Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) did not release an FDA decision on Friday on its site nor via any of the wires that we read reporting on one.  This was over its data for Byetta,  the first ‘once weekly’ diabetes treatment for Type II diabetes.  Partners Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) and Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) are also in.  Lilly’s Alkermes is the delivery technology that allows for a delivery over the course of a week.

Barron’s has a piece out over the weekend cautioning the investor world about the big risks in solar companies which may be very vulnerable to supply/ demand issues.  Eric Savitz in Technology Trader singled out Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) and the Uni-Solar division of Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ: ENER) as being vulnerable. It is hard to imagine that these won’t be hit on Monday morning.

AthenaHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHN) is on deck for earnings on Monday after the closing bell.  Be advised that we have not confirmed this release due to its recent earnings delay along with its annual report delay.  Thomson Reuters has estimates at $0.17 EPS on just over $55 million.  At $38 and change, shares have held up rather well considering its delayed 10-K and it telegraphing that earnings restatements were likely.  Its 52-week trading range is $23.15 to $47.82.  Due to the recent changes, this one is going to be a wait and see for many traders and investors.  For whatever it is worth, the open interest here is leaning toward the PUTS over CALLS by more than 2 to 1.

Sequenom In.c (NASDAQ: SQNM) is also on deck for earnings after the close on Monday.  While this one is down over the last five sessions, Sequenom has exhibited a stellar return from its lows with gains of 200% or more.  We are not looking at estimates here because the withdrawn Down’s Syndrom test has marked that largely irrelevant.  The company’s last cash balance with securities included was over $65 million.  The company may have some of its woes behind it, but calling the ball here may be alchemy rather than science.

We have compiled detailed expectations and background data for each.  For earnings, we have provided Thomson Reuters data, the other expected data, and historical data on each stock.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) has finally gotten past the  Dec2009 options expiration date.  Ahead of the spin-off of Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) and rebalancing of indexes, Bristol-Myers used to trade about 10 million shares a day.  Bristol-Myers traded a whopping 123 million shares on Friday as a result of this event.  Mead Johnson even traded 36 million shares on the event Friday, and that is 50% more than it traded on its IPO date 10 months ago in February.  The Bristol-Myers DEC2009 options had an unbelievably large open interest of what appeared to be 900,000 PUT and CALLS in the $30 strike at the end of last week.  That is not just unheard of, it was outright ludicrous.  Bristol-Myers shares closed up $25.78 after hitting as high as $26.08 on Friday.  A new high was hit this week and now the 52-week trading range is $17.23 to $26.17.  Bristol-Myers did trade above $30 briefly in 2007, but the stock is now at a share price that used to act as resistance on the charts before it ran to $30+.  In short, now a further run-up in the shares has to occur because of more good news for the company itself rather than indexers and options traders making index and spin-off bets.  The stock is also trading above its implied analyst price target as Thomson Reuters has a mean target of $24.80 and a median target of $25.00.

Conseco Inc. (NYSE: CNO) had a secondary offering of 45 million shares at $4.75 per share this last week to raise just over $200 million.  Of the funds $150 million was paying off credit obligations and the rest is for general corporate purposes.  The stock had gotten back to $5.14 before the pricing this last week.  What is left to watch is that it is likely that billionaire John Paulson already took a huge stake and it is probably a safe guess that you will see a Fed Filing this week showing that he bought more shares.  While that is not a game changer, it may offer many bulls a fresh lift on technically no-new-news.  There are no assurances on this filing coming out, but it would make sense as Paulson is already a large holder here in Conseco and certainly knows how to play the game as this is back close to where he first invested in Conseco.

Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. (NASDAQ: HMIN) is a large economy-priced hotel chain in China with hundreds of locations.  Its stock has been on a rampage and after Friday’s 1% gain to $36.18, its 52-week trading range is $7.50 to $38.00.  This one has only been public since 2006 and the stock is getting back up to the old 2007 highs where the stock ran up twice to above $40.00 after its 2006 IPO.  So why do we care?  It was listed as the #1 CHART of the IBD 100 this weekend.  You have to decide for yourself on this one because we don’t endorse chasing merely for the fact that someone noticed its chart has not had a pullback in months.

Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL) is back from the tech-EMS deathbed that so many investors thought was looking to be the case.  At $14.80, its 52-week trading range is $3.10 to $15.45.  It is one of the reports this week with earnings on Monday.  Thomson Reuters has estimates at $0.29 EPS and $3.11 billion in revenues.  Jabil’s year-end is not until August, so if we take a blend of the $1.02 EPS estimate for Aug-2010 and the $1.32 EPS estimate for AUG-2011 we get a forward multiple of 12.6-times forward earnings.  That is fairly cheap considering earnings and revenue growth are expected, but EMS stocks tend to always trade with discounted multiples.  A blended analyst target from Thomson Reuters appears to be about $15.75, although this figure may have changed or might not be updated.

OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP) fell for four days in a row last week.  The news was that the FDA panel was rejecting Tarceva as a first-line maintenance program for certain lung cancer patients.  While this was not good, there was actually very little trader anticipation here in the binary options patterns trading which you normally see ahead of an FDA panel recommendation date.  Shares were at $35.41 last Monday and closed out the week at $31.07 for more than a 12% loss.  So far we have only seen Thomson Reuters estimates for 2010 go down  to $1.62 EPS from $1.66 EPS a week before.  With a $27.01 to $43.00 range over the last 52-weeks, this seems as though they are more than compensating you for the loss of an added indication.

Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) hit a new 52-week high on Friday.  The maker of boxed Linux software operating systems and office suite software also reports earnings on Tuesday.  This was once considered a likely takeover target, but the price has gotten in the way now.  At $29.27, its 52-week trading range is $11.60 to $29.68; and its market cap is now $5.5 billion.  Thomson Reuters has estimates pegged at $0.16 EPS and $188.49 million in revenues.  February 2010 is its fiscal year-end and consensus is $0.67 EPS on $736.91 million in revenues.  So this one trades at 43-times earnings and 7.5-times revenues.  The stock has almost 5.5 million shares listed in its most recent short interest, or about 2.5-days to cover.  Even with this short interest, this has all the look and feel for a company which HAS TO blow away earnings and raise guidance.

We have said that the gold trade may be dead for the rest of 2009, and this week will be a part of that.  The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has completely broken out of that bullish pattern that was in place and now it is in a technical No Man’s land.  You can have gold go up or down $40.00 an ounce and no technical alerts will be challenged with significance in either direction. Gold went out at $1,112.70 per ounce on Friday.  A longer-term trend line will likely come up, if it needs to be tested that is, closer to $1,000 per ounce later in January.  With everyone’s eyes on the US Dollar, any strengthening of the dollar after a perpetual period of a weakening dollar will likely make this more of a risk than exists today on the sole gold fundamentals without the inverse-dollar relationship.  We’d only look to buy big dips or sell big gains here if they occur for the rest of the year.  Adam Hewison at INO was right, this is the silly season of gold.

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) may be done or may have been shown to be as bad as the most skeptical observers have feared after the roller coaster ride of 2009.  Everyone suspected very foul play here, but allegations this last week from an outside group called Xenomics, Inc. may have sealed the fate if there is truth to the allegations.   Xenomics said “an ongoing internal investigation by Xenomics’ personnel of the events surrounding its licensing deal with Sequenom in late October, 2008 leads it to conclude that Sequenom purposely misled the Company – fraudulently inducing Xenomics into granting Sequenom an exclusive license to its transrenal technology. Sequenom’s announced success in developing a Down Syndrome test in late 2008 was the principal factor in Xenomics’ decision to exclusively license its core Transrenal DNA and RNA technology in the area of fetal diagnostics to Sequenom.” This means jail time potentially for former officers if you take this just one small step further, and the company does not have enough capital to defend itself from shareholder suits.  The $57+ million in cash and in short and long term investments will be consumed faster than a keg at a frat party, and the company is already burning liquidity at a rapid rate.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) ramped up all week ahead of its S&P 500 Index inclusion.  This was a shoe-in index inclusion for Visa with a market cap of over $60 billion before it was even announced, and the stock ran up from $81.34 a week before to $88.97 on Friday on trading volume of 84,383,400 shares alone on the day S&P included it.  This gave an almost 5% gain for those who bought last Monday on the first index inclusion alert even after the first pop on the news.  With shares back at all-time highs, the traders who made their front-running trades will probably see an exit this week. At $88.97, it is also about $2.00 shy of the official analyst average price targets listed by Thomson Reuters.

Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) is one of the few earnings this coming week.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.48 EPS and $16.3 billion in revenues for the quarter-end NOV2009.  Estimates for the coming quarter-end in FEB2010 are $0.74 EPS and $17.7 billion.  Shares closed at $36.64 on Friday after a near-2% loss on very large volume of over 17 million shares, and the 52-week trading range is $21.39 to $40.69.  The good news for investors is that analysts still have an average price target north of $42.00.  The bad news is that Friday’s close was the lowest reading since the end of September for a closing price, meaning there are no great expectations going into earnings.  Walgreen has a year-end after Aug-2010, so if we take a blended figure of $2.36 EPS for AUG-2010 and $2.77 EPS for AUG-2011 for an implied forward ratio then the forward earnings multiple for Walgreen is 14.3-times earnings.  Not overly expensive, not generously cheap.

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JON C. OGG
DECEMBER 20, 2009

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up about 2% on guidance but off last night’s highs..

EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. (NASDAQ: EZCH) is down another 3% after yesterday’s drop on the secondary offering.

Yongye International, Inc. (NASDAQ: YONG) is down over 9% on a secondary offering.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is nuts today and down at $3.15, right where the secondary priced.  Look for 1 billion shares by the open.

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is down over 8% on allegations it fudged test results.

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JON C. OGG

We have given new options data and pivot points for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) now that the stock has gotten out of that solid trend and has entered into a technical no-man’s land.

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is up over 6% at a short squeeze is being caused by a very weak upgrade.

Netlist Inc. (NASDAQ: NLST) is up over 6% and seems to be just riding market coat tails.

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) is down only 1% on a planned 15 million share secondary offering.

Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN) is down over 2% on profit taking as raised guidance was baked in.

AVANIR Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNR) has taken the leader board for top gainers as a small-cap active biotech stock.

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JON C. OGG

Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie.
CA Inc. (NYSE: CA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.
Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) Raised to Hold at Auriga.
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VNDA) Started as Buy at Jefferies.

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JON C. OGG

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Central Euro Media Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ: CETV) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) Cut to Sell at Citigroup; Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; Cut to Hold at Lazard.
GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) Cut to Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE: RAX) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; Raised to Buy at Kaufman
Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) Maintained Sell and $3 target at Auriga.

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JON C. OGG

We have included Thomson Reuters consensus estimates and included performance and other important color where applicable.  We have shown the share performance since the March 9 close that traders mark as the official end date of the bloody bear market.  One issue to consider is that we used the performance since June 30 to keep consistency for our prior previews even though some of the quarter-ends this coming week are technically August 31.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) is on deck Monday afternoon.  As always, EA has a huge discrepancy between its non-GAAP and GAAP data.  The most recent short interest was over 21.5 million shares, which is actually the largest short interest position seen in EA over the last year.  This last quarter is a mere fraction of the importance of what lies ahead because the holiday season is the most important quarter in video games.  Estimates are $0.07 EPS and $1.13 billion in revenues, but the coming quarter we are already in has estimates of $0.88 EPS and $1.61 billion in revenues.  EA has lost its was as a stock as its $19.00 share price is in the middle of a $14.24 to $23.95 range in the last year.  But the slide that started in September 2008 was never recovered as it was almost $50 then and was a $60.00 stock  two years ago.  The stock is only up about 21% from March 9 and it is down over 10% since June 30.

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER), the solar play everyone used to love that can now find no love, is on deck Monday. Consensus estimates are -$0.31 EPS and $56.4 million.  Next quarter consensus is -$0.20 EPS and $71.65 million in revenues.  Its fiscal year is June-2010 and it is expected to lose money for the fiscal year.  The reason this will be interesting is to hear if there is any truth to anything regarding a takeover, particularly since this one had a rights offering in the last quarter.  This 15.3 million share short interest is going to be a reason in the reaction.  The stock has been an awful performer and the only good news is that it is now ‘only’ down about 70% from a 52-week high rather than down almost 90% like it had been before hose old $80 peak share prices went out of the 52-week parameters.

Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) is on deck for Monday afternoon and consensus estimates are $2.92 EPS and $693.9 million in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $1.49 EPS and $506.8 million in revenues.  Priceline might not be a key economic company, but it gives insight into travel trends that can still be applied for hotels and airfare.  The stock is also up well over 200% from its 52-week lows, up over 100% from the March 9 close and up over 50% from the June 30 date.

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is on deck and the actual earnings report is not what will be of interest.  Consensus estimates are -$0.28 EPS and $8.54 million in revenues.  But the issues to take here are that the company is still largely vacant after the wave of management firings and resignations over the botched data handling of its Down’s Syndrome test results.   It has recently hired a CFO and the company just entered into an amended exclusive technology license with Isis Innovation Limited for the fundamental patented noninvasive prenatal diagnostic technology.  Isis agreed to certain time-based commercial launch milestones and Sequenom agreed to make an immediate one-time payment of $1,000,000, increase royalty payments under the agreement during the final 12 months of the patent term and increase the specified minimum royalty amounts.  Cash-burn is key here… It ended with over $70 million in cash last quarter and what the company says about how long that lasts will be key and you know that the cash is being consumed much faster now and it is always possible that it will go to shareholder suit verdicts down the road for how poorly this company has handled everything.  That 21+ million share short interest is going to be a factor.

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) is on deck for Tuesday as that day’s key report.  Estimates are $0.54 EPS and $4.32 billion in revenue, and next quarter estimates are $0.56 EPS and $4.25 billion in revenues.  This September quarter also marks its fiscal year-end with estimates of $2.29 EPS and $17.15 billion in revenues (almost a 15 P/E and under 1-times revenues).  Tyco is still active in security and is still somewhat misunderstood by many who consider it a large conglomerate before it broke itself up.  But shares are up over 100% from its 52-week lows, up over 100% from the March 9 close, and shares are up 33% from June 30.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is on deck for Wednesday afternoon. The chip equipment maker, and now solar player, is the king of its sector to most traders and investors.  As cap-ex and equipment purchasing has greatly lagged the overall chip and tech recovery, what the company says for its outlook will potentially be key for evaluating semiconductor companies on their expenses.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $1.31 billion in revenues for its October quarter, which is also its year-end with estimates of -$0.15 EPS and $4.8 billion in revenues.  While many analysts expect a recovery for 2010, with estimates at $0.35 EPS and $6.14 billion in revenues, there is the notion of what to say about valuation.  With a loss for 2009 and with a P/E ratio of 35 for next year, the bulls have to bet that the semiconductor companies are going to hike orders well above what the official expectations reflect.  At $12.40, this is up almost 50% from March 9 and up about 12% from June 30.

Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M) is also the first of the big retail plays for the week.  The issue will not be on last quarter so much, but what it calls for in the coming and current holiday quarter.  Estimates for the last quarter are -$0.10 EPS and $5.2 billion in revenues.  But next quarter estimates are $1.11 EPS and $7.67 billion in revenues.  Talking about all the if-then scenarios for retail is something we just won’t do because you have already endured it for a year.  But the stock was just upgraded at JPMorgan and its same store sales were “only” down 0.8% in October.  We are also getting to the point that the year-ago comparable store sales will not look like as much of a disaster as what we have seen for the last year.  Still, valuation has to be brought up as it trades at about 18-times a normalized current year earnings expectation.  Macy’s shares are up over 200% from March 9 and are up 63% since just June 30.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) is on deck Thursday.    Estimates are $0.37 EPS and $1.81 billion, but the current quarter we are in (next quarter estimates) for the key Holiday season is expected to be $0.59 EPS and $2.33 billion in revenues.  The issue here on valuation is that the stock trades at an expected 19.5-times Jan-2010 fiscal earnings and even about 16.5-times Jan-2011 estimates.  The good news for the sector is that the companies are getting to the point that the year-ago comparable store sales will not look like as much of a disaster as what we have seen for the last year.  Nordstrom’s shares are up over 150% from March 9 and are up over 70% since just June 30.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is on deck for Thursday morning.  The retail king of the recession and DJIA component is expected to post $0.81 EPS and $99.8 billion in revenues.  The company is no longer a guidance or same-store-sales champion, but estimates for the coming Holiday quarter we are now in are $1.12 EPS and almost $114.4 billion in revenues.  Wal-Mart has been an incredibly poor performer of a stock despite its status of being a recession winner.  Shares are not even up 10% from the March 9 close and are up about 6% from June 30.  The company did recently announce its expansion plans that seemed impressive, and the one issue that the company does have going for it now is that there is far less anti-Wal-Mart sentiment now that so much of the country has become its client base whether it was intended or not.

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is on deck for Thursday after the close.  Estimates are $0.40 EPS and $9.26 billion in revenues, and the coming December quarter estimates are $0.41 EPS and $9.67 billion in revenues.  If you just assume a meeting of estimates for the last quarter and the Q4 period for its fiscal Dec-2009 year, the Mouse House trades with a current year ratio of about 16-times earnings (and about 15.3-times 2010 estimates).  There are many moving parts here, and the Marvel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: MVL) deal is a drop in the bucket.  Disney shares are up 82% since the March 9 close and up 22% sine June 30.

Be advised that these Thomson Reuters can and likely will change some as the week goes on after analysts have made their last-minute changes.

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JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 8, 2009

Updated 2:00 PM EST: American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC) has traded higher all day and some are noting takeover chatter on this one.  We have yet to see anything credible, but this is up close to 4% at $32.60.

Updated  11:57 AM EST  McGraw-Hill (NYSE:MHP) may be close to selling BusinessWeek and would only keep the brand and website. All editor staff members would be let go.  (WWD)

Updated  11.47 AM EST  Riverbed (NASDAQ:RVBD) may be a takeover target for Juniper (NASDAQ:JNPR)  (Barron’s )

Updated 11.44 AM EST  GE (NYSE:GE) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are still in talks about NBCU with a target for a decision in three weeks.  (CNBC)

Update 11:00… Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is up another 9% today at $3.64.  The trader chat is that management and employees may have had no wrongdoing in the botched test data.  This is also not the first day of this, and we are not prepared to pan it or endorse it as it seems too soon.

Real estate developer Young Woo stands to make millions off his purchase of the AIG (NSYE:AIG) building  (TheDeal)

The FDIC is questioning the results of a review of the Citigroup (NYSE:C) management team.  (WSJ)

Chinese firm Sichuan Tengzhong could buy Hummer from GM as early as today (MarketWatch)

Vivendi will sell its 20% of NBCU, probably to GE (NYSE:GE) (The Street)

Sales of the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone and iPod are causing global  flash memory shortages. (AppleInsider)

Charges against two former Bear Stearns executives could hurt JPMorgan’s (NYSE:JPM) bottom line (Fortune)

IRS workers may have had a role in questionable refunds. (Forbes)

The US may start an antitrust probe into the Live Nation (LYV) merger with TicketMaster (TKTM)  (DealBook)

Douglas A. McIntyre

We have provided some longer-term support and resistance levels for Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) now that its shares are hitting near-term highs after earnings.

Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX) is acting like a leveraged Alcoa based on its trading up 10%.  You can also see how most of the related metals stocks followed Alcoa higher last night.

Labopharm Inc. (NASDAQ: DDSS) is having a repeat gain after yesterday’s pop.

DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is back on the pre-market most active movers list.

Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is continuing its mystery rally, despite the risks of implosion.

• Here is some trading color on Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ: PANL) after its late-day run on Wednesday.

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JON C. OGG
October 8, 2009