The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 90 points to 12,806.15 (0.71%), the NASDAQ rose more than 25 points (0.84%) to 3,016.46, and the S&P 500 rose 0.75% or more than 10 points to 1,368.79.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including J.C. Penney & Co. (NYSE: JCP) started as ‘neutral’ at UBS; American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) started as ‘buy’ at Maxim Group; Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) raised to ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity; Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) started as ‘outperform’ at RBC; and Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) started as ‘neutral’ at UBS.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Alcoa is up 6.2% at $9.90; Health Care Services Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HCSG) is up 7.2% at $21.47; Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) is down -0.6% at $22.61; and Adtran Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) is up 7.5% at $30.61. After the markets close today we will hear from Mission West Properties Inc. (NASDAQ: MSW) among others. Before the markets open tomorrow morning we get earnings from Fastenal Corp. (NASDAQ: FAST) and Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Mattress Firm Holding Co. (NASDAQ: MFRM) is up more than 17% at $43.89 after posting a new 52-week high of $45.42 earlier today. The retailing company posted good earnings and announced an acquisition. More coverage here.

Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) is up more than 17% at $32.20 after posting a new 52-week high of $33.35. The farm machinery company shattered earnings expectations.

Cal Div International Inc. (NYSE: DVR) is up more than 13% at 3.71. The offshore oil field services firm has announced that it will be a 40% partner in the Cape Wind project offshore of Massachusetts.

Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) is down more than -16% at $4.21, a new 52-week low. The cell phone maker warned on earnings this morning and is fixing a glitch in its new Lumia 900 phone. Even more coverage here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota, and Federal Reserve governor Sarah Bloom Raskin are all giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade statistics
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 8:30 a.m. – Producer price index
• 10.30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 1:00 p.m. – 30-year bond auction
• 4:30 p.m. – Fed balance sheet and money supply

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Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 186 points to 12,184.11 (1.55%), the NASDAQ rose more than 50 points (1.94%) to 2,646.85, and the S&P 500 rose 1.68% or more than 20 points to 1,255.14.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) started as ‘equal-weight’ at Evercore Partners. Other ratings actions today include Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) started as ‘underperform’ at Imperial Capital; Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) started as ‘buy’ with a target price of $2.20 at Citigroup; Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) started as ‘market perform’ at BMO Capital; and Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP) started as ‘hold’ at ThinkEquity.

Here are today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Ferrellgas Partners L.P. (NYSE: FGP) is down -2.7% at $20.77; Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) is up about 1% at $23.11; Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPTT) is up 0.63% at $3.20; and KMG Chemicals Inc. (NASDAQ: KMGB) is up 3.4% at $15.67.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) is up more than 47% at $39.06. The snack food maker got a huge boost today on word from a broker that the accounting issues that have delayed Diamond’s acquisition of Pringles from Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) will be resolved soon and the acquisition will proceed quickly.

Blue Coat Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BCSI) is up more than 44% at $25.18. The network technology company is being taken private at $25.81/share in an all-cash offer that values the company at $1.3 billion.

Flow International Corp. (NASDAQ: FLOW) is up more than 44% at $3.50. The industrial products company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenues after markets closed last night. The stock also got an upgrade from ‘market perform’ to ‘outperform’ from Northland.

Pharmacyclics Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) is down more than -15% at $12.34. The cancer and immune system drug maker was downgraded to ‘sector perform’ at RBC Capital on lowered expectations that the company may be acquired in 2012.

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) is down more than -13%, at $1.19. The cancer treatment maker announced a $20 million sale of preferred stock and warrants that could boost the number of shares of common stock outstanding by 17.4 million.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is up more than 3.5% at $16.90. The conglomerate raised its quarterly dividend from $0.15/share to $0.17/share, the fourth increase since September 2010.

Stay tuned for Monday. Here are some noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – Short-term Treasury note auctions
• 1:00 p.m. – Three-year Treasury note auction
• 2:00 p.m. – US Treasury budget release

Have a great weekend.

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Paul Ausick

The companies we’re looking at include Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Office Max Inc. (NYSE: OMX), Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS), Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR), Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID), Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO), Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN), PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM), and Luxottica Group S.p.A. (NYSE: LUX).

Diversity aside, most of these stocks have very high implied gains, which means either that they are worth a second look or that there is no hope that any will ever hit their targets and that a lower target is soon to come. Which result will occur depends to a large extent on competitors in the same business, the overall economy, and whether consumers regain some of their lost confidence.

All data from Yahoo! Finance, with current prices taken at about noon today.

Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) has a median target price of $4.00 from 13 brokers. Shares are trading today at $2.30, for an implied gain of $1.70, or 74%. Office Depot’s forward P/E is 28.5 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $1.75-$6.25, and at today’s price that’s about 31% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 63% below the 52-week high.

Analysts didn’t expect much from Office Depot in the third quarter, and the company failed to deliver even that. EPS was break-even compared with an expected EPS of $0.01. Revenue also missed estimates. The implied gain in this stock is purely illusory when you consider its earnings and its immodest forward P/E.

Office Max Inc. (NYSE: OMX) has a median target price of $7.50 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $5.10, for an implied gain of $2.40, or 47%. Office Max’s forward P/E is 7.39 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $3.90-$19.20, and at today’s price that’s about 31% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 73% below the 52-week high.

Office Max reported that net income rose last quarter but revenue fell, as a result of cost-cutting measures. The company expects full-year revenue to be flat with last year. The company also plans to continue closing stores. There’s little long-term happiness in store for the company.

Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) has a median target price of $19.00 from 16 brokers. Shares are trading today at $14.69, for an implied gain of $4.31, or 29%. Staples’ forward P/E is 9.58 and the company pays a 2.8% dividend yield. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $11.94-$23.75, and at today’s price that’s about 23% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 38% below the 52-week high.

Staples has been rumored as a possible buyer of either Office Depot or Office Max or both. The company’s market cap of $10.5 billion is about 10X the market cap of the other two combined, so such a deal is not out of the question. Staples’ target price is now lower than its 52-week high, a sign that analysts don’t expect a lot of growth. That could either spur the company to go ahead with an acquisition or cause it to sit on its hands.

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) has a median target price of $15.50 from 4 brokers. Shares are trading today at $11.52, for an implied gain of $3.98, or 35%. B&N’s forward P/E is 33.87 and the company pays a huge 8.1% dividend yield. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $10.30-$12.65, and at today’s price that’s about 12% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 9% below the 52-week high.

B&N is trying to keep up with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) in the e-reader/tablet market. The company is set to announce a new entrant in its Nook device family on Monday. Somehow, taking on the two biggest players in the market with a device that costs more than a comparable device from Amazon and has far less capability than an Apple iPad just doesn’t seem like a long-term winning strategy.

We would like to note that 3 of the 4 analysts that cover this stockstill have Buy or Outperform ratings, with the mid-May downgrade fromWachovia on valuation being the exception.  That being said, theaverage price target is roughly $27.00 and on last look the highesttarget was $28.00.  Shares sit today up almost 4% at $26.80.  If thisholds today, that will mark a high close for this operator and managerof physician groups.  We would caution that if this performance continues then analysts will have to either raise their targets or make the "valuation achieved" calls, but that is for you to decide.

We would note, as we have noted before, that Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) would still fit this bill technically (as it did before)since its January 2008 IPO as shares are still up about 100%, but thisstock is down roughly one-third since its highs in June during theagriculture and machinery hype and highs.

Jon C. Ogg
September 3, 2008

ATA Inc. (NASDAQ: ATAI) has seen a 51% gain since its January 28 IPO after its near 1% gain today.  This one is thin volume and has had a post-IPO range of $8.02 to $17.45.  ATA’s IPO priced at $9.50.  At least no one confused this one with the former ATA Airlines.

Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) has been a real winner and by the name you’d put this one in the "Land of Duh!" category.  This one is up over 80% since the April 21, 2008 IPO at $58.00.  Its IPO priced at $32.00 and its post-IPO trading range is $43.36 to $61.37.

Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) is technically a 2007 IPO as it came public on December 5, 2007.  But it is the single best post-IPO performer with a gain of more than 200%.  That is even after a 4% drop today to $26.17 late in the day.  Its IPO priced at $8.50, but its post-IPO trading range over the last seven months is $11.50 to $27.79.  Take a guess why… ag-equipment.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) has been a beast since its March 19, 2008 IPO, even though it is already more than $10.00 off of its highs.  Shares are up some 80% from its $44.00 IPO pricing, although its post-IPO trading range is $55.00 to $89.84.  Even if you just count the post-IPO lows that you could have bought it at, it’s still up close to 45%.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other developments in IPO’s, secondary financings, spin-offs, mergers, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
June 12, 2008

The company said that equipment sales are projected to increase about 20% for Q3 and up about 20% for Fiscal 2008.  Included in the forecast is about 5% of currency translation impact for the year.  Its previous guidance of +17%. 

The company has noted that rising material costs and the availability of various parts and components will pressure results for the rest of 2008. 

This can’t be a shock to anyone, except maybe that it wasn’t even worse, but Deere is looking for a 3% drop in equipment tied to housing and forestry.

If agriculture infrastructure companies can’t out-pace materials costs in the current Ag-trade environment, then what does this tell you about investing in that sector from here with new money after this sector has seen huge gains????

Deere shares are down almost 6% at $84.92 after closing at $90.19 yesterday; its 52-week trading range is $56.50 to $94.89.

This is also pulling shares of Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) down by about 1.25% at $83.00 in pre-market trading; its 52-week trading range is $59.60 to $87.00.

But the real impact from this is going to be in Titan Machinery Inc. after its hugely successful post-IPO trading. Titan owns and operates full service agriculture and construction equipment stores. Its shares are down over 3% at $20.25 pre-market; and its post-IPO range is $11.50 to $24.50.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2008

The company has announced today that an agreement to acquire Mid-Land Equipment Company, L.C. has been signed. Mid-Land owns six dealerships in Iowa and Nebraska and earned $48.3 million in revenues in fiscal Dec-2007. The Fargo-based full-service agricultural and construction equipment store operator will own 48 stores after the completion of the transaction, which is expected to close May 30, 2008 pending customary closing conditions

Shares of Titan are up 2% to $20.57 in late morning trading. The post-IPO trading range is $11.50 to $24.50.

You can also sign up for our open email distribution list to see about other secondary offerings, IPO’s, break-ups, spin-offs, and more.

Rachel Lopez
May 12, 2008

Monday, the company reported fourth quarter and fiscal results. Revenue increased by 61% from $84.0 million a year ago to $135 million this quarter. They posted a net income of $270,000, or $0.02 EPS, meeting guidance. The company recently signed an agreement to acquire Quad Country Implement, a single store in Iowa. Titan raised its 2009 outlook for revenues and earnings per share. Excluding the stock offering filed today, the company would have 13.8 million shares outstanding, for guidance estimates of $0.87 to $0.92 EPS in 2009.

The company now plans to issue 3 million shares of common stock and selling stock holders are planning to sell an additional 500,000 shares. They intend to use the proceeds from the offering to fund potential acquisitions of CNH agricultural and construction equipment dealerships or for general corporate purposes. Additionally, they may invest the proceeds in short to medium term interest bearing securities. The interest will be used for the above purposes.

The company began trading publicly December 6, 2007 at $8.50 per share. The share price has risen to the lower twenties.

The underwriters for the offering are listed as Craig-Hallum Capital Group and Robert W. Baird and Co. They have been given the option to purchase 525,000 shares for over-allotments.

Shares for Titan are down almost 13% after 90-minutes of trading to $19.38 on heavy trading volume. The post-IPO range is $11.50 to $24.50.

Rachel Lopez
April 29, 2008

What is interesting is that ETF’s often get duplicated or see similar ETF launches.  As it turns out, the "MOO" ETF was the "other" ETF.  The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (AMEX: DBA) has actually been around longer, although it is a commodity ETF rather than ETF full of stocks that stand to benefit from agriculture trends.  The "DBA" has also outperformed the "MOO" by quite a margin. It’s even more actively traded.  The DBA" tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index- Optimum Yield Agriculture Excess Return, which is composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.

The "MOO" is up from its $41.30 first trade to $55.10 on today’s close, which is up more than 33%.   The "DBA" is up from its $26.72 open the same day to $41.99, which is a 57.1% gain.  That’s about the same gain as a year ago too. 

Jim Cramer recently gave his big picks to benefit from rising commodity prices.  This is always a bit of a stump when one ETF in the same group does so much better than its rival.  After all, these are deemed the new mutual funds.  But the gains in many of the commodities have been what has helped the actual stocks inside the "MOO."

When you look over the best IPO’s of recent months, the best or second best so far is Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) with roughly a 100% gain from its $8.50 IPO price from early in December.  There was a recent hot-sounding IPO filed and there was also spin-off IPO that is coming down the pipe in the agriculture sector, and that may create more buzz around a sector that has been hotter than most would have guessed. 

Trends can continue beyond what the doubters would ever guess.  Just always remember that after a huge run up like this, nothing lasts forever.  Caveat Emptor.

Jon C. Ogg
March 12, 2008

Titan owns and operates a network of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores, it might not come as that much of a surprise.  Three years ago or more no one cared about any of these agriculture plays, but now with ethanol, China, India, Africa, Latin America, biodiesel, switchgrass, a hearty appetite to stuff our bellies, commodity traders, and every other issue chewing up everything we can grow, this is one of the hottest sectors in an otherwise crummy market.  It’s almost as though every farmer in Africa, Asia, and Latin America can suddenly buy up the world’s food supply and spend unlimited amounts on machinery and ag services.

This one came public in early December so it’s only about 60-days old.  Craig Hallum and Robert W. Baird were the only underwriters, so it is likely that this won’t get the largest or strongest analyst following.  But traders don’t mind, and in fact you might think they prefer it.  Baird started this with an Outperform rating in mid-January at the peak of the market sell-offs when everyone was negative daily.  But out of the end of 2007 IPO’s, this one appears to be the leader in percentage gains.  This priced at $8.50, and has traded in a range of $11.50 to $18.50.  Today shares are up almost 4% at $16.85.

As of last look this had only 205,272 shares in the short interest, which is close to 1.0 days to cover.  The market cap as of last look is $225 million.  Traders who love agriculture obviously love this one.  Investors who got shares at the IPO are up nearly 100%, and any investor who bought on the heels of its IPO are up close to 50%.  Not bad for this market.

Jon C. Ogg
February 12, 2008