So far this morning we have sales figures from Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Target Inc. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Stein Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: SMRT), Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA), Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE), and Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ).

Costco reported same-store sales growth of 4%, compared with a Thomson/Reuters estimate of 5.1% growth. Total sales rose 7%, and same-store sales excluding gasoline and currency effects rose 5% in April.

Target reported same-store sales growth of 1.1%, far short of an estimate of 2.8%.

Macy’s same-store sales growth came in at 1.2%, against an estimate of 1.9% growth.

Gap stores reported same-store sales fell -2% in April, compared with an estimated drop of -0.8%.

Stage Stores posted a same-store sales drop of -1%, much better than a forecast drop of -4.8%.

Limited Brands posted same-store sales growth of 6%, nicely above the estimate of 4%. The company also raised the lower end of its EPS guidance for the first quarter from $0.35 to $0.38. The top end of the range remained at $0.40.

Stein Mart posted a smaller-than-expected same-store sales drop of -1.6%, compared with the consensus estimate of -2.1%. For the first quarter same-store sales were down -0.4%.

Wet Seal reported that same-store sales dropped by -9.6% in April, compared with an estimated decline of -9%. For the first quarter, same-store sales are down -7.7% and total sales are down -5.2%.

Buckle posted same-store sales growth of 1% in April, compared with an estimate of 0.9%. Total sales grew 9.9% during the first quarter.

Zumiez reported same-store sales growth of 10.1% in April, compared with an estimate of 6.8% growth. Same-store sales for the first quarter rose 12.9% compared with the first quarter of 2011. Total sales rose 19.8% in April compared to April 2011.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 204points to 12,759.15 (-1.57%), the NASDAQ fell more than 40 points (-1.36%) to 2,910.32, and the S&P 500 fell -1.54% or nearly 21 points to 1,343.36.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) started as ‘buy’ at Nomura; Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) started as ‘neutral’ at UBS; lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) cut to ‘market perform’ at Bernstein; and Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Black Diamond Inc. (NASDAQ: BDE) is down -2.1% at $8.74; Fuel Tech Inc. (NASDAQ: FTEK) is up 0.18% at $5.61; Halcon Resources Corp. (NASDAQ: HK) is down -4.6% at $10.27; Verifone Systems, Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is up 7.5% at $50.03; Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) is up 2.7% at $46.79 after posting a new 52-week high of $47.42 earlier today; Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: IRDM) is up 10.8% at $8.20; Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI) is down -4.6% at $13.69; and Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) is up 4.7% at $43.43.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Vermillion Inc. (NASDAQ: VRML) is up more than 111% at $2.81. The medical device maker received a code-change approval from the American Medical Association that incorporates one of the company’s devices. More coverage here.

Encore Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: EBTX) is up more than 35% at $20.23 after posting a new 52-week high of $20.61 earlier this morning. The bank holding company has been acquired by privately held Cadence Bancorp for about $250 million ($20.62/share).

XOMA Corp. (NASDAQ: XOMA) is up about 30% at $1.89. The biopharmaceutical firm has announced pricing on a share offer of around 29.7 million shares and warrants.

Oncothyreon Inc. (NASDAQ: ONTY) is down nearly -41% at $4.98. The biopharma company reported a significant fourth-quarter EPS miss this morning, along with available cash that will keep the company in operation for about another 12 months.

Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc. (NASDAQ: ZLTQ) is down more than -32% at $7.50 after posting a new 52-week low of $7.46 earlier. The medical technology company posted a dismal fourth-quarter earnings report this morning.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger Gray & Christmas job-cut report
• 8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report
• 8:30 a.m. – Non-farm business productivity and unit labor costs report
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 3:00 p.m. – Consumer credit

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Paul Ausick

Some highlights:

• Costco sales rose 8%, but shares are flat shortly before noon.
• Macy’s posted a same-store sales jump of 4.6%, and the company’s shares hit a 52-week high of $38.38.
• TJX’s sales rose 9% and the shares posted a new 52-week high of $37.07.
• Ross Stores’ sales jumped 9% as well, and the company’s stock put up a new 52-week high of $54.27.
• Buckle’s same-store sales rose a whopping 14.8%, and the shares posted a new 52-week high of $48.43.
• Zumiez’s sales rose 14.2% in February and the stock put up a new 52-week high of $33.84.

The biggest change came from Gap Stores. The company posted a same-store sales jump of 4%, when analysts were expecting a shortfall of -1.4%. Shares posted a new 52-week high of $26.00, more than $2/share above the previous high.

Kohl’s and Wet Seal were the only stores on this list to show sales dips, but Wet Seal’s dip was only half what had been expected. Kohl’s was expected to break even, but same-store sales fell -0.8%.

Paul Ausick

Teen stores Buckle and Zumiez battered expectations, while Gap and Wet Seal both missed expectations badly.

Data from CNBC.

Limited Brands’ same-store sales rose 7%, compared with a consensus estimate of 4.4%. Net sales fell by -2.3%, however, from $893 million a year ago to $872.6 million. The company also announced a $2/share special dividend to be paid on December 23rd to shareholders of record on December 12th.

The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) reported third-quarter earnings this morning and posted an adjusted EPS loss of -$0.22, compared with a consensus estimate of an EPS loss of -$0.16. Same-store sales fell by -4% in November. Talbot’s has closed 35 store locations so far this year and plans to close a total of 110 locations by the end of its 2013 fiscal year.

Costco’s same-store sales rose 7%, excluding gasoline and currency effects. Including gasoline, sales were up 9%. Analysts were expecting a rise of 6.5%.

Target posted a same-store sales gain of 1.8% in November, but analysts were looking for a gain of 2.8%. The company’s CEO said that he expects December to offer a “competitive and promotional environment as consumers continue to focus on value.”

Macy’s same-store sales rose 4.8% last month, and total sales were up 5.3%. The consensus estimate for same-store sales was an increase of 4.1%.

Dillard’s posted a same-store sales jump of 3%, in-line with the average estimate.

Nordstrom reported November same-store sales rose 5.6%, compared with an average analyst estimate of 5%. Total sales rose nearly 12% in November.

Kohl’s reported that November same-store sales fell -6.2%, while analysts were expecting a 2% increase. The CEO called the results “disappointing,” and said that the company expects to benefit from customers seeking value during the remainder of the holiday shopping season.

Gap same-store sales fell by -5%, more than the analysts’ expectation of a -4.3% decline. The company’s CEO expects December to “to remain fiercely competitive and highly promotional.”

Ross posted a same-store sales increase of 5% in November, better than the 3.7% that analysts were expecting. The company said it expects a 3%-4% increase in December as well.

Penney’s same-store sales fell -2% in November, compared with a -1.6% decline expected by the analysts. Total sales also fell by nearly -6% in the month.

TJX reported same-store sales growth of 4%, in-line with the average estimate. The company’s CEO said that the store would have performed better but for the warmer weather which put off winter clothes buying.

Lululemon reported third-quarter earnings today, noting that same-store sales jumped 16% in the quarter. Shares are down more than -11% in the first half-hour of trading this morning. Here’s our coverage of the company’s earnings report.

Stage Stores reported same-store sales rose 2.3%, compared with an estimate for a flat month. Total sales rose 4.3%, and the company’s CEO said that the final week of the month was “very strong.”

Pier One released third quarter sales figures today, and same-store sales for the quarter ending November 27th rose 7%. The company said quarterly EPS would be $0.20-$0.21, compared with the consensus EPS estimate of $0.18. Same-store sales for the holiday weekend were up 10% over last year.

Paul Ausick

We have September same-store sales from Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT, Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI), Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ), and The Buckle, Inc. (NYSE: BKE).

Target reported September same-store sales up 5.3%, and total sales up 6.5% from September 2010. Analysts were expecting growth of 3.9%. For the year-to-date, same-store sales at Target are up 3.4% year-over-year, compared with a 2.1% year-to-date rise in 2010 over 2009.

Macy’s posted a jump of 4.9% in September same-store sales, and an overall increase of 5.3%. Analysts were expecting a same-store sales increase of 4.4%. The company’s CEO is buoyant, ” We are feeling quite confident that we will continue to gain market share as we head toward the holiday selling season.” Year-to-date, same-store sales are up 5.6% and total sales are up 6.1%. Macy’s also said it expects both third- and fourth-quarter sales to be at the high end of the 4%-4.5% guidance the company has already issued.

Nordstrom reported a jump of 10.7% in September same-store sales and a total sales increase of 16.3%. Analysts had been expecting a same-store increase of 5.2%

J.C. Penney was among those that missed estimates. The company reported that same-store sales in September were down -0.6% and total sales were off an even worse -3.6%. Analysts had been expecting a same-store increase of 0.6% for the month. The store noted that sales of children’s apparel were among its better performing divisions, no surprise given the back-to-school shopping season.

Dillard’s posted a 4% rise in same-store sales for September, and a total sales increase of 3%. Analysts had been expecting a same-store boost of 3.3%. On a regional basis, the store said that sales were at the average company trend for the midwest, slightly below trend in the east, and below trend for the west. That doesn’t sound like upbeat forecast for the holiday season.

Limited stores posted an 11% jump in September same-store sales, more than double the expected rise of 4.6%. Total sales for the month rose 11% as well, and year-to-date sales are up nearly 12%.

Gap was another store that recorded a drop in same-store sales. The decrease came in a -4%, worse than expectations of -3.8%. International sales were hit the hardest, down -13% year-over-year.

Stage Stores also showed a decline in September same-store sales. The drop totaled -0.7% versus an expected gain of 0.3%.

Zumiez blasted through expectations of a 3.2% increase in same-store sales, posting a gain of 10.1%. The company raised its guidance for third-quarter sales and now expects EPS to rise from $0.37-$0.39 to $0.40-$0.41.

The Buckle posted a September same-store sales gain of 10.3%, far better than expectations of 3.8%. Total sales rose 13% year-over-year, and year-to-date same-store sales are up 8.7%.

The only retailer expected to see a double-digit rise in same-store sales for the month was Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), and it didn’t disappoint, posting a 12% gain. But Nordstrom, Limited, Zumiez, and Buckle were all big positive surprises with their double-digit sales growth. J.C. Penney, Gap, and Stage Stores continue to struggle.

If there’s a signal here for the coming holiday season, it’s that maybe the US economy isn’t as bad as all the other signals indicate. Or it could be that consumers spent money on needed school clothes and supplies, but are not going to be such free spenders later this year.

Paul Ausick

Costco put up a 14% rise in sales, compared with an estimate from Thomson Reuters of 12.7%. Excluding gasoline and foreign exchange effects, same-store sales rose 8%. For the five week period, total revenue rose 18% to $8.69 billion. Year-to-date Costco’s same-store sales are up 9%; without gasoline and foreign exchange sales are up 6%.

Macy’s reported a same-store sales improvement of 6.7% in June, beating the company’s own expectations and those of analysts who had a consensus estimate of 5.1% growth. Total revenue rose by $166 million in June compared to the same period a year ago. For the first half of 2011, same-store sales rose 6.1%. The company also raised its guidance for its second quarter same-store sales, from an increase of 4% to an increase of 6%. For the full fiscal year, Macy’s boosted estimates from 4.3% to 4.8%.

Limited Brands posted a same-store sales increase in June of 12%, far better than estimates of 3.8%. Total sales rose to $1.08 billion in the period. Sales at the company’s Victoria’s Secret stores rose 17% in the month, while sales at Bath & Body Works stores rose 5%.

Target’s same-store sales for the period rose 4.5%, beating Thomson Reuters estimates of a 3.2% improvement. Total sales rose 5.7%, to $6.26 billion.

Stage Stores’ same-store sales rose 1.8%, slightly better than expectations of a gain of 1.5%. Total sales rose 3.4% to $134 million for the period.

The numbers are good, but not necessarily predictive of performance in the second half of the year. A lot of markdowns drew in a lot of shoppers during the period. Next up, the back-to-school season.

Paul Ausick

The number of stores reporting monthly sales has fallen by three, as Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), Aeropostale inc. (NYSE: ARO), and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) will no longer report monthly sales. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) stopped reporting monthly sales more than a year ago.

Among the stores that continue to report monthly sales, the trend was mostly higher, even though bad weather in the first half of February weighed on overall results. Expectations for overall retail sales in February were for a gain of 3.6% in same-store sales compared with February 2010.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) same-store sales fell -3% in February 2011, compared with February 2010. Expectations were for a drop of -0.9%. Net sales fell from $838 million to $821 million.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) same-store sales rose 1.8%, compared with estimates of 2.2%. Net sales also rose 2.4%. The company noted that the Easter holiday, which is three weeks later this year, will affect March sales.

Dillard Department Stores Inc. (NYSE: DDS) same-store sales fell -1%, compared with analysts’ expectations of a gain of 2.5%. Sales also fell -1%.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) same-store sales rose 5.8%, above analysts’ estimates of 3.7%. Sales up 5.9%. Store expects same-store sales up in March-April by 3%.

Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD) same-store sales were up 12%, more than analysts’ predictions of 8.5%. Victoria’s Secret stores up 15%, and Bath & Body Works stores up 10%.

Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI) same-store sales down -7.2%, where analysts had expected a gain of 2.5%. Sales down 5.1%. The company blamed bad weather for weak sales in first half of the month.

Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) same-store sales rose 8.9% in fourth quarter and total sales up from $396 million to $427 million.

TJX Cos. (NYSE: TJX) same-store sales rose 3%, compared with estimates of 2.8%. Sales rose 3% to $1.5 billion.

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) reported same-store sales rose 12.8% in February, far better than predictions of 4.2%. Sales rose 18.3% at the company’s 401 stores.

Family Dollar shares are off about -1.5% in early trading this morning. Dillard’s shares are down more than -6%. Macy’s stock is up more than 1.5%, Pier 1 shares are up nearly 6%, and Zumiez shares are up nearly 8%.

Paul Ausick

Is Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) on the verge of losing its"coolness" with its young audience?  Maybe the woes at home with momand dad are finally tricking down to the youngsters.  The clothingretailer said that September same-store-sales were down a whopping 14% (total company sales dowmn 7% too)and it issued an earnings warning.  Its Hollister brandcomparable sales were down 20% and its Ruehl comparable sales were down24%.  Its stock is down almost 8% at $29.95, and that is a 52-week low.

Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) posted same-store-sales of -15.6%.  Eventhough the estimate was -13%, this is hardly any sign that things aregetting better.  Shares are down about 70% over the last year.  MommaPhelps isn’t making a huge difference yet.  Shares are down less than 1% at $4.13.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is still looking like its new management team isin for a long slow ride.  Its same-store-sales for September fell 11%,worse than estimates of about -8.5%.  We have criticized this companyover and over for its OLD NAVY brand which should officially change itsname to "OLD LAMIE."  OLD LAMIE’s comparable sales fell 24%.  Open noteto management from 24/7 Wall St.: "Spin that crummy OLD LAMIE brand off to holders, bring in anentirely new team with a 2-year turnaround as a re-brand with all of those giant storeleases."  It would seem that not even the homeless want to wear this brand.  Shares are down less than 1% at $15.25.

The troubles are continuing at Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) afterthe troubled retailer said September same store sales fell by 11.7%.It further noted that if recent sales trends continue it will missearnings estimates for the quarter and second half of its fiscal year.  Amazingly enough, shares are up over 4% at $2.19.

Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI) issued an earnings warning.  In fact itis "significantly" going to miss earnings after it said that its samestore sales fell by 13.6% in September.  That now means that a losswill be heading its way rather than a small positive earnings.  Shares are up more than 1% at $10.52.

What is almost funny or absurd is that some of these stocks are tradinghigher with the broad market this morning on hopes that all of therecent interventions and government efforts will help to keep therecession from getting out of hand.  Even with these stocks all being down so much from their 52-week highs,the rally seen in some of these sort of brings to mind rewarding aperson who totaled your car because you wanted a new ride.

Jon C. Ogg
October 9, 2008

• Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)… imagine if the company got Hector Ruiz to leave.
• American Greetings (NYSE: AM)…again.
• AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN)… new entrant.
• Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC)
• ChipMOS (NASDAQ:IMOS)
• Corp. Office Property (NYSE: OFC)
• Cryptologic (NASDAQ: CRYP)
• Diebold (NYSE:DBD)
• Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO)
• Group 1 Auto (NYSE: GPI)
• Infinera Corp. (NASDAQ: INFN)
• Introgen (NASDAQ:INGN)
• Japan Smaller Cap Fund (NYSE: JOF)
• Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR)
• Legget & Platt (NYSE: LEG)
• Martha Stewart (NYSE: MSO)
• Marvell Tech (NASDAQ:MRVL)
• Mattel (NYSE:MAT)
• McClatchy (NYSE:MNI)
• Micron Tech (NYSE:MU)
• NGAS Resources (NASDAQ:NGAS)
• Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT)
• Owens Corning (NYSE:OC)
• Omnicare (NYSE:OCR)
• Prestige Brand (NYSE: PBH)
• PC-Tel (NASDAQ:PCTI)
• Ruth’s Chris (NASDAQ:RUTH)
• SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)
• Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX)
• Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO)
• Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN)
• World Fuel Services (NYSE:INT)
• U-Store-It (NYSE:YSI)

Retail Stocks on 52-week lows: Ann Taylor (NYSE:ANN), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), Borders Group (NYSE:BGP), Bon Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT), Chico’s FAS (NYSE:CHS), Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL), Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), Macy’s (NYSE: M), Office Max (NYSE:OMX), Petsmart (NASDAQ:PETM), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)

Financial stocks on 52-week lows: Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Canseco (NYSE: CNO), Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG), MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM)… urgh!  When does it stop?

Airlines/Transports on 52-week lows:  Airtran Holdings (NYSE: AAI)…again.  Did they launch a Friends Die Free rewards plan?  Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL), Fedex (NYSE:FDX), Mesa Air (NASDAQ:MESA), Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA)… near $100 oil is a real pain.

Hotels Hitting 52-week lows: Host Hotels (NYSE: HST), Lasalle Hotel (NYSE: LHO), Starwood Hotels (NYSE:HOT), Sunstone Hotel (NYSE: SHO), Wydham Worldwide (NYSE:WYN).  Maybe these all wish they could get the private equity buyers back in the sector.  If only they could still borrow.

These CEO’s new year’s resolutions are all the same: "In 2008 I want to keep my stock off the 52-week low lists."

Jon C. Ogg
December 28, 2007