Posts for Ticker ‘SPF’

Looking for Next Homebuilder Merger? (DHI, TOL, NVR, MDC, LEN, KBH, RYL, MTH, HOV, MHO, SPF, XHB, ITB, PKB)

We won’t bother telling you about the homebuilder merger this morning, because we already covered it once.  But in a down and out sector, you will see that traders are looking to see if there will be other mergers in the battered group.  As you will also see, the lower market cap stocks are the ones where traders are guessing as to which will be the next take-out candidate.  Our cut off was a $100 million market cap as of yesterday and every stock in the sector that we track in the U.S. is higher.

DR Horton Inc. (DHI)….. $3.5B; +5.8% at $10.78
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). $3.1B; +4.5% at $18.86
NVR Inc. (NVR)……….. $2.6B; +4% at $6.86
MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC).. $1.5B; +4.5% at $30.95
Lennar Corp. (LEN)……. $1.2B; +11% at $7.98
KB Home (KBH)………… $1.1B; +6% at $14.30
Ryland Group Inc. (RYL).. $728.8M; +6% at $16.80
Meritage Homes Corp(MTH). $401.3M; +7.3% at $12.99
Hovnanian (HOV)………. $125.0M; +11% at $1.72
M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)…. $121.7M; +2.2% at $8.72
Standard Pacific (SPF)… $100.6M; +11% at $1.00

Oddly enough, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) ETF is only up almost 4% at $11.37.  The other ETF, the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (NYSE: ITB) is up 3.5% at $9.25.  This is a slightly different ETF, but the PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construct (NYSE: PKB) is up 1.3% at $9.65 on very thin volume.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: April 8, 2009 – 8:46 am in ETF, Housing, Mergers and Buy Outs, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Early Bird Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (SPF, FPL)

So far there are very few analyst calls seen, but that may be the norm for this week.  Here are today’s early bird analyst callls:

  • Standard Pacific (SPF) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • FPL Group (FPL) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Jon Ogg
December 29, 2008

Posted on: December 29, 2008 – 7:09 am in Analyst Calls, ,

Standard Pacific (SPF): Housing Has Hit Bottom

The case for housing and home building stocks may be this simple. When smart money comes into the industry, the bottom should be near. Unless smart money has an idiot fringe, an outpost of stupidity with a big check book.

Standard Pacific (SPF), one of the home builders on the organ transplant list, got some good news today. The $530 million from MatlinPatterson Global Advisers is a god send. According to Reuters, "The investment was more than three times the company’s market value before the shares jumped on the announcement."

The deal sounds too good to be true for current stockholders. Senior and subordinated debt in the deal both convert above the share price when the deal was set.

The inventory of homes on the market is, according to recent data, at its highest level since 1988. S&P says that home prices are off 14% over the last year. But, the Commerce Department reports that new home sales are up. The conflicting data makes the map of the housing economy look like a plate of spaghetti.

Even with its run-up to $3.38 today, SPF is still down from its 52-week high of $22.17, which is hardly a recovery.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: May 27, 2008 – 11:12 am in Housing, , ,

Standard Pacific Looking To Raise Capital (SPF, XHB)

Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF) is doing something some might not expect out of a homebuilder.  It filed to raise up to $600 million by issuing securities and debt to fund the development or purchase of residential properties, acquire other homebuilders, or pay existing debts.

In an SEC Filing it disclosed that some 60% of its net deliveries for 2007 have come from the three troubles real estate markets of California, Florida, and Arizona.  As of September 30, 2007, Standard Pacific had roughly $26.9 million in cash and $416.4 million in long-term investments.  It also carried some $2.849 Billion in property, plant, and equipment.  Its total assets carried were listed as $4.0299 Billion.  It also listed $2.1 Billion in long-term debt and total liabilities were carried as $2.598 Billion.

Frankly, we see the potential dilutive nature of this would-be securities offering as a welcome sign despite what would have been a red flag during good times.  This will show if the company can raise funds for itself, maybe the worst in housing has been seen.

Yesterday we noted how the SPDR S&P Homebuilder (AMEX: XHB) ETF had recovered some 50% and showed that perhaps the worst has been seen in the sector.  Just a month or so ago, many of these homebuilders looked like some might go to zero.  Lehman Brothers also initiated coverage on the larger stocks in the group just this morning.

The California homebuilder is up 5% or $0.26 in mid-day trading to $5.24 and the 52 week range is $1.47 to $26.56.

Jon C. Ogg
February 27, 2008

Posted on: February 27, 2008 – 12:22 pm in Housing, Secondary Offering, ,

Many Homebuilders Up 100% From Lows (MTH, PHM, LEN, WCI, SPF, HOV, XHB)

Everyone knew homebuilders would turn one day and when they turned it would be fast and in a flurry of buying volume.  Much of this may attributed to short covering, but much is because the good old Fed and another 125 basis points in rate cuts within a 10-day period.  You know you can’t pay attention to the headlines on home sales or even the earnings out of these, because that is dismal.  But traders are taking aim here.  In fact some of these are up 100% off of lows already.

  • Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH) up 12% at $15.26, up over 100% from lows; 52-week range $7.04 to $46.65.
  • Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) up 14% at $15.52, up over 80% from lows; 52-week range $8.20 to $35.56.
  • Lennar (NYSE: LEN) up 8% at $19.70, up over 60% from lows; 52-week range $11.98 to $56.54.
  • WCI Communities (NYSE: WCI) up 14.5% at $5.98, up over 200% from lows; 52-week range $1.35 to $24.20.
  • Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF) up 22% at $3.78, up over 100% from lows; 52-week range $1.47 to $30.52
  • Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) up 10% at $9.68, up over 100% from lows; 52-week range $4.25 to $37.58.

We even ran the key ETF for the sector.  The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (AMEX: XHB) is up over 8% today to $22.10.  But even this is up almost 50% from the recent lows; 52-week trading range $15.22 to $40.03.  That low was just on January 9, 2008.

There are many other names that were equally charged.  But these were the ones that fir the screen today.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008 

Posted on: January 31, 2008 – 2:34 pm in Housing, , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Quebecor (IQW) Printing company announces refinancing and get downgrades. Falls to $3.03 from $14.79 high.

Virgin Mobile Usa (VM) Wider loss that expected. Falls to $8.07 from 52-week high of $15.69.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Home builder. Nothing more to say. Drops to $3.05 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Fannie Mae (FNM) Mortages and investigations. Bad mix. Falls to $36.86 from 52-week high of $70.57.

Atherogenics (AGIX) Problem with diabetes drug. Down to $.62 from 52-week high of $13.34.

Yrc Worldwide (YRCW) Weak trucking trends. Down to $17.39 from 52-week high of $47.09.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 16, 2007 – 4:19 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Novastar Finl Inc (NFI) Poor earnings and possible delisting. Drops to $1.72 from 52-week high of $127.20.

Standard Pacific  (SPF) Home builder. Down to $3.66 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Fannie Mae (FNM) Bad loans worse than expected. Falls to $32.16 from $70.57.

Home Solutions (HSOA) Delays quarterly filing. Slips to $1.50 from 52-week high $8.24.

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (PPHM) Problems will clinical trials still pushing shares down. Drops to $.44 from 52-week high of $1.40.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 15, 2007 – 4:38 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Dominos Pizza (DPZ) Quarterly profits drop along with shares. Down to $14.22 from 52-week high of $35.67.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Home builder on a day with more bad news about housing sales. Off to $4.18 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Metropcs Communications (PCS) Still dogged by weak wireless subscriber growth. Falls to $22.28 from 52-week high of $40.87.

McClatchy (MNI) Weak results at newspaper chain. Falls to $18.50 from 52-week high of $44.95.

Rite Aid (RAD) Poor same-store sales still taking toll. Down to $4.13 from 52-week high of $6,74.

Movie Gallery (MOVI) Best excuse for falling shares. Went bankrupt. Down to $.19 from 52-week high of $5.29.

Ericsson (ERIC) Wall St devastated by bad earnings. Shares fall down to $30.59 from 52-week high of $43.41.

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Mortgage and consumer credit worries. Falls to $31.05 from 52-high of $43.42.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 16, 2007 – 3:59 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club, Toyota (TM)

Toyota (TM) Hard to believe. Must be the UAW settlement. Drops $107.70 from 52-week high of $138.

Nautilus (NLS) Fitness company cuts jobs. Down to $6.74 from 52-week high of $18.63.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Home builder Drops to $4.50 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Nordstrom (JWN) Close retail continues to smart from falling same-store sales. Down to $41.75 from 52-week high of $59.70.

Rite Aid (RAD) Chain of retail drugstores still smarting from weak earnings. Drops to $4.18 to 52-week $6.74.

Memory Pharmaceuticals (MEMY) Key drug in development fails trial. Drops to $1.05 from 52-week high $4.94.

Sharper Image (SHRP) Niche retailer loses chance to close out litigation over product. Fall to $1.74 from 52-week high of $14.16.

Acxiom (ACXM) Jilted in private equity buy-out, shares keep dropping. Down to $13.89 from $28.25.

McClatchy Newspapers (MNI) Newspaper chain faces falling revenue and big debt load. Down to $18.90 from 52-week $44.95.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 15, 2007 – 3:16 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , ,

Will One Of The Home Builders Go Bankrupt? (DHI)(HOV)(BZH)(PHM)

The housing situation in the US may be getting bad enough so that one or more of the major home builders could face Chapter 11, especially if the downturn goes deep into 2008.

Bloomberg writes that "at least five of the top 15 homebuilders by revenue are burdened with too much debt, Agency Trading’s Barron said. They are Hovnanian (HOV), California-based Standard Pacific(SPF), WCI (WCI), Beazer Homes (BZH), and TOUSA Inc (TOA)."

“We would not be surprised to see one or more of the larger homebuilders become insolvent if current pricing trends persist into 2008,” Mark A. Morgan, senior equity financial analyst with New York-based Rochdale Securities LLC. Some media reports already indicate that several of these companies are in negotiations with their banks to improve payment terms on debt.

But, banks may not be able to help the larger homebuilders, especially in a market where investors are watching the banks themselves. Huge write-offs at Citicorp (C) and other big US financial companies have put pressure on managements at the firms to be more prudent.

If share price fall-off is any indication, Beazer and Standard Pacific are the most likely homebuilders to file for bankruptcy. While shares in most of the larger companies in the sector are off about 40% over the last year, shares in these two firms are down closer to 80%.

If one company files for Chapter 11, does it cause a huge shareholder stampede out of all of the others? Probably. Which means by early 2008 stocks in all of these companies could all be down by 80% from their late 2006 peaks.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 7, 2007 – 5:52 pm in Housing, , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (October 4, 2007)

AAPL started as Buy at BMO Capital.
AVR cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
BIOF cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
CHIC cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
CIEN raised to Neutral at UBS.
COO cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns.
ENDP cut to Hold at Jefferies.
ESL cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
FCL started as Outperform at FBR.
FISV raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
HANS cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs (see full note).
LIFC raised to Outperform at Piper Jaffray.
MOT target raised to $22 at Lehman.
MPWR raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
MXIM raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
MYL raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
NGLS removed from Goldman Sachs conviction buy list.
NHY raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
NTRI cut to Hold at Lazard.
PNRA raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
RAD raised to Neutral at HSBC.
SAP raised to Buy at Sun Trust; downgraded at Bernstein.
SHW raised to Buy at UBS.
SLAB cut to Hold at Citigroup.
SPF raised to Neutral at UBS.
WFT cut to Neutral at B of A.
WTSLA cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
X started as Underweight at JPMorgan.

Wachovia initiated major technology companies today, but it appears that this was part of the A.G.Edwards transitioning this week (AMD, INTC, TXN, DELL, IBM, HPQ, NOK, QCOM, BRCM, MOT, JAVA).  Here is a full list.

Jon C. Ogg
October 4, 2007

Posted on: October 4, 2007 – 7:00 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Hartmarx  (HMX) Maker of casual and golf apparel cuts guidance. Shares fall to $4.90 from 52-week high $8.69.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Home builder. Drops to $5.45 from 52-week high of $30.52.

La-Z-Boy (LZB) Tough economy means people don’t have time to sit down. Down to $7.30 from 52-week high of $15.60.

Bigband (BBND) Broadband infrastructure provider misses all targets. Down to $5.89 from post-IPO high of $21.63.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 28, 2007 – 3:52 pm in HI/LOW, , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Expressjet Holdings (XJT) Airlines still hurt by rising oil and failing economy. Falls to $3.09 from 52-week high of $9.61.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Home builder. Down to $5.66 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Content delivery over the internet getting squeezed by price cutting. Down to $28.13 from 52-week high of $59.69.

Panacos Pharmaceuticals (PANC) Still falling due to CFO departure and analyst downgrade. Falls to $1.48 from 52-week high of $7.23.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 27, 2007 – 3:07 pm in HI/LOW, , , ,

Housing Stocks:The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

We had two pieces of news today in the housing sector, and neither one of which were given a cheer. 

  • KB Home (KBH) issued earnings today and the losses were wide, but they are actually not below their recent 52-week lows even with shares down 0.5% at $24.00 today.
  • Today’s new home sales for August fell another 8.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 795,000 annually.  The Commerce Department said this is the lowest level since 2000.

But the list of 52-WEEK LOWS continues to be littered with housing related stocks.  So much for the efficient market theory being able to price events and trends in….This is becoming habitual if you key in on our list of new lows each day. 

Here are the stocks that hit 52-week lows today, and a "***" is meant to denote stocks that hit 52-week lows but wouldn’t have a new 52-week low close if it closed there at the time:

  • (BLG) Building Materials $10.90; $10.92 prior low (material side, not builder)
  • (DHI) D R Horton $12.80, at low of $12.80
  • (LEN) Lennar $21.85, below $22.20
  • ***(PHHM) Palm Harbor Homes $12.46, above $12.14 prior
  • (PHM) Pulte Homes $13.25, under $13.40 prior
  • (RYL) Ryland $20.78, under $20.91 prior
  • (SPF) Standard Pacific $5.69, under $5.90 prior

The beatings will continue until lender and borrower morale improves!

Jon C. Ogg
September 27, 2007

Posted on: September 27, 2007 – 11:44 am in Housing, , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Vonage Hldgs (VG) After losing case to Sprint (S), the company loses an appeal against Verizon (VZ). Falls to $.89 from 52-week high of $7.89.

Pulte Homes (PHM) Endless fall for home builders. Down to $13.40 from 52-week high of $35.56. Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), Standard Pacific (SPF), and DR Horton (DHI) also make the list.

Resources Connection (RECN) Misses Wall St. forecasts and hit with downgrades. Falls to $21.72 from 52-week high of $36.21.

SONUS Pharmaceuticals (SNUS) Trial of one of its drugs fails. Still falling. Drops to $.59 from 52-week high of $6.32.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Read More »

Posted on: September 26, 2007 – 4:33 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Pier 1 Imports (PIR) Analyst lowers estimate. Stock falls to $4.41 from 52-week high of $9.06.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Homebuilder taken down by more bad sector news. Falls to $6.12 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Vonage (VG) Loses patent suit by Sprint (S). Drops to $1.20 from 52-week high of $7.89.

Borders (BGP) Selling books in stores no longer much of a business. Down to $12.40 from 52-week high of $24.19.

Panacos Pharmaceuticals (PANC) Company downgraded and CFO leaves. Falls to $1.86 from 52-week high of $7.23.

The Finish Line (FINL) Involved in dispute about buying Genesco (GCO). Drops to $4.54 from 52-week high of $14.97.

Acxiom (ACXM) Concern over financing for private equity buy-out. Down to $18.81 from 52-week high of $28.25.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 5:29 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (September 25, 2007)

ACLI cut to Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald.
ARRS cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
BKR cut to Neutral at Oppenheimer.
BRCM cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
BZH started as Sell at UBS.
CAKE started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
CCBL cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
CKR started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
CSG cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns.
CTX started as Buy at UBS.
DF cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
DHI started as Sell at UBS.
EMC started as Buy at B of A.
EMC started as Buy at Jefferies.
FLWS raised to Outperform at CIBC.
GOL raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
GYI started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
HOV started as Neutral at UBS.
JBX started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
K cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
KBH started as Buy at UBS.
LEN started as Sell at UBS.
MCD started as neutral at Credit Suisse.
MMC cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MTH started as Neutral at UBS.
NILE started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
NTAP started as Neutral at Bank of America.
NVDA started as Neutral at UBS.
PACR cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
PFCB started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
PHM started as Sell at UBS.
RHT started as Sector Perform at RBC.
RT started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
RYL started as Neutral at UBS.
SNIC raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
SPF started as Sell at UBS.
TAM raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
TXRH started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
WON raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
September 25, 2007

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 7:08 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

UBS Starts Coverage of Homebuilders (BZH, CTX, DHI, HOV, KBH, MTH, PHM, RYL, SPF, LEN, LOW)

Lennar posted earnings and as expected these were just ugly.  The loss was $3.25 per share after charges, although this includes charges of $3.33 per share.  Revenues were $2.34 Billion.   Lennar’s home sale revenue fell 44% to $2.2 billion. Cancellation rate was 32%; New orders fell 48% to 5,804 homes.  And if this wasn’t foreseeable, the company will be having more job cuts in the coming quarter.  Lennar shares are indicated down $1.30 to 41.70 at what will be another set of 52-week lows.

UBS has initiated coverage of homebuilders:

  • Beazer (BZH) started as Sell;
  • Centex (CTX) started as Buy;
  • D.R.Horton (DHI) started as Sell;
  • Hovnanian (HOV) started as Neutral;
  • KB Home (KBH) started as Buy;
  • Lennar started as Sell;
  • Meritage (MTH) started as Neutral;
  • Pulte (PHM) started as Sell;
  • Ryland (RYL) started as Neutral;
  • Standard Pacific (SPF) started as Sell.

Lowe’s (LOW) earnings warning last night is also pulling the related and tertiary sector down.

Jon C. Ogg
September 25, 2007

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 6:59 am in Housing, , , , , , , , , , ,

Lennar Earnings Will Throw Out The Kitchen Sink Too (LEN, SPF, XHB)

Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) is set to report earnings on Tuesday, September 25, 2007.  If you can find any great positive calls ahead of this it is only from an analyst named Pangloss. 

If the actual earnings estimates even matter, the official numbers from First Call are -$0.55 EPS and $2.39 Billion.  We already know of the continued losses, credit crunch, cancelled contracts, unapproved buyers, property option losses and even the mortgage financing tricks and incentives.  Everything is expected to look bad in the report.  It will just boil down to whether or BAD will lead to fears of insolvency and/or how long the company says it can ride the current trends.  This will be a true kitchen sink quarter, no pun intended.

Lennar has exposure to good markets and bad markets alike: Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, California, Nevada, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

Lennar closed down at $24.18, under the prior $24.45 52-week low.  The 52-week high is $56.64.  BY a measure of market cap of common stock, Lennar is one of the top in homebuilders.  Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) was knocked down to 52-week lows after it said it was eliminating its dividend to pay down debt.  This also crushed the housing ETF: The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (AMEX:XHB).

Jon C. Ogg
September 24, 2007

Posted on: September 24, 2007 – 3:30 pm in Earnings, Housing, , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Circuit City (CC) After announcing weak financials, can’t get off the list. Down to $8.07 from 52-week high of $29.31.

Standard Pacific (SPF) California homebuilder said it would stop paying a quarterly dividend and instead use the estimated $10 million a year to pay down debt. Drops to $6.86 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Lennar Corporation (LEN) Another housing stock. Down to $24.05 from 52-week high of $56.54.

McClatchy Newspapers (MNI) Newspaper chains continue move down. Drops to $20.01 from 52-week high of $44.95.

Nortel Networks (NT) Recent analyst report says no turnaround soon. Shares down to $15.80 from 52-week high of $31.79.

Sonus (SNUS) Drug trial fails. Drops to $.65 from 52-week high of $6.32.

Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)  Ethanol prices are down about a third over the last few months. Shares fall to $8.94 from 52-week high of $19.80.

Posted on: September 24, 2007 – 3:02 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , ,