Posts for Ticker ‘TAP’

Top Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (BRK-A, CMCSA, MDT, TAP, NVAX, LNUX, THQI, YMI)

These are this mornings top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen early this Thursday from Wall Street research calls:

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) was put on CreditWach (negative) on Wednesday afternoon, which would take the AAA away to match where Moody’s already is.
Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Hold at Collins Stewart.
Medtronic (MDT) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Molson Coors (TAP) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
NovaVax (NVAX) Started as Buy at Merriman Curhan.
SourceForge (LNUX) Cut to Neutral at Merriman.
THQ Inc. (THQI) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
YM BioSciences (YMI) Started as Buy at Merriman Curhan.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 5, 2009 – 8:23 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , ,

Budweiser Returns For US Investors (BUD, TAP, SAM, HOOK)

Bud Image Budweiser is back for US investors.  It has been some time that US investors have been able to invest in an large beer company since  Anheuser-Busch was acquired by InBev.  But it is coming back to a US-stock-listing. Anheuser-Busch InBev has announced that starting Wednesday, September 16, its ADR will list on the NYSE under the old “BUD” ticker.  The NYSE listing upgrades the company´s existing Level I ADR program, which was launched on July 1, 2009.

It has been hard for US investors to invest in the beer market.  Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) was the largest, and despite its Denver HQ many are under the impression that they are investing in the Canadian Molson beer company since Coors and Molson merged.  Besides that for US-beer plays, investors have only had Boston Beer Co. Inc. (NYSE: SAM) with a small $550 million market cap and the micro-cap stock Craft Brewers Alliance Inc.   (NASDAQ: HOOK) to invest in with its $57 million market cap.

Following the Peter Lynch mantra, investors can once again invest in the company of a brand they regularly use.

JON C. OGG
September 11, 2009

Posted on: September 11, 2009 – 12:42 pm in ADR, Buffett, Calendar, Consumer Goods, Editor's Picks, Exchange News, Food, Mergers and Buy Outs, Product Review, Retail, , , ,

Defensive Stocks Offering No Haven (WMT, PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

Burning Money PicWasn’t it just last week that we were up eight days in a row on the DJIA?  And now we have a sell-the-news reaction to the recent growth numbers.  Maybe it is because we ran too far too fast and because we started pricing in robust growth rather than muted growth.  But generally when equities have stayed hot and then start to sell off in profit taking or in case things got too heated, you at least see a migration into some of the defensive stocks.  That is not the case.  In our normal 16 Defensive Go-To Stocks, only ONE was up.  If you throw in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) as the ultimate defensive stock like we usually do, then you have only TWO of 17 trading up on the day….

PEPSICO INC (NYSE: PEP) $56.1805.. Down $0.4895; -0.86%
COCA COLA CO (NYSE: KO) $48.58.. Down $0.19; -0.39%
MOLSON COORS CO. (NYSE: TAP) $47.01.. Down $0.37; -0.78%
KRAFT FOODS INC. (NYSE: KFT) $28.08..  Down $0.27; -0.95%
CONAGRA FOOD INC. (NYSE: CAG) $20.13.. Down $0.40; -1.95%
CAMPBELL SOUP CO. (NYSE: CPB) $30.86.. Down $0.50; -1.59%
HORMEL FOODS CORP. (NYSE: HRL) $37.00..    Up 0.05; +0.14%
MCDONALDS CORP. (NYSE: MCD) $55.72.. Down $0.51; -0.92%
ALTRIA GROUP INC. (NYSE: MO) $18.13.. Down $0.16; -0.83%
VECTOR GROUP LTD. (NYSE: VGR) $15.71.. Down $0.07; -0.44%
REYNOLDS AMERICAN (NYSE: RAI) $45.17.. Down $0.54; -1.18%
PROCTER GAMBLE CO. (NYSE: PG) $53.05.. Down $1.06; -1.96%
COLGATE PALMOLIVE (NYSE: CL) $71.82.. Down $0.89; -1.21%
MERCK CO INC. (NYSE: MRK) $31.79.. Down $0.64; -1.97%
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (NYSE: JNJ) $59.88.. Down $0.56; -0.92%
NOVO NORDISK (NYSE: NVO) $60.024.. Down $0.986; -1.62%

Oddly enough, Wal-Mart is the ONLY one of the DJIA 30 components trading higher this afternoon.

JON C. OGG
SEPTEMBER 1, 2009

Posted on: September 1, 2009 – 2:31 pm in Defensive Stocks, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Refuse To Participate In Rally (PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

Investors flock to defensive stocks in times of trouble and and when they worry, assuming they look to stay in the market when they are worried.  But if the trend here continues, this may be one of the worst times for defensive stocks compared to the overall market.  Our universe of 13 large-cap go-to defensive stocks looks awful in relative performance and it looks like only 1 stock of the 13 has actually outperformed the overall market.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG), and Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) have performed close to the overall markets, but that is almost it.  Forget about Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) as that has been the worst of the lot.  Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) are up double digits from recent lows, but are way behind the market index readings.  Even the high and mighty McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has greatly underperformed.
Read More »

Posted on: May 7, 2009 – 5:31 am in Defensive Stocks, HI/LOW, Index, Technical Analysis, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Hammered Too (PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

burning-money-pic4It’s another rough trading day in the stock market.  It is bad enough that the DJIA is down over 3% to decade lows and under 7,000… But even almost all of the defensive stocks are down today.  Many of these have been absolutely bashed in recent days and weeks as you will see compared to their 52-week highs.

Symbol   Last          Change              52WK-HI
PEP    $47.13    (-$1.01; -2.10%)   $75.25
KO      $39.96    (-$0.89; -2.18%)   $61.90
TAP    $35.84    (+$0.61; +1.73%) $59.51
KFT    $22.31    (-$0.47; -2.06%)   $34.97
CAG    $14.93    (-$0.15; -0.99%)   $24.87
CPB    $26.51    (-$0.26; -0.97%)   $40.85
HRL    $31.60    (-$0.23; -0.72%)   $42.77
MCD    $52.55    (+$0.30; +0.57%)  $67.00
MO      $15.31    (-$0.13; -$0.84%)  N/A “PM”
VGR    $11.74    (-$0.67; -5.38%)   $19.45
RAI    $33.57    (-$0.01; -0.03%)   $65.01
PG       $47.40    (-$0.77; -1.60%)   $73.57
CL       $58.47    (-$1.71; -2.84%)   $80.49
MRK   $23.93    (-$0.27; -1.12%)   $45.73
JNJ    $48.39    (-$1.61; -3.22%)   $72.76
NVO   $46.51    (-$1.91; -3.94%)   $73.73

Jon C. Ogg
March 2, 2009

Posted on: March 2, 2009 – 2:15 pm in Defensive Stocks, HI/LOW, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Only Mixed In Stock Market Turbulence (PE, KO, TAP, KFT, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

You know it’s a rough day in the market when even defensive stocks are weak or mixed.  We are at least seeing a mixed bag from some of these. But the trend is a pretty easy one to see.  Even defensive stocks aren’t acting as a safe haven as they have in prior months.  Beer is up, tobacco is down. Food is up to mixed, but consumer products are mixed.  Below you will see how our list of "go-to defensive stocks" is showing a mixed bag:

Read More »

Posted on: September 29, 2008 – 11:45 am in Defensive Stocks, HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Early Analyst Upgrades (CIEN, DF, GENZ, LPX, M, TAP, NOV, OC, VRTX)

These are some of the preliminary upgrades or positive research calls seen out of Wall Street analysts this Monday morning in early morning hours:

  • Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN) raised to Market Perform at JMP Securities.
  • Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) Raised To Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC.
  • Macy’s (NYSE: M) Raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) Raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) Raised to Buy at Banc of America.
  • Owens Corning (NYSE: OC) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Vertex Pharma (NASDAQ: VRTX) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.

Jon C. Ogg
July 14, 2008

Posted on: July 14, 2008 – 6:27 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

When Defensive Stocks Fail Too (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

It used to be that DEFENSIVE STOCKS were the way to go during periods of uncertainty and during times of market sell-offs.  But now that isn’t even working out.  After we looked at our first line defensive stocks only a piss poor reading of 3 out of 14 were up on the day.  Sure the DJIA dipped under 12,000 briefly and closed down 131.24 at 12,029.06, and the overall trend of the market is bad and feels like it wants to go worse.  To make matters worse, one of the three that are up was up because it is a takeover play currently.

PepsiCo (PEP)                $65.06    -$0.81 (-1.23%)   
Coca-Cola (KO)               $53.16    -$0.80 (-1.48%)   
Anheuser-Busch (BUD)    $61.90    +$0.70 (+1.14%)   
Molson-Coors (TAP)         $55.53    +$0.70 (+1.28%)   
Kraft (KFT)                       $30.00    -$0.32 (-1.06%)   
ConAgra (CAG)                $22.01    -$0.44 (-1.96%)   
Campbell Soup (CPB)       $33.51    -$0.25 (-0.74%)   
Hormel (HRL)                   $35.75    -$0.41 (-1.13%)   
McDonalds (MCD)            $58.21    -$1.00 (-1.69%)   
A’tria (MO)                       $20.71    -$0.01 (-0.05%)   
P&G (PG)                        $65.00    -$0.80 (-1.22%)   
Colgate Palmolive (CL)      $71.71    -$0.68 (-0.94%)   
Merck (MRK)                    $34.86    +$0.18 (+0.52%)   
J&J (JNJ)                          $64.44    -$1.15 (-1.75%)   

In an environment where consumers are spending less and less it seems that even the safe haven stocks aren’t immune as they once were.  Every one of these operations is suffering from issues that weren’t present, or not as much, in 2007 and 2006 such as a weaker consumer, higher energy costs, higher materials costs, and higher delivery/transport cost.  At a time where the market wants to buy agricultural stocks, energy and alternative energy, and defense/war stocks, the traditional names just aren’t working.  Pity.

Jon C. Ogg
June 18, 2008

Posted on: June 18, 2008 – 3:38 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs Beverage Changes (KO, HANS, TAP)

Goldman Sachs is out noting that investors hunkering down into earnings may want to look at beverages as an attractive sector with reasonable valuations.  Goldman Sachs also believes that macro weakness should continue to support defensive stock names for investors.  Interestingly enough the note also suggests that a demand rebound in the U.S. along with moderating cost inflation and international growth will lead to strong earnings growth.  It even noted an approximate 11% EPS gain in Q4 2007 and a gain of 14% EPS growth in 2008.

  • Goldman Sachs is adding Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) to its Conviction Buy List this morning. 
  • Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) is seeing its fiscal EPS raised to $1.63 from $1.61 for this year and raised much higher for next year up to $2.25 EPS from a prior target of $2.10.
  • Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) is seeing a trim in estimates from Goldman Sachs down to $2.61 from $2.64 this year and down to $2.96 from $3.18 for next year.

Jon C. Ogg
January 17, 2008

Posted on: January 17, 2008 – 8:33 am in Analyst Calls, , ,

Defensive Stocks Show Rotation Out of Tech (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

The markets haven’t fallen apart after yesterday’s 360 point dive on the DJIA, but we are still trading a tad lower today.  Now that Cisco Systems is showing you can’t just automatically hide out in all big technology stocks, it appears that investors who want to keep equity exposure are flocking to the DEFENSIVE STOCK names.  You can see below on our ticker list of defensive stocks that only Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) is not up today out of our 17 go-to defensive stocks.

DJI            13,249.05    -50.97    (-0.38%)   
S&P500    1,473.49     -2.13       (-0.14%)
NASDAQ   2,718.11    -30.65     (-1.12%)

PEP    $60.77    +$0.81 (1.35%)   
BUD    $50.29    +$0.23 (0.46%)   
TAP    $54.25    +$0.36 (0.67%)   
KFT    $33.37    +$0.04 (0.12%)   
CAG    $23.03    +$0.02 (0.09%)   
CPB    $35.50    -$0.08 (0.22%)   
HRL    $35.16    +$0.09 (0.26%)   
MCD    $59.21    +$0.83 (1.42%)   
MO      $72.75    +$0.77 (1.07%)   
VGR    $21.89    +$0.30 (1.39%)   
RAI     $63.71    +$0.64 (1.01%)   
PG     $70.07    +$0.65 (0.94%)   
CL     $75.33    +$0.01 (0.01%)   
MRK   $54.59    +$0.39 (0.72%)   
JNJ    $64.20    +$0.29 (0.45%)   
NVO  $123.41   +$1.72 (1.41%)   

Out of the top 10 holdings in the NASDAQ 100 QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQQ), only Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) are trading up.  Unlike prior cautionary days, technology is giving back at least some of the gains today after the Cisco news last night.  It’s hard to tell a trend reversal if it is only the first or second day, but you can at least see where the money is going today (and it isn’t flocking back into financials yet).

Jon C. Ogg
November 8, 2007

Posted on: November 8, 2007 – 12:08 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Show No Panic Rotation (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

With the markets down so much today on the financial stock fallout after the Citi downgrade/concern and with oil stocks listing lower after the Exxon miss, we wanted to show a brief comparison of DEFENSIVE STOCKS versus the market today.  If the market does start to get shaky, many of these defensive stock names are where traders will look to hide their equity money.  That may be even more-so the case now that the fiscal year-end window dressing trade for mutual funds has played out.

If you look below the top defensive stocks, which are all trading lower today, are by and large not down as much as the broad market but they aren’t showing any massive defensive interest either.  Of the 30 DJIA components, only 3 are positive today and they are all technology related. 

DJIA            13,727.52 (-202.49/-1.45%)
S&P500      1,527.59  (-21.79/-1.41%)
NASDAQ    2,829.27  (-29.85/-1.04%)

PEP    $73.19    (-0.53/-0.72%)   
KO      $61.63    (-0.13/-0.21%)   
BUD   $50.95    (-0.33/-0.64%)   
TAP    $55.83    (-1.40/-2.45%)   
KFT    $32.98    (-0.43/-1.29%)   
CAG    $23.50    (-0.23/-0.97%)   
CPB    $36.51    (-0.47/-1.27%)   
HRL    $36.21    (-0.27/-0.74%)   
MCD   $59.29    (-0.46/-0.77%)   
MO      $72.63    (-0.30/-0.41%)   
VGR    $21.62    (-0.26/-1.19%)
RAI      $63.49    (-0.94/-1.46%)   
PG       $69.44    (-0.08/-0.12%)   
CL       $75.03    (-1.24/-1.63%)   
MRK    $57.93    (-0.33/-0.57%)   
JNJ      $64.91    (-0.26/-0.40%)   
NVO    $122.55   (-2.14/-1.72%)

So today may be a bad day and decliners may be greatly higher than advancers, but there is not any major fear going on even if the VIX is back over 21.0 right now. Of course that can change, but that isn’t the case so far.

Jon C. Ogg
November 1, 2007

Posted on: November 1, 2007 – 12:30 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Altria: The Hidden SABMiller & Molson Coors Winner (MO, TAP, BUD)

If you follow beverage stocks or follow alcohol and beer stocks very much, you certainly saw the huge gains today seen in Canadian ADR’s of Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP).  Shares rose some 10% on four-times normal volume after the announcement that SABMiller plc and Molson Coors will combine U.S. brewing operations into a joint venture called MillerCoors.  The joint venture will be 58% owned by SABMiller and 42% owned by Molson Coors with each having an equal voting interest in an all out effort to cut costs to better compete against the dominance of Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) and the solid Budweiser brands.

This joint venture will result in a combined savings of $500 million annually which will be from reduced shipping distances, economies of scale, production and capacity utilization, and operational and advertising overlaps. The companies are projecting $6.6 Billion in combined U.S. sales.  Anheuser-Busch shares are down 1% on the day as its total sales in 2006 for domestic and international (plus equity partner sales) were $15.717 Billion in net sales.

Interestingly enough, Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) may be the hidden winner in this venture because it owns approximately 28.6% of SABMiller plc.  Altria is also the one that will hold the SABMiller interest after the previously announced pending spin-off of Philip Morris International occurs in 2008 (assuming it does).

Read More »

Posted on: October 9, 2007 – 4:15 pm in Tobacco, , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stock Picks Better Than The Market (September 7, 2007)

We are frequently asked about how certain basket picks perform compared to the overall market.  It has been years since anyone has claimed their stocks should gain regardless of the market because most people have smartened up to that nonsense.  But "Defensive Stocks" do perform better in general on a relative basis in down markets.  That isn’t a guarantee and that isn’t an absolute, but at least they did today.

Out of the 30 DJIA components, only J&J was up on the day.  Out of the 17 defensive stocks we gave earlier this morning, 3 of the 17 closed up.  On average of the 17 defensive stocks, if you invested in each one equally the picks would have ‘only’ been down 0.85% out of the basket.  That is better than the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. 

For whatever it is worth, it’s worth noting that ‘relative performance’ doesn’t necessarily pay bills if the market heads too far south.  Here is how the markets fared compared to the defensive stock picks:

                  CLOSE      CHANGE    PERCENT
DJIA         13113.38    -249.97     -1.87%
NASDAQ    2565.7      -48.62       -1.86%
S&P500    1453.55     -25.00       -1.69%

Tick     Close       Change   Percent
PEP     $67.98      $(0.58)    -0.85%
KO       $54.59      $(0.07)    -0.13%
BUD     $49.84      $0.14       0.28%
TAP      $89.24      $0.56        0.63%
KFT      $32.89      $(0.50)    -1.50%
CAG     $25.52      $(0.06)    -0.23%
CPB     $35.54      $(1.14)    -3.11%
HRL     $34.99      $(0.81)    -2.26%
MCD     $49.24      $(0.52)    -1.05%
MO        $67.39      $(0.88)    -1.29%
VGR     $22.98      $(0.09)    -0.39%
RAI       $63.77      $(0.36)    -0.56%
PG        $65.47      $(0.64)    -0.97%
CL        $65.43      $(0.57)    -0.86%
MRK     $49.57      $(0.90)    -1.78%
JNJ      $61.68      $0.02         0.04%
NVO     $113.00    $(0.47)     -0.40%

Jon C. Ogg
September 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: September 7, 2007 – 3:32 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Time To Go Defensive, Again?” (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

If you ever heard the old saying "Be careful what you wish for, you may get it!" it sure seems like we are there.  It also makes you wonder if it is time to go back into Defensive Stocks.  The defensive stock plays are where investors plunk their money when they are less optimistic but still want exposure to stocks.  The DJIA is down over 150 points on the day so far, yet some of these defensive stock plays are barely down. 

Today and this week is the perfect storm for what the stock market was hoping for to deliver a rate cut:

  • Job creations negative for the first time in four years
  • Alan Greenspan says this is similar to 1987 and 1998
  • Weak as could be auto sales
  • Weak home sales
  • Credit woes and delinquencies spilling over
  • mixed retail picture 

These are the ones you eat, drink, and smoke,and they tend to be around medicines and personal products. Here are the basics for defensive stock plays:

  • You have to drink. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Pepsi (NYSE:PEP) are usually a coin toss over performance versus relative value in the beverage plays.  Anheuser Busch (NYSE:BUD) is supposed to win because people drink more beer when they are miserable; or if you don’t mind crossing the northern border a tad you can always look at Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE:TAP). 
  • You have to eat.  Kraft (NYSE:KFT) maybe too tied to activists, Buffett, Phillip Morris, or whatever, but it’s monster play in the sector.  ConAgra (NYSE:CAG), a food giant that is fairly valued.  You can always look at Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) or even Spam-maker Hormel (NYSE:HRL).
  • McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) is deemed the best fast food play off the mid to lower income, as supposedly people will still eat out somewhere.
  • Smokers sometimes do rule.  Altria (NYSE:MO) is supposed to win since history has dictated that people don’t quit smoking when they are stressed out over job security and money.  Cramer had this as one of the TOP 2007 PICKS, but for different reasons.  You can always pick Vector Group (NYSE:VGR), or Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) as well.
  • In personal products, Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Colgate-Polmolive (NYSE:CL) tend to get into your pocketbook unless you stop shaving, washing hands, and brushing your teeth.  The choice of the two usually boils down to relative value and performance.
  • Go-to names in drug and medicine stocks are Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).  A good runner up is Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), even if it is and ADR lower in market cap and based in Denmark, as they are the major insulin play for diabetes treatments.

These are far from great exciting tech plays, but this is the strategy that traditional investors have used whenever it is time to go defensive.  As a reminder, if the stock market is going to really slide then almost everything falls with it.  Defensive stocks in theory are supposed to fall less and are the ones that traditional investors usually start tip-toeing back into first.

Jon C. Ogg
September 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: September 7, 2007 – 9:46 am in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,