The Seattle-based biotech announced sequential revenue growth for the fourth quarter ended December 31 of approximately 25% to $82 million, above the consensus estimate of $72 million. For full-year 2011, Dendreon said sales of Provenge (sipuleucel-T) would total approximately $228 million. Gold credited an improved Provenge reimbursement landscape and ongoing physician education initiatives for the stronger results.

Investors were initially bullish on the growth prospects  of the vaccine, which was approved in April 2010 for the treatment of advanced (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer. And with good reason: The first therapy in the U.S. designed to induce the body’s own immune system to attack prostatic tumor cells, Provenge’s side-effects are less toxic than traditional chemo-based treatments for advanced prostate cancer, such as Sanofi’s (NYSE: SNY) taxotere (docetaxel). And, unlike the plethora of drugs in the treatment paradigm for metastatic, castrate-resistant (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer, such as AstraZeneca’s (NYSE: AZN) Zoladex or Abbott’s (NYSE: ABT) wildly popular Lupron injection, Provenge does not focus on reducing testosterone levels, the male hormone fueling growth of tumor cells.

From a high of $42 a share in April 2011, the stock price tumbled more than 80% last fall after the company withdrew prior guidance of $400 million in annual sales, the result of prolonged delays in federal and private insurance reimbursements.

“It’s not what we don’t know that hurts us, it’s what we know for certain that just ain’t so.” ~ American author and humorist Mark Twain

Analysts attribute the dramatic spike in Dendreon’s stock price to the positive shift in insurance coverage — including a reduction in average time to payment of less than 30 days for providers. “We believe that this progress may help clear some of the fog surrounding the Provenge sales trajectory,” said Joseph Pantginis, Roth Capital Partners.

An oft-repeated tragicomedy that befalls investors is how the unabashed certitudes of Wall St. dissemblers result in trading losses for those of us who pile into stocks after the “good” news is out. Not to pick on Pantginis exclusively, but improving trends in reimbursement for Provenge is old news: In a 10Q Detective column posted last November, I noted that CEO Gold had previously mentioned that average (insurance) reimbursement times had fallen from “90 days down to 30 days.”

Though I do not doubt prescription uptake of Provenge by urologists and oncologists is trending higher (read my bullish article, posted on November 17, 2011: Dendreon Buyout, How Imminent?), more likely, the breathtaking climb in Dendreon’s share price was unintentionally engineered by short-sellers closing out open positions. According to NASDAQ, short interest in Dendreon common stock was 31.3 million (as of December 15), about 21% of the stock’s float.

Further exacerbating a combustible trading environment, days to cover had jumped to seven, from 3.9 the month prior.

Need more convincing evidence that Dendreon’s stock price overreacted to acknowledged “modest” growth expectations? On Thursday, January 5, approximately 44.9 million shares changed hands, a 700% increase over its 65-day average volume.

Looking to go long Dendreon stock? Free advice — stand clear, at least for now.

David Phillips

Related Posts:

Dendreon – Not Running Out of Cash

Dendreon Buyout, How Imminent?

AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE: AZN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) Reiterated Buy with $46 price target at Argus.
Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (NYSE: CEG) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Consolidated Edison Inc. (NYSE: ED) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Reiterated Buy with $40 price target at Argus.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) downgraded to Hold at Benchmark; Raised targets at boutique firm Global Equities Research.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Maintained Underperform and cut estimates at Needham.
Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse (full summary).
Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) Raised to Buy at Janney Capital Markets.
ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) named as the Bear of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas.
Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Trinity Industries, Inc. (NYSE: TRN) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Started as Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VWM) Started as Buy at Stern Agee.

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JON C. OGG

Barron’s listed  Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Metlife, Inc. (NYSE: MET), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG).  The list also includes some ADRs via Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Vodafone Group PLC (NYSE: VOD), Sanofi (NYSE: SNY), and Daimler (DDAIF).

The aim was companies with low P/E ratios, somewhat high dividends, and companies with an expected upside of potentially 15% to 20%.  This won’t excite many investors.  Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was not in the list nor was Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).  Neither pays a dividend, but both have relatively low P/E ratios considering the recent growth (14 for Apple and about 17 for Google).  If you use the Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target, Apple has 29% upside and Google has 16% upside.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is interesting now that it has added International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) to its portfolio.  IBM yields a low 1.5% today and is buying back stock despite trading at all-times highs.  The company’s goal is $20.00 in earnings per share by 2015.  Intel just warned about a large revenue shortfall but its dividend yield is now about 3.5%.

Comcast Corporation (NYSE: CMCSA) is actually still interesting because of its growth and value and because it is changing its mix to include content.  The 2% yield is one which has room for further dividend growth and the cable giant’s share price actually offers almost 30% to the Thomson Reuters consensus price target.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) and Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) are both very opportunistic calls.  Hard disk drive troubles around the globe, a prior discount to highs, and a dividend north of 4% helped Seagate.  Freeport-McMorRan is an opportunistic call now that global growth has brought down shares of metals companies drastically.  It has a 2.5% yield, which is not bad for a metals company, and at $39.00 the Thomson Reuters consensus price target is actually 30% higher than the current share price.

Perhaps the ADRs and European plays of Daimler (DDAIF), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) and Vodafone Group PLC (NYSE: VOD) are opportunistic around the weakness of Europe today.  After all, if the Euro Zone continues its downward trajectory and with the Euro currency at an 11-month low it would seem that the article could blame a worsening effect if these positions do not work out.

24/7 Wall St. has recently announced a couple of key lists with predictions and expected upside.  Our DJIA Stocks Soon To Raise Dividends has already seen some come to fruition even sooner than expected, and we have released to our free email subscribers the 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio.

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Barron’s noted a 6.9% drop so far in 2011 for its Favorite Stocks for 2011 versus a 1.9% drop in the S&P 500 Index.

JON C. OGG

M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is 5.38+ million shares, UP ONLY A TAD from the 5.363 million last quarter but this one had been cut in prior quarters.
Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) was 405,000 shares valued at $128.45 million.  The position is the SAME AS last quarter but still almost double from the quarter before.
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) was 28.4 million; SAME AS last quarter but way down from prior quarters and years.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was 76.7 million shares and listed as THE SAME as last quarter but lower than the 96.3 million shares in prior quarters.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was 4.06 million shares; SAME AS before.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) was more than 4.2 million, a LARGER POSITION than the 2.82 million shares last quarter.
US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) was roughly 69 million shares; SAME AS before.
USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) was 17.072 million shares; SAME AS before.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) was 1.429 million shares; SAME AS before.
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSK) was ALMOST DOUBLE in shares at 4.202 million worth $146.1 million versus the 2,101,125 shares a quarter before when it had been started as a new position.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is a NEW POSITION of 2.291 million shares worth $96.44 million.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was just over 39 million shares; SAME AS before after having been raised in 2010.
Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) was over 1.72 million shares; SAME AS before and Buffett kept his word so far about holding the Washington Post shares despite stepping down from its board.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) over 361 million shares a HIGHER POSITION than the 352+ million last quarter.

PAGE ONE…BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to K’

As noted earlier… today’s holding disclosure has missing data as Berkshire Hathaway was given permission and likely still does not include the full holdings: Confidential information has been omitted from the Form 13F and filed separately with the Commission.

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Lilly’s Zyprexa lost patent protection in Europe just last month, and European sales in the quarter fell by -3%. Two other Lilly drugs, anti-depressant Cymbalta and osteoporosis drug Evista lose patent protection by 2014. Regarding the loss of protection on Zyprexa in the US, the company said that it “expects the introduction of generics to result in a rapid and severe decline in Zyprexa sales.”

For the first three quarters of 2011, Zyprexa has accounted for $3.9 billion in Lilly’s sales. Cymbalta brought in another $3 billion, up 19% over 2010 Cymbalta sales.

The company also noted the impact of the Affordable Care Act, which it says reduced EPS in the third quarter by -$0.13. Lilly said the ACA has lowered revenue by $330 million as a result of higher rebates and subsidies, and added $135 million in expenses related to mandatory manufacturing fees.

Lilly now expects full-year 2011 adjusted EPS to be $4.30-$4.35, up to -9% lower than 2010 EPS of $4.74. The revised guidance is in-line with the existing consensus EPS estimate from analysts of $4.33. The company’s gross margin guidance was unchanged, with an expected decline of 2%-3%.

Lilly’s position at the edge of the patent cliff is perhaps more frightening than that of its major competitors. The company does not have a product to replace any of those that are losing patent protection, and so far its only answer has been to announce a $1 billion cost-cutting plan that will eventually cost 5,500 jobs.

Shares in Lilly are down about -0.7% in the first hour of trading this morning, at $38.43, in a 52-week range of $33.46-$39.78. For the past 12 months, Lilly’s shares have risen 6.8%, about the same as Pfizer’s gain, but far behind Bristol-Meyers’ gain of 21%.

Paul Ausick

United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) will buy Goodrich (NYSE: GR) for $16.5 billion. (Reuters)

China’s PMI for September was weak. (Reuters)

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) may fire its CEO and replace him with Meg Whitman. (WSJ)

Greece made further, deeper cuts to its expenses to win bailout money. (Reuters)

Tim Geithner will present more detail on the government’s plans to revive the economy. (Reuters)

Eric Schmidt said Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has not altered its search results to help its own products. (Reuters)

Roubini says the EU crisis could cause Great Depression II. (Reuters)

Long-term bonds rose on news of Federal Reserve purchases. (Reuters)

Hulu now has over one million paid subscribers. (Reuters)

Moody’s said some U.S. companies with weak balance sheets are unlikely to default. (WSJ)

As more companies create  business which rely on Facebook, the site’s users push back. (WSJ)

Efforts to refinance homes may help the economy slightly. (WSJ)

Greece will put a higher tax on pensions. (WSJ)

S&P cuts its rating of several Italian banks. (WSJ)

Fosters was bought by SABMiller for $10 billion. (WSJ)

Bridgestone will increase the size of one of its U.S. plants. (WSJ)

The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) expects a drop in revenue and a slide in online sales. (WSJ)

Chrysler and the UAW failed to close a labor deal. (WSJ)

The FDA is under pressure to put more warnings on the Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) heart-rhythm drug Multaq. (WSJ)

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS) said it will stay in the refining business. (WSJ)

Moody’s downgraded Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C). (WSJ)

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) appointed a new CTO. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) was 405,000 shares, ALMOST DOUBLE from the 216,000 shares last quarter as a prior new position.  Now valued at $122 million.
M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is 5.363 million, SAME AS before but had been cut in prior quarters.
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) was 28.4 million; SAME AS last quarter but this is down from prior reports as Moody’s is slowly getting cut.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was 76.7 million shares; SAME AS last quarter but lower than the 96.3 million shares in prior quarters.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was 4.06 million shares; SAME AS before.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) was 2.82 million shares; SAME AS before.
US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) was roughly 69 million shares; SAME AS before.
USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) was 17.072 million shares; SAME AS before.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) was 1.429 million shares; SAME AS before.
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSK) was 2,101,125 shares, a NEW POSITION listed as $72.7 million as of June 30.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was just over 39 million shares; SAME AS before after having been raised in 2010.
Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) was over 1.72 million shares; SAME AS before and Buffett kept his word so far about holding the Washington Post shares despite stepping down from its board.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was over 368.6 million; this one GREW AGAIN from the 358.9 million shares at March 31, 2011; was listed as over 342 Million shares one quarter earlier and over 336.4 million two quarters before that.

PAGE ONE…BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to L’

As noted earlier… today’s holding disclosure has missing data as Berkshire Hathaway was given permission and likely still does not include the full holdings: Confidential information has been omitted from the Form 13F and filed separately with the Commission.  

Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) was not listed but that is because it was acquired by Berkshire.

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JON C. OGG

The FDA has already given Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) a very tough time over the company’s application to sell its popular Lipitor-competitor Mevacor. Lipitor and Mevacor, both in the family of drugs known as statins, probably should not be as easy to push through the OTC approval process as a stomach-acid drug like Prilosec from AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE: AZN). A third statin drug, Plavix, which is sold by Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY) and Bristol-Meyers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY), loses its patent protection next year and could be yet another entry into the race for an over the counter heart medicine.

The list of patent expirations through 2012 includes Zyprexa, an anti-psychotic made by Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY); Levaquin, an antibiotic, and Concerta, an ADHD/ADD drug, both from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ); Protonix, an antacid from Pfizer; Seroquel, an antipsychotic from AstraZeneca; Singulair, an asthma drug from Merck; Actos, a drug to treat Type 2 diabetes from Takeda Pharmaceuticals; and Enbrel, an arthritis drug from Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN). Plavix and Lipitor were the two leading drugs by sales in 2010, with more than $6.1 billion and $5.3 billion in sales, respectively.

According to the National Institutes of Health, Lipitor users need to be aware of any number of side issues and side effects when taking a the drug. Because the medicine essentially thins a person’s blood to prevent the buildup of cholesterol along the walls of blood vessels, the danger of improper dosage is non-trivial.

What Pfizer needs to do is convince the FDA that it is safe for a patient to self-prescribe Lipitor. Merck hasn’t been convincing and unless Pfizer can pull some magic rabbit out of its hat, there doesn’t appear to be much chance of getting FDA approval.

Merck has failed to get its statin drug approved, Pfizer is likely to fail, and the team of Sanofi-Bristol Meyers is equally likely to fail with Plavix. A generic equivalent of Plavix is already sold in Europe and if approved in the US, could undercut plans for Sanofi to introduce a generic equivalent.

Of the drugs losing patent protection in the next year or so, the antibiotic Levaquin and the antacid Protonix are the likeliest candidates for OTC sales. Antipsychotics over-the-counter? Not in this lifetime.

Paul Ausick

Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is a brand new position, but a small one at 216,000 shares worth about $54.3 million as of March 31.
M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) is 5.363 million, SAME AS BEFORE after having been previously cut.
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) is the same 28.4 million as last quarter, but this is down from prior reports as Moody’s is slowly getting cut.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) had been lowered in a prior period but that has been flat now for two quarters; position is now 76.7 million shares versus 96.3 million shares in prior quarters.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) is SAME AS BEFORE at just over 4,06 million shares.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) is SAME AS BEFORE at roughly 2.82 million shares.
US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) is the SAME AS BEFORE at roughly 69 million shares.
USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) SAME AS BEFORE at 17.072 million shares.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) SAME AS BEFORE at 1.429 million shares.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) SAME AS BEFORE at just over 39 million shares after having been raised before in 2010.
Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) SAME AS BEFORE at over 1.72 million shares.  Buffett kept his word so far about holding the Washington Post shares despite stepping down from its board.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) grew yet again, but we already knew this after the earnings report.  This was listed as more than 358.9 million shares at March 31, 2011.  Wells Fargo was listed as over 342 Million shares one quarter earlier and over 336.4 million two quarters ago. 
Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) is the same at about 5.7 million shares but it doesn’t really matter as Buffett and Berkshire are trying to acquire the rest of the company.

PAGE ONE…BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to L’

Again, today’s holding disclosure feels like a lot is missing as Berkshire Hathaway was given permission to not disclose certain positions (most likely Combs’s new picks).  The public equities list are $53.6 billion (plus change) versus the $61.8 billion noted above.  The Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) position is the only new position that we are allowed to see and it is too small to be a significant position.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private  placements.

JON C. OGG

AmerisourceBergen Corp. (NYSE: ABC) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $50 at Argus.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $94 at Credit Suisse.
Central European Distribution Corp. (NASDAQ: CEDC) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse; Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Reiterated Strong Buy as Value at Zacks.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
Foster Wheeler AG (NASDAQ: FWLT) Reiterated Buy at Gabelli.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Started as Buy at UBS.
J.P.Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Started as Buy at UBS.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) Maintained Outperform at Credit Suisse; Maintained Buy at Gabelli.
Legg Mason Inc. (NYSE: LM) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
MetroPCS Communications Inc. (NYSE: PCS) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $22 at Argus.
Mylan, Inc. (NYSE: MYL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) Cautious as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated (NYSE: RBA) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: SNDA) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (lathe Tuesday).
SIRIUS XM Radio inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) Maintained Buy with private market value of $2.85 at Gabelli.
SurModics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRDX) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; Raised to Buy at Needham.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG