More oil may have leaked, however, when BP cut a pipe to allow its new cap to be put into place. Scientists also think that leaking oil is now flowing from cracks in the seabed. There is no “fix” for seabed leaksNo one knows for sure how much oil is released each day and whether that amount will increase or decrease over the next few weeks and months. Experts in drilling like Boone Pickens say that even relief wells may not work. He compared the current spill to the Ixtoc I submersible platform one which began on June 3, 1979. It released, by most estimates, 30,000 barrels a day for nearly a year.  Unlike Deepwater Horizon it was in shallow water.

BP still insists that the leak is only about 25,000 barrels a day at most. The US government seems to agree with that estimate. Steven Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, has often been quoted in the media insisting that 70,000 barrels per day is spilling from the pipe. His methodology may not be any better than other experts.

BP and the federal government are clever to insist that the capture project will stop most of the oil emanating from one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history from polluting the Gulf and the environment around it.  But, clever may not be enough. The Deepwater Horizon disaster may be in its early stages.

Douglas A. McIntyre

For those of you who follow alternative energy or follow marketpundits, this is T. Boone Pickens’ natural gas for auto vehiclesstock.  Pelosi clean energy desires make this an interesting play, andit makes one wonder if more legislation along the lines of the Picken Plan is going to really come down the pipe.

Cramer believes this is as big of a ringing endorsement of the highestsort, but because it is thin volume he wants you waiting five daysbefore pulling the trigger.

This was recently downgraded by Broadpoint, and Pickens recently talked it up ahead of his traveling around to discuss the Pickens Plan.  Shares were flat today, but after the Cramer tout this stock traded up 7% to $15.25 in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg
August 25, 2008

This morning he was just on CNBC with his new outlook for oil and energy prices.  This morning Pickens said he thinks oil is going to back off maybe $10 to $15 in Q2 but prices will come back up in the second half of the year.

He also noted that natural gas was too high and when asked if he was short natural gas he responded, "Well, Yeah."  He did say that natural gas will become a transportation fuel, and you can see his Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) that is positioned to run natural gas for autos.  He also noted about the need to clean up coal.  He also noted that wind and solar are going to have to be used, and we need to get on board with alternative energy.  While Pickens is calling for a pullback here, he said that if we do not get on the alternative energy bandwagon and if we don’t have a global recession we could be sitting on $150 oil in two-years.

This morning, one of the ministers in Qatar also noted that the recent run up to $100 in oil is speculation from traders.  The Oil Services HOOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) are still up 0.4% at $176.77 in pre-market trading.

Jon C. Ogg
February 21, 2008

He said oil prices will continue to rise because we have no control over our destiny there.  He is talking up natural gas to replace diesel, which he said natural gas can be 50% to 70% cleaner than diesel.  As far as price parity, Pickens said LNG measured gallons comes in today at $3.55 per gallon of diesel versus $3.29 for liquid natural gas and they both take you the same distance.

As far as future oil prices, Pickens said "Get ready for $100.00, you’ll see $100.00 oil before $80.00."  His point is that oil exporters have seen how high we’ll continue to pay, and he even said that this is likely going to become the norm.   He thinks that the global production capacity is 85 million per barrels per day now, and he noted you have to 1,000 wells pumping 1,000 barrels per day to get just 1 million barrels per day.

• Clean Energy Fuels Corp. shares are up about 5% at $15.00 today, and the post-IPO trading range this year has been $10.81 to $20.65.   Pickens can sometimes impact the sector with his calls:
• the Oil Services HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) are up 0.6% to $186.47 today;
• the Energy Select Sector SPDR (AMEX:XLE) is up 0.4% at $77.25 today.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

As far as overall oil and energy, T. Boone Pickens is still very bullish.  He is still not going with formal targets but noted that oil production is now 85M barrels per day and there is a 88M production goal for Q4, "so production is going up."  He also noted that as some fear Oil could go to $100, but he doesn’t think that will happen this year and he thinks that would take a geopolitical event.  T. Boone Pickens created waves and a lot of scurrying when he predicted $80 oil before he’s 80, and that easily came to pass.

Recently we gave an extreme case that some outsiders think could yield oil at $200 per barrel, although keep in mind this is over quite a long time frame.  Goldman Sachs also just lifted its theoretical oil "Super-Spike" band to a higher level of $135 per barrel and even $4.50 per gallon at the pump.  You can also see their comments on individual stocks in the sector here.

Interestingly enough, on the very near term he thinks we should get a pullback here to maybe $78 per barrel.  He still thinks the overall trend is up as demand is up and production is relatively flat.  He noted that there will be less demand in second quarter of 2008, but supply is not going to get better.  As far as where price kills demand, he won’t predict because it hasn’t happened yet at each milestone crossed.

He also noted that America is going green, and his company Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ:CLNE) is a green company that turns compressed and liquefied natural gas to run automobiles and the time has come for this.  He noted that this is domestic, cheap, and clean and that it will happen.

As far as his stance on on gasification of coal, all kinds of alternative energy in coal and natural gas are there with oil at $82.00, but it all depends upon costs.

If you are interested in what goes on the Business World of "Global Warming" or "Climate Change," we now run a daily piece each afternoon on the business developments with public companies titled "The Business Day In Global Warming."  We do not cover this under any political bend.  Every major company out there seems to have some greener initiative, and as far as the Western World is concerned "Green Business Is Now Big Business."

If you would like to set up an RSS feed daily to our ALTERNATIVE ENERGY thread section you can link at the URL here:
http://www.247wallst.com/alternative_energy/index.html

Jon C. Ogg
September 19, 2007

Jon C. Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St., LLC Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Goldman Sachs is calling it as now being in Phase 2 of a multi-year "Super-Spike" era.  It says the lower ends of the $50 to $105 per barrel oil and $8 to $15 per barrel USGC refining margin range has not caused demand to fall.  Its base case forecasts now reflect the upper portion of that band with $80 per barrel oil in 2008 and $90 per barrel in 2009.  It also sees refining margins at $14 per barrel in 2008 and $16 per barrel in 2009. 

Goldman Sachs has raised the high-end of its super-spike price range now and lists $135 per barrel of oil as the high-end, $25 per barrel in refining margin, and even lists $4.50 per gallon as the high-end of a super-spike price on gasoline at the pump.  It does clarify that prices may not need to go this high to lower demand, but says that this similarly is not a ceiling.

Goldman Sachs also named a slew of companies we will include in an updated story.  Over the weekend, we noted a scenario that could justify even higher prices than this, and just last week T. Boone Pickens called for higher oil prices without any definitive targets being noted.

Jon C. Ogg
September 17, 2007

• BP said Mexico’s problems could be a problem for us.
• Higher odds of a recession will cut oil prices if demand drops.
• $80 oil, if you are on the brink of a recession, could push you into one.
• He said he didn’t know what price the oil levels would impact the stock market.
• Natural gas is still in an oversupply, but maybe not as much as first thought.

Yesterday, we gave a Best of Breed list of stocks with oil at $80 per barrel and gave the link for the first time T. Boone Pickens said that we’d see $80 oil before he turned 80 years old.  As a reminder, the two key energy ETF’s are: Energy Select Sector SPDR (AMEX:XLE) and Oil Services HOLDRs (AMEX:OIH). 

Jon C. Ogg
September 13, 2007