Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) Maintained Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.
Cheniere Energy Inc. (NYSE: LNG) Started as Outperform with $13.50 target at Credit Suisse
Cheniere Energy Partners, LP (NYSE: CQP) Started as Neutral with $20 target at Credit Suisse.
Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) maintained Buy with $33 target at Canaccord Genuity; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity; Cut to Neutral at Ticonderoga.
Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Started as Underweight at JPMorgan.
France Telecom S.A. (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO Capital.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays.
OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays.
PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH) Started as Neutral with $72 target at Credit Suisse.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Started as Outperform with $168 target at Credit Suisse.
Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

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JON C. OGG

AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) Cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.

France Telecom S.A. (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
General Growth Properties Inc. (NYSE: GGP) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.

Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) Raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE: PNW) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Telefonica, S.A. (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA) Reiterated Buy with $52 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) Raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
United Natural Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNFI) Raised to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) Raised to Top Pick at RBC.
Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (NYSE: WCG) named as value stock of the day at Zacks Investment Research.

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ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARMH) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
CareFusion Corporation (NYSE: CFN) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Edison International (NYSE: EIX) Added to US Focus List at Credit Suisse.
General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) Added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) estimates cut to expect a loss by Citigroup.
PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Cut to Hold at Argus; Removed from U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Stryker Corporation (NYSE: SYK) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Telefonica, S.A. (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Telecom Italia SpA (NYSE: TI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.

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Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) Added to Focus 1 List at BofA/ML.
Enbridge Inc. (NYSE: ENB) Started as Outperform at Scotia.
Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) Reinstated as Neutral at BofA/ML.
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Started as Underperform at Macquarie.
Telefonica, S.A. (NYSE: TEF) Raised to Buy at UBS.

See last week’s top analyst calls here.

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JON C. OGG

Allied Irish Bank Group (NYSE: AIB) Cut to Hold and Target Cut to 1.02 (Euro) at RBS; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Energizer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ENR) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) Started as Hold at Needham.
GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HBC) Cut to Hold at RBS.
Smith & Nephew plc (NYSE: SNN) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Telefonica, S.A. (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Cut to Sell at Brean Murray.
WuXi PharmaTech Inc. (NYSE: WX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

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JON C. OGG

While this certainly has no FIFA endorsement, there seems to be more of an “Anti-World Cup Effect” that took place the day after Spain’s Victory.  The ETFs and ADRs of Spain are all lower, with some mixed results in the Netherlands.

Our technical analysis affiliate, Adam Hewison of INO, is looking at the odds of a dollar index rally.  That always throws in a curve ball for ADR analysis.

We are watching the moves in The Ibero-America Fund, Inc. (NYSE: SNF), iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP), Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria (NYSE: BBVA), Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD), Repsol YPF SA (NYSE: REP), and Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF).  The moves are as follows today:

• The Ibero-America Fund, Inc. (NYSE: SNF) $5.58, down 0.10;
• iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP) $36.83, down $0.57;
• Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria (NYSE: BBVA) $12.02, down $0.19;
• Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) $12.49, down $0.25;
• Repsol YPF SA (NYSE: REP) $22.20, down $0.19;
• and Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) $61.10, down $0.56.

And the losing nation, The Netherlands, is seeing the same… iShares MSCI Netherlands Investable Market Index (NYSE: EWN) is not trading any better. It is down $0.10 at $18.53 on only about 68,000 shares.  The standout name in ADRs today is Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (NYSE: PHG), or Philips Electronics, with a gain of 0.2% to $31.95 for its ADRs today.

Bloomberg noted about a month ago that investors should sell the markets of the nations that were eliminated from the World Cup the day after their losses.

The problem that makes this victory’s conundrum may be a rather simple explanation.  Office betting pools are huge distractions around the Super Bowl for American football in the U.S.  Spain is not exactly known for its workforce having the greatest of work ethics as far as its population is concerned.  Imagine if the U.S. had a game where just about everyone in the country was rooting for the team… the time loss and productivity loss would be enormous.  Spain has had weeks of this distraction, and there are probably more than just a few hangovers in Spain which may last longer than just today (in the Netherlands too for that matter).

With the Dollar/Euro at $1.2595 today, maybe some eyes are still on the currency markets.  It seems that in the world of ADR investing, both sheep and PIIGS get slaughtered.

JON C. OGG

We have added in color, expected moves or expected outcomes, historical data, and other information on each where applicable.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is reportedly going to either have to accept less from Prudential plc for the key Asian unit AIA, OR is it going to get an IPO of the unit.  The $35+ billion sale has been in limbo since U.K. regulators threw up capital requirement concerns and a rights offering and capital raise might not be enough to addresses their worries.  The U.S. Treasury has reportedly also been working on plans of its own for the unit if the deal falls apart (or if the renegotiated sale price comes in too low.  We should get a better picture this week, and it may be worth noting that the near-3% drop to $35.38 on Friday really only compares to a close of $35.96 a week earlier and the trading range of the week was $32.11 as a low and $37.00 as a high.

AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) has a FDA panel review of it An FDA panel considers MedImmune subsidiary’s respiratory-tract treatment on Wednesday May 2, 2010.  AstraZeneca’s market cap is over $60 billion and its 2009 sales were over $32.8 billion, so any big moves here on one drug review would be suspect.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A, BRK-B) is an unusual suspect to watch this coming with its ties to Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) as the single largest holder.  Even though Warren Buffett has lightened up in his stake considerably, he will be under subpoena this coming week.  Buffett will have to testify in front of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission at a hearing on the role that the credit ratings agencies played in the financial crisis.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) is rallying as analysts keep upgrading the stock.  This was one of our “Stocks Which Could Double”, which we released this month.  At that time, the shares were $3.73, but then the market correction took it only as low as $3.53 and its shares closed at $3.96 on Friday after a $4.02 close on Thursday.  This is still a long ways from doubling in the next 12 to 24 months, but this stock was raised this last week by Oppeneheimer (Meredith Whitney’s replacement), Goldman Sachs raised it, and Raymond James raised it a week earlier.

GenMark Diagnostics, Inc. (NASDAQ: GNMK) appears to have been one crappy IPO.  The provider of automated, multiplex molecular diagnostic testing systems priced its IPO of 4,600,000 shares at a price of $6.00 per share. Shares closed down at $5.40 and this appears to have been down as much as 14% at $4.56 in the after-hours session on Friday.  Maybe this one should have been called SkidMark Diagnostics.  What sort of idiots trade an IPO debut at 3:00 EST on a Friday?  People with skid marks.

Icahn Enterprises, L.P. (NYSE: IEP) is the way to invest in and with Carl Icahn according to Barron’s.  The publication noted, “The average Joe can invest with a pro via Icahn Enterprises, the diversified holding company run by legendary Carl Icahn. Even better, the shares trade at a big discount to asset value.  This is going to be active on Monday as many investors do not even know about the units.  At $34.33, its market cap is about $2.9 billion and its 52-week range is $26.80 to $51.65.  We’d expect a big jump here because the average volume is only about 18,000 units per day and the last time it traded over 100,000 units in a single day was September 9, 2009.  Expected move: An open of 3% higher or a tad more, call it $35.50.

Speaking of Carl Icahn, Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) is expected to post a loss of -$0.25 EPS on Tuesday, June 1, after the closing bell.  Carl Icahn lost his proxy fight here but actually won on the ]pmoney-making… At $6.80 now, its shares have a 52-week range of $4.81 to $7.29.  On March 1 the company announced its first share tender of $6.00 when shares were at $5.45, and that tender was then lifted.  Despite the rejection, Icahn has close to a $1.40 per share profit depending upon his real dollar-cost averaging.

Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) is a cheap ADR to get into Europe according to Barron’s.  The cover story  is “10 Great Stocks” and it listed many picks, but noted Siemens as competing with G.E. and having industrial and software products which are “used from China to the U.S. and all points between.”  With ADRs at $89.53 and trading at about 11-times next year’s earnings estimates, the 52-week range is %63.37 to $103.10.  The implied market cap here is over $77 billion.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) reports earnings on Thursday morning and is one of the most active of the few companies reporting earnings next week.  Estimates are $0.14 EPS on $559.89 million according to Thomson Reuters, which compares to a year ago of $0.01 EPS on $315.66 million in revenues.  With shares at $10.10, the 52-week range for the ADRs of the Chinese photovoltaic products maker is $9.05 to $21.38.  With earnings estimates of $0.72 EPS for 2010 and $0.92 EPS in 2011, the forward earnings multiples are only 14 for 2010 and just under 11 for 2011.

Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS) is a trust that invests in and holds substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion, and it had a secondary offering that whacked the trust this week.  After the 3,240,000 Units of the overallotment were exercised, Sprotts’ gross proceeds were $279,450,000 for 24,840,000 Units offered at $11.25 per Unit.  The 52-week range is $9.48 to $13.07, but this one fell from $12.46 to $11.40 on the offering, to close out the week at $11.53.  Maybe this is punishment for buying new gold at the top, but that is very odd to see a drop this much for a trust secondary.

SPAIN: “Viva Ethpaanya”…. Fitch took the whole market south on a quiet pre-holiday day with a downgrade of Spain to AA+ from AAA.  This took a bite out of the markets, although honestly you need to ask yourself one big question here: “Did you EVER think of Spain as ‘AAA’ at all this year?”  No you did not, or should not have if you see the notes from other ratings agencies with far muted GDP, inflexible workforces, A nation like California full of property bubbles, and on.  The Ibero-America Fund, Inc (NYSE: SNF) closed down only 2.6% at $5.24 on a whopping 28,000 shares with a 52-week range of $4.85 to $8.07.    The iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP) closed down only 0.77% at $33.58 on over 1 million shares against a 52-week range of $31.50 to $52.67.  And the easiest way to play Spain for a stock or ADR  may be the telecom play as the one that won’t go away as Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF), which closed down 1.5% at $57.37 versus a 52-week range of $54.45 to $89.62.

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JON C. OGG

Aeterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ: AEZS) Reiterated Outperform but Target raised to $2 from $1.50 at RBC.
Alberto-Culver Co. (NYSE: ACV) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDRX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
China Automotive Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CAAS) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Started as Buy at Brean Murray.
Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) Started as Buy at Brean Murray.
Strategic Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: BEE) Raised to Neutral at Baird.
Silicon Image Inc. (NASDAQ: SIMG) Raised to Buy at Needham.
Sybase, Inc. (NYSE: SY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) Cut to Hold at Kaufman; Cut at Lazard late Friday on the bad court review news.  TiVo’s technical trade set-ups are also available at VSInvestor.com.
Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

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JON C. OGG

We are seeing moves in the main stocks and funds which track Spain: The Ibero-America Fund, Inc. (NYSE: SNF), iShares MSCI Spain Index (NYSE: EWP), Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria (NYSE: BBVA), Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD), Repsol YPF SA (NYSE: REP), and Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF).

S&P notes, “Spain is likely to have an extended period of subdued economic growth, which weakens its budgetary position…”

The negative outlook reflects the possibility of a downgrade if the nation’s budgetary position underperforms more than is currently expected.  The move away from a credit fueled economy will now result in longer-term growth from 2010 to 2016 is what S&P thinks will now be about 0.7% rather than 1.0% previously expected; and S&P expects that the nominal GDP will regain the 2008 level by 2015 rather than 2013 previously forecast.

S&P also sees private sector debt at 178% of GDP, above many of Spain’s peers.  Also noted is an inflexible labor market, where unemployment is expected to reach 21% in 2010.

You know the rest.  High debt, lower GDP, deleveraging, and on and on…

JON OGG

In one of the more ho-hum announcements in recent memory, Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Spain’s Telefonica S.A. (NYSE :TEF) today announced a strategic alliance to “develop future products and services designed around enhanced data-first experiences,” etc. The announcement offers no specific information, but is long on buzzwords and vague declarations such as, “Deliver next generation solutions first.”

The press release does not say that the two companies will develop and sell a smartphone in the US. It does not say what kind of services the two companies will develop.

Dell did unveil a phone in China, and is reportedly working on a smartphone using Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android operating system. It’s possible that the Dell-Telefonica deal involves getting the Spanish company to carry that phone, when it is finally released.

What Dell appears to be hoping for is a coat-tail effect among its corporate customers as they move from desktop hardware to mobile hardware. The problem for Dell is that it has probably waited too long.

The adoption rate for mobile internet devices is more than twice as fast as desktop internet adoption. Analyst Mary Meeker at Morgan Stanley notes that desktop internet subscribers in the US peaked at about 50 million more than four years after 1994 release of the Netscape browser. Mobile internet subscriber totals have hit 57 million in just over two years since the release of the iPhone and the iTouch. And the number is still following a hockey-stick growth pattern.

If Dell were serious about the mobile market, it would probably have figured out long ago that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was onto something with that iPhone thingy. Apple’s latest gadget, the iPad, is also a roaring success and is bound for even greater success. The mobile market is about to explode with new gadgets, and Dell is destined to be no more than just another bit player.

Dell’s shares have gained more than 2.5% so far today as the company basks in the glow of Intel’s (NASDAQ: INTC) outstanding quarterly earnings and guidance. If the PC market picks up in the second half of 2010, as many analysts expect, Dell will certainly face price pressure from low-price competitors like Acer and Lenovo.

Dell’s delayed entrance into the mobile market will come back to haunt it. Maybe not next quarter, or even this year. But failure to have skin in the fastest growing segment of the computing market consigns the company to playing in the low-margin, slow-growth desktop space.

Paul Ausick