The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 11 points to 12,705.41 (-0.09%), the NASDAQ rose more than 11 points (0.4%) to 2,859.68, and the S&P 500 rose 0.11% or nearly 1.5 points to 1,325.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE: EW) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) cut to ‘neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) started as ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is up nearly 24% at $66.30; Education Management Corp. (NASDAQ: EDMC) is down -17% at $21.19; Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is down -0.6% at $24.62; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 2.2% at $60.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $61.93 earlier today; Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is up 3.2% at $3.27; Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) is down -3.9% at $5.85; Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) is down -17.5% at $24.43; Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) is up 0.35% at $63.29; Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is down -1.2% at $42.48; Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is down -0.3% at $38.51; Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) is down -0.3% at $15.71; and Viacom Inc. (NASDAQ: VIAB) is down -0.9% at $46.53.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is up nearly 18% at $12.49 after posting a new post-IPO high of $12.91 earlier today. The social games company got a big boost from Facebook’s IPO filing. Our coverage is here.

MediciNova Inc. (NASDAQ: MNOV) is up nearly 31% at $2.47. The company received a favorable patent notice for a multiple sclerosis treatment device.

Response Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: RGDX) is up more than 27% at $1.50. The drug maker announced the private placement of about 5.3 million shares at $1.50/share, about 28% higher than last night’s closing price.

BioScrip Inc. (NASDAQ: BIOS) is up more than 15% at $6.73. The pharmacy services provider has sold a portion of its assets to Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) for $225 million.

Ur-Energy Inc. (AMEX: URG) is down more than -13% at $1.22. The uranium miner has issued 1.5 million shares of new stock to agents who will attempt to sell at CDN$1.00.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll report
• 10:00 a.m. – Factory orders
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing (services) index

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Paul Ausick

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Calpine Corporation (NYSE: CPN) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
CenturyLink, Inc. (NYSE: CTL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE: EW) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ: JDSU) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Nomura Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NMR) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (NYSE: GWW) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

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JON C. OGG

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) Raised to Buy with $37 target at Goldman Sachs.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Raised to Buy at Wunderlich.
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.

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JON C. OGG

Acme Packet, Inc. (NASDAQ: APKT) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; estimates and targets lowered after revenue warnings from Morgan Keegan and Wells Fargo.
Affymetrix Inc. (NASDAQ: AFFX) Raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Neutral at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Outperform with $500 target and raised estimates at Credit Suisse.
Crown Castle International Corp. (NYSE: CCI) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) added to the U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) Reiterated Buy with $94 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) Cut to Underperform by RBC Capital Markets.
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) Started as Underperform at National Bank.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Raised to Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) Raised to Overweight at Evercore Partners.

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JON C. OGG

Gold prices have gained about $60/ounce, about 3.6%. Silver prices are up roughly 9%. Copper prices are up by about 8.6%. Titanium prices are unchanged, steel prices have been drifting though more varieties appear to be selling at lower prices, and rare earth minerals vary widely depending on the particular mineral. Lanthanum oxides are selling for about $61/kilogram, while terbium oxide goes for $605/kilogram.

All stock data comes from Yahoo! Finance and current prices were gathered in the early afternoon today.

Of the companies we survey, all but one enjoys a higher stock price today than they did last month. The single exception is Molycorp, which is getting punished today for missing both EPS and revenue estimates. At yesterday’s closing price of $38.70, Molycorp’s share price was higher than it was a month ago.

More interesting, perhaps, were recent changes in median price targets. Only Nucor and Titanium’s price targets have remained the same in the last month. Two stocks, Newmont and Barrick, had their price targets raised and the other seven had price targets lowered.

Newmont’s target price was raised from $77 to $81. At the new target price and a current price of $70.41, Newmont’s implied gain is $10.59, or 15%. The stock put up a new 52-week high last week, and its forward P/E also rose from 10.2 to 11.47. In the past month, shares have gained more than $7, or 11%. The company’s pledge to raise dividends if gold price targets are met is another reason to look carefully at this stock.

Barrick’s target price was raised from $66.50 to $68. At the new target price and a current price of $52.61, Barrick’s implied gain is $15.39, or 29%. Shares are trading at less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $55.95. Over the past month, Barrick’s shares have gained 12%.

The largest drop in target price was settled on Molycorp, which saw its target price fall from $80- to $70. Even at that, the implied gain for the shares, based on today’s price of $34.04, is 106%. The wide gap is due not so much to any failure on Molycorp’s part but to what might be “irrational exuberance” for the stock by investors. There is also the fact that Molycorp’s mineral reserves tend to be heavy on the lower-priced rare earths and light on the higher-priced metals.

The largest percentage drop in target price was claimed by US Steel, which saw its target price fall from $40 to $34.50, nearly 14%. The company posted a new 52-week low on October 3rd. At the current price of $26.08, the implied gain is $8.42, or 32%. US Steel is widely expected to be acquired — and fairly soon — which is attracting short sellers in droves.

Freeport-McMoran’s target price fell from $55 to $53 in the past month, even though shares have added $5.05, or about 15%, in the same period. The implied gain based on the new target price and the current price of $39.83 is 33%. Freeport’s problem is that demand for copper might be stagnating or worse, given the construction slowdown in China.

Silver Wheaton’s target price fell from $51.50 to $49.50, while the share price has gained 17%. At the new target price and based on today’s price of $36.18, the implied gain here is 37%. There is plenty of headroom for Silver Wheaton’s share price to continue rising, but demand for silver will be the driver.

Alcoa’s target price dropped from $15.50 to $13 in the last month, even as the share price has risen by about 8%. At the new target price and based on the current price of $10.58, the implied gain in Alcoa stock is nearly 23%. Given that shares rose by 8% in the last month, anything’s possible, even that Alcoa may hit the lower target.

The target price for Steel Dynamics fell from $18 to $16, while share prices gained a substantial 23% in the same period. At the new target price and a current price of $13.51, the implied gain in the stock is 18%. EPS estimates for the current quarter have fallen by nearly -20% in the past month, following lowered guidance from the company.

Southern Copper’s target price fell from from $36.75 to $36.25 in the past month, even though the share price rose by 21%. At the new target and at the current price of $32.41, the implied gain for Southern Copper is nearly 12%.

Paul Ausick

Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Raised target to $30 from $28 at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Hold at Canaccord.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Started as Neutral at Lazard.
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Steven Madden, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) named Growth & Income stock of the day at Zacks.
Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) has a median target price of $40.00 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $23.52, for an implied gain of $16.48, or 41.2%. US Steel’s forward P/E is 6.46 and the company’s dividend yield is 0.90%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $18.85-$64.03, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above its 52-week low and 63% below the 52-week high. The huge difference between US Steel’s 52-week high and its current price indicates a substantial opportunity here, if the company can get its act together. It owns its own sources of iron ore and coke, so it is relatively insulated from the higher costs faced by many other steel makers. The company should be doing better than this, but it’s a tough market out there.

Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) has a median target price of $45.00 from 13 brokers. Shares traded today at $34.85, for an implied gain of $10.15, or 22.6%. Nucor’s forward P/E is 10.34 and the company’s dividend yield is 4.20%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $29.82-$49.24, and at today’s price that’s about 17% above the 52-week low and 29% below the 52-week high. Nucor stock recently took a hit when the company lowered third-quarter EPS estimates to $0.45-$0.55 compared with analysts’ expectation of $0.64. Demand for raw materials raises costs for Nucor, at the same time that demand in the US has fallen.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) has a median target price of $18.00 from 13 brokers. Shares traded today at $10.95, for an implied gain of $7.05, or 39.2%. Steel Dynamics’ forward P/E is 6.49 and the company’s dividend yield is 3.70%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $8.78-$20.70, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above the 52-week low and 47% below the 52-week high. Like Nucor, Steel Dynamics revised EPS expectations downward last month by at least a third compared with analysts expectations.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) has a median target price of $77.00 from 16 brokers. Shares are trading today at $63.24, for an implied gain of $13.76, or 17.9%. Newmont’s forward P/E is 10.2 and the company’s dividend yield is 1.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $50.05-$71.25, and at today’s price that’s about 26% above the 52-week low and 11% below the 52-week high. Newmont is the largest gold miner in the world and its dividend yield is also the highest among the miners. The company has committed to raising dividends if certain gold price targets are hit, making life even tougher for competitors.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) has a median price target of $66.50 from 20 brokers. Shares traded today at $46.93, for an implied gain of $19.57, or 29.4%. Barrick’s forward P/E is 7.67 and the company’s dividend yield is 1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $42.50-$55.95, and at today’s price that’s about 10% above the 52-week low and 16% below the 52-week high. Gold mining stocks have not been able to keep up with the rising price of gold mainly because the miners’ costs keep rising even as gold prices rise. Barrick is one of the lowest cost producers among the big gold mining companies, and that’s a real positive for the company.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Underperform and cut estimates at Credit Suisse.
Apollo Residential Mortgage, In (NYSE: AMTG) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
BMC Software Inc. (NYSE: BMC) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Boston Properties Inc. (NYSE: BXP) Reiterated Buy with $120 target at Argus.
Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Reiterated Buy with $28 target at BofA/ML.
Crawford & Co. (NYSE: CRD-B) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: FRAN) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Started as Buy at Jefferies; Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: NCI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Reiterated Buy with $104 target at BofA/ML.

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Forward PE multiples range from 6.7 to almost 12 and the return on equity (ROE) is as low as 3.6% to as high as 18.5%.  Five of these companies boast ROE’s greater than 8.5%.  Analysts estimate next year’s earnings will range from a 15% year-over-year increase to an increase of about 60%.  Most of these companies are expected to post an increase in next year’s earnings above 30%. Consensus target prices from analysts indicate that each of these have above-market upside from Thomson Reuters, with most looking to be above 20%.  Most of these companies also show a price to book ratio of 2.4 to 1 or lower.  Except where otherwise noted our source for all financial and performance data is Finviz.

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) is the largest of these companies with a market cap of $17.3 billion.  This is also one of our freshly featured “Top Stocks That Will Set Market Trends For This Summer” as it leads off in earnings season this coming week.  Its price to book ratio is 1.17 to 1, best of the lot.  With a consensus target price of $19.67 the shares have an implied greater than 20%.  Alcoa shares recently traded at $16.49 and its 52-week trading range is $9.86 to $18.44.  We do not expect this to occur, but we do have to admit that this was considered a loose takeover candidate in the recent past.  It also hit $40.00 before the recession.  Alcoa offers a very unexciting dividend of about 0.7%.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) may seem an odd fit in our base metals screen, but that is because of its metallurgical coal operations that feed the steel industry.  Technically it does actually lead the rest of our screened companies in three of our financial measures: forward P/E, analysts’ implied price upside, and analysts’ estimated earnings growth.  The reason or explanation may simply be because many estimates have not properly adjusted since its International Coal acquisition.  Our review was on a standalone basis and we always want to point out that estimates and projections can often lag by a quarter when M&A is in the mix.  The company’s forward price to earnings multiple is less than 7 as analysts see next year’s earnings growth of about 60%.  Again, consider the merger.  With a consensus target price of $39.28, the shares have an implied upside of more than 40%.  Arch Coal shares recently traded at $27.34 and its 52-week price range is $19.03 to $36.86.  After the acquisition was completed, S&P affirned a “BB-” corporate credit rating.

Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX) is second best among these companies with a low price to book ratio of 1.26 to 1.  It also trades at less than 9-times 2012 projected earnings from Thomson Reuters consensus data.  Unfortunately, Century is stingy when it comes to dividends.  Its $1.48 billion market cap makes Century the smallest of these companies.  Its consensus target price of $19.75 implies an upside greater than 24%.  The company’s shares recently traded at $15.87 and the 52-week trading range is $8.57 to $20.76.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) has a market cap of $13 billion making it the second largest company in this lot.  The manufacturing and sales company of steel and steel products actually has an unimpressive 3.6% return on equity (ROE) per the Finviz screen, which, if entirely accurate, screened out as the lowest among these companies.  It also pays a 3.6% dividend yield.  With a consensus target price of $50.38, the shares still have an implied upside of 23%.  Nucor shares recently traded at $40.82.  The 52-week price range is $34.48 to $48.40.  While it trades at 15.6-times 2011 earnings estimates, the multiple drops down to under 11-times the 2012 earnings estimates.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) is in an interesting place since it recently gave earnings and offered guidance which was technically a bit light.  Still, shares have recovered about 10% since its report and it seems that the valuations may be a part of the “why” that recovery has been seen.  The steel products operator has a price to book ratio of 1.62 to 1, third best among these companies.  With a consensus target price of $21.83, the shares have an implied upside of 34%.  That is actually the second highest among these companies. Shares of Steel Dynamics recently traded at $16.25.  The 52-week price range is $12.92 to $20.45. Steel Dynamics also pays a 2.5% dividend yield.

Worthington Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WOR) is one of the smaller companies with a market cap of just under $1.7 billion.  It also leads these companies with a 16.4% return on equity (ROE).  It also trades at about 13-times next year’s projected earnings.  With a consensus target price of $26 the shares of this metals processor have an implied upside of 12% to the consensus price target.  Worthington shares recently traded at $23.22.  The 52-week price range is $12.00 to $23.75.  Worthington’s dividend yield measures today at about 2.1%.

Having the term “value” does not imply immediate gains nor does it imply that there are no risks.  The market has also just recently enjoyed a great bounce.  When it comes to M&A and it when it comes to long-term investing it is the value segment that often outperforms the market and which can hold up better if and when the markets head south again. Earnings season is about to be underway and many of these figures may change in the coming weeks.

JON C. OGG

While most “book value” companies are trading at discounts for a reason, we only focused on the basic materials players which may actually grow through these uncertain times.  Each company offers an implied earnings growth scenario.  For next year, analysts expect healthy earnings growth ranging from Alcoa’s 14% to Arch Coal’s 56%.  We also only took companies that have lower price-to-earnings ratios ahead as well to filter out the companies in trouble.  Average trading volume for each of these companies exceeds one million shares daily.

We would also note that each of these shares is currently lower than the prior day’s close due to the global selling that has been seen.  That changes things only marginally, and value investors may get to see yet even more value as a result.  Except where otherwise noted, the source for all performance and financial data is Finviz.com.

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) boasts a price to book value of roughly 1.1, clearly best among this list of companies.  Its market cap is $16.4 billion.  Its forward P/E is 9.6.  Analysts look for next year’s earnings to top current year net by 14%. With a Thomson Reuters consensus target price of $19.95 per share, Alcoa has an implied upside of close to 30%.  In trading Wednesday, Alcoa’s shares closed at $15.29, down 0.52%.  The 52-week trading range is $9.73 to $18.44.

Here is what investors need to consider about Alcoa.  Investors always try to use this company as the first read each earnings season to make a determination about companies in general but they also use it to analyze the entire metals sector.  Alcoa has telegraphed growth and recovery ahead, even if it has a spotty record around earnings.  Alcoa has also been called a takeover target by some investment watchers. Alcoa peaked around $45.00 back in 2007 before the recession.

Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is tricky because it recently closed upon its acquisition of International Coal.  That throws a wrench in the machine, but we still wanted to show what the core company value is.  Arch sports a price to book ratio of roughly 1.9 and its market cap is $5.5 billion.  Its forward PE is less than 7, ranking it the best in this list of companies.  Analysts expect next year’s earnings to exceed current year earnings by more than 55%, the best expected earnings expansion among these six companies. Again, keep in mind that analysts often are extremely late to the party when it comes to interpolating other earnings into a merger mix.

With a Thomson Reuters consensus target price of $39.76, Arch Coal has an implied upside of more than 50%.  In Wednesday trading, Arch Coal’s shares closed at $25.84, down 0.69%. The 52-week price range is $18.81 to $36.86.  The merger will undoubtedly change the values and the outlook ahead and it is possible that the value here may change since the aggregate value of the merger was about $3.4 billion.  We still wanted to show this as the cheap buyer.