Posts for Ticker ‘SMH’

Applied Materials 360-Degree View Before Earnings (AMAT, SMH, USD)

AMAT LogoApplied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is on deck for earnings this afternoon right after the market closes. The chip equipment giant, and relatively new solar player, is the king of its sector to most traders and investors and will potentially have an impact on all the chip equipment stocks in the sector.  Estimates from Thomson Reuters are $0.03 EPS and $1.32 billion in revenues for its October quarter, which is also its year-end with estimates of -$0.14 EPS and $4.80 billion in revenues.

Applied Materials does represent about 13.55% of the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH) ETF, but only represents about 5% of the Ultra Semiconductor ProShares (NYSE: USD) ETF.  We will be looking to its fiscal-2010 comments more than this last quarter.
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Intel Bedazzles (INTC, SMH, USD)

Intel LogoIntel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has just reported earnings and gave guidance for the quarter ahead.  The processor giant posted $0.33 EPS and $9.39 billion in revenues.  Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters were $0.28 EPS and $9.04 billion in revenues.  Gross margin also came in 57.6%, above expectations of 54%.  Intel gave guidance of  $10.1 billion in revenues, plus or minus $400 million; it also gave guidance for 62% gross margin, plus or minus 3 points.  Next quarter’s estimates from Thomson Reuters are $0.34 EPS on $9.51 billion in revenues.
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Intel To Set Tech Earnings Pace (INTC, AMD, SMH, USD)

Intel LogoIntel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reports earnings after the close of trading today and is the first of the tech giants to report.  Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters have actually come up a bit in recent days on rounding higher.  We now show that consensus estimates are $0.28 EPS and $9.04 billion in revenues (up from $0.27 and $9.02 billion last week).  Intel does generally offer guidance and next quarter estimates are $0.34 EPS on $9.51 billion in revenues.   What we want to look at are what the charts, analysts, and stock options are factoring in.

  • While we will be looking for direct comparisons in Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is the most directly tied to the company because of processors.  And in ETF-Land, Intel’s weighting in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH) is approximately 23% and it is 29.1% of the weighting of the Ultra Semiconductor ProShares (NYSE: USD).

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NASDAQ Toppy? Chartist/Technician Notes Secular Bear (QQQQ, SMH, XLK)

Bull and Bear ImageWhat happens when you get a pullback after the markets have rallied some 50% from the lows of the year?  Technicians key in with the charts, and much of the market bullishness suddenly disappears.  Throw in a the slowest or second slowest market week (Labor Day and the week between Christmas and New Years).  We have started seeing some troubling data on the charts and in the performance of stocks on good news, which is presumably because the prices have become so elevated.  One of our affiliates has recently come out with a key NASDAQ watch alert here, and the key ETF play we would watch on this are the PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ), the Semiconductor HOLDRS (NYSE: SMH), and Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK) because these are effectively the most liquid and active of technology ETF products that would generally react to NASDAQ-specific moves.
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Intel Calling For Seasonal Strength (INTC, SMH)

Intel LogoIntel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) posted earnings, and the chip and processor giant made $0.18  in non-GAAP EPS and $8.02 billion in revenues.  Thomson Reuters estimates of $0.08 EPS on $7.27 billion in revenues.  Gross margins were also ahead of plan at 50.8%.  This is even having an impact in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH) since Intel has a 23% weighting in that ETF.
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Texas Instruments Sweetens Its Tune (TXN, SMH)

It appears that the weakness being seen in many of the mobile handset makers isn’t really hurting Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN).  The company gave its mid-quarter update and narrowed its prior guidance to levels that are actually above the First Call consensus:

  • The new revenue range is $3.50 to $3.66 Billion, with consensus at $3.56 Billion.
  • The new EPS range is $0.50 to $0.54, with consensus at $0.50.

Shares of Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) closed up 0.6% at $32.67 today, but shares are up almost 4% at $33.94 in after-hours trading.  The 52-week trading range is $28.24 to $39.63.

Even the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) rose 0.9% to $34.00 in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg
December 10, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Intel Margins & Guidance Cause Cheers (INTC)

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has reported earnings of $0.31 EPS and $10.1 Billion in revenues, versus First Call estimates $0.30 EPS and $9.62 Billion in revenues. It said microprocessor units set a record and the average selling price was flat; chipset and flash units set records, but motherboard sales were lower.  Gross margins came in at 52.4% and the company is offering 57% +/- 1% for the coming quarter.

It is putting next quarter revenues in a $10.5 to $11.1 Billion range compared to estimates for next quarter of $0.37 EPS & revenues $10.4 Billion.  This guidance for revenue and margins has shares up about 2.5% in after-hours trading.  Intel shipped more than 2 million quad core processors during the quarter.

Intel shares did close down 1% on the day but ahead of the numbers shares were within about 3% of 52-week highs, and are up almost 40% from the 52-week lows.  Intel’s conference call is at 5:30 PM EST today.  At $26.20 in after-hours trading this is only about 1% under those recent $26.58 highs.  Shares of smaller rival AMD are up marginally and the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) are indicated up about 0.5% at $36.35 in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg
October 16, 2007

National Semiconductor, Good But Maybe Not Enough (NSM, SMH)

National Semiconductor (NYSE:NSM) posted $0.30 EPS on revenues of $471.5 million versus analyst targets of $0.25 EPS on revenues of $467.4 million (on items).  The company is guiding sales up 4% to 7% or an implied range of $490.36 to $504.5 Million, which compares to analyst estimates of just under $496 million. 

National Semi said its sales growth in the first quarter was on increased demand for new analog products, primarily in the wireless handset and portable device markets. Bookings rose by 6% sequentially and gross margin increased to 63.0% and it trimmed inventories by about $10 million.  Gross margin is expected to improve while operating expenses are also projected to increase.

As part of the cumulative $2.4 Billion share repurchase program, the company executed $1.5 billion of the approved buy back through a leveraged accelerated share repurchase program, financed through a combination of unsecured bonds and bank facilities. National Semi’s weighted average shares was 283.9 million shares, down from 327.5 million shares in the preceding quarter. As of the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2008, National had approximately $880 million still available under approved programs for future stock repurchases.

Shares were halted for the news, but after re-opening shares are down over 2% at just under $26.00.  Shares closed up $0.08 at $26.58 in normal trading and the 52-week range is $21.65 to $29.69.  Unless there are some major surpises in the conference call that "non-directional chart" is likely to continue.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) are down 0.8% now that National Semi has resumed trading.

Jon C. Ogg
September 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Texas Instruments: Earnings Half Full or Half Empty? (TXN, BRCM, QCOM, SMH)

Texas Instruments,Inc. (NYSE:TXN) will post earnings after the close, and First Call estimates are $0.42 EPS and $3.45 billion in revenues.  We usually get guidance of out of Texas Instruments, and next quarter consensus is $0.49 EPS on $3.7 billion revenues with fiscal December-2007 $1.76 EPS on $14.1 Billion revenues.

It wasn’t all that long ago that shares of Texas Instruments were in a slump, and it has gained with the sector.  Shares are up some roughly 30% since the start of April.  Analysts have an average price target just north of $40.00, not much higher than the $38.60 price today.  This implies that if analysts are going to endorse the stock that they will have to raise targets for the mobile chip and components giant.  Shares of the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE:SMH) were at an adjusted $33.35 on April 2, so those shares are up less than Texas Instruments with their 20% performance since that date.

If there is a sell-off in shares, technicians may view the chart as no longer being in a near-term up-trend.  Longer-term chartists still have a decent cushion before they’d start really worrying.  Shares trade currently with a forward P/E ratio for 2007 of 21.8.  Perhaps the most interesting notes will be what this company says about cell phone makers.  Companies to watch based on Texas Instruments are Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) (Broadcom just reported last week) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), although it is big enough it can spill over into many chip names.  What has accounted for part of recent outperformance?  Ties and more hopes for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. 

Just last quarter the company noted it was seeing a rebound in orders and expected to see sequential growth. On the June 11 mid-quarter update, TI gave the following guidance: Total revenue between $3.36 billion and $3.51 billion, compared with the prior range of $3.32 billion to $3.60 billion; Semiconductor revenue between $3.20 billion and $3.34 billion, compared with the prior range of $3.14 billion to $3.40 billion; and Education Technology revenue between $160 million and $170 million, compared with the prior range of $180 million to $200 million (lower estimate reflects delays by retailers in stocking their back-to-school calculator inventory until closer to the start of school in the third quarter).  TI also said its expects EPS from continuing operations between $0.40 and $0.44, compared with the previous range of $0.39 to $0.45.

Jon C. Ogg
July 23, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Short Sellers Taking Heat in Semiconductor Stocks July 2007

Stock Tickers: AMD, SMH, TXN, TER, ADI, LSI, MU, CY, NSM, TSM, STM, IFX

Tech stocks kept rising from June to July, yet the short sellers were beligerent.  They must have loads of money, because on individual short selling in stocks they lost more and more money if this trend remained static as it looks.  Short selling increased overall on the NYSE as seen on the NYSE notice, but this went above and beyond.  Here was a sector breakdown for the May to June period for 2007 if you want to compare. Here are the chip stock results for the major chip names listed on NYSE:

Advanced Micro (AMD) grew from 73.78M in June to 81.25M in July; Texas Instruments (TXN) grew from 30.6M in June to 33.3M in July; LSI Logic (LSI) grew from 43.77M in June to 49.75M in July; Micron (MU) grew from 50.37M in June to 59.99M in July, National Semi (NSM) went from high to higher after growing from 52.93M in June to 59.3M in July; Cypress Semi (CY) saw its 15.49M in June grow to 17.52M in July, Analog Devices (ADI) saw its 7.77M in June grow to 9.05M in July; Taiwan Semi (TSM) saw its 13.73M in June grow to 14.05M in July.

There were a few standouts as far as the actual drop in the short interest.  The most interesting drop out there came in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) as the short interest fell from 35.2M in June down to 25.6M in July, so go figure.  Teradyne (TER) fell from 14.2M in June to 13.05M in July; STMicro (STM) saw its short interest drop from 3.7M in June down to 2.89M in July;

Jon C. Ogg
July 20, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers. 

Intel Margins Playing Against Earnings (INTC, SMH)

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) posted EPS at $0.22 on $8.7 Billion in revenues, but there is a $0.03 tax item that increased earnings and there was $82 million in restructuring charges. First Call put expectations at $0.19 EPS and $8.54 Billion.  Intel shares closed up 1.4% on 108 million shares at $26.32 and anything above $26.04 on the day was an 18-month high.  Second-quarter gross margin was 46.9 percent, lower than the midpoint of the previous expectations and under the 48% expected by Wall Street.  Total microprocessor units were higher sequentially; the ASP (average sale price) was lower.  Sounds like the Avanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) processor price strategy is not an entirely ‘in the past’ issue, even if Intel is the winner.

Here is Intel’s guidance versus estimates: Q3 $9 Billion to $9.6 Billion versus expected revenues of $9.36 Billion It is putting gross margins at 52% for Q3 and 51% for 2007.  Earlier we noted how the options expiration and strike prices could act as a magnet after today going into the expiration on Friday.  Shares are now down over 4% in after-hours at $25.25, so if this holds it looks like that $25.00 was the answer.  We’ll know tomorrow.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE:SMH) closed up 1.7% at $41.00 on a new recent high not seen since the end of 2003 to early 2004; although the Semiconductor HOLDRs are down more than 1% in after-hours trading. 

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Intel: Earnings Taking Stock to $27.50 or $25.00? (INTC, NVLS, AMD, SMH)

After today’s close we’ll get to see earnings out of processor giant Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC).  Wall Street estimates out of First Call put expectations at $0.19 EPS and $8.54 Billion.  Intel shares are up more than 1% ahead of eranings, and anything above $26.04 on the day is an 18-month high.

The average buy target from Wall Street is north of $27.50.  Options activity and influence will depend on the news, but Intel shares are nestled right in between strike prices with options expiring this Friday.  In theory, that could cause either the $27.50 or $25.00 strike prices to act as a magnet with those being the nearest strike prices.  Options trading in Intel could be a huge run of volume and it won’t be surprising at all if Intel trades more than 100 million shares tomorrow.  With shares at 18-month highs, any additional strength should be considered a further break-out pattern by technicians.

Even a somewhat tepid outlook with hopes of more from Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) last night isn’t managing to put an end to tech stocks and their subsequent rally we have seen.  There is quite a bit of hope ahead of the keystone industry event Semicon West in San Francisco.  There are hopes that Novellus will get some upward revisions based on other sectors in chip-land, and those hopes are what is keeping the chip-equipment sector up today.

Even the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE:SMH) are trading up more than 1% on the day ahead of Intel’s earnings.  Intel usually offers guidance, so here is the important data: Q3 $0.27 EPS and revenues $9.36 Billion; Fiscal DEC-2007 $1.08 EPS and $37 Billion in revenues.  Intel’s rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) reports earnings Thursday, and you can bet that the action in Intel will have some impact on the perception of AMD.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

This Week’s Top Active Stock News Stories (June 22, 2007)

Stock Tickers: WB, GE, SMH, TYC, BRK/A, BX, SBUX, KFT, SIRI, XMSR, CAKE, BAM

Most stories come out, affect a stock or a sector, and then cease to matter.  We have numerous stories that started this week, but should be kept up for an active review because many of these will matter in the week or weeks ahead.

If you can believe it, Wachovia (WB) hit a new 52-week low today.  Where did that come from???? Speaking of, many of these ethanol stocks got a boost Friday because of a bill, but some of these were choking on year lows just two days ago.  General Electric (GE) was hitting a new multi-year high this week, as did the chip stock ETF called the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH); neither high held for the week, but these will both be areas to watch.

Tyco International (TYC) will still spit up as of the end of June and start trading for real rather than when-issued on July 2.  At this point, we aren’t all that impressed with the valuation hopes.

Poor Warren Buffett.  He’s the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ and the third richest man, with a great track record.  Yet short sellers are betting more gainst his positions and Jim Cramer gave a breakdown with his own opinion on 10 Buffett picks and then 10 more picks that are current Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) holdings.

 

Jim Cramer did something unique this week, and it wasn’t Eddie Lampert praise.  He endorsed the exceptionally performing Brookfield Asset Management (BAM-NYSE) as "The Next Berkshire Hathaway, but on more of an international and infrastructure basis."  Now I can personally vouch that this company is a beast and a great company, but it doesn’t matter what I have to say.  If that wasn’t just put on more long-term radars for traders to buy on weakness, then it would mean something went very wrong….

If you ask me, I don’t think it is ‘fair or balanced’ but the media is going after the Apple (AAPL-NASDAQ) iPhone.  Yep, the tide of hype and over-coverage has started creating a tough coverage and negative bias.  The stock should get a ’sell the event’ right before and after the iPhone launches next Friday, but it doesn’t seem like Steve Jobs has created the first dud for the company.  The media is trying to pawn it that way though. "None Dare Call It Conspiracy."

General Electric (GE-NYSE) is forking over $1 Million for a TV interview with Paris Hilton when she gets out of jail.  She should have to donate that money to MADD or to Tramps Anyonymous.  This is rewarding for bad behavior.

Blackstone (BX-NYSE) made it public, despite all the media gossip against the private equity behemoth.  They are now a force to be reckoned with, or ‘wreck-ened’ by if you get in their way.  Like you didn’t know that.  They even closed up at $35.06, above the $31.00 pricing.  KKR and Carlyle are said to be filing any day now.

Starbucks (SBUX-NASDAQ) on skid row.  It isn’t the coffee, it isn’t the merchandise.  It’s the point of their growth cycle versus the earnings multiple people will pay for it.

Kraft (KFT-NYSE) may have been be on its own for a few weeks now, but activist investor Nelson Peltz has taken a decent stake in the company.  You can be sure he’s going to be rattling the cages over there to drive shareholder value for the next year.  They don’t have to like him, but they’ll make money if they follow him! This one’s going to be live news for some time.

SIRIUS (SIRI-NASDAQ) and XM Satellite (XMSR-NASDAQ) are cranking up their efforts to get merger support.  It can’t be an accident that both shares were up close to 6% on Friday when the market was in the tubes.  Stay tuned.

We came up with a plan for Cheesecake factory (CAKE-NASDAQ) to fix what it got downgraded over this week.  We didn’t really call it a personal buyout pick, although that could be possible if the stock gets too much weaker after a thrashing Thursday.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

NYSE June 2007 Short Interest: Semiconductor Stocks (NSM, SMH, AMD, MU, TXN)

Stock Tickers: AMD, TXN, LSI, MU, NSM, CY, IFX, ADI, STM, TSM, SMH

The Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH) pretty much says it all, as the SMH short interest rose again in June as the ETF hit a new 52-week high.  Short interest rose from May’s 33.25 million shares up to 35.2 million shares in June; and that is after a rise from 23.76 million shares in April up to a 33.252 million shares in May.  Here are the following changes with the increases in short interest first (from May to June, 2007):

RISING SHORT INTEREST NAMES
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its short interest rise from 73.3 million shares to 73.79 million shares (14.1% of the float). Micron Technology (MU) saw its short interest rise quite a bit from 36.47 million shares up to 50.375 million shares (7.1% of the float).  National Semiconductor (NSM) saw its short interest skyrocket from 9.813 million shares to an unbelievable 52.9 million shares (broker hybrid security is probably cause).  This should be confirmed because that is almost hard to believe as it would be 17% of the float, but that is at multiple sources.  Cypress Semiconductor (CY) saw its short interest rise from 13.89 million shares to 15.495 million.  Infineon (IFX) saw its short interest rise from 2.688 million shares to 3.89 million. Analog Devices (ADI) saw its short interest rise from 6.127 million shares to 7.77 million shares.  Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) saw its short interest rise from 11.33 million shares to 13.73 million shares.

A FEW FALLING SHORT INTEREST NAMES
LSI Corp. (LSI) saw its short interest drop from 44.55 million shares to 43.77 million shares.  STMicroelectronics (STM) saw its short interest fall again from 5.946 million shares to 3.7 million.  Texas Instruments (TXN) saw its short interest drop from 32.41 million shares to 30.6 million.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

New 52-Week High: Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH, INTC, AMD, TXN, AMAT)

Stock Tickers: SMH, INTC, AMD, TXN, AMAT

Investors are probably thinking about the old "Sell in May and Go Away" mantra, particularly in tech stocks, with a different mindset than in other years.  Amazingly enough, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) are actually on a new 52-week high.  The truth is that an Intel (INTC) upgrade last week probably brought on more attention making Intel the top performing DJIA component last week.  This week’s report out of DRAMeXchange showed that anti-smuggling efforts out of China were leading to more spot-market buying of DRAm chips.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs top 3 holdings are Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Applied Materials (AMAT) and they make up more than 50% of the weighting out of the ETF’s 20-ish positions.

The prior high for the last year was $38.56, and shares are up 2.4% at $38.70 today. Not all chip stocks are on highs new highs:
Intel (INTC) $24.17, (+$0.23); previous year high $24.45.
AMD (AMD) $14.39 (+$0.75); previous high, so high holders don’t want to know.
Applied Materials (AMAT) $20.21 (+$0.58); previous year high $20.78.
Texas Instruments (TXN) $37.43 (+$0.68); previous year high $38.41.

Jon C. Ogg
June 21, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.

May Short Interest Rose in Chip Stocks (AMD, TXN, LSI, MU, NSM, CY, IFX, ADI, STM, TSM, SMH)

Stock Tickers: AMD, TXN, LSI, MU, NSM, CY, IFX, ADI, STM, TSM, SMH

The Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH) pretty much says it all, although many of the components in that are NASDAQ listed instead of NYSE.  SMH short interest rose from 23.76 million shares in April up to a 33.252 million shares in May.  Here are the following changes with the increases in short interest first (from April to May, 2007):

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its short interest rise from 45.2 million shares to 73.3 million shares.

Texas Instruments (TXN) saw its short interest rise from 30.76 million shares to 32.41 million shares.

LSI Corp. (LSI) saw its short interest rise from 38.36 million shares to 44.55 million shares.

Micron Technology (MU) saw its short interest rise from 33.14 million shares to 36.47 million shares.

National Semiconductor (NSM) saw its short interest rise from 8.43 million shares to 9.813 million shares.

Cypress Semiconductor (CY) saw its short interest rise from 13.02 million shares to 13.89 million shares.

Infineon (IFX) saw its short interest drop from 3.055 million shares to 2.688 million shares.

Analog Devices (ADI) saw its short interest fall from 6.9 million shares down to 6.127 million shares.

STMicroelectronics (STM) saw its short interest fall from 7.3 million shares to 5.946 million shares.

Taiwan SemiConductor (TSM) saw its short interest drop from 11.75 million shares fell to 11.33 million shares.

Jon C. Ogg
May 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.