The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 248 points to 11,547.23 (-2.11%), the NASDAQ fell more than 49 points (-1.92%) to 2,523.14, and the S&P 500 fell -1.86% or more than 22 points to 1,192.99.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a $500 price target at Credit Suisse. Other ratings actions included DeVry, Inc. (NYSE: DV) cut to ‘underperform’ and ‘Bear of the Day’ at Zack’s; Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a $72 price target at Argus; Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan; and Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) raised to ‘overweight’ at Barclays.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Hastings Entertainment Inc. (NASDAQ: HAST) was down more than -13%, at $1.65, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.55; Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD) was down -0.9%, at $47.47, and Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) was up about 0.3% at $19.51. We took a closer look at Tech Data’s earnings earlier today.

After markets close today and before they re-open for tomorrow, there will be an avalanche of earnings reports. Perhaps the most closely watched will be Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) and a half dozen Chinese solar PV makers: JinkoSolar Holding Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ), JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP). Shares in all these solar makers are down today, as investors anticipate the bad news that’s coming.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

LinkedIn Corp. (NASDAQ: LNKD) is down more than -4%, at $68.95. The company’s 180-day lock-up period ended today, adding another 24 million shares of the company available for sale. LinkedIn tied up another 56 million shares for an additional 90 days or the damage could have been worse.

Pharmasset, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRUS) is up nearly 85%, at $134.03, after hitting a new 52-week high of $135. The company has agreed to be acquired by Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) for $11 billion.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is down nearly -9.7%, at $36.02, after posting a new 52-week low of $34.45. Investors tend to believe that Gilead is paying too much for Pharmasset.

Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN) is down nearly -39%, at $15.56. The Chinese advertising company is the target of a report by short-selling firm Muddy Waters alleging that Focus Media has signififcantly overstated the number of screens in its LCD network.

Global Education and Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: GEDU) is up more than 97%, at $10.60, after posting a new 52-week high of $10.70. The company is being acquired by Pearson plc, owner of the Financial Times newspaper and other media properties.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is up more than 10%, at $55.02. The company received USDA approval for its eye drug Eylea.

Zillow, Inc. (NYSE: Z) is down more than -13%, at $23.52, after posting a new 52-week low of $22.55. There is no specific news about the company, but, like LinkedIn, a pile of shares will be available on the market when the company’s lock-up period ends in about another two months.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. In addition to the earnings reports we’ve mentioned, here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 7:45 a.m. – International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs retail sales report
• 8:30 a.m. – US third-quarter GDP report revisions
• 8:30 a.m. – BEA corporate profits report
• 2:00 p.m. – Federal Open Market Committee minutes released

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Paul Ausick

Tech Data posted third-quarter EPS of $1.26 on revenue of $6.59 billion, compared with consensus estimates for EPS of $1.27 on revenue $6.74 billion. The company also noted that it was “realigning” its resources in Europe and that it expects that to cost it $15 million in the fourth quarter. The company expects “flat to low single-digit sales growth” in both its Americas and Europe segments. No word on profit expectations.

Both Synnex and Arrow have provided brighter outlooks, with Arrow raising its EPS guidance to $1.25-$1.37 for the fourth quarter, solidly above the previous consensus of $1.25. Synnex raised its fourth-quarter EPS guidance above the consensus estimate $1.06 to $1.11-$1.15.

Avnet and Arrow, like Tech Data, missed third-quarter EPS estimates by a penny or two. And with the rather bleak global economics forecasts, especially for Europe, any optimism for better earnings and revenues in wholesale sales seems misplaced. Short-term help could come as a result of recent flooding in Thailand, which will lower the supply of everything from disk drives to chips and raise the prices for these items until full production returns.

Just to offer a glimpse at potential value among the wholesalers, here’s a quick look at potential upside for these five stocks based on share prices collected at mid-morning today.

Tech Data has a median target price of $53.50, and its current share price is $46.13, for a potential gain of about 15.6%. Ingram Micro’s target price is $21.00, and its current price is $17.91, for a potential gain of 17%. Synnex has a median target price of $32.00, and a current price of $28.70, for a potential gain of about 11.5%. Arrow’s median target price is $43.00 and its current price is $34.78, for a potential gain of 23.6%. Avnet’s median target price is $37.00 and its current price is $28.14, for a potential gain of 31.5%.

Every one of these upside numbers is pretty rich, and even if the optimistic earnings forecasts from Synnex and Arrow materialize this quarter, there doesn’t seem to be any reason now to expect that optimism to carry over into 2012. The European economy is about to become a shambles, and the super committee of the US Congress is about to declare failure in reaching an agreement on budget cuts which will trigger $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts to the 2013 budget. Spending contraction is not what these companies need.

Tech Data’s shares are off more than -3.7% this morning, at $46.12, in a 52-week range of $38.21-$54.25. The company’s earnings and Avnet’s announced $1 billion credit facility — coupled with an overall 300-point drop in the DJIA this morning — are dragging all these wholesalers down today, by -2.5% to nearly -4%.

Paul Ausick

We have compiled detailed earnings reports, showing price activity, Thomson Reuters estimates, and added color if applicable on each.  We also included a Thomson Reuters consensus price target on each to show expected values.

Qihoo 360 Technology Company Limited (NYSE: QIHU) reports on Monday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.04 EPS and $20.31 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.05 EPS and $24.12 million revenues.  Shares are trading around $29.50 and the 52-week trading range is $24.01 to $36.21.  This could influence how some of the post-IPO high-flying Chinese companies trade, but we’ll see.  The consensus price target is $35.00.

Tech Data Corporation (NASDAQ: TECD) reports on Monday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.05 EPS and $6.4 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.01 EPS and $6.23 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $53.40 and the 52-week trading range is $34.82 to $54.25 and its average price target is $55.93.  Tech Data offers key insight into the number of unit items being shipped around the world and distributed in technology products and consumer electronics.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) reports on Tuesday after the close. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.37 EPS and $2.77 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.39 EPS and $2.82 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $14.10 with a consensus price target of $17.63 and the 52-week trading range is $10.27 to $16.93.  As the company is in a merger, we expect no nasty surprises from the top chip equipment maker.

Autozone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reports on Tuesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $4.99 EPS and $1.92 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $6.82 EPS and $2.58 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $277.00, its consensus price target is $275.63 and the 52-week trading range is $177.66 to $288.50.

Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) reports on Tuesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.93 EPS and $4.29 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.84 EPS and $4.00 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $42.25. its consensus price target is $42.27, and the 52-week trading range is $30.80 to $43.33.

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) reports on Tuesday and we expect the main focus to be around its patent and I.P. case that recently drove shares. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.31 EPS and $41.98 million revenues; next quarter estimates are -$0.28 EPS and $47.71 million revenues.  Shares are trading around $9.50, it has a loose consensus price target is $14.82 (treat that as very loose), and the 52-week trading range is $6.92 to $12.65.

99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) reports on Wednesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.26 EPS and $372.76 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.27 EPS and $362.19 million revenues.  Shares are trading around $20.20, its consensus analyst price target is $20.50, and the 52-week trading range is $13.12 to $20.59.

Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSC) reports on Wednesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.16 EPS and $4.23 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.97 EPS and $4.02 billion revenues.  Shares are trading around $44.65, its consensus price target is $49.95 from analysts, and the 52-week trading range is $39.61 to $56.61.  CSC is one which has just remained a serial disappointment.

By time and date, we have included earnings estimates from Thomson Reuters, added in color on each, and have shown some general price and value data if applicable.

AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reports Tuesday morning and Thomson Reuters has estimates for the auto-parts supplier of $3.05 EPS and $1.63 billion in revenue; estimates for the current quarter are $4.85 EPS and $1.91 billion in revenues.  With shares trading around $256.00, the 52-week trading range is $162.57 to $276.00.

Tech Data Corporation (NASDAQ: TECD) will offer some keen insight on the warehousing of and the delivery trends of the world’s technology purchases.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.43 EPS and $6.87 billion in revenues.  With shares around $50.00, its 52-week trading range is $34.82 to $51.37.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) reports after the close on Tuesday.  Our take is that investors will be looking for guidance over real results as there are still small numbers generated so far due to what is a minimal production scale of Provenge.  Prior 2011 guidance was promised to be very back-end loaded and that poses risks if there are any delays as it ramps up capacity. Another outstanding issue is the reimbursement rates and the use of on-label versus off-label use.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.49 EPS and $24.68 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.59 EPS and $29.44 in revenues.  With shares around $33.70, its 52-week range is $25.78 to $57.67 and it closed out 2010 at $34.92.

St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is due after the close on Tuesday and it has canceled its conference call now that the CEO just stepped down and the company has brought back in Bruce Berkowitz and three new directors in an activist investor raid. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.09 EPS and $24.3 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.06 EPS and $25.45 in revenues. With shares around $27.80, its 52-week range is $17.04 to $37.44 and it closed out 2010 at $21.85.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is due with its earnings Wednesday morning and we have a positive bias after seeing Target, Wal-Mart and others this last week.  Just watch out for what is a premium valuation.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.78 EPS and $20.52 billion in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.75 EPS and $19.37 in revenues.  With shares around $74.50, its 52-week range is $53.41 to $75.48 and it closed out 2010 at $72.01.

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) Maintained Buy and $14 target at Broadpoint AmTech.
Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Bell Microproducts (NASDAQ: BELM) Cut to Hold at Needham.
BWAY Holding (NYSE: BWY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Enbridge Inc. (NYSE: ENB) Cut To Neutral From Buy By UBS.
Generac Holdings (NASDAQ: GNRC) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) Started as Equal-weight at Barclays.
Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) Started as Buy at Soleil.
Neutral Trandem (NASDAQ: TNDM) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Tech Data (NASDAQ: TECD) Started as Equal-weight at Barclays.

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JON C. OGG

Origin Agritech Limited (NASDAQ: SEED) is today’s top gainer on genetically modified phytase corn approval.

• Yongye International, Inc. (NASDAQ: YONG) and AgFeed Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FEED) are chasing the stock on the news.

Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH) is down on missing trial endpoints.

Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD) is hitting 52-week highs after earnings.

Diedrich Coffee, Inc. (NASDAQ: DDRX) is soaring on a superior buyout offer from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) over the old Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) bid.

Late Friday afternoon we ran a “unusual stock options trading bit” which so far have not seen follow-through.

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JON C. OGG

We have included estimates from Thomson Reuters, relative data on peers and recent developments, and relative performance on each where it was applicable.

The biggest on Monday is Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) in the PC and It services sector.  We would note that estimates may have just been unofficially guided down after Dell’s rotten quarter, but we already have recent guidance from H-P.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.13 EPS and $30.36 billion in revenues.  Estimates for next quarter are $1.04 EPS and $29.7 billion in revenues.  We are going to hold off on most data going into H-P earnings at least before Monday morning because of last-minute estimate changes based on Dell.  We would note that some of Dell’s woes are due to H-P, and then the Acer netbook and whatever you want to tie into Apple’s gains.  H-P is also really marginalized about what it says Monday because it already lifted guidance when it announced its buyout of 3Com (NASDAQ: COMS).

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) is on deck Monday.  This may not seem important, but it is to the meat and food supplier companies.  Estimates are $0.26 EPS and $6.89 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.15 EPS and $6.59 billion in revenues.  As a producer of chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods, it will be interesting to see if the H1N1 fears by the public have finally worked themselves out.  The company just named a new CEO this week, which always makes for a wild card report or conference call.

Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) has finally gotten off the floor after not participating in the rally.  At $34.13, its 52-week trading is $24.63 to $37.58.  Estimates are $0.81 EPS and $2.28 billion in revenues.  The big question here is what the company sees ahead for off-brand and private-label competition from grocery stores looking for more of the profits to stay in their pockets.  It turns out that Campbell Soup is not recession-proof and has some aspects of a luxury brand when it comes to pinching pennies.  Interestingly enough, this one just raised its dividend by 10%.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is also on deck Monday, and by now may just be a me-too solar earnings report.  It is a loser too as estimates are -$0.10 EPS and $277.2 in revenues.  Next quarter is expected to show -$0.05 EPS and $258.7 million in revenues.

Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD) is often overlooked as a key company, but the company offers a broad insight on what is happening in the world of technology products as it gets all the goods from the factories to the end retailers around the globe.  Estimates are $0.70 EPS and $5.31 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.82 EPS and $5.63 billion in revenues.  At just under 15-times expected Jan-2010 fiscal earnings, this isn’t expensive, but the performance is high: At $42.08 this one has a 52-week trading range of $14.14 to $44.63.  We’d watch Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) for a chaser move either way.

We have the big book earnings war on Tuesday with both Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) and Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) and we’d be sure to make note that these are thinly followed compared to most big retailers.  Barnes & Noble is expected to post -$0.33 EPS and $1.16 billion, but the coming holiday quarter estimates are $1.52 EPS and $2.18 billion in revenues.  Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) is expected to post -$0.46 EPS and $630 million in revenues, and the coming important holiday quarter is expected to be $0.92 EPS and $987.9 million in revenues.  While both stocks are up significantly from the lows, neither stock is anywhere close to being a top performer and neither is close to 52-week highs.  There is a move to digital books on e-readers and online pure-plays for selling books or readers buying at Costco, Wal-Mart, and elsewhere.  And dare we say… Most Americans do not read books anymore anyway.  It looks like there are fresh reports that the Nook e-reader from Barnes & Noble is also getting delayed and might not make the Christmas deadline… a win for Amazon and the Kindle.

J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG) is far from a systemic stock, but it will be all over the media when it reports on Tuesday because of the Obama effect.  Michelle Obama has been a boom for J. Crew… to the point that you can’t not notice the premium valuations over other clothing retailers.  Estimates are $0.58 EPS and $407.99 million in revenues, and the estimates for the ever-important holiday season are $0.40 EPS and $435.48 million in revenues.  As far as how this translates to forward numbers, J. Crew trades after a 1.6% drop today to $40.45 at over 25-times the $1.60 EPS estimate for Jan-2010 FY and trades at 21-times the $1.93 EPS estimate for Jan-2011 FY.  With a $40.45, it is also at the top of the $8.02 to $44.29 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  This stock was at $50.00 briefly in early 2008 and above $50.00 in 2007 before the great bear market came to town before Santa.

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is also on deck Tuesday, and this can influence all the other dollar stores.  By now you have figured out that dollar stores were the winner in the trade-down economy during the recession.  Estimates are $0.66 EPS on $1.24 billion in revenues.  The coming holiday quarter estimates are $1.35 EPS and $1.53 billion in revenues.  At $48.70 today, its 52-week trading range is $27.61 to $51.72.  That being said, there is little else to watch except for keeping an eye on Dollar General (NYSE: DG), 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN), and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO).

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has already recovered handily to the point that it is close to 52-week highs.  It reports Wednesday morning, right before everyone disappears to go eat Turkey with their families in America.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $4.44 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $4.06 billion.  At $50.00, it is at the top of the $24.51 to $52.28 trading range over the last 52-weeks. Deere has already announced that it was recalling 452 laid off workers for an Iowa plant, so it would be a shock if suddenly the company announced that business was rolling back over hard.  We will be hoping for raised guidance for its fiscal October-2010 because the $2.68 estimate above the $2.61 EPS estimate for fiscal October-2009, but more importantly because that is 18.6-times forward earnings.  Anything short of raised guidance, by a handy amount, will be a disappointment to us.

We will follow-up on some of these each day next week with much more detailed earnings previews and some earnings reports in the key names.

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JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 19, 2009

Ingram now expects earnings of $0.18 to $0.23.  Thatjust won’t cut it.  First Call has analysts’ estimates of $0.37 for earnings. The company previously gave guidance of around $0.36.  Revenue also isexpected to be $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion, below its previous forecast of $8.5 billion to $8.8 billion.  First Call revenue estimates are for$8.71 billion.

The tech distributor also in the process of exiting itslower return operations, although that is buried as a footnote when youconsider the earnings warning on another bad day in the markets.  Oneissue that the company noted specifically is the lack of a recovery in its business in Europe that occurs in September asEuropeans return to work after their long vacations. While it saidNorth America is relatively stable, Ingram’s management noted noted asystem-wide and broad-based economic softness.

Shares are down over 7% in fairly thin trading volume this morning.  At$16.20, it still hasn’t broken through the $14.86 low of the last52-weeks seen in March.  This is also pulling down shares of competitor Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD).

Jon C. Ogg
September 16, 2008

• T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) added 15 million shares of stock to its existing buyback plan, close to 6% of its outstanding stock.
• Tech Data (NASDAQ: TECD) announced $100 million for share buybacks, in addition to its existing plan.  Its market cap is almost $2 Billion, so about 5% of its outstanding stock.
• One interesting buyback came from Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI), which added $500 million to its buybacks.  While this is technically an add-on plan, it is after the Reuters and Thomson merger.
• A small announcement came from CTS Corp. (NYSE: CTS), which announced it would repurchase up to 1 million shares of common stock.  That is only about $11 million in today’s dollars and its market cap is $365 million.

It seems that share buybacks are getting less and less on the new buyback plans, but that may be dual-imposed function.  The first and obvious cause for the lack of new share buybacks is that this was the most in-vogue announcement that a company could make in 2006 and 2007 with each year seeing massive amounts of cash used to return stock and return capital to shareholders.  The more pressing issue however may be the obvious in that companies may realize they need to start hording cash for what lies ahead.

Some traders prefer share buybacks and some do not.  To 247WallSt.com they make plenty of sense if the buyback is used as a stabilizing factor in volatile times.  But when companies keep buying back stock if there shares are under no pressure we frequently think they are trying to juice their internal EPS growth or that they can’t find many good alternatives for growth.  Obviously that isn’t always the case.

Jon C. Ogg
June 6, 2008

Goldman Sachs also noted that it expects fundamental strength across all geographies here to drive strong revenue and earnings growth in the December quarter and in 2008.  The research notes that Ingram Micro is down some 16% since early November on no real fundamental news, leaving the distributor at 9-times the Goldman Sachs calendar EPS target of $1.97.

Goldman Sachs sees this stock at $24 over the next 12 months.  This closed at $17.80 Wednesday and the 52-week trading range is $17.67 to $22.50.

We perused through First Call data and it appears that Wall Street analysts have a consensus target closer to $25 and a 2008 EPS target of $1.96, so this upgrade isn’t calling for anything that would be outlandish for a crowd of analysts.  Wall Street uses Tech Data (NASDAQ:TECD) as the comparison stock here and the valuations at Tech Data are much higher, although we would caution that there are more overlaps in more areas of the companies than a head to head comparison.

Jon C. Ogg
January 3, 2008