Chinese solar makers Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) both announced results for their first quarters. Suntech managed to beat revenue expectations, posting sales of $409.5 million versus a consensus estimate of $406 million. But the total reflects a decline of -34.9% sequentially and 53.3% year-over-year. The company posted an EPS loss of -$0.74 compared with an estimate of -$0.50. Gross margins fell to just 0.6%, down from 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and 20.8% in the same period a year ago.

Trina did even more poorly. Revenues totaled $350 million versus a consensus estimate of $398.5 million and the loss per ADR totaled -$0.42 compared with an estimated loss of -$0.29. Gross margins came in at 13.3%, but the company’s operating margin fell to -11.4%, somewhat better than the operating margin of -14.4% in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Profits and margins for both companies include reserves taken to pay the anti-dumping duties recently approved the US Department of Commerce.

Of the solar makers, only Renesola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) put up solid enough numbers for the first quarter to enjoy any kind of bump in share price. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) posted a surprise EPS loss for the first quarter and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) missed on revenues while coming in slightly ahead of EPS estimates. Chinese solar maker LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) posted horrible results in its fourth quarter and expected results for the first quarter don’t look good either. Neither do estimates for JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) or Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

Suntech said it expects shipments to increase by 20% in the second quarter and gross margins to improve to 3%-6%. The company maintained its full-year shipment guidance of 2,100-2,500 megawatts.

Trina forecast shipment growth of about 31%-37% in the second quarter and gross margins of around 10%. For the full year the company expects to ship 2,000-2,100 megawatts.

Shares of Suntech have fallen about -2.5% by early afternoon today to $1.93 in a 52-week range of $1.70-$8.50. Trina’s shares are up 0.75% at $5.37 in a 52-week range of $5.20-$23.64.

Paul Ausick

Commerce preliminarily determined that Chinese producers/exporters sold solar cells in the United States at dumping margins ranging from 31.14 percent to 249.96 percent.

By ITA’s definition, “dumping occurs when a foreign company sells a product in the United States at less than fair value.”

Two Chinese companies, Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), will have to pay “dumping margins” (tariffs) of 31.22% and 31.14%, respectively. An additional 59 companies and subsidiaries, including Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ, Hanwha Solarone Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: HSOL), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), will pay dumping margins of 31.18%.

The government of China has already rejected the findings, and the Associated Press reports that a Commerce Ministry official said, “The U.S. ruling is unfair, and the Chinese side expresses its extreme dissatisfaction.”

In reality, the Chinese got off easy. The dumping margins are set at the absolutely lowest end of the scale. In March the Commerce Department hit the Chinese makers with tariffs of less than 5%, far below the 100% tariff demanded by SolarWorld and its co-complainants.

The Commerce Department even left the Chinese makers a way out:

Modules, laminates, and panels produced in a third-country from cells produced in the PRC are covered by this investigation; however, modules, laminates, and panels produced in the PRC from cells produced in a third-country are not covered by this investigation.

So China can move its solar cell manufacturing to Thailand or the Philippines or Vietnam, re-import the parts to China for final assembly, and sell the finished goods in the US without penalty, and presumably at whatever price the manufacturers want.

The largest part of the US solar industry is also likely to be dissatisfied by the preliminary ruling. Companies like Real Goods Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: RSOL) and SolarCity — which has filed for an IPO — have been able to turn low prices for solar panels into a healthy installation business. US solar makers First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) all own their own project management and installation businesses as well.

Yesterday’s ruling by the ITA is a not much more than a loss of face to China’s makers, while it could be a real job-killer in the US. Anyone who believes that manufacturing solar cells and modules in the US will become a massive industry probably also believes in the Easter Bunny.

A final ruling on the case is not due until November, and appeals are possible — and likely — fairly quickly.

The ITA’s preliminary ruling is available here.

Most Chinese solar stocks are trading higher in the pre-market this morning. That should tell you all you need to know about this ruling.

Paul Ausick

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been a total disaster, but short covering and bottom-fishing traders are snapping up shares.  After an all-time low of $13.75 this week, shares recovered to $14.92 on Thursday on the most active volume in two weeks (over 10 million shares).  Shares are indicated above $15.00 for Friday but we will see if this can hold. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) recovered more than 10% on Thursday after a recent low of $4.94 with a close of $5.59 on over 4 million shares (most since Feb 17 at 7.3 million shares).

One potential problem to consider is that the tariffs could inadvertently impact some of the U.S. producers of solar panels as well.  The issue is that many components involved in making these PV panels also come from China.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is a loser in this tariff effort.  Shares were at $2.60 just last Friday and the ADRs closed down at $2.13 on Thursday.  Shares are indicated higher on Friday but we will have to see how it pans out.  Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) is another loser with its ADR closing at $6.08 Thursday after having been at $7.50 just last Friday.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) closed lower on Thursday at $2.91, but this is actually in-line with prices just last Friday and its 52-week range is $2.54 to $7.90.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is often lost in the shuffle as it is on the technology side of the solar PV process.  It is also in LED technology.  Shares closed down at $4.49 on Thursday against a 52-week low of $4.24.  The 12 million shares traded on Thursday was the highest trading volume seen since last August.

If you really want to know what the trend is on a global-solar basis, just follow the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN).  This ETF closed down yet again at $18.35 on Thursday after closing at $19.21 the prior day and against a $20.61 close last Friday.

Unfortunately, the solar sector has its share of woes and pain.  Austerity, expiration of tax credits, a lack of cost-effectiveness, and other issues are going to be present for the time being whether tariffs exist or not.

JON C. OGG

News on Wednesday night showed that Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy is leaving the company to rejoin a position at Praxair.  The news is on the heels of previous report showing a major loss due to poor solar materials sales. Does the notion that MEMC named Brian Wuebbels as executive vice president and CFO help?  Not really, even if Murphy will act as a “consultant” during the transition period.

Losing a CFO is not as bad as losing a founder and not as bad as losing a CEO, but the problem with losing a CFO is that Wall Street assumes that the CFO has lost faith in the future of the company. In some cases, it could mean something far worse.  With MEMC shares having fallen from over $90 during teh solar boom down to under $2.00 it is easy to wonder if things are going from just awful to even worse.

So, here is where we cannot help but wonder about MEMC’s future.  Thomson Reuters expects a loss of -$0.10 EPS in 2012 on sales of $2.6 billion.  But almost magically in 2013 the consensus is back up to $0.45 EPS on $2.83 billion in sales.  The revenues in 2011 were $2.715 billion, in 2010 they were $2.239 billion, and 2009 revenues were $1.163 billion.  The problem is that sales in the solar sector are getting harder and harder to come by and the solar sector is in total disarray.  The company’s latest loss and decline in revenues also reflected weak demand in the semiconductor wafer markets.  Yep, MEMC is facing a war on two fronts and its non-GAAP margins are getting squeezed.

The sector leaders are looking like hell frozen over.  First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is effectively at all-time lows if you discount a small 2% gain today.  SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down over 75% since Total SA (NYSE: TOT) bought the controlling interest.

If the company was on the verge of a great turnaround then the CFO would seemingly not have pulled the ripcord on the way down here.  The company has what looks to be ample cash reserves to fund operations, but it also has significant amounts of long-term debt. This situation just feels like it is one which is going from awful to far worse.

MEMC is in serious trouble.  Still, it is one of these outfits that has enough cash to fund operations for probably quite some time, but its core businesses are challenged and the company has so far been unable to get its operating costs in order.  It has also forecast a weaker demand for semiconductor materials in 2012 as well as a lower price per watt in solar.  Our big concern is that the projections may have been based entirely upon the CFO forecasts just a week or so ago, and his departure would bring even the lower guidance into question.

For whatever this is worth, Wunderlich Securities cut its target down to $1.00 after it maintained a SELL rating after the most recent earnings.

It is too soon to declare that MEMC will be a total implosion.  It is even possible that there could be a turnaround of major proportion coming here.  Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case any time in the immediate future.

So you tell me in a poll, no “I don’t know” answers allowed…

JON C. OGG

When the company reported fourth quarter earnings in March, it set expectations for the first quarter fairly low: shipments of 400-420 megawatts of modules and wafers and revenues of $180-$190 million. Now it might be that Renesola was managing expectations, but based on today’s results and the fourth quarter’s report, the company appears to have won its first battle with managing costs. That solution has so far eluded First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO). Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) is scheduled to report earnings later today and analysts expect an EPS loss of -$1.07 on revenue of just $158.9 million, about half the revenue of a year ago.

In March, Renesola’s CEO said this about his company’s cost structure:

Although we achieved our year-end cost-reduction targets, which placed our cost structure among the lowest in the industry, it was not enough to offset extremely low solar wafer and module prices.

In the first quarter the company’s module manufacturing cost fell to $0.74/watt and Renesola expects to lower that to $0.70/watt in the second quarter. Half the cost savings will come from lower wafer costs and the rest from lower pricing for polysilicon. The company is vertically integrated and makes its own wafers and polysilicon, which helps keep its costs down.

For the first quarter Renesola had positive gross margin of 9% on its solar modules while its overall gross margin was negative, -3.8%. That’s not good, but it’s a lot better than the negative gross margin of -28.1% the company posted in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of 2011 gross margin rang in at 21%. Those were the days.

Shares in Renesola are up nearly 12% in pre-market trading, at $2.00, in a 52-week range of $1.45-$8.83.

Paul Ausick

Solar panel makers like First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), and Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) have watched panel prices erode about -50% in the last year. Polysilicon prices have dropped -70% and companies like MEMC simply can’t reduce costs fast enough to keep up with collapsing demand and a race to the bottom on polysilicon prices.

MEMC’s adjusted gross margins for the quarter were down to 10% from 11.6% in the previous quarter and full year 2011 margin of 18%. Perhaps the worst news of all for the company is that its SunEdison division which designs and installs solar PV systems installed new projects totalling 49 megawatts in the first quarter, down -55% sequentially and -11% year-over-year.

The company also forecast somewhat weak revenue growth for the second quarter and a revenue drop for the full fiscal year. The company said its sales volume for the full year would be more than 400 megawatts and that second quarter volume would be 130-170 megawatts. Taking a midpoint of 150 megawatts and first quarter sales of just 47 megawatts, that estimate indicates expected growth in the second half of the year. MEMC better hope so.

Shares of MEMC are down -24% today, at $2.47 after posting a new 52-week low of $2.46 earlier. The prior 52-week range was $3.20-$11.31.

Paul Ausick

Westinghouse Solar is a designer and manufacturer of integrated rooftop solar power systems, and CBD is an Australian diversified renewable energy company.  Margaret Randazzo is currently the CFO of Westinghouse Solar and she was also appointed Interim CEO as former CEO Barry Cinnamon is leaving the company.  CBD anticipates that it will shift to a U.S. listing upon the closing of the merger and it plans to list its common shares on that NASDAQ.

The press release noted that the initial meetings about a merger took place in December of 2011.  It is now May and we cannot help but to wonder whether or not other solar companies have considered mergers.  Here are two of the easy observations in the broader solar sector:

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is now at all-time lows and has remained profitable so far despite shares being down 90% from last year’s highs.  It is now only worth about $1.4 billion and it would be considered a busted IPO if the move happened faster.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is already majority-owned by Total SA (NYSE: TOT) and it trades at about 75% under where Total took its stake of almost $1.4 billion.  The entire market cap including the majority stake held by Total is only $628 million.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is in China and now only worth $360 million.  There have been takeover rumors before in this name but the China base and woes in China right now probably make it difficult for a non-Chinese player to acquire the company.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is a name which used to come up regularly in the takeover rumor category, although it has been so battered that getting approval might be impossible after 95% losses from the peak.  It is now worth only about $764 million in market cap.

We would note that Energy Conversion Devices was also always a ‘merger rumor name’ in solar but it went bankrupt.  There is no assurance that other solar mergers are on the horizon, but these companies might want to start thinking about stock mergers which could still give holders upside if the combined companies turn around and thrive again.

To show just how bad things are, the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) ETF trades at $21.09 and it has lost one-third of its value since its reverse split.

Westinghouse shares closed at $0.40 and its 52-week trading range is $0.26 to $2.75.  The market value was only $6.66 million as of Tuesday’s close.

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JON C. OGG

Shares of First Solar are down another -6% today, currently trading at $16.61, after putting up (down?) a new 52-week low of $16.51 earlier. The other large US solar panel maker, SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down -5.5% at $5.50 in a range of $4.94-$23.36. Even China’s Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) is down about -3.6%, and that’s after the news that the company completed a $238 million bond sale at yields as low as 5.78%.

Compare Yingli’s yield to Germany’s SolarWorld AG, the country’s largest solar panel maker, which saw rates on its 5-year notes rise to 49.4% last week. And the government of Angela Merkel wants to cut the country’s subsidies for solar installations even more in a move that has drawn opposition from political foes and even some allies.

Four of Germany’s solar panel makers have filed for bankruptcy since December. This is leading to job losses in an industry that had been adding jobs to the country’s economy for years. First Solar will close its plant in Germany and eliminate 1,200 jobs. Q-Cells, the largest of the German countries to file for bankruptcy, could be forced to fire as many as 1,300 German workers.

Merkel and her government have taken a hard line on the subsidy cuts, insisting that the subsidies are driving up the cost of electricity to consumers. The government’s environment minister said last month that the industry will just have to learn to live with lower subsidies and he believes that employment in renewable energy will continue to rise. He told Bloomberg Businessweek:

The success story in the job sector continued last year, and everything points to that it will continue this year. If enormous overcapacity exists in the solar sector, this will lead to adjustments that we can’t and shouldn’t stop with excessive subsidies.

Germany’s state governments and representatives to the federal government don’t agree, though. The governor of one state — and a member of Merkel’s political party — has said that the planned subsidy cuts “are detrimental to the many companies producing in our region and we want a fundamental change.”

This is the austerity vs. growth argument writ small. If Merkel is getting pushback from her own party on an austerity measure, it’s not so hard to believe that she’ll begin to feel the pressure soon to be coming from France and maybe even Greece.

The solar industry could be a bellwether for Germany as the steep cuts in jobs could begin to pinch local and regional governments. The country has already lost many of its manufacturers and is not really an exporter of solar panels. And exports have been the key to Germany’s ability to withstand the financial woes that have hit other Eurozone countries.

None of this matters to First Solar, though, and probably doesn’t matter much to SunPower. But Yingli, a low-cost, high-volume manufacturer, that looks like it can weather the current storm in the solar industry could be a longer term winner.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 168 points to 13,038.04 (-1.28%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 68 points (-2.25%) to 2,956.34, and the S&P 500 fell -1.62% or more than 22 points to 1,369.09.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD) target price raised to $140 at Susquehanna; FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) raised to ‘strong buy’ at Raymond James; The Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) raised to ‘overweight’ at Barclays; Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) started as ‘outperform’ at BMO; and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) reiterated ‘buy’ and target price of $14 at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down -6% at $16.98 after posting a new 52-week low of $16.80 earlier today (more solar coverage here); SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down -2.1% at $5.58; AES Corp. (NYSE: AES) is down -0.7% at $12.13 (more utilities coverage here); Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) is up 0.9% at $21.60; Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) is down -5.8% at $60.44 (more coverage here); The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) is down -5.4% at $355.88; Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC) is down -0.7% at $38.54; and The Madison Square Garden Co. (NASDAQ: MSG) is up 3.7% at $37.87 after posting a new 52-week high of $38.38..

On Monday we get earnings from American States Water Co. (NYSE: AWR), Breitburn Energy Partners L.P. (NASDAQ: BBEP), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH), Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX), Kid Brands Inc. (NYSE: KID), Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), and Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: BAGL) is up 19.9% at $16.84 after posting a new 52-week high of $17.68 earlier today. The bagel maker and restaurateur reported strong earnings and said it would begin to explore strategic options.

Dolby Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: DLB) is up 17.5% at $44.22. The company reported strong earnings and has signed a deal with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). More coverage here.

Body Central Corp. (NASDAQ: BODY) is down -47.8% at $15.11. The young women’s apparel seller reported poor earnings and forecast more of the same until at least back-to-school season.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6- month bill auction
• 3:00 p.m. – Consumer credit report

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

Two of China’s five large solar PV makers will report quarterly results later this month. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) reports on May 17th and is expected to post an EPS loss of $0.29 on revenues of $396.3 million, a revenue decline of about -28% compared with the same period last year. Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) reports on May 15th and the consensus estimates call for an EPS loss of -$0.21 on revenue of $448.8 million, a drop of nearly -15% in revenues year-over-year.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) won’t report first quarter earnings until later, but it posted a huge EPS loss of -$4.63 in the fourth quarter and is expected to show an EPS loss of -$0.88 on revenue of $265.4 million, a revenue drop of more than -65% year-over-year. Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) also reports late, but its fourth quarter EPS loss totaled -$0.76 and first quarter estimates call for an EPS loss of -$0.50 on revenue of $410.9 million, a -53% dive in sales. JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) reports later as well, following a fourth quarter loss of -$0.11 and estimates for another EPS loss of -$0.15 on revenues of $234.7 million, a revenue decline of more than -57%.

First Solar’s quarterly sales of $497 million were $163 million lower sequentially and $70 million lower than the same period a year ago. The adjusted EPS loss for the quarter was -$0.08, and the GAAP loss was a whopping -$5.20/share, some $4.64 of which went to cover restructuring charges and another $0.48 covered excess warranty expenses. Analysts had consensus estimates for EPS of $0.59 on revenue of $681.5 million.

SunPower’s quarterly revenues came in light as well, at $494.1 million versus an estimate of $525.4 million. The adjusted EPS loss of -$0.12 was better than the estimated loss of -$0.15.

The dismal report notwithstanding, First Solar raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance from $3.75-$4.25 to $4.00-$4.50, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.07. The company also anticipates an increase in its operating cash flow, from $800-$900 million to a new range of $850-$950 million.

SunPower said next quarter’s EPS loss would range from -$0.20 to -$0.05, compared with a consensus estimate of -$0.05. The second quarter revenue estimate was unchanged at $575-$650 million versus a consensus estimate of $638.9 million.

First Solar and SunPower are both restructuring (shrinking) as fast as they can with an eye toward lowering costs to a level at which the companies can again make a profit. The catch is that their Chinese competitors are doing the same thing, and in this race to the bottom there can never be a real winner. Any companies left standing will be staggering badly.

First Solar’s shares are down more than -5.5% today at $17.05 after posting a new 52-week low of $16.93 earlier. The previous range was $17.50-$142.22. SunPower’s shares are down about -1.8% at $5.60 in a 52-week range of $4.94-$23.36.

The Chinese companies are mixed, with Yingli up about 3% and JA Solar down about -3% with the others spread around in between.

Paul Ausick