The company says the drop is due to “margin compression” that is the result of a mid-quarter drop in the market for flat-rolled steel while raw materials prices did not experience a concomitant decrease. This represents a sharp turnaround for Steel Dynamics, which had posted a much better-than-expected EPS return in the fourth quarter.

Iron ore prices have been drifting higher as demand picks up from China, but steel prices have been held down by an over-supply that steel makers are still trying to come to grips with.

Paul Ausick

The companies we examined were United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X), Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE), Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW), Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), and Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP).

Since November, gold prices have gained about 3%. Silver prices are essentially flat, and copper prices are up by about 5%. Titanium prices are about 6% lower, steel prices have been falling and are now about 7% lower than in November, and rare earth minerals exports from China were below expected levels in 2011, causing a price drop in the latter part of the year. Chinese production projections for 2012 are roughly equal to the 2011 production quota of 31,000 metric tons.

Newmont’s consensus target price has fallen from $81 in November to $77.92. At a current price this morning of $62.98, Newmont’s implied gain is 23.7%. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained more than 5%, with a 12-month share price gain of about 6.8%. The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.35, a jump of 133%, following a pledge to raise dividends if gold price targets were met. The company’s dividend yield is now 2.3%.

Barrick’s target price has also been cut, from $68 to $64.72. At its current price of $49.62, Barrick’s implied gain is 30.4%. Year-to-date shares are up about 9.6%, but for the preceding 12 months, Barrick’s stock is down 5.6%. Shares are trading at less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $55.95. Over the past month, Barrick’s shares have gained 12%.

Molycorp’s target price fell from $70 to $52.83. At a current price of $28.68, the potential upside is a whopping 84%. Molycorp’s shares have lost about 38% in the past 12 months, though since January shares have risen about 20%. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.41 on revenue of about $135 million after markets close today. The company has begun a phased launch of its new manufacturing facility and expects to produce 19,050 metric tons of oxides by the end of the third quarter. That would be good news if prices weren’t falling.

US Steel’s target price remained nearly flat from November’s $34.50 to today’s $35.21. At the current price of $28.19, the implied gain is 24.9%. Falling steel prices in the fourth quarter hurt all steel makers. Global crude steel production grew 6.8% in 2011, which combined with a slower growing economy depressed prices. Global production was down -7.8% year-over-year in January, which could herald a comeback in pricing.

Nucor’s target price has risen from about $45 to $48 since November. At the current share price of $43.44, the potential upside is 10%. Two recent analyst downgrades have chopped share price gains, but Nucor’s stock is still up nearly 10% since January.

Freeport-McMoran’s target price actually rose from$53 to $55.28 in the last three months. At the current share price of $43.89, the potential upside for the stock is 26%. Freeport had a lousy fourth quarter, due mainly to labor strife in Australia. Slowly rising copper prices should help, but production may have to be reined in to keep prices moving up.

Silver Wheaton’s consensus target price fell from $49.50 to $47.80, while the share price has gained more than 26% in three months. At the current share price of $39.29, the implied gain here is 21.7%. Silver prices are roughly flat since November, and unless they improve, Silver Wheaton’s share price won’t either.

Alcoa’s target price has dropped from $13 to $11.53 since November. At the current price of $10.46, the implied gain in Alcoa stock is about 10%. Alcoa appears to have little attraction at its current share price, which is more likely to suffer than prosper from a glut of aluminum.

The target price for Steel Dynamics has risen from $16 to $18 in the past three months. At the current price of $14.75, the implied gain in the stock is 22%. As with US Steel, whether or not Steel Dynamics has a chance to add value depends on demand for steel and what that will do to prices if production continues to grow.

Southern Copper’s target price hjas fallen from $36.25 to $35.58. At the current price of $33.45, the implied gain for Southern Copper is 6.4%. The only thing that will boost Southern is a rise in copper prices.

The underlying softness in commodity prices makes any play other than gold a risky choice. Newmont and Barrick, the two gold producers in this bunch, offer significant upside potential, and rising gold prices should help, provided the miners can keep costs under control.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 11 points to 12,705.41 (-0.09%), the NASDAQ rose more than 11 points (0.4%) to 2,859.68, and the S&P 500 rose 0.11% or nearly 1.5 points to 1,325.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE: EW) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) cut to ‘neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) started as ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is up nearly 24% at $66.30; Education Management Corp. (NASDAQ: EDMC) is down -17% at $21.19; Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is down -0.6% at $24.62; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 2.2% at $60.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $61.93 earlier today; Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is up 3.2% at $3.27; Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) is down -3.9% at $5.85; Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) is down -17.5% at $24.43; Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) is up 0.35% at $63.29; Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is down -1.2% at $42.48; Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is down -0.3% at $38.51; Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) is down -0.3% at $15.71; and Viacom Inc. (NASDAQ: VIAB) is down -0.9% at $46.53.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is up nearly 18% at $12.49 after posting a new post-IPO high of $12.91 earlier today. The social games company got a big boost from Facebook’s IPO filing. Our coverage is here.

MediciNova Inc. (NASDAQ: MNOV) is up nearly 31% at $2.47. The company received a favorable patent notice for a multiple sclerosis treatment device.

Response Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: RGDX) is up more than 27% at $1.50. The drug maker announced the private placement of about 5.3 million shares at $1.50/share, about 28% higher than last night’s closing price.

BioScrip Inc. (NASDAQ: BIOS) is up more than 15% at $6.73. The pharmacy services provider has sold a portion of its assets to Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) for $225 million.

Ur-Energy Inc. (AMEX: URG) is down more than -13% at $1.22. The uranium miner has issued 1.5 million shares of new stock to agents who will attempt to sell at CDN$1.00.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll report
• 10:00 a.m. – Factory orders
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing (services) index

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Paul Ausick

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Calpine Corporation (NYSE: CPN) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
CenturyLink, Inc. (NYSE: CTL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE: EW) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ: JDSU) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Nomura Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NMR) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (NYSE: GWW) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

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JON C. OGG

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) Raised to Buy with $37 target at Goldman Sachs.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Raised to Buy at Wunderlich.
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

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JON C. OGG

Acme Packet, Inc. (NASDAQ: APKT) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; estimates and targets lowered after revenue warnings from Morgan Keegan and Wells Fargo.
Affymetrix Inc. (NASDAQ: AFFX) Raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Neutral at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Outperform with $500 target and raised estimates at Credit Suisse.
Crown Castle International Corp. (NYSE: CCI) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) added to the U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) Reiterated Buy with $94 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) Cut to Underperform by RBC Capital Markets.
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) Started as Underperform at National Bank.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Raised to Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) Raised to Overweight at Evercore Partners.

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JON C. OGG

Gold prices have gained about $60/ounce, about 3.6%. Silver prices are up roughly 9%. Copper prices are up by about 8.6%. Titanium prices are unchanged, steel prices have been drifting though more varieties appear to be selling at lower prices, and rare earth minerals vary widely depending on the particular mineral. Lanthanum oxides are selling for about $61/kilogram, while terbium oxide goes for $605/kilogram.

All stock data comes from Yahoo! Finance and current prices were gathered in the early afternoon today.

Of the companies we survey, all but one enjoys a higher stock price today than they did last month. The single exception is Molycorp, which is getting punished today for missing both EPS and revenue estimates. At yesterday’s closing price of $38.70, Molycorp’s share price was higher than it was a month ago.

More interesting, perhaps, were recent changes in median price targets. Only Nucor and Titanium’s price targets have remained the same in the last month. Two stocks, Newmont and Barrick, had their price targets raised and the other seven had price targets lowered.

Newmont’s target price was raised from $77 to $81. At the new target price and a current price of $70.41, Newmont’s implied gain is $10.59, or 15%. The stock put up a new 52-week high last week, and its forward P/E also rose from 10.2 to 11.47. In the past month, shares have gained more than $7, or 11%. The company’s pledge to raise dividends if gold price targets are met is another reason to look carefully at this stock.

Barrick’s target price was raised from $66.50 to $68. At the new target price and a current price of $52.61, Barrick’s implied gain is $15.39, or 29%. Shares are trading at less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $55.95. Over the past month, Barrick’s shares have gained 12%.

The largest drop in target price was settled on Molycorp, which saw its target price fall from $80- to $70. Even at that, the implied gain for the shares, based on today’s price of $34.04, is 106%. The wide gap is due not so much to any failure on Molycorp’s part but to what might be “irrational exuberance” for the stock by investors. There is also the fact that Molycorp’s mineral reserves tend to be heavy on the lower-priced rare earths and light on the higher-priced metals.

The largest percentage drop in target price was claimed by US Steel, which saw its target price fall from $40 to $34.50, nearly 14%. The company posted a new 52-week low on October 3rd. At the current price of $26.08, the implied gain is $8.42, or 32%. US Steel is widely expected to be acquired — and fairly soon — which is attracting short sellers in droves.

Freeport-McMoran’s target price fell from $55 to $53 in the past month, even though shares have added $5.05, or about 15%, in the same period. The implied gain based on the new target price and the current price of $39.83 is 33%. Freeport’s problem is that demand for copper might be stagnating or worse, given the construction slowdown in China.

Silver Wheaton’s target price fell from $51.50 to $49.50, while the share price has gained 17%. At the new target price and based on today’s price of $36.18, the implied gain here is 37%. There is plenty of headroom for Silver Wheaton’s share price to continue rising, but demand for silver will be the driver.

Alcoa’s target price dropped from $15.50 to $13 in the last month, even as the share price has risen by about 8%. At the new target price and based on the current price of $10.58, the implied gain in Alcoa stock is nearly 23%. Given that shares rose by 8% in the last month, anything’s possible, even that Alcoa may hit the lower target.

The target price for Steel Dynamics fell from $18 to $16, while share prices gained a substantial 23% in the same period. At the new target price and a current price of $13.51, the implied gain in the stock is 18%. EPS estimates for the current quarter have fallen by nearly -20% in the past month, following lowered guidance from the company.

Southern Copper’s target price fell from from $36.75 to $36.25 in the past month, even though the share price rose by 21%. At the new target and at the current price of $32.41, the implied gain for Southern Copper is nearly 12%.

Paul Ausick

Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Raised target to $30 from $28 at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Hold at Canaccord.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Started as Neutral at Lazard.
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Steven Madden, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) named Growth & Income stock of the day at Zacks.
Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) has a median target price of $40.00 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $23.52, for an implied gain of $16.48, or 41.2%. US Steel’s forward P/E is 6.46 and the company’s dividend yield is 0.90%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $18.85-$64.03, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above its 52-week low and 63% below the 52-week high. The huge difference between US Steel’s 52-week high and its current price indicates a substantial opportunity here, if the company can get its act together. It owns its own sources of iron ore and coke, so it is relatively insulated from the higher costs faced by many other steel makers. The company should be doing better than this, but it’s a tough market out there.

Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) has a median target price of $45.00 from 13 brokers. Shares traded today at $34.85, for an implied gain of $10.15, or 22.6%. Nucor’s forward P/E is 10.34 and the company’s dividend yield is 4.20%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $29.82-$49.24, and at today’s price that’s about 17% above the 52-week low and 29% below the 52-week high. Nucor stock recently took a hit when the company lowered third-quarter EPS estimates to $0.45-$0.55 compared with analysts’ expectation of $0.64. Demand for raw materials raises costs for Nucor, at the same time that demand in the US has fallen.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) has a median target price of $18.00 from 13 brokers. Shares traded today at $10.95, for an implied gain of $7.05, or 39.2%. Steel Dynamics’ forward P/E is 6.49 and the company’s dividend yield is 3.70%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $8.78-$20.70, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above the 52-week low and 47% below the 52-week high. Like Nucor, Steel Dynamics revised EPS expectations downward last month by at least a third compared with analysts expectations.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) has a median target price of $77.00 from 16 brokers. Shares are trading today at $63.24, for an implied gain of $13.76, or 17.9%. Newmont’s forward P/E is 10.2 and the company’s dividend yield is 1.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $50.05-$71.25, and at today’s price that’s about 26% above the 52-week low and 11% below the 52-week high. Newmont is the largest gold miner in the world and its dividend yield is also the highest among the miners. The company has committed to raising dividends if certain gold price targets are hit, making life even tougher for competitors.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) has a median price target of $66.50 from 20 brokers. Shares traded today at $46.93, for an implied gain of $19.57, or 29.4%. Barrick’s forward P/E is 7.67 and the company’s dividend yield is 1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $42.50-$55.95, and at today’s price that’s about 10% above the 52-week low and 16% below the 52-week high. Gold mining stocks have not been able to keep up with the rising price of gold mainly because the miners’ costs keep rising even as gold prices rise. Barrick is one of the lowest cost producers among the big gold mining companies, and that’s a real positive for the company.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Underperform and cut estimates at Credit Suisse.
Apollo Residential Mortgage, In (NYSE: AMTG) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
BMC Software Inc. (NYSE: BMC) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Boston Properties Inc. (NYSE: BXP) Reiterated Buy with $120 target at Argus.
Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Reiterated Buy with $28 target at BofA/ML.
Crawford & Co. (NYSE: CRD-B) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: FRAN) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Started as Buy at Jefferies; Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: NCI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Reiterated Buy with $104 target at BofA/ML.

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