"Future, Or Fracture?"

Last year was the year that alternative energy  was  set to take the world over.  High energy prices and election promises made green energy look like it had unlimited growth.  Then came the massive drop in energy prices. Then came the recession. Then came the lack of credit.  Combine all that with lower stock valuations and this is looking like solar companies will get hit with a wave of rolling blackouts.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) gave us the impression that what we are setting up for is the third wave of negatives for the sector.  What we saw out of JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) only adds fuel to that fire.   SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWRA) and GT Solar International Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) are both up since their earnings, but these might not be representative of the whole group. Investors’ negative bias toward te will effect  earnings expectations for Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP) next week and  First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) the following week.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) has not been a leading  solar player in the past, but its comments illustrates the problems facing the industry. It seems far more cautious than many solar energy companies.   Applied Materials reported earnings this week and predicted that sales would not improve in the near-term. Problems are gaining in its solar operations.  While Applied sees a lot of growth opportunities, it has slowed its investment there due to lack of orders.  There was a year-over-year gain in the solar sector, but we heard a level of the solar equipment business currently being down as much as 50% in its crystalline-silicon solar sector.

Solar companies elsewhere probably do not give a hoot what Applied Materials loses or makes.  They probably don’t care about the profitability or lack there of at its solar operations either.  Not yet.  But along with factory closures, Applied said that it really doesn’t expect new contract orders in solar equipment for the next few quarters. It even gave the possibility that new solar orders might not be seen until 2010.

Shares of JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) are taking a beating after cutting its forecast last night.  It now sees 2009 revenue of $830 to $952 million, under analyst estimates of $993.8 million.  The commpany is not as cautious as Applied Materials, but its stock has also been more beaten up.  The company already cut its revenue projections by more than 20% in November.  JA Solar’s target for total production output is now 500 megawatts to 550 megawatts. The company’s “nameplate production capacity” is now expected to be 875MW by the end of 2009.  Shares are down “only” 8% on this because shares are down almost 90% from last year’s highs of $27.00.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) is on the move.  It gave a positive earnings report at the end of January which pushed up the shares.  Its fourth-quarter and full-year results were above estimates, but it did lower expectations for 2009 to $1.40 to $1.90.  This was well under a prior estimate of around $3.00 but was given the “good enough for me” reception by traders looking for some growth and some value.

GT Solar International Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) also had earnings that were “good enough.”  It provides equipment and technology for the solar-power industry, and last week reported net income of $43.1 million or $0.30 EPS on revenue of $205.2 million.  These were huge percentage gains and earnings were above estimates. However, the company lowered sales and earnings guidance under estimates.  There have been some customers hurt by the credit and market malaise, but GT Solar  still sees growth.  Because of low valuations, the stock is up more than 35% since earnings.  It is simultaneously off well over 50% from its IPO last summer.

Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is on deck with earnings next Friday.  The company raised its 2008 targets at the end of January, but said it sees impairment charges on investments.  The good news is that shares are up close to 10% since its January 23 guidance.  It also also suspended hiring 2,000 workers. This is in addition to already announced 800 workers.

What does that say for expectations in 2009?  Analysts are looking for an earnings decline on a slight revenue increase.  Those estimates have been rocked sharply lower over the last 90 days, and we are not sure that traders are going to take it too well if the company posts the losses expected as -$0.25 EPS for Q4-2008 and an expected -$0.02 for Q1-2009.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is one of the Holy Grail companies in the sector.  It is set to report earnings on February 24. Shares are currently around $140.00, well off of the $300+ highs.  But the stock is also up more than 60% from the lows just over $85.00 in November.  We have seen too many cracks in numbers elsewhere to agree with the long-term guidance or the analyst estimates.  The December 2008 quarter estimates of $1.30 EPS were $1.32 3-months ago.  The fiscal December-2009 estimates are $7.03 and that was $7.38 about 90 days ago.  Analysts have revenue estimates for last year at $1.22 billion and $1.99 billion for 2009.  Does more than 50% revenue growth and nearly 75% earnings growth sound overly optimistic?  It is possible, but there seems to be more risk of “errors to the downside” than positive surprises.

Right now there is a crack in the solar sector.  Shares have already been punished.  And punished hard.  But we are also seeing a run here on what is not good news, and in some cases, the stocks have been unfairly punished.

So we are very cautious on the sector. Guidance which may still be too aggressive.  Obama’s plans mayoffer some support if things start to get too bad.  The sector can’t implode.  But the two largest problems are lack of financing for many new projects and the notion that green energy projects are not at all competitive with energy prices anywhere around the current levels.

The ETF for the solar sector is the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE: TAN) and it shows all of the sector woes in one spot.  This ETF volume has started drying up, and at $7.17 you can probably guess that it has been a dismal performer.  Its 52-week trading range is $5.40 to $30.79.  The sector will again have a day in the sun.  But the economy and credit markets need to be better, and ultimately it really does look like lower energy prices take away many of the ambitions of alternative energy.

Jon C. Ogg
February 12, 2009

A cloudy forecast, however, is more likely to affect Energy Conversion’s share price today. The company’s guidance for its third quarter, ending March 31st, is for revenue of $95 million to $110 million with consolidated gross margins of about 35%. For its full 2009 fiscal year, Energy Conversion expects total revenue of $395 million to $440 million. This outlook is far below guidance issued in August of $455 million to $485 million. The company’s president and CEO blames the “global economic downturn,” and points out that Energy Conversion’s risk factors include the availability of credit for its customers, many of which are builders of commercial and industrial buildings. That’s certainly reason to be concerned. In 2008, just one customer accounted for 23% of Energy Conversion’s sales.

The company’s shares are of 69% from the 52-week high of $83.33 reached this past summer.  It appears that there is no danger of topping that number anytime soon.

Paul Ausick
February 9, 2009

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) was rated overweight.  Solarfun Power (SOLF) was started as underweight.  China Sunergy (CSUN), LDK Solar (LDK), ReneSola (SOL), and Trina Solar (TSL) were all started as equal weight.

Jon C. Ogg

February 9, 2009

General Electric (NYSE:GE) announced orders for 20 Jenbacher Gen-Sets, 4 LMS 100 Gas Turbines for Latin American power companies, and 333 wind turbines in two U.S. states.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited (NYSE: YGE) priced its offering of US$150,000,000 zero coupon convertible senior notes due 2012 and the pricing of a concurrent offering of 5,600,000 American depositary shares by certain shareholders of the Company.

Amtech Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASYS) received a $3.9 million follow-on solar order for diffusion processing systems from an existing solar cell customer based in Taiwan.

Yesterday, Gulf Ethanol (OTC: GFET) signed definitive agreements to acquire its new cellulose feed-stock processing technology for ethanol plants.

Just yesterday, Lazard Capital Markets reiterated its SELL rating on LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) despite it being up large on a questionable supply order.

Active Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACPW) announced yesterday that the S.E.C. has completed its investigation into the company’s past stock option granting practices and is not recommending any enforcement action.

Yesterday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) invested in a $200 million staged solar project fund in Recurrent Energy to provide financing for $100mm of Recurrent Energy’s solar electric power projects in 2008 and an additional $100mm in 2009.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

UPS (NYSE:UPS) is adding 306 alternative fuel vehicles to its “green fleet” by placing an order for 167 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) delivery trucks while taking delivery of 139 new propane delivery trucks in North America. Additionally, the company has launched an initiative to use biodiesel fuel in its ground support vehicles at the UPS Worldport® air hub in Louisville.  Maybe BROWN really can be GREEN.

LDK Solar’s (NYSE:LDK) woes in China over its reporting on inventories continues…..down another 25% today. Lazard Capital Markets’ Sanjay Shrestha lowered his price target on Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ:ENER) from $44.00 down to $40.00 (current was $26.50); and increased his Buy rating target on Otron (NASDAQ:ITRI) from $95 to $115, and reiterated the Buy rating and $37 target on Comverge (NASDAQ:COMV).

FROST & SULLIVAN: "Hydrogen Economy: Hype or Potential Reality?"

Late last week, Beacon Power Corporation (NASDAQ: BCON) was notified bythe U.S. Department of Energy that the Company was one of sixteenselected from 143 company applications to submit a full application fora DOE program that would provide loan guarantees to commercial lendersfor up to 80% of the project debt needed to finance the construction ofits first 20-megawatt flywheel frequency regulation plant.

• Last Week’s "The Business Day in Global Warming"
• T. Boone Pickens oil magnate still bullish;
• Goldman Sachs September Energy Super-Spike raised $135/barrel and $4.50/gallon.

If you wish to set an RSS feed to our daily "The Business Day in GlobalWarming" and other news we cover from time to time in alternativeenergy, you can set it the following URL:
http://www.247wallst.com/alternative_energy/index.html

As a reminder, whether you prefer the term "Global Warming" or "ClimateChange" is not the issue as far as 24/7 Wall St. covers it. Greenbusiness has become big business, and this affects many publiccompanies today. 

Jon C. Ogg
October 8, 2007

SatCon Technology Corporation® (NASDAQ: SATC) announced that it has been awarded a $2 million contract by the Air Force Research Laboratory to develop the complete electric power conversion package for a hybrid electric vehicle for special operations applications.

ECOtality, Inc. (OTCBB: ETLY) has completed the acquisition of InnergyPower Corporation. Innergy Power is a leader in the design andmanufacture of thin sealed rechargeable lead batteries and high qualityflat-panel multi-crystalline solar modules.

Babcock & Brown and BP Alternative Energy, part of BP plc (NYSE:BP)announced that Colorado Governor Bill Ritter today dedicated the CedarCreek wind farm. When fully operational, the 300 megawatt (MW) CedarCreek wind farm will be one of the largest single wind-power facilitiesin the United States.

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ), based in China, signed a contract toprovide solar modules to supply American Capital Energy with solarmodules for an undisclosed financial amount.

Germany has recently boosted the proportion of renewable energy as asource for heat production from 6% to 14% by 2020, although this wasnoted as either known or expected.

Yesterday, Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) was featured in InvestorsBusiness Daily come out with an advance that could lower the cost ofmaking solar panels.

Yesterday, an upgrade from Lazard Capital Markets helpedshares of First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) rally past the $125.00target.  As one of the biggest winners of last quarter, First Solar wasalso a winner from the fund manager window dressing at the end of the quarter.

It is obvious that if you compare today’s and yesterday’s news to lastweek, it looks like many companies were issuing releases last weekaround the Clinton initiatives and around the UN meetings regardingclimate change or global warming.

• Last week the esteemed Ken Heebner talked up energy prices;
• T.Boone Pickens was also recently bullish on energy and on his alternative energy play;
• Goldman Sachs recently hiked its super-spike range for oil to $135/barrel and $4.50/gallon.

Jon Ogg
October 2, 2007

If you wish to set an RSS feed to our daily "The Business Day in Global Warming" and other news we cover from time to time in alternative energy, you can set it the following URL:

http://www.247wallst.com/alternative_energy/index.html

As a reminder, whether you prefer the term "Global Warming" or "ClimateChange" is not the issue as far as 24/7 Wall St. covers it. Greenbusiness has become big business, and this affects many publiccompanies today.   

Magnetek, Inc. (NYSE:MAG) has received orders from United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) for PCS-2C and -2D fuel cell power inverters totaling 2.4 megawatts in a contract valued at approximately $1.3 million scheduled for delivery over the coming 8 months.

FPL Group, Inc. (NYSE:FPL), the Florida Power & Lighting parent, announced today a $2.4 billion investment program aimed at increasing U.S. solar thermal energy output and reducing carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming: up to $1.5 billion in new solar thermal generating facilities; Investment of up to $500 million by FPL to create a smart network that will provide its 4.5 million customers with enhanced energy management capabilities; and a new consumer education program and new products that could increase renewable energy resources by at least $400 million over the first five years of the program.

Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH) becomes a principal sponsor for Georgia Tech Solar Decathlon 2007.  For some reason, it seems they’ll still have bad home sales.

Planet Resource Recovery, Inc. (PINK SHEETS: PRRY) announced today that it has delivered its first shipment of PetroLuxus™ 600 for the treatment of biodiesel that will streamline the production of biodiesel in a cost-effective and time-efficient manner.

Calpine Corporation (Pink Sheets: CPNLQ) received final approval today from the California Energy Commission (CEC) to construct the 600-megawatt Russell City Energy Center in Hayward, Calif.

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) today said it will become the first computer maker to neutralize its greenhouse gas emissions. CEO Michael Dell announced a series of measures to shrink the company’s carbon footprint and offset  its greenhouse gas emissions in 2008.

ING (NYSE:ING) announced today the next phase of its worldwide sustainability commitment by agreeing to
purchase clean, emission-free wind energy credits for its U.S. operations.

• While the United Nations meets, Industry Executives Speak Out onClimate Change and Energy Security in the Latest Issue of World EnergyMagazine
• September 25 Business Day in Global Warming
• Oil Baron T. Boone Pickens bullish on oil and alternative energy
• Goldman Sachs raised super-spike oil price band to $135.00/barrel

Jon C. Ogg
September 26, 2007

As a reminder, whether you prefer the term "Global Warming" or"Climate Change" is not the issue as far as 24/7 Wall St. covers it.Green business has become big business, and this affects many publiccompanies today.

American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) subsidiary Appalachian Power Co. has signed a long-term power purchase agreement for renewable wind energy with Camp Grove Wind Farm LLC, a wind project majority owned by Orion Energy Group LLC.

American Security Resources Corporation (OTCBB:ARSC) subsidiary, American Hydrogen Corporation (“AHC”), has shipped samples of its proprietary ammonia catalytic electrolyzer (ACE) to a European company specializing in catalysts for the fuel cell industry.

Staples’ (NASDAQ:SPLS) is breaking ground as part of a new green building initiative in Miami.

Akeena Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKNS) announced the NASDAQ Stock market hasapproved its application for listing of the company’s common stockunder the symbol “AKNS.”

Power-One, Inc. (Nasdaq:PWER) today announced the introduction of theAurora PVI-Central Series of commercial-grade photovoltaic inverters.These series of products connect to the AC grid and employ subracks ina modular, scalable architecture that facilitates application-optimizedinverter solutions that range from 50kW to 300kW.

Millennium Cell Inc. (NASDAQ:MCEL) announced that the U.S. Departmentof Transportation ("DOT") issued a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM)proposing to permit the transportation in carry-on baggage on passengeraircraft of micro fuel cell systems which utilize sodium borohydridefuels being developed by Millennium Cell to power consumer electronicdevices.

GreatPoint Energy, Inc. (developer of catalytic gasification technologyto convert coal, petroleum coke and biomass into clean natural gaswhile enabling the capture and sequestration of CO2) announced thefinancial closing of a $100 million strategic equity round. The roundwas co-led by Sustainable Development Investments (SDI), a unit of CitiAlternative Investments and Dow Chemical Company, and included the AESCorporation, Suncor Energy, Inc. and several financial firms.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:JNPR), the leader in high-performancenetworking, announced its sponsorship and continued participation inthe Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), which launched its fifth report,CDP5, today in New York City. CDP is a global standardized mechanism bywhich companies report their greenhouse gas emissions to institutionalinvestors; it hosts one of the largest registries of corporategreenhouse gas data in the world at www.cdproject.net.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited (NYSE: YGE) announced thatit will be added to the NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Index (Nasdaq: CLEN) andthe NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Liquid Series Index (Nasdaq: CELS) effectivewith the market open on Monday, September 24, 2007.

If you would like to read our daily pieces on alternative energy and onthe business day’s developments where companies are trying to maketheir difference in green businesses, you can link or set your readersto the following URL:
http://www.247wallst.com/alternative_energy/index.html

Jon C. Ogg
September 24, 2007

As a reminder, whether you prefer the term "Global Warming" or "ClimateChange" is not the issue as far as 24/7 Wall St. covers it.  Greenbusiness has become big business, and this affects many publiccompanies today.

Our friends at TheStreet.com have a great article "A Green Fund for Global-Warming Skeptics."  As we have noted ourselves over and over, whether you believe in "global warming" or "climate change" doesn’t really matter.  Green business is becoming big business.   Allianz RCM Global EcoTrends Fund (AECOX) is a $131 million fund has appeared in the top 10% of stock funds for several months this year.

Thursday, September 20, 2007
Plutonic Power Corporation (TSX:PCC) and GE Energy Financial Services, part of GE (NYSE:GE), executed a fixed-price construction contract with Peter Kiewit Sons Co. for the construction of the 196 MW Toba Montrose run-of-river hydroelectric project.  The signing of the approximately $500 million engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract allows Kiewit to move ahead to the next stages after the initial rejuvenation and construction of forestry roads and bridges to the powerhouse site that had begun in July 2007.

With higher than $80.00 per barrel oil, alternative energy is all forms is highly important.  Many of these initiatives started back in the 1990′s and 2000 when oil was cheaper than water.  T. Boone Pickens is still bullish on oil prices and he’s bullish on his natural gas for autos initiative.  Earlier this week Goldman Sachs unveiled their "Super-Spike" in oil prices with the high-end of that band moving from $100 to $135 per barrel and up to $4.50 per gallon of gas at the pump.

GE Energy Financial Services, a unit of General Electric (NYSE: GE), ishelping renewable energy company Airtricity, Inc. grow in the boomingUS wind energy market and boosting its own portfolio by investing in a126.5-megawatt wind farm under construction in West Texas.  GE isinvesting alongside Airtricity in the $231 million Champion Wind Farmin Roscoe in Mitchell and Nolan counties, 40 miles southwest of Abilene.

The Volvo Group (NASDAQ:VOLV) can now present the first vehicle plantin the world that is completely free from carbon dioxide (CO2), VolvoTrucks’ plant in Ghent, Belgium. The Volvo Group’s efforts pertainingto CO2-free plants are fully in line with EU’s goal for reducingcarbon-dioxide emissions by 20% in Europe by 2020.

Solarfun Power Holdings Co.(NASDAQ: SOLF) announced an update on salesdevelopments, supply agreements, production plans, and progress at theCompany’s Joint Venture company Yangguang Solar:

• Secured three multi-year framework commitments for 185 MW of photovoltaic modules;
• Signed first non-domestic long-term supply agreement for deliveries of polysilicon starting in 2008;
• Secured equipment for cell lines 9-12 and confident full-scale production will begin by mid-2008;
• Received first wafer sample from joint venture wafer company;initial samples met expectations for quality and efficiency, and supplyexpected to increase over remainder of 2007.

There was another key brokerage firm downgradethat occured in ETHANOL stocks yesterday.  As a few of these stocks hit52-week lows it looks like the switch to ethanol not being as great andhelpful as promised is out of the bag.

Fuel Tech, Inc. (Nasdaq: FTEK) announced receipt of a FUEL CHEM®demonstration order by a new electric utility customer in theSouthwestern United States on a Powder River Basin coal-fired boilerwith a generating capability in excess of 500 megawatts. Chemical feedfor the program is scheduled to commence late in the fourth quarter.

Allied Waste Services of San Mateo County, part of Allied Waste(NYSE:AW), provides waste services to 103,000 residential andcommercial customers in 13 communities and announced the conversion ofits entire 225-heavy-duty truck fleet to clean-burning biodiesel fuel.

Major U.S. Companies Explore Risks and Opportunities of Uncertain Energy Future

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (NYSE:PCG) announced a $1.2 millionpartnership with Habitat for Humanity International to install solarelectric systems on every Habitat-built home throughout PG&E’snorthern and central California service territory in 2007.

Wednesday, September 19
Progress Energy (NYSE: PGN) today announced that it has idled production at its majority-owned synthetic fuel facilities.The tax credits associated with synthetic fuel production begin to bephased out if the full-year average price of oil exceeds certainlevels. Oil price projections for the remainder of 2007 make furtherproduction
uneconomical at this time.  They win the"Throwing In The Towel Award" for the week.

Jon C. Ogg
September 21, 2007

Whether you use the term "Global Warming" or "Climate Change" doesn’tmatter.  Green business has become big business.  If not, you wouldn’tbe seeing all of the world’s largest companies making at least someefforts in recycling, remediation, carbon sequestering, and more.

Newly released sales figures from R.L. Polk reveal that an increased number of alternative fuel automobiles were sold in the second quarter of 2007. Between April and June of this year, nearly 490,000 AFA’s were sold nationwide, an increase of 27 percent over the same period last year, bringing the total number of AFAs to nearly 11.5 million on American roads.  For more information about Alternative Fuel Automobiles, visit www.DiscoverAlternatives.com.

AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) today announced plans to begin construction of Buffalo Gap 3, a 170 MW expansion of its Buffalo Gap wind farm near Abilene, Texas. Once completed, the project will increase capacity at Buffalo Gap to 524 MW, making it one of the largest operating wind farms in the United States. Commercial operations are expected to begin mid-2008.

Clean Energy (Nasdaq:CLNE) has entered a five-year agreement to supply the Metropolitan Transit District in Santa Cruz, California with clean-burning liquefied natural gas fuel for its growing fleet of natural gas powered buses. Santa Cruz Metro plans, by mid-2008, to operate 63 CNG buses, including 10 currently in service and by replacing 53 older diesel-fueled buses with new or re-powered natural gas models.

Energy Focus, Inc. (NASDAQ: EFOI),formerly Fiberstars, Inc., a player in energy-efficient lighting technologies has received orders from Wal-Mart for installations of Energy Focus’s EFO(R) downlight system in a Wal-Mart Super Center and a Sam’s Club in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) announced at the HUSUMwind 2007 trade show in Germany that it has received a follow-on order for approximately $20 million in wind turbine electrical systems from Beijing-based Sinovel Wind Corporation Limited. The order follows a $70 million order received from Sinovel Wind in July 2007.

BioSolar Inc. (OTCBB: BSRC) has been rated “Speculative Buy” with a target price of $.84 by Beacon Equity Research Analyst, Victor Sula, PhD.  The full report is available at http://www.BeaconEquityResearch.com, but be advised that reports of this sort often not exactly what they seem.

Jon C. Ogg
September 18, 2007 

As a reminder, whether you prefer the term "Global Warming" or "Climate Change" is not the issue as far as 24/7 Wall St. covers it.  Green business has become big business, and this affects many public companies today.