
• 8:30 a.m. – Consumer price index
• 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve industrial production index
• 10:00 a.m. – Housing market index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

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The world’s largest retailer managed to beat revenue expectations, but missed EPS estimates by a penny. Walmart posted revenue of $110.2 billion, up more than 8% from the same period a year ago and about 2% higher than estimates of $108.1 billion. The consensus EPS estimate called for $0.98, about 10% below EPS in the 2010 third quarter, but Walmart managed only $0.97. One bright spot for the company is that same-store sales for the quarter rose 1.3%, nearly double estimates of 0.7%.

Home Depot beat both EPS and revenue expectations, posting EPS of $0.60 on revenue of $17.3 billion. Consensus estimates called for EPS of $0.58 on revenue of $17.1 billion. The company also boosted its dividend, from an annual rate of $1/share to $1.16, up 16%. Home Depot also raised EPS guidance from $2.34 to $2.38. Home Depot’s report stands in stark contrast to competitor Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW), which disappointed analysts on same-store sales and expenses related to store closures. Home Depot also reported quarterly same-store sales growth of 4.2%, far better than Lowe’s 0.7% rise.

High-end retailer Saks reported revenue for its third quarter of $692.3 million, lower than the consensus estimate of $695.1 million. EPS totaled $0.11, beating expectations of $0.09. Same store sales rose 5.8% for the quarter and 10.3% for the nine months. The company forecast same-store sales growth in the fourth quarter in the ‘mid-to-high single digit range.’ However gross margin is expected to decline by 0.5%. Gross margin in the third quarter rose by 1.6% year-over-year, and the decline is mostly due to expected promotional pricing.

TJX Companies missed on revenues, but did meet EPS estimates. The company reported this morning that EPS came in at $1.06, exactly on the consensus estimate, while revenue of $5.8 billion was below the estimate of $5.85 billion. Same-store sales were up 3% year-over-year. The company forecast full-year EPS of $3.94-$3.97, compared with the current analysts’ estimate of $3.97. The fourth-quarter EPS estimate was unchanged, at $1.19-$1.23. TJX raised its same-store sales guidance from 1%-2% to 2%-3%, but gave no guidance on gross margins, which came in at 28.1% in the third quarter.

Staples reported EPS of $0.47, as expected, but revenue of $6.6 billion failed to meet expectations of $6.7 billion. The company forecast fourth-quarter EPS of $0.39-$0.43, while analysts are expecting $0.43. Full-year adjusted EPS is forecast at $1.35-$1.39, compared with an estimate of $1.39. The full-year EPS forecast declined from a previous range of $1.39-$1.45. The company also tried to sweeten the news by boosting its full-year share buyback total from $300-$500 million to $600 million.

J.C. Penney posted an EPS loss of -$0.67 after the markets closed yesterday, but adjusted for certain items, EPS came in at $0.11, considerably better than the consensus call for an EPS loss of -$0.12. The company guided fourth quarter adjusted EPS at $1.05-$1.15, where analysts had expected $1.15. Same-store sales fell in the quarter, by -1.6%, and total sales fell year-over-year by -4.8%. The new CEO, Ron Johnson who came from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), started work on November 1st and promises a strategy review in time for the company’s investor meeting in January.

Urban Outfitters posted disappointing results after markets closed yesterday, even though EPS beat expectations by a penny. Same-store sales were off by -7%, and revenues of $610 million missed estimates of $614 million. Gross margins fell by nearly -6%.

A capsule review of these earnings reports points to a relatively flat fourth-quarter, with the exceptions of Home Depot and Saks. Home Depot has managed its operations better than has Lowe’s and its dividend boost is the second this year. Saks benefits from its position in the luxury retail sector, which is were the money and the growth are. For the others, the predicted 1%-2% holiday season sales boost means only that competition will be even more fierce, putting pressure on margins and profits.

Shares of Saks are up about 1.75%, at $10.38 in a 52-week range of $7.67-$12.97. Walmart shares are down about -2.3%, at $57.52, in a 52-week range of $48.31-$59.40. Home Depot is up about 1%, at $38.63, in a 52-week range of $28.13-$39.38. Urban Outfitters is down more than -3.25%, at $25.95, after posting a new 52-week low of $25.69 earlier this morning. Staples is down more than -4.25%, at $14.72, in a 52-week range of $11.94-$23.75.

Paul Ausick

A couple of weeks ago we looked at implied share price gains at several retailers, and today we’ll take a more focused look at mall anchor stores. Three retailers from our previous survey are included: Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); and Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS). We’ve added J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), and Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD).

In just two weeks, the target prices for Macy’s, Nordstrom’s, and Kohl’s have all changed. Macy’s and Kohl’s have had their targets reduced, while Nordstrom’s has risen. The likely reason is for the better outlook for higher-end retailers like Nordstrom. Macy’s Bloomingdale’s stores are expected to do better as well during the holiday season, but the impact on Macy’s overall revenues and earnings isn’t as decisive.

Saks, Dillard’s, Penney’s, and Sears have all broken through the most recent target prices posted at Yahoo! Finance. Either analysts have stopped caring or the shares are over-achievers, at least for the time being.

All data from Yahoo! Finance. Current share price info gathered just before noon today.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has a median target price of $34.00 from 13 brokers. Shares are trading today at $31.81, for an implied gain of $2.19, or 7%. Macy’s forward P/E is 10.45 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $21.69-$31.35, and at today’s price that’s about 46% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and just 2% below the 52-week high. Macy’s has forecast total revenue growth of 4.5% for the year, with growth at its Bloomingdale’s stores up 7%. That’s not as healthy as it sounds, though, because total sales were up more than 6% year-to-date through September, indicating that holiday sales growth won’t be as robust as the rest of the year.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) has a median target price of $54.00 from 20 brokers. Shares are trading today at $51.52, for an implied gain of $2.48, or 5%. Nordstrom’s forward P/E is 14.36 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.8%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $37.28-$53.35, and at today’s price that’s about 38% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and just 3% below the 52-week high. Nordstrom’s shares posted a new 52-week high earlier this week and is well within reach of another if October sales come in substantially higher than expected. The company’s position as a high-end retailer should attract more holiday traffic and more sales.

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) has a median target price of $61.50 from 18 brokers. Shares are trading today at $53.71, for an implied gain of $7.79, or 14.5%. Kohl’s forward P/E is 10.48 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $42.14-$58.00, and at today’s price that’s about 27% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 7% below the 52-week high. Kohl’s shares are up more than $3 since our last look at the company just two weeks ago. The company has added a total of 38 new stores since January, and that ought to drive nicely higher revenue. Kohl’s is also upping its seasonal hiring by 5% over last year, adding 40,000 temporary workers for this holiday season.

J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP) has a median target price of $28.00 from 11 brokers. Shares are trading today at $33.18, nearly 16% above the target price. Penney’s forward P/E is 4.37 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.4%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $23.44-$41.00, and at today’s price that’s about 42% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 19% below the 52-week high. Penney’s has sold off another 15 of its outlet stores as it continues on a path to close all of them by the end of next year. The company also recently acquired the Liz Claiborne brand and announced a $900 million share buyback. Even though the share price has broken through the median target price, it is still well short of its 52-week high.

Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) has a median target price of $11.00 from 9 brokers. Shares are trading today at $11.15, about 1.4% above the target price. Saks’ forward P/E is 22.32 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $7.67-$12.97, and at today’s price that’s about 45% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 14% below the 52-week high. Saks is on track to double its full-year EPS this year, from $0.19 last year to $0.39 this year. Like Nordstrom’s, Saks is a higher-end player and those customers are expected to spend more this holiday season. Shares are down more than -5% today, though, on no news.

Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) has a median target price of $52.50 from just 2 brokers. Shares are trading today at $52.52, fractionally above the target price. Dillard’s forward P/E is 11.84 and the company pays a dividend yield of 0.4%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $25.31-$61.08, and at today’s price that’s about 108% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 14% below the 52-week high. Dillard’s stock price has doubled in the past 12 months, setting an all time high for the company in July. Analysts seem completely underwhelmed by the company’s performance. The outlook calls for continued growth through the holiday season. What’s not to like here?

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) has a median target price of $44.00 from just 3 brokers. Shares are trading today at $79.40, nearly 45% above the target price. Sears’ forward P/E is negative and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $51.14-$94.79, and at today’s price that’s about 55% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 16% below the 52-week high. Sears has struck deals to sell Craftsman brand tools through Ace Hardware stores and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) stores. The company suffers from a poor customer service reputation and low customer loyalty. Sears’ estimated EPS loss for the full fiscal year is now set at -$1.48, half a buck worse than expected just three months ago. Until the shares get closer to the 52-week high, no one is going to care much about target prices.

Paul Ausick

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Cut estimates and target to $200 at Credit Suisse; maintained Buy at BofA/ML.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $70 at Argus.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) Raised estimates at BofA/ML.
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: CHRW) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Hold at Kaufman; Cut to Hold at Jefferies; Cut to Sell at S&P Capital IQ (late Tuesday).
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN) Raised to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late Tuesday).
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Mitcham Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: MIND) named the Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Saks, Inc. (NYSE: SKS) named Aggressive Growth stock of the day at Zacks.
Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) Cu to Neutral at Collins Stewart.
Youku.com Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.

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JON C. OGG

Even though the NRF is predicting lower per capita spending, the group is estimating that holiday sales will increase by 2.8% in November and December compared with last year. The NRF also said yesterday that cargo volume at the major US container ports is expected to jump by 2.6% in October over last year’s volume. Container traffic was down -7% in August, the last month for which final figures are known.

The NRF has discounted the falling volume as an aberration in 2010, when a projected shortage of shipping containers caused US buyers to ship holiday goods in July and August. Estimated September 2011 cargo volume grew by 2.7% year-over-year, October volume is expected to grow by 2.6%, November by 4%, and December by 2.7%. Total container volume for 2011 is expected to rise 1.8% year-over-year, very far below the 16% growth in 2010 over 2009.

On-line buying is expected to increase from 43.9% of consumers last year to 46.7%. On-line shoppers also expect to spend more than average — about 22% more. Smartphones and tablets are gaining ground as on-line shopping aids. Nearly 53% of smartphone owners will use their phones for shopping and buying, and 70% of tablet owners will do the same. The trend is particularly strong among college-age adults, where 72% say they will use smartphones and 86% say they’ll use their tablets.

These are impressive numbers, but perhaps more impressive is the fact that nearly 57% of survey respondents say they do not yet own a smartphone or a tablet. That suggests that the mobile devices could indeed be a hot item for holiday buying, whether as a gift or for personal use.

Retail spending growth this year will not equal last year’s large uptick. Partly that’s because 2009 was such a weak holiday selling season that 2010 had to clear a very low bar. But earlier this year, 2011 projections for holiday selling were 5% higher than 2010. The projection now is for 2.6%, and that is largely due to US consumers’ worries about the economy.

Paul Ausick

High-end US retailers include Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), the Bloomingdale’s stores owned by Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Norstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), and Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH). Same-store sales have been good at these retailers and the outlook for the third quarter for all has been very solid.

Tiffany doesn’t report monthly sales, but its second-quarter revenues were 24% higher year-over-year and same-store sales in the quarter rose 22%. Earnings rose 33% and the company posted adjusted EPS of $0.86, more than 20% higher than analysts expected. For the company’s fiscal year, which ends in January 2012, Tiffany expects a sales boost in the high-teens, a rise in operating margin of 1%, and an increase in EPS from a previously guided $3.45-$3.55 to $3.65-$3.75.

For Tiffany’s third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $0.60 on revenues of $806 million, rising to EPS of $1.64 on revenues of $1.27 billion in the fourth quarter. The third quarter revenue estimate is lower than the company’s second-quarter total. That is likely due to an expected drop in sales in emerging countries, particularly China, where growth in the sales of luxury goods is expected to fall as the country’s economy cools off.

Saks Fifth Avenue reported same-store sales growth of 9.3% in September and a two-month jump of 8.0%. For the year-to-date, Saks’ same-store sales are up 11.5%. For the current quarter, which ends this month, Saks is expected to post revenue of $698 million and EPS of $0.09. For its fourth quarter, expectations rise to EPS of $0.16 on revenue of $916 million.

Macy’s reported same-store sales rose 4.9% in September and said that sales for the third and fourth quarters would be at the high-end of guidance at 4%-4.5%. Analysts are forecasting that Macy’s third-quarter EPS will be  $0.16, rising to $1.66 in the fourth quarter. Revenue for the third quarter is forecast at $5.88 billion, rising to $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Nordstrom’s same-store sales jumped 10.7% in September, more than double analysts’ expectations. Third-quarter revenue is expected to reach $2.34 billion with EPS of $0.57. In the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to rise to $3.1 billion and EPS is forecast at $1.11.

Ralph Lauren does not report monthly sales. The company’s revenues are nearly equally split between its retail stores and its wholesale and licensing businesses. For the third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $2.23 on revenue of $1.84 billion. For the fourth quarter, EPS is expected to reach $1.74 on revenue of $1.77 billion. Compared with the same periods a year ago, third-quarter EPS is expected to rise nearly 7%, while fourth-quarter EPS is expected to rise by just over 1%.

Coach reported fiscal year 2011 numbers in August, including a jump in same-store sales of 10.6% for the year. For its first fiscal quarter of 2012, the company is expected to post EPS of $0.70 on revenue of $1.02 billion. For the second quarter, ending in December, EPS is expected to reach $1.14 on sales of $1.42 billion.

According to a recent survey, consumers with discretionary incomes above $250,000 plan to spend about 7% more during this year’s holiday season. [http://www.jckonline.com/2011/10/10/only-richest-consumers-spending-more-this-holiday] Those with incomes between $100,000 and $250,000, however, are expecting to spend about 17% less. For those with incomes below $100,000, spending will fall by 28%.

Those with discretionary incomes above $100,000 who say they plan to spend less this year are not worried about the economy. They claim that they already have too much stuff.

At the other end of the spectrum, an indicator of expectations at the lower end of the income distribution is the number of containers arriving at US ports. The Port of Long Beach is expecting a 15% drop year-over-year from last September, and the number of containers coming into New York-New Jersey is only flat with last year.

Jewelry and high-end handbags don’t make up those shipments, but goods headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) do. That pretty well sums up the state of the US economy and this year’s outlook for holiday sales.

Paul Ausick