AON Corporation (NYSE: AON) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Reiterated Outperform with $26 target at Credit Suisse.
Digital Realty (NYSE: DLR) Started as Sell at Cantor Fitzgerald.
Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Henry Schein, Inc. (NASDAQ: HSIC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) Started as Buy with $230 target at Stern Agee.  (LINK: FULL DETAILS)
Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack Inc. (NYSE: PBY) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) Started as Underweight at Barclays.
Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU) downgraded to Hold at RBS and Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
Sunoco Logistics, LP (NYSE: SXL) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Thor Industries, Inc. (NYSE: THO) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Sell at Brean Murray.
Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) Cut to Underperform at Needham (LINK: FULL SUMMARY).

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) added to Strong Buy List at Zacks.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE: BIP) reinstated as Outperform with $32 target at Credit Suisse.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).
Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Neutral at Janney.
Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to positive at Susquehanna.
Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) Cut to Neutral at Janney.
Joy Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) Started as Equalweight at Morgan Stanley.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).
OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.
Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE: USM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 target at Argus.

We were also given a new updated list of the prized Gabelli Focus Five List showing that all five positions were new positions as special situation stocks that the firm feels are undervalued to the market expectations.  This list outperformed in the last quarter and has significantly outperformed the S&P going back to the 2006 inception.

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Retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), and most others depend on shipments of goods from Asia to stock their shelves year-round, but especially at holiday time.

Container shippers Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW) and Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC), and other privately held shippers such as AP Moeller-Maersk and China’s state-controlled COSCO, have been battling an over-supply of vessels which has driven down day rates and earnings for the world’s shippers. COSCO, for example, reported first-half earnings down -31.5% from a year ago and expects domestic demand for container shipments to be lower in the second half of the year.

There have also been reports that an alliance of Pacific Ocean shippers has substantially reduced its cargo capacity for manufactured Chinese goods as the country’s manufacturing engine has stalled. The Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles receive about 40% of US container cargoes, and both have seen a drop in shipments. Long Beach cargoes fell -6.5% in August from the July level.

The National Retail Federation comes down on the side of a reasonably healthy 2011 holiday season. According the NRF’s latest report, July cargoes rose 6% over June’s but were still down -4% from July 2010.  The estimate for August cargoes is essentially flat with last year.

The NRF sees the 2011 numbers as a positive sign because last year’s cargo shipments were brought forward from September and October as US retailers feared a container shortage if they waited. The federation expects September shipments to be 11.8% higher than last September and October shipments to rise 9.5% year-over-year. Even November and December shipments are projected to rise.

Even the NRF is cautious though. The relatively strong August and September cargo numbers are not going to translate into big profits for either shippers or retailers: “The third quarter will be positive for the ocean carriers and retailers but that will turn into negative growth for the next two to three quarters thereafter.” The third quarter is back-to-school time for retailers and holiday shipping time for cargo carriers. What the NRF is saying is that the 2011 holiday season is going to be weak for retailers.

What at first looked like a disagreement over the coming holiday season, now really looks like an agreement arrived at in different ways. Looking only at signals from the shipping industry, reduced shipping volumes mean fewer goods on retailers’ shelves at holiday time. Looking only at shipping signals from the NRF, everything’s rosy. But if the NRF says that growth will be negative in the fourth quarter for both shippers and retailers, then that’s the same thing as saying the shippers’ signals are correct.

Given the weak US economy, the lack of consumer confidence, and now the weak outlook for goods coming in from Asia, any growth forecast for holiday sales must certainly be taken with a grain of salt.

Paul Ausick

Container shipping companies, unlike the dry bulk shippers DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (NYSE: GNK), Excel Maritime Carriers, Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), and others, are mostly privately held or traded only lightly over-the-counter in the US. The world’s largest container shipper is Denmark’s AP Moeller-Maersk, which is expected to see profits fall by -25% this year as container rates have collapsed. Two publicly traded container shippers are Hong Kong-based Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW) and Greece-based Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC).

For the shippers, part of the problem is an over-supply of ships. The container fleet has grown 17% since 2007 and new orders equal nearly 28% of existing supply. Dry bulk shippers have placed orders that would increase capacity by 36%, so the container shippers are a bit more cautious than the bulkers.

The main reason for the slowdown in container shipping is wariness on the part of retailers for the 2011 holiday season. Retail profits in the second quarter gained an average of 11%, the smallest increase in two years. That was due primarily to steeper discounts on goods as retailers cleared out inventories in the quarter to make room for the back-to-school season.

By and large back-to-school customers showed up as hoped. Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) saw its total sales rise 5.4% in August compared to August 2010. Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) posted higher sales as well, and would have done better except for Hurricane Irene. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has raised its full-year profit outlook, but most of that is due to increasing sales overseas.

But as news about the US economy and unemployment continue to dominate the front pages, there is some concern that skittish customers will hold back on holiday shopping until retailers put out their markdowns. And uncertainty about customers’ willingness to spend is dampening enthusiasm among retailers as well.

The National Retail Federation acknowledges the slowdown in shipping, but notes that last year holiday merchandise was shipped early as shippers feared a container shortage would hamper deliveries. The group expects September cargoes to jump by 10.4% over September 2010 and October shipping to rise 8%.

A hugely successful holiday season doesn’t appear to be in the cards for US retailers, but no one expects the kind of retail smackdown we saw in 2008. That’s should be some comfort to retailers.

Paul Ausick

Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) is up 10.5% premarket on moderate volume to $54.60, within a 52-week range of $26.50-$50.95. The company was reiterated at a buy with a $60 price target by Argus.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is up 2% premarket to $76.40, relative to a 52-week range of $53.41-$75.94. The company reported a same-store sales increase of 17%

Seaspan Corporation (NASDAQ: SSW) is down 3% premarket to $20.25 premarket, relative to a 52-week range of $9.30-$21.33. Shares of SSW were downgraded to underperform at BofA/ML.

Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) raised targets as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
AmSurg Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSG) Cut price/estimates as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) Reiterated Buy and $67 target at BofA/ML.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Strong Buy and $430 target at S&P Equity Research (late yesterday call).
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $60 at Argus.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Maintained Buy and $28 target at BofA/ML.
Costamare Inc. (NASDAQ: CMRE) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $21 at BofA/ML.
Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC) Maintained Underperform and $6.50 target at BofA/ML.
France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Sell at RBS.
Northeast Utilities (NYSE: NU) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $41 at Argus.
Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN) Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

One type of shipper that could benefit fairly quickly is dry bulk, the massive carriers that haul coal, iron ore, and other raw materials. The carriers include DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), and Genco Shipping & Trade Ltd. (NYSE: GNK). The Baltic Dry Index, BDI, is recovering slightly from a very low 1,064. As coal is required in Japan to generate electricity no longer available from the damaged nuclear reactors, dry bulk rates from Australia and from the west coast of the US could rise. The rises will be limited by the amount of coal Japan requires and the amount that dry bulk terminals can handle. Terminals and coal shippers on the east coast of the US could also benefit as coal cargoes bound for Europe could be diverted to Japan and additional ships put into service.

Container shippers like A.P. Moeller Maersk (OTC: AMKBF), Danaos Corp.(NYSE: DAC), and Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW) could see a slight slowdown in shipping until Japanese manufacturers get back to work. That process will probably be slower than anticipated.

Crude oil carriers like Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) and Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NYSE: NAT) should see a pick-up as more crude cargoes are sent to Japan to help fuel electricity generation plants. Demand will be a function of how quickly Japan’s refineries can come back on-line, and the length of time the Japanese must depend on crude oil to fuel their generators. Another possibility is that refined products would need to be imported if re-opening the refineries is delayed for long.

Japan’s crude stocks stood at 169 days at the end of December 2010, according to Balkans.com. The country won’t want to run down its stocks and have to replenish them at higher crude prices, but by judiciously calling on its stocks, the country could mitigate some of the expenses from buying and shipping additional supplies of crude.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers include Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Teekay LNG Partners, L.P. (NYSE: TGP), and Golar LNG Ltd. (NASDAQ: GLNG). Japan is already the world’s largest importer of LNG and it is reasonable to expect the country to receive more in the days ahead. In the longer term, it could be that Japan decides to replace at least some of its nuclear generation with gas-fired generation. But that decision is still months away in all likelihood.

The lightly traded Guggenheim Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA) is up nearly 2% today, and Teekay LNG Partners and Golar are both up about the same amount. Most of the other shippers are trading slightly up as well, with only Dry Ships down slightly.

Paul Ausick

A third possibility is that China’s export tax rebate brought forward a good deal of future exports. Statistics are not yet available for July, but in June traffic at China’s ten top container shipping ports fell by nearly 2% according French consultancy Alphaliner. Merchandise exports reached an all-time high of $137.4 billion in June, as exporters rushed to meet the July 15th expiration of export tax rebates on commodities like steel and other metal products.

Contributing to the record numbers were backlogs that developed as carriers such as Danaos Corp. (NYSE:DAC), Seaspan Corp. (NYSE:SSW), and A.P. Moeller Maersk (OTC:AMKBF) were slow in getting their fleets back in the water following the recession.

The Global Port Tracker report issued by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates indicates that US retailers shipped early to avoid dealing with additional container ship shortages. The month of July “is likely to be the peak shipping month for 2010 rather than the traditional rush of holiday season merchandise in October.

Through June, imports at US ports totaled an estimated 6.9 million twenty-foot-equivalent units, called TEUs. The annual estimate for 2010 is 14.5 million TEUs, up 15% from a dismal 2009, when 12.7 million TEUs were shipped. In July, an estimated 1.38 million TEUs arrived at the nation’s ports, up 25% from a year ago.

All those imported goods did not translate into increased retail sales. Same-store sales growth was 2.9% in July, below estimates of 3.1%, and retailers are hoping for a solid back-to-school season to boost sales going into the end of the year.

Chinese currency policy and Chinese consumers do have a real effect on US economic growth. But the US consumer drives the country’s economy, and consumers are still wary over jobs, credit, and stagnant wages for those who do have jobs.

Paul Ausick

Containerships are facing nearly the opposite problem — a jump in demand that is absorbing all but about 2.5% of available capacity even as new containerships are launched. From a peak of more than 240 ships available in March 2009, only 44 carrier-operated ships are now available. That’s good news for container shippers like A.P. Moeller Maersk (OTC: AMKBF), Danaos Corp. (NYSE:DAC), and Seaspan Corp. (NYSE:SSW). Dry bulk shippers Dryships Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS), Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (NYSE:GNK), and Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX) are stumbling.

Danish shipper Maersk, the world’s largest container shipper, today raised its 2010 earnings forecast, predicting that it would earn more than the $3.5 billion in profit it saw in 2008. In 2009, the company lost $1.31 billion. Maersk includes an accounting gain from a share sale in China, but excludes a $1.2 billion gain from sale of its Netto food stores to the UK division of retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT). Once the Netto sale is approved by UK regulators, it too will add to Maersk’s bottom line for 2010.

Where day rates for dry bulk vessels have fallen steadily, demand for container vessels is rebounding strongly from 2009 lows, both in volume and in rates. German container shipper TUI AG recently raised its outlook for 2010, and Taiwan’s Evergreen Group has ordered 10 new container ships.

Container shipping from Asia to Europe rose 21% year-over-year in May 2010. Shipments from Europe were down 6.3%. Traffic from Europe to North America 15.8% in May, good but nowhere near the 25.7% growth in April. From North America to Europe, traffic was up 13.2%, a bit short of the 14.8% growth in April.

Container ships carry mostly finished goods in those 20-foot boxes we’ve all grown so used to seeing. Dry bulk carriers haul mostly raw commodities like iron ore, coal, and petroleum. A slow-down in dry bulk shipping, reflected in the BDI, points to a slow down in base-level manufacturing of such things as steel. If steel manufacturing is falling (and it is), then demand for iron ore and coal will also fall as steel makers use up inventory and slow production.

On the other end of the manufacturing chain, products that use steel lag behind commodity pricing simply because it takes time to make the stuff. Container shippers are thriving now on orders to manufacturers that were made months ago, when the overall outlook for the global economy were much rosier than they are now.

If global GDP growth projections begin to soften, as they probably should, demand for goods will also weaken and container shippers may find themselves in the same position as the commodity shippers.

Container shippers and dry bulk shippers are trading about flat today, except for Genco, down about -2.5%, which has announced that it is selling 3 of 16 dry bulk vessels that it just bought and hasn’t even taken delivery of yet.

Paul Ausick

Here were Cramer’s TOP 9 STOCKS FOR 2007, with a call broken down for each one.  Borat would say HI FIVE on some and NOT SO NICE on others, as would be expected.  Cramer’s 14,582 year-end DJIA target…..Friday’s close was 13,365.87……although we did hit 14,279.96 on OCT11, 2007.  Cramer also gave a batch of price targets on most of theDJIA components:

• Batch 1 (AA, MO, AIG, AXP, BA, T)
• Batch 2 (CAT, C, KO, DD, XOM, GE)
• Batch 3 (MMM, GM, HPQ, HON, HD, INTC, AMD, SHLD)

Cramer’s Stock Picks FOR 5-YEARS OUT:

• Cramer’s First Pick For Five Years Out: First Solar (FSLR, SPWR)
• Cramer’s Second Pick For Five Years Out: MedcoHealth (MHS)
• Cramer’s Third Pick For Five Years Out: Transocean (RIG)

SOME LISTS: His list of recession proof stocks compared to ours.  We are updating our
Defensive Stocks For The First Half Of 2008" currently.  Cramer gave a huge list of companies he expects to benefit from the alternative energy traders (SGR, FWLT, BWA, OMG, FSLR, FTEK, WFR, TTEK, ZOLT, BP, SPWR, CY, CPST, ITRI)… Jim Cramer pondered which US companies China would want to acquire, about 3 months before sovereign funds started buying into US companies.  Cramer’s mortgage winners and losers…… Here were his MAJOR BULL MARKET STOCK PICKS(MHS, CVS, AGN, CELG, GENZ, CEPH, RIG, HAL, EMR, CAT, CMI, UTX, KO,PEP, CL, GS, SKS, VFC, UNP, CSX, BA), some of which are DJIAcomponents.  Cramer produced a "MUST OWN" list of stocks, many of whichare up significantly and some are down (WHR, BDK, ATI, BGC, HON, ASD, JCI, MDR, FWLT, CAT, TEX, DE, QCOM)

Cramer spent lots of time on International stocks that most US investors might not cover on their own.  He made a big call on Mercadolibre (MELI) (also BIDU, GOOG) with some emphasis on buying immediately, right before it made a huge run up.  Cramer’s Hidden Video Game Investment Perfect World (PWRD, ATVI, ERTS, VIA) was one he said could run more than 50% for 2008.  Cramer made 5 TOP CHINESE PICKS (CEO, CHL, SSW, FMCN, BIDU, GMR).  We’ll see in 2008 if any of his Canadian OIL TRUSTS get acquired in 2008 (BTE, CNE, PGH, PVX, PWE, AAV, GDI).  Cramer also went over his top picks from Europe for American investors (TOT, SI, ABB, PHG, BF)

ON TECHNOLOGY:  Cramer’s NEW HORSEMEN OF TECH…. will the list change in 2008???  Did Cramer Say $1,000.00 on Google, Or Is It $600.00? That was in May 2007.  Cramer Gave Monster Price targets to Baidu.com (BIDU, GOOG).. will these targets change in 2008? Cramer was very positive on all the GPS stocks,although we’d expect that Cramer will change his tune in 2008 now thatthe holiday madness is behind us (GRMN, UA, CROX, NVT, TRMB, SIRF).

Would it be fair not to include the Barron’s attack on Cramer from summer for those of you that criticize his every word?

ON WARREN BUFFETT…. Cramer noted that BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT in Canada may be the next Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK/A) NYSE: BAM). Cramer reviewed 10 Warren Buffett stocks for analysis and then reviewed 10 More Warren Buffett stocks:

• Stock Tickers: BRK/A, BNI, KO, PG, WMT, USG, AXP, WFC, MCO, JNJ, COP
• Stock Tickers: BRK/A, UNP, USB, MTB, ASD, NSC, WLP, UNH, IR, HRB

Will his buyout of ALCOA (AA) prediction come true in 2008??? Cramer gave a list of stocks that had bought back so much stock that they might be taking themselves private.

Join our free email distribution list for other Cramer calls or for updates we send out regarding IPO’s, spin-offs, restructuring, reorganization, activist investors and more.

Happy New Years from the 247WallSt.com team!

Jon C. Ogg
December 31, 2007