Banco Santander S.A. (NYSE: STD) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Cut to Market Weight at Wells Fargo.
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ENDP) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) Cut to Underperform at Wells Fargo.
The Kroger Company (NYSE: KR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Patriot Coal Corporation (NYSE: PCX) Cut to Underperform at BMO.
Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU) Raised to Outperform at BMO.
Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.

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JON C. OGG

Applied Signal Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: APSG) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Ariba Inc. (NASDAQ: ARBA) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital.
ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQL: ARMH) Started as Sell at Societe Generale.
Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (NYSE: ATW) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Central European Distribution Corp. (NASDAQ: CEDC) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Cirrus Logic Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Financial Engines, Inc. (NASDAQ: FNGN) Started as Buy at Needham.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Massey Energy Co. (NYSE: MEE) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) Raised to Buy at UBS.
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
Teradyne Inc. (NYSE: TER) Raised to Buy at Citi.

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JON C. OGG

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Maintained Buy but removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) Cut to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late Thursday call).
Jinko Solar (NYSE: JKS) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) Cut to Hold with $10 target at Citigroup.
Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ: NBIX) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
ScanSource Inc. (NASDAQ: SCSC) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Solarfun Power Holdings Co. (NASDAQ: SOLF) Cut to Hold with $13 target at Auriga.
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
ViaSat Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Started as Market Perform at FBR.

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JON C. OGG

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) received an upgrade following a strong earnings report and an increase in its forecast for shipment volumes. That boost propelled shares in China Tech Development Group Corp.(NASDAQ: CTDC), STR Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:  STRI), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. (NYSE: YGE), and LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) to gains of between 4.7% and 8.2% in a single day.

Share price moves in the solar sector have varied widely. Low-cost module makers like JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) and Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) have prospered as crystalline PV costs have fallen. Similarly, wafer makers and thin-film PV module makers have not done as well.  MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA), and Suntech, a thin-film PV maker, are lagging.

Here’s a quick look at three firms that are trading well above their 52-week low, and three firms that are not.

Solarfun’s 52-week trading range is $4.48-$12.30, and it is trading today at around $11.50, up 155% from its 12-month low. Shares are trading today down less than 1%.

JA Solar shares have traded in a 52-week range of $3.57-$7.35, and shares are trading at about $7.10 today, up 98% from the 52-week low. Trina Solar shares are also trading 98% above their 52-week low, at about $27.50. Trina Solar’s 52-week range is $13.92-$31.19.

Among the lower performing stocks, MEMC shares have traded in a 52-week range of $9.19-$19.31. The shares are trading today around $10.75, up 17.5% from their lows.

Suntech shares have traded in a 52-week range of $7.53-$18.78, and trade today at about $9.00, up 19.3% from the 52-week low.

Sunpower shares have traded in a 52-week range of $9.61-$33.97, and are trading today at about $29.50, up 22% from the 52-week low.

Solar shares, as a group are performing well, but some are just performing better. Low-cost manufacturing, a solid order book, and the ability to add capacity, especially for crystalline PV, seem to make the difference between stocks that perform well and those that perform exceptionally well.

Paul Ausick

American Electric Power Co., Inc. (NYSE: AEP) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
BP plc (NYSE: BP) Started at Market Perform at Bernstein; Reiterated Overweight at JPMorgan.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Outperform at Raymond James.
Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) Reiterated Buy at Needham.
The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Emulex Inc. (NYSE: ELX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
First Energy Corp. (NYSE: FE) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) Raised to Buy at Auriga; Cut to Neutral at SunTrust.
MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) Raised to Buy at Soleil.
Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

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JON C. OGG

At the same time, Sharp Corp. (OTC:SHCAY), one of Japan’s largest solar cell makers, Italy’s Enel, and STMicroelectronics N.V. (NYSE:STM) have formed a joint venture called 3Sun to jump into the thin-film solar PV market. This at a time when Chinese thin-film maker Trony Solar withdrew its IPO due to unfavorable market conditions, and semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) was downgraded by UBS from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ following its firing of 500 employees and the decision to eliminate its solar wafer-specific equipment line.

First, the Solarfun deal. Hanwha will buy nearly 36.5 million ordinary shares of Solarfun for about $78 million and about 122 million more shares owned by two companies controlled by Solafun’s chairman, valued at about $290 million. In exchange, Hanwha gets 49.99% of Solarfun, three of seven board seats, and Solarfun’s existing management. The deal puts a value on Solarfun of about $740 million, about $80 million higher than its market cap even with today’s 12% jump in the share price.

With prices for crystalline PV cells falling as efficiencies in photoelectric conversion increases, it’s a bit of stretch to see how Hanwha’s investment will pay off. Solarfun will have to go after the low-margin end of the market and hope to make its profits on volume. That’s never a good place to start from.

Second, the Sharp/Enel/STM joint venture is another head-scratcher. Thin-film solar faces a serious threat from crystalline PV makers as the costs for crystalline PV has come down and conversion efficiencies for crystalline have risen. The JV does include the deep pockets of Sharp, which may be enough for it to succeed. The new company also plans to function as a vertically integrated operation, making the cells at an STM plant in Italy and eventually getting into the independent power producer market, probably starting with Enel in Italy. It’s an ambitious plan, and it could take some time for it to pay off.

Third, the story with Trony Solar, a failed thin-film IPO, is just another chapter in a dismal year so far for renewable energy IPOs. JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE:JKS) and biofuel maker Codexis Inc. (NASDAQ:CDXS) concluded disappointing IPOs, and another solar cell maker, Solyndra, had to withdraw its IPO. Investors have decided that these renewable stocks are just too risky, especially given the slow economic recovery that could reduce government subsidies for renewable energy. Even with subsidies, the timetable for generating a return on investment is very long.

An interesting and entertaining day. So far, Solarfun has set a new 52-week high of $12.30, though it is now trading at around $11 for an 8% gain, near a low for the day, on more than three-times average daily volume before noon.

Paul Ausick

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACOR) is trading higher after its Ampyra MS sales were reflected in its quarterly earnings.  Sales were close to double expectations at $30 million.  Shares are trading up 10% at $36.49 on only about 15,000 shares.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) is weak again after a JPMorgan downgrade yesterday and ahead of earnings after the close today.  Shares are down another 2.5% at $6.99 on over 130,000 shares.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: CTSH) is soaring after beating earnings estimates and raising 2010 guidance.  Shares are up 11.8% at $61.96 on about 200,000 shares.  Mark this as a 52-week high as the prior range was $29.76 to $56.08.

Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) is trading lower after the chemical giant reported Q2 earnings of $0.54 EPS on $13.6 billion in revenue versus estimates from Thomson Reuters of $0.56 EPS and $13.69 billion.  Shares are down 4.7% at $27.00 on over 100,000 shares versus a 52-week range of $19.75 to $32.05.

Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) is trading marginally higher after reports that it has entered into friendly merger negotiations with Sanofi.  Shares are up 1% at $71.10, but on light trading volume.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) beat its earnings expectations this morning and maintained guidance. Shares are now up 3.6% at $16.04 on well over 2.5 million shares.

Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) shares are trading lower by about 3.4% at $59.94 on over 400,000 shares after earnings disappointed the street.  Advertising, slow growth, high promotions, and even private label selling are all chalked up as the culprit.  The 52-week range is $39.37 to $64.58, although that $39-handle is from The Flash Crash and is fake.

Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) is trading higher, although maybe not a smuch as it would sound considering the news. Revenue rose 18% to $258.5M and earnings were $0.59 EPS vs. Thomson Reuters estimates of $212.8 M and $0.25 EPS.  There may be items in the numbers.  The big news is that Hanwa Chemical is paying roughly $10.72 per ADR to buy half of the company.  Shares are trading up 12.6% at $11.55 on over 250,000 shares, a new 52-week high versus a trading range of $4.48 to $10.78.

Sykes Enterprises, Incorporated (NASDAQ: SYKE) is getting crushed this morning after missing earnings estimates and lowering guidance.  Shares are down 32% at $10.35 on over 250,000 shares.  Mark that as a new 52-week low as the prior trading range was $13.48 to $26.91.

Trius Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRX) priced its IPO of 10 million shares at $5.00.  The price is far lower than the prior $12 to $14 price range, but the share count is far higher.  This begins trading today.

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JON C. OGG

iSuppli has data out today showing that PV installations in 2011 will slow somewhat compared to the blistering pace of 2010.  The data noted, “Assuming the U.S. dollar/euro exchange rate remains above $1.20/€, iSuppli predicts crystalline silicon solar cell prices will not increase in 2010 and instead will decline by 5 percent compared to 2010.  Prices for installations in 2011 will fall slightly more, decreasing by approximately 10 percent on average in Europe. Installation prices will decline to compensate for reduced subsidies in the largest markets of Germany, Italy and France.”

There is a lot more to this story.  First, there are some positives for PV-makers and the companies that supply parts and materials around them.  Growth is expected to remain.  Just like the argument over an expansion continuation or a double-dip recession, it is the contraction of the growth that makes it seem so muted.

The other issue at hand is that this still leaves a growth in 2010 and in 2011.  We are now in the second half of 2010 and stock markets try to act as discounting mechanisms that try to factor in the economic trends for six months to twelve months out.  If that is the case, then in just six months or from now the stock market is going to be factoring in significant slowing of growth trends in the sector.

A last issue is the notion of pricing.  With a $1.20/Euro rate holding, iSuppli predicted that crystalline silicon solar cell prices will not increase in 2010 “and instead will decline by 5 percent compared to 2010.  Prices for installations in 2011 will fall slightly more, decreasing by approximately 10 percent on average in Europe.”

Last week we saw First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) beat earnings and raises 2010 guidance from a range of $6.80 to $7.30 EPS to a new range of $7.00 to $7.40 EPS.  Shares fell from over $135.00 down to under $130.00.  The stock now is around $126.50.  The company has what iSuppli feared working against it: subsidy cuts in Europe.  It leads the race in the price to lower and lower costs for utilities and power companies.  That may lead to more market share, but this is a race to see who can keep their operating margins at a rate of decline that is less than the decline in prices.  It claims 18% share or so and has produced over 26 million solar modules.  First Solar said gross margin compressed to 48.3% from over 56%, but it cut approximately $0.05 off of its PV per-Watt module manufacturing cost to about $0.76.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) was also recently downgraded by Jefferies with 2010 acting as a peak earnings year and peak margin year.  Too bad considering a price drop in shares from $90 to $10… ouch.  Its last earnings report failed to enthuse investors and shares are danger-close to 52-week lows.

Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) announced plans last month to increase its cell capacity by 50 MW via more manufacturing capacity while also converting 160 MW of its existing cell lines into high-efficiency selective emitter technology by early 2011.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) was downgraded in the middle of last month over at Jefferies because of its leveraged balance sheet and higher cost structure despite a brand-premium and price-premium.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) recently announced that it would restructure its solar energy division by cutting jobs and effectively closing down unprofitable thin-film solar panel production lines.  What does that tell you on margin expectations elsewhere ahead?

ETF-trading has not offered much solace for Green Investing.  Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE: TAN) is up Monday but the $7.84 price compares to a 52-week trading range of $6.02 to $11.47.  The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is more diversified and up 1.4% at $9.29 its 52-week trading range is $4.00 to $11.95.

Barron’s recently panned First Solar (FSLR) shares, although much of the reasoning behind that was a secular-issue around being a solar company.  Germany, Italy, and Spain have all either cut subsidies or are expected to.  China is a wild card, but the Chinese solar panel makers are going to win there if it is even a financial win situation.

What appears to be happening is the reality that green energy lovers have hoped would come or would get close: pricing parity, and ultimately price discounting.  For solar investors that is not a good thing.  That means that solar modules can be bought cheaply enough that the price for the same watt and megawatt becomes the same cost as conventional energy solutions.  Or cheaper.  Guess what happens to margins for solar panel manufacturers there.  At least power companies, residences, and businesses will be able to get around some at least of the high costs and uncertainties around the pricing of traditional power.

JON C. OGG

Chinese solar stocks have gained 19.7% in the past month. The best performing stocks in the sector are JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., (NYSE: JKS) up 33.5%, JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd., (NASDAQ: JASO) up 24.2%, and Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd., (NASDAQ: SOLF) up 22.5%.

MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships) have gained 7.9% in the past month. The best performing stocks in the sector are Transmontaigne Partners L.P., (NYSE: TLP) up 17.1%, Exterran Partners, L.P., (EXLP) up 16.9%, and DCP Midstream Partners LP, (NYSE: DPM) up 15.2%.

Chile stocks and ADRs have gained 7.5% in the past month. The best performing stocks in the sector are Banco de Chile, (NYSE: BCH) up 16.4%, CorpBanca S.A., (NYSE: BCA) up 16%, and LAN Airlines S.A., (NYSE: LFL) up 14.1%.

Yet, a look into the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE: TAN) yields little great performance and little great hope considering that these stocks mentioned here make up a considerable part of this ETF.  Last Friday, the upper house of the German parliament voted against the solar subsidy cut, but that should merely delay it. First Solar expects demand from the rest of Europe, particularly Italy, to pick up some of the slack, and demand from the US and China to pick up even more.

The conventional view is that the German subsidy cut has pulled demand for solar modules forward into the first half of 2010. Demand is expected to fall in the second half of the year and remain depressed until the second half of 2011.

That may not be the whole story, though. Wafer-maker Suntech has announced that it is adding 1,000 megawatts of new manufacturing capacity at its Shanghai plant over the next three years to keep up with increasing demand. The company’s chairman acknowledged that production is sold out for 2010 and that the company can’t meet demand due to manufacturing constraints. He also noted that Suntech hasn’t “seen any impact from the reduction in German subsidies.”

Suntech expects to build 180 megawatts by the end of this month, bringing the company’s total manufacturing capacity to 1,400 megawatts. The company is having some technical problems with its new higher-efficiency technology, and that could delay the building of proposed new capacity.

Crystalline silicon wafers are as much as twice as efficient as thin-film at converting sunlight to electricity. The declining differential between thin-film modules and crystalline wafer PV modules is threatening First Solar’s price advantage.

Brokerage firm Needham & Company this morning started coverage on First Solar with an ‘under perform’ rating, while giving Suntech a ‘hold’ rating and Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ:SOLF) a ‘buy’ rating. Solarfun is low-cost wafer maker. Needham also cut the price target on SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ:SPWRA) from $20-$26 last month and has now downgraded the shares to ‘hold’.

Research firm Greentech Media Inc. recently released a market research report on the solar industry which notes that “no country has the necessary characteristics to replace Germany as the singular market of last resort.” The firm sees this as a good thing because it breaks the boom/bust cycle that has characterized the solar industry for years. The report also notes that “supporting steady but controlled growth in a larger number of markets provides a platform for global expansion and de-risks exposure to individual incentive programs.”

That seems about right, but it may take a while for the solar players to adapt. And that probably explains why share prices for the solar makers are so volatile.

SunPower shares are down about 7% today. First Solar and Trina shares are off about 3% so far and the others are following along, with Solarfun off the least.  To show just how battered this sector is, look no further than the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE: TAN) ETF that tracks the solar sector.  At $6.28, this ETF has gone from hot to not…. The 52-week range is $6.11 to $11.67, and this hit $30.00 briefly in May 2008.

Paul Ausick