KBB projects new vehicle sales for May of 1.415 million units, up 6% compared with May 2012 sales, while J.D. Powers and Associates and others are looking for unit sales of 1.43 million vehicles, up 8% for the month.

Sales for General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) are expected to rise 5.6% and the top U.S. automaker is expected to nab market share of 18.3%, according to KBB. Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) will see a sales jump of 8.7%, improving its U.S. market share to 16.6%. Sales at Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) are expected to slide 1.5% and the company’s market share is slated to fall by 1.1% to 14.1%.

The largest sales gain in number of vehicles sold will be posted by Nissan, up nearly 20%, followed by Volkswagen, which is expected to see a gain of 9.2%. Nissan’s market share will rise by nearly a full percentage point, to 7.8%, mostly at the expense of Toyota. Chrysler Group LLC is expected to post a gain of 7.3% in unit sales and increase its market share to 11.4%.

While some brands barely received any criticism, others got a hefty share. Mini was the most complained-about brand in 2012, with almost 646 complaints per 100,000 cars sold from 2005 through the end of 2012. Based on data provided by Edmunds.com, these are the cars with the most complaints per 100,000 vehicles sold.

Click here to see the cars with the most complaints

The most complained-about cars are not necessarily the least popular ones. They include some of the most-purchased cars in America and some of the least. Dodge and Nissan, which sold more than 5 million vehicles from 2005 through 2012, had the fifth and sixth most complaints per 100,000 vehicles sold. Other makes with a high number of complaints per vehicle, like Mini, sell less than 100,000 units per year.

For many of the cars that received the most complaints, the issues may be affecting customer loyalty. For the five worst-performing brands on our list — Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Mini and Smart — less than one-third of car owners purchased the same brand again. The top car brands for customer loyalty retain 45% to as much as 60% of their customers.

In most instances, the number of complaints in 2012 rose compared to previous years. For example, 4,958 complaints were lodged against Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) vehicles, much higher than the 3,395 annual average of complaints between 2008 and 2012.

It is important to note, however, that vehicle sales also have increased sizably in the past several years. In 2009, Ford sold just over 1.4 million vehicles. The number of vehicles Ford sold in each of the years after rose, reaching almost 2.2 million by 2012. Similarly, for General Motors Co.’s (NYSE: GM) Chevrolet, sales have risen from 1.3 million in 2009 to more than to 1.8 million in 2012.

To determine the 10 car brands with the most complaints, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed sales figures and information on complaint submissions to the NHTSA published by Edmunds.com for the year 2012. We then calculated the complaints made in 2012 per 100,000 vehicles sold by brand between 2005 and 2012. Makes were excluded from the list if complaints figures were not available or if the car brand was no longer actively manufactured and sold in the United States — eliminating makers such as Mercury and Saturn. References to the most complained about model are only in reference to complaints made in February 2013. Loyalty figures, which represent the percentage of drivers turning in a car who intend to buy a new vehicle from the same make, were also provided by Edmunds.com for 2012.

These are the cars with the most safety complaints.

The editors at Kelley Blue Book (KBB) have named their 10 best cars for American families based on criteria such as safety, roominess, comfort and value. That seems like a pretty good list to us, and KBB’s choices appear to strike a reasonable balance.

Click here to see the 10 best cars for the American family

It is worth pointing out that of the top 10 there is only one minivan, the Honda Odyssey. Minivans are declining in popularity among American families due to a combination of factors. Fuel economy for the minivans is lower than for smaller cars like the Honda Accord or small SUVs like the Honda CR-V. Minivan designs have not really kept pace with new small SUV designs either. As a result, minivan sales are falling. The Honda Odyssey, for example, sold more than 135,000 units in 2008, compared with around 126,000 in 2012.

KBB’s list includes a vehicle for nearly every purpose, from a bulky Chevrolet Suburban that costs more than $51,000 and gets combined city-highway fuel mileage of 17 miles per gallon (mpg) to a Honda Accord that costs less than half that amount and gets 27 mpg combined. The Accord sold nearly 332,000 units in the United States in 2012, compared with just over 48,000 Suburbans.

Another difference among the cars on KBB’s list is revealed in the five-year cost of ownership. A Suburban costs more than $63,000 to own over a five-year period, compared with a cost of around $35,000 for an Accord. The Accord’s resale value at the end of five years totals 43% of its sales price, where a Suburban retains 38% of its original value.

Which cars are selling best? The clear leader here is Volkswagen’s Passat, which has seen sales jump from about 30,000 in 2008 to about 117,000 in 2012. The Passat is also priced just barely higher than the lowest price Accord.

The top-ranked family car based on customer loyalty in the Edmunds ranking is the Toyota Avalon. Some 43% of Avalon owners who are trading in their cars for a new model plan to buy another Avalon. About 40% of Honda Odyssey owners plan to buy another Odyssey, and nearly 39% of Suburban owners plan to buy another Suburban. These numbers indicate that the cars’ owners believed that they received exactly what they anticipated when they bought the first version of the car. That is a pretty strong endorsement.

One note on the data that follows. KBB lists its 10 best cars by trim level, whereas Edmunds groups the cars more generally by model name. Many of the reviews referenced in the piece from groups like J.D. Power, Edmunds and Consumer Reports are for the most recent available period, and in some cases may be for the 2012 model.

The announcement of fiscal year financial results said:

On a consolidated basis, net revenues totaled 22.0 trillion yen, an increase of 18.7 percent compared to the previous fiscal year. Operating income increased from 355.6 billion yen to 1.32 trillion yen, an increase of 965.2 billion yen, while income before income taxes was 1.40 trillion yen. Net income increased from 283.5 billion yen to 962.1 billion yen.

Major factors contributing to the increase in operating income include the positive effects from marketing activities generating 650.0 billion yen, cost reduction efforts saving 450.0 billion yen and currency fluctuations of 150.0 billion yen, which offset the negative effects from related expenses of 300.0 billion yen.

Consolidated vehicle sales totaled 8.871 million units, an increase of 1.519 million units compared to the previous fiscal year.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued the first good news about the federal budget deficit since the 2008 recession and the huge stimulus program meant to pull the economy out of its dive. In another sign that the economy has turned upward, individual tax receipts were a large factor in the improvement. On the other hand, higher tax rates may have been the cause. Ironically, experts believe that these taxes could hurt the consumer later in the year, which would undermine improvements in the size of the deficit. According to the CBO’s monthly budget review:

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $489 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2013 (that is, from October 2012 through April 2013), according to CBO’s estimates. That amount is $231 billion less than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year, primarily because revenue collections have been much greater than they were at this point in 2012. In contrast, federal spending so far this year has been slightly lower than what it was last year at this time.

And:

Individual income and social insurance (payroll) taxes together increased by $184 billion (or 16 percent).
Taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks rose by $99 billion (or 9 percent), mainly because of higher wages and salaries, the expiration of the payroll tax cut in January 2013, and increases (beginning in January) in tax rates on income above certain thresholds.

Nonwithheld receipts rose by $80 billion (or 30 percent), primarily because of higher payments made during the tax-filing season (February through April). Those payments—largely representing final payments for the 2012 tax year—increased by $66 billion (or 36 percent). Income tax refunds declined by $6 billion, further boosting receipts. The large increase in payments accompanying people’s income tax returns probably reflects the fact that higher-income taxpayers, anticipating changes in tax law, realized more income in 2012.

Those final payments submitted with 2012 tax returns (net of refunds) were substantially greater than the amounts CBO projected in its February 2013 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023. The agency will issue updated budget projections for the 2013–2023 period next week.

Net corporate income taxes were higher by $24 billion (or 22 percent), probably reflecting growth in taxable profits in both calendar years 2012 and 2013.

China’s Trade Growth

China reported a strong trade surplus for April. The problem is that few analysts believed information from the People’s Republic. Experts have been skeptical about China’s economic data for years. One reason is that the central government wants both its population and the world to have faith in the power of the Chinese manufacturing machine. Another is that local governments issue data to make themselves look better in the eyes of the central government. The AP says about China’s trade growth in April:

China reported stronger April trade but analysts said export data were inflated and its shaky recovery might be weaker than it looks.

Exports rose 14.7 percent over a year earlier, up from March’s 10 percent growth, customs data showed Wednesday. Imports gained 16.8 percent, up from the previous month’s 14.1 percent.

That suggested the world’s second-largest economy might be improving after an unexpected decline in growth to 7.7 percent in the first three months of the year from the previous quarter’s 7.9 percent.

Analysts say, however, that Chinese export data are unreliable, possibly due to companies submitting inflated prices for their goods to evade capital controls and bring money into the country.

“We believe the strong trade growth is not indicative of a growth recovery,” said Zhiwei Zhang of Nomura in a report

Toyota Earnings

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) issued financial data that showed that in the short term the auto manufacturer has experienced a recovery. Toyota’s fortunes mostly have gotten better since the Japanese earthquake shut many of its plants, and it went through a series of embarrassing recalls of millions of its vehicles. The announcement of fiscal year financial results said:

On a consolidated basis, net revenues totaled 22.0 trillion yen, an increase of 18.7 percent compared to the previous fiscal year. Operating income increased from 355.6 billion yen to 1.32 trillion yen, an increase of 965.2 billion yen, while income before income taxes was 1.40 trillion yen. Net income increased from 283.5 billion yen to 962.1 billion yen.

Major factors contributing to the increase in operating income include the positive effects from marketing activities generating 650.0 billion yen, cost reduction efforts saving 450.0 billion yen and currency fluctuations of 150.0 billion yen, which offset the negative effects from related expenses of 300.0 billion yen.

Consolidated vehicle sales totaled 8.871 million units, an increase of 1.519 million units compared to the previous fiscal year.

Bain and Golden Gate are close to a $6.4 billion buyout of BMC Software Inc. (NASDAQ: BMC). (Reuters)

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android opens an app store in China. (Reuters)

Sales of the Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) Camry and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) Accord are hurt by new competition from U.S. car manufacturers and Hyundai. (WSJ)

“Iron Man 3,” released by Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) studios, sets weekend records with $175.3 million in ticket sales in North America. (WSJ)

Norway may increase its taxes on oil production. (WSJ)

Neiman Marcus Group may set an initial public offering. (WSJ)

Institutional Shareholder Services tells J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) stockholders not to vote for the three members of the bank’s risk management committee. (NYT)

Buzzfeed will try to expand its foreign news content. (NYT)

President Obama may support the export of natural gas. (FT)

The European Union could put a 40% tariff on Chinese solar panels. (FT)

YouTube may start to charge for some video channels. (FT)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) will not buy Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) bonds because of their low yields. (Bloomberg)

Many of the world’s largest carriers will not sell the iPhone because of the fees Apple wants to charge them. (Bloomberg)

According to information released by car data site Edmunds.com, the brand of vehicle you buy may determine how long you will keep your vehicle — whether you will own it for less than four years or more than seven. The average age of a Buick traded in during 2012 was 7.47 years. The average Smart vehicle traded in during 2012 was just 3.09 years. Based on the average trade-in age of the major car makes sold in the United States, these are the cars Americans are most likely to trade in.

Click here to see the seven cars most likely to be dumped

Many of the makes on this list represent only a small part of the U.S. auto market. Five of the seven car brands each had 0.5% of U.S. market share in 2012 or less. Smart, which had the lowest average trade-in age, barely sold 10,000 units last year. By comparison, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) had 15 separate models that each sold more than 25,000 units. The Ford F-150 sold 434,000 units.

One factor that may contribute to people turning in these cars sooner than most is dependability. Based on the 2013 J.D. Power Initial Quality Study, which measures the number of reported problems new owners have with their cars, five of the car brands had more reported problems per 100 vehicles than the industry average. Mini and Smart were worst and third worst, respectively, among the 34 makes surveyed by J.D. Power.

While dependability appears to be a factor for the brands with shorter trade-in timelines, the actual age of the brands may also be a factor. Cars with older average trade-ins, such as Buick, Lincoln and Chrysler, have had a major presence in the U.S. for decades. Companies with shorter trade-in times, such as Smart and Scion, are relatively new in the United States. One factor that likely leads to Smart cars having a lower average trade-in age is that most of the Smart cars in the country are less than five years old.

Two cars that were among the most likely to be returned are owned by drivers that can afford to get the newest model. While Porsche and Land Rover were owned for less than five years on average, both cars have among the highest loyalty ratings; drivers are much more likely to buy another Porsche or Land Rover than most other cars.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed Edmunds.com data on the average trade-in time on the 32 largest U.S. vehicle makes in 2012 to identify the car brands that are turned in in less than five years. Edmunds.com provided us with U.S. sales and market share, as well as the average time on lot for 2012. Edmunds.com also provided brand loyalty data, which represents the percentage of drivers trading in a car who planned on buying the same make or model they owned. For each of these models, we also reviewed J.D. Power’s Initial Quality and Dependability study, which measures the number of complaints by make per 100 vehicles both for new owners and those who have owned the vehicle for three years.

These are seven cars most likely to be sold, returned, or, to put it another way, dumped.

During BMW’s first quarter:

Group revenues totalled € 17,546 million (2012: € 18,293 million; -4.1%).

And:

Group net profit came in at € 1,312 million (2012: € 1,352 million; -3.0%). The total number of BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce brand vehicles delivered to customers worldwide in the first three months of 2013 rose by 5.3% to 448,200 units (2012: 425,528 units).

While some observers might consider the financial drops to be evidence the company has trouble, the fact that BMW’s home market is Europe should set aside such worries, particularly because it did not fail there. In context, that means BMW did not falter in Europe the way that firms like Volkswagen, General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) have.

The BMW Group improved its position in practically all regions of the world during the first quarter. Sales volume increases in Europe (207,243 units; +3.1%), the Americas (96,488 units; +5.0%) and Asia (130,219 units; +9.5%) all contributed to evenly balanced growth for the BMW Group.

The U.S. market has surged in the first quarter, and BMW’s Europe sales improvement nearly match those in the American market.

There could be several explanations for the BMW results. Among them are that wealthy buyers have not had income drops during the recession like those of the middle or lower classes. Another is that BMW has remarkable brand loyalty. There is evidence of this in brand valuation studies. The leader of this sort of research — BrandZ — puts BMW’s brand value at $26.4 billion. That is well above the brand value of the world’s number two car company, Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Compared to the Japanese company, BMW is a niche manufacturer. And not a single U.S. car brand is in the BrandZ top 100 global brands.

Brand loyalty will always remain a mystery. Does the public’s positive impression of a brand come before strong sales, or do strong sales come before strong brand valuation? Many BMW shareholders do not care. Their company has unprecedented advantages.

Month-over-month, Chrysler’s sales fell about 8.6% from 171,606 units sold in March. The company’s Chrysler brand had a sales decline of 13% in April, far worse than the 2% decline in March. Sales of the company’s Jeep brand rose 2% year-over-year, after a decline of 13% in March.

Chrysler’s April sales mark the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth. Sales of Dodge-branded vehicles rose 18%, somewhat higher than the 15% year-over-year growth posted in March. The Ram pickup truck brand got a sales boost of 49% to its highest level in six years. That is considerably higher than the Ram increase of 24% in March.

At Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), April sales rose 18% for the month year-over-year, to 212,584 units sold. In April 2012, the company sold 180,350 units. Sales in March of this year reached 236,160.

The company’s push to improve its Lincoln brand appears to be gaining some traction. Sales rose 20.7% year-over-year in April, but year-to-date, Lincoln sales are down 13.4% for the first four months of 2013. That is an improvement from the first two months of 2013, when Lincoln sales were down 46.6%, compared with the first two months of 2012.

Shares of Ford are up about 1% in the first few minutes of trading this morning, at $13.74 in a 52-week range of $8.82 to $14.30.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) will report sales later today.

Green car sales rose nearly 41% year-over-year in 2012 according to a report from Experian Automotive cited at greencarreports.com. Of the more than 15 million cars sold in the U.S. last year, 3.1% were green compared with 2.2% in 2011. That’s nearly half a million hybrids and all-electric cars.

Okay, so that isn’t very many. But it’s making a difference in the amount of oil we burn for transportation fuel and it will make a bigger difference as the years go by. The following chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2013 Annual Energy Outlook indicates that by 2025 more than 7 million alternative-fuel vehicles will be sold annually in the U.S. The EIA expects 9% of all light-duty vehicles sold in 2040 to be either hybrids or all-electric. Given the rapid rise in sales in 2012, that forecast may be too conservative.

What difference does that make? In 2006, the EIA forecast that U.S. consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel would reach 17 million barrels a day by 2025. A new forecast now indicates that consumption is likely to reach just 10 million barrels a day, 43% less than the earlier estimate. Hybrid and electric cars don’t make up all that difference, of course, but they do punch above their weight.

Energy economist Philip Verleger points out in his latest weekly newsletter that new car sales people are telling customers that purchasing a new, fuel-efficient car at currently low interest rates can sharply cut their monthly variable expense for fuel by raising slightly their fixed monthly payments. This is a powerful message for cash-strapped consumers and it helps sales not only of green cars, but also of new, more fuel-efficient gasoline and diesel models.

Changing U.S. auto buying and driving habits will take time, but in the dozen or so years since its introduction, the Prius hybrid from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) has become the best selling car in California. Green cars are not likely ever to become the best selling cars in the U.S., but their sales will increase and likely even faster than new EIA projections.