First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been a total disaster, but short covering and bottom-fishing traders are snapping up shares.  After an all-time low of $13.75 this week, shares recovered to $14.92 on Thursday on the most active volume in two weeks (over 10 million shares).  Shares are indicated above $15.00 for Friday but we will see if this can hold. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) recovered more than 10% on Thursday after a recent low of $4.94 with a close of $5.59 on over 4 million shares (most since Feb 17 at 7.3 million shares).

One potential problem to consider is that the tariffs could inadvertently impact some of the U.S. producers of solar panels as well.  The issue is that many components involved in making these PV panels also come from China.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is a loser in this tariff effort.  Shares were at $2.60 just last Friday and the ADRs closed down at $2.13 on Thursday.  Shares are indicated higher on Friday but we will have to see how it pans out.  Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) is another loser with its ADR closing at $6.08 Thursday after having been at $7.50 just last Friday.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) closed lower on Thursday at $2.91, but this is actually in-line with prices just last Friday and its 52-week range is $2.54 to $7.90.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is often lost in the shuffle as it is on the technology side of the solar PV process.  It is also in LED technology.  Shares closed down at $4.49 on Thursday against a 52-week low of $4.24.  The 12 million shares traded on Thursday was the highest trading volume seen since last August.

If you really want to know what the trend is on a global-solar basis, just follow the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN).  This ETF closed down yet again at $18.35 on Thursday after closing at $19.21 the prior day and against a $20.61 close last Friday.

Unfortunately, the solar sector has its share of woes and pain.  Austerity, expiration of tax credits, a lack of cost-effectiveness, and other issues are going to be present for the time being whether tariffs exist or not.

JON C. OGG

Westinghouse Solar is a designer and manufacturer of integrated rooftop solar power systems, and CBD is an Australian diversified renewable energy company.  Margaret Randazzo is currently the CFO of Westinghouse Solar and she was also appointed Interim CEO as former CEO Barry Cinnamon is leaving the company.  CBD anticipates that it will shift to a U.S. listing upon the closing of the merger and it plans to list its common shares on that NASDAQ.

The press release noted that the initial meetings about a merger took place in December of 2011.  It is now May and we cannot help but to wonder whether or not other solar companies have considered mergers.  Here are two of the easy observations in the broader solar sector:

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is now at all-time lows and has remained profitable so far despite shares being down 90% from last year’s highs.  It is now only worth about $1.4 billion and it would be considered a busted IPO if the move happened faster.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is already majority-owned by Total SA (NYSE: TOT) and it trades at about 75% under where Total took its stake of almost $1.4 billion.  The entire market cap including the majority stake held by Total is only $628 million.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is in China and now only worth $360 million.  There have been takeover rumors before in this name but the China base and woes in China right now probably make it difficult for a non-Chinese player to acquire the company.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is a name which used to come up regularly in the takeover rumor category, although it has been so battered that getting approval might be impossible after 95% losses from the peak.  It is now worth only about $764 million in market cap.

We would note that Energy Conversion Devices was also always a ‘merger rumor name’ in solar but it went bankrupt.  There is no assurance that other solar mergers are on the horizon, but these companies might want to start thinking about stock mergers which could still give holders upside if the combined companies turn around and thrive again.

To show just how bad things are, the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) ETF trades at $21.09 and it has lost one-third of its value since its reverse split.

Westinghouse shares closed at $0.40 and its 52-week trading range is $0.26 to $2.75.  The market value was only $6.66 million as of Tuesday’s close.

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JON C. OGG

If you combine the losses in the major stocks around solar, wind, and other alternative energies, the losses are billions and billions of dollars in the American companies alone.  We have outlined the profile of each exchange traded fund and we have covered some of the losses elsewhere.  We have tracked 20 stocks in a portfolio over the last year in the alternative energy sector and it is shocking that only 4 of the 20 stocks are not down by more than 50% from their 52-week highs.  It is even worse that 10 of the 20 stocks are down by at least 70% from their 52-week highs if you include the implosions.

We used FinViz performance metrics for the returns, or a lack of returns.  We counted the assets under management directly from each ETF’s website, although we would note that outflows of assets have been seen on top of absolute losses in share price.

First Trust Global Wind Energy (AMEX: FAN) is full of mostly foreign issue holdings and even the king of wind power called Vestas in Europe only has about a 6% weighting with other names coming from Europe and China.  On Friday morning it was trading at $7.17 versus a 52-week range of $7.09 to $12.20.  The loss here over the last year is about 38%.  Assets under management: $24.8 million

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index (NASDAQ: QCLN) is very thinly traded and at $10.10 on Friday it has a 52-week range of $9.00 to $17.02.  It aims to track the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index and is supposed to invest at least 90% of assets in common stocks that comprise the index.  Some names are not exactly what investors might consider as green, but Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) and Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) are each weighted more than 7%.  The loss here is 36.6% over the last year.  Assets under management: $18.7 million

Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) is full of solar stocks which are both domestic and also trade as ADRs from foreign issues which you probably know well if you follow the solar sector.  It invests at least 90% of its assets in common stocks which make up the MAC Global Solar Energy Index.  At $22.77, the 52-week trading range is $22.00 to $88.70 and this has lost 69% over the last year.  Assets under management: $60.7 million

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (AMEX: KWT) is also full of solar stocks, but many do not trade in the United States.  The Van Eck Global ETF aims to track the Ardour Solar Energy Index and puts at least 80% of its assets into common stocks in the index.  At $3.39 it has a 52-week range of $3.29 to $13.08 and this one is down 69.9% from a year ago. Assets under management: $12.7 million

PowerShares Global Wind Energy (NASDAQ: PWND) is thinly traded and aims to track the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Global Wind Energy Index.  The ETF is full of companies which are not US-based and which are not even traded in the U.S. markets. The top 5 names account for more than 40% weighting and the names are China Longyuan Power Group, EDP Renovaveis, ENEL Green Power, Vestas Wind Systems, and China High Speed Transmission Equipment.  At $6.49, its 52-week range is $6.41 to $11.29, and the shares are down 40.8% from a year ago. Assets under management: $13.4 million

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (AMEX: PBW) invests in all forms of clean energy and invests in companies globally.  Eight of ten of its largest weightings do trade in the U.S. and it invests 80% of its assets into common stocks in the WilderHill Clean Energy Index.  At $5.15 it has a 52-week trading range of $4.80 to $10.38 and it is down over 46% over the last year.  Assets under management: $181.1 million

The only good news about the current value of more than $300 million ETFs above is that they have at least not fallen anywhere near as much as some of the key companies which Americans have tried to invest their retirement and speculative money in.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down over 84% over the last year and it still has a market value of $1.8 billion.  The loss here is about $8 billion over the last year in what is supposed to be America’s best solar bet.  First Solar generated $2.76 billion in sales in 2011.  It is currently among the worst stock charts in technology.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) received a huge purchase of a majority stake by Total but that has not kept its shares from sliding and sliding.  At $5.62, its 52-week range is $4.94 to $22.36, and shares are down over 63% over the last year and Total is down probably about 70% in value on this one.  Its market value is now barely $650 million but it generated over $2.1 billion in sales in 2011.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down 69% over the last year and at $3.50 its 52-week range is $3.31 to $12.00.  Its market value is still more than $800 million and its total revenue in 2011 was $2.71 billion.  The loss is far worse when you consider that this was a $90 stock at the peak of the alternative energy and oil boom in 2008.

The losses here have been in the billions and it only scratches the surface on the alternative energy sector losses.  This takes no consideration of the disappearance of Evergreen Solar, Energy Conversion, Solyndra, and Solar Trust.  This also skips over the ethanol losses as well. We do not want to only seem one-sided here even if billions upon billions of real money has been lost in the alternative energy sector that is reminiscent of the losses after the dot-com bubble burst a decade ago.  Some of the blame may be austerity and Chinese dumping, but investor losses do not come with an asterisk in the monthly statements.

The losses in alternative energy are massive, but oil companies have generated trillions of dollars in sales. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is worth $401 billion in market value and sales for all of 2011 were $486.4 billion.  Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is worth about $203 billion in market value and it generated $253.7 billion in sales in 2011.  This also marks the two-year anniversary of the BP PLC (NYSE: BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and BP generated the equivalent of $375 billion in sales in 2011.

It is sad to make jokes about losses this big, but a couple quickly come to mind:

• Alternative energy stocks and ETFs have turned 401K plans into 201K or 101K plans.
• How do make a small fortune? Take a large fortune and buy some alternative energy funds.

JON C. OGG

Now the deal with Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC) appears to have been funded by the Department of Energy and that start one monster covering effort by short sellers that is carrying over again today.  The stock’s move to above $23.00 amounts to a 15% move if you include the 7.7% move today.  That is nothing considering how much the drop has been as this was above $150 earlier last year.

A review of the NASDAQ short interest showed some 21.23 million shares short at the most recent settlement date (March 15).  That is not the largest absolute share count in the short interest and it certainly is not the highest “dollars short” by any means, but it is still a large bet against the company.

A rising industry leader causes all ships to rise and we are seeing that today.  SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up 7% at $5.95 on thin volume and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is up 10% at $3.67 on heavy volume.  Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) is up 4.5% at $23.17.

JON C. OGG

Things are so bad that even the Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) hit a new low today and the $23.99 is under the prior reverse split-adjusted 52-week range of $24.20 to $88.70 today.  PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is at least diversified in alternative and clean energy, but it is still down 1% at $5.45.  SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down 2.5% at $6.095 and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down 3.3% at $3.475 on the day.  MEMC is at a new year low as well, but SunPower still is 20% or more above its 52-week low.

It is not just investors who have to worry here about solar loans.  The taxpayer is on the hook for a lot with First Solar vie DOE loans.  It is interesting that Wall Street is calling for $4.01 EPS on near-30% sales growth to almost $3.6 billion for 2012 and $4.29 EPS on 12% sales growth to $4.02 billion in sales in 2012.  Margins in the sector have been compressing to the point that we just do not even believe these earnings estimates.  How could we believe the earnings estimates any longer?

We would note that it was in February when Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson called First Solar a “Sell” and he went on to call the stock possibly a total write-off as it will start to lose money next year.  That is not a call that an implosion is imminent, but long-term could be very different.  Jim Cramer on CNBC has also warned that he has the ultimate fears in First Solar.

It is hard to keep pounding on this sector leader, but the chart is telling you that things are not just bad at First Solar.  They must be growing to dire circumstances.  This stock keeps hitting lower and lower lows.  Any rally seen in recent weeks has been promptly sold.  The taxpayer is on the hook here along with investors.

European austerity measures are going to continue.  The solar dumping charges with met with tariffs that were almost not worth mentioning.  Chinese solar panel firms have subsidies that allow them to sell below local costs.

In all of the past articles we have never mentioned that First Solar was challenging the all-time lows, but that now appears to be the case.  After looking back at a MarketWatch article, First Solar’s IPO priced at 20 million shares for $20 per share after having increased in size and increased in the price range.  After the IPO, the stock opened up at $24.50 and closed at $24.27 back in November 2006.

We did not even bother mentioning the management vacuum that the company is in.  Solyndra appears to just be the tip of the iceberg here. Look at the Yahoo! Finance chart below, if you dare.

JON C. OGG

The move is just adding insult to injury for many of the key solar players.  With all of the austerity that has been announced and knowing that only more and more austerity measures are coming down the pipe, solar incentives are still at risk for the future.

Shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) are down almost 5% at $24.85 and even the broader ETF called the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is down over 3% at $25.19.  SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down 2.3% at $6.49 and MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down over 5.1% at $3.69.

If these solar companies cannot make money without direct subsidies and if they cannot get by without DOE loan guarantees in the U.s. while fighting sub-cost solar panels being dumped by China with its subsidies, what is the business model?  Solar companies may need to form green charities to raise funding through green donors.

Oil prices may be high, but solar automobiles are not ever likely going to be the dominant threat in future automobiles.  Solar is also fighting the pressure of lower natural gas prices as power companies have incredibly cheap input costs for nat-gas powered plants.

Another hard day for solar stocks… with no reason to believe that this is the last hard day.  Solyndra was likely not the end of the bad news for solar investors, nor for U.S. taxpayers paying for money-losing operations.

JON C. OGG

Solyndra’s huge Department of Energy loan implosion was painful enough at about $500 million.  Most investors do not really focus on the notion that First Solar has a large amount of Department of Energy loans.  First Solar ended the most recent quarter with cash and marketable securities of $788 million.

Getting a live tally on all of the Department of Energy loan guarantees is a bit murky, but as of last June it was put around $4.5 billion to First Solar alone. That figure does include a current project, which is being sold. Sadly, shares were up around $140 at that time.

UBS has cut the price target to $40 on First Solar, while Citigroup cut the target down to $45.  LAst night came a report from Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital on CNBC calling for this to remain a SELL with the potentiality of a total write-off being possible as the company will start to lose money next year.  The most extreme call is for a potential bankruptcy down the road, something we hope does not turn out to be the case.

If First Solar goes under, Solyndra could end up looking a small drop in the bucket.  This is not a situation that will be front and center today nor will it be in the coming weeks.   This is a longer-term concern, but still a valid concern.

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is down only 2.1% at $29.65 against an adjusted 52-week range of $24.20 to $89.00.  The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) ETF is down only 1.7% at $5.86 against a 52-week range of $4.80 to $10.88.  Frankly, it is surprising that these are not down worse.

First Solar shares are now down 9.8% at $32.80 and the volume of 5.6 million shares at 10:25 AM EST already has passed the average daily volume of 4.7 million shares.

JON C. OGG

There are several stocks trading more heavily than usual this morning, and also experiencing large gains or drops in share prices. These include the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP), Dean Foods Co. (NYSE: DF), Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG), Znyga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA), and Wellcare Health Plans, Inc. (NYSE: WCG).

The Guggenheim Solar ETF completed a 1:10 reverse split this morning, causing some issues with online finance sites. We have more coverage here.

Seanergy is up nearly 22% at $3.55. Volume is already about 10x the daily average of about 18,000 shares traded. The dry bulk shipper reported an unexpected profit this morning.

Dean Foods is up nearly 13% at $12.25. Volume is already 150% of the daily average of 1.9 million shares traded. The food and beverage company posted better-than-expected earnings this morning and offered guidance in-line with expectations.

Vonage is down more than -12% at $2.40 after posting a new 52-week low of $2.38 earlier. Volume is already approaching double the daily average of about 550,000 shares traded. The Internet phone company reported in-line fourth-quarter revenues and earning, but projected higher expenses in 2012.

Zynga is down nearly -12% at $12.65. Volume is already higher than the daily average of around 14 million shares traded. The social gaming company posted better-than-expected earnings this morning, but the forecast for the current quarter was weak and several analysts downgraded the stock.

Wellcare is up more than 11% at $70.13 after posting a new 52-week high of $71.54 earlier this morning. Volume is already double the daily average of about 510,000 shares traded. The managed care provider beat earnings expectations this morning and provided a better-than-expected forecast for 2012.

Paul Ausick

Guggenheim Partners, LLC, has now executed that 1-for-10 reverse share split and Yahoo! Finance mistakenly has it trading up 900% or so. While the ETF will continue to trade on the NYSE Arca under the same “TAN” stock ticker, it may take a while for all of the quote systems to catch up.

Yahoo! Finance indicates a 907% gain, Google Finance shows it properly with a 0.59% gain, and AOL’s DailyFinance site has it properly listed as well. 

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is the top holding of the US-traded stocks with over 10% weighting, and this is down over 75% from its 52-week highs.

GT Advanced Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is another high-weighting at almost 7.3% weighting.  This one is still down not even by half from its 52-week high, a miracle by solar stock standards today.

TRINA SOLAR LTD. (NYSE: TSL) is 5.22% of the weighting, and it is down by more than two-thirds from its 52-week high..

MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) accounts for 4.3% of the weighting and it has been a painful hold down by almost three-quarters from its 52-week high.

What was the best way to make a small fortune over the last year?  By investing a large fortune in solar stocks of late.

JON C. OGG

Many solar stocks are likely experiencing rapid short covering.  Sticking around for the lowest prices after serious success is a sucker’s game.  There may also be a political angle here now that President Obama’s poll numbers are looking a bit better.  The problem is that it is going to take more now than a President with a continued favorable stance to alternative energy.  The fundamentals remain weak and now investors are getting to evaluate whether there is any value of if they are value traps.  Take a look at some of the moves…

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up 7.5% at $49.29 against a 52-week range of $42.50 to $175.45.  The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 18 million shares and that was actually down from most reports in the fourth quarter of 2011

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up over 13% at $8.53 today against a 52-week range of $4.94 to $23.36. The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 5.7 million shares, down from a November peak of 9.3 million shares and much lower than the 11.7 million shares short back at the end of June.

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) is even up 12% to $1.29 and no longer at much of a delisting risk.  Its 52-week range is $0.20 to $4.29. The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 11.4 million shares at the lowest levels in a year since it had become a penny stock.

Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL), out of China, is up a whopping 24% at $11.44 against a 52-week range of $5.28 to $31.08.  That makes for a gain of 70% so far in 2011 and it would have to almost rise 200% to challenge its year-high. The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 15.5 million shares.

MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is also up 8% at $5.78 against a 52-week range of $3.65 to $15.04.  That gives a gain of almost 47% so far in 2012.  The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 14.5 million shares and that was actually higher than at the end of 2011 even if it is lower than prior months.

JON C. OGG