Posts for Ticker ‘TRV’

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (BIIB, CMA, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, MAT, HK, TRV, YUM, ZRAN)

These are this Tuesday morning’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in early Wall Street research notes:

Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) Started as Buy at Soleil.
Comerica (NYSE: CMA) Cut to Market Perform at BMO Capital.
Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ: ENER) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) Raised to Buy at Citi.
Petrohawk Energy (NYSE: HK) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
YUM! Brands (NYSE: YUM) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Zoran Corporation (NASDAQ: ZRAN) Cut to Hold at Collins Stewart.

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JON C. OGG

Posted on: March 9, 2010 – 8:17 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Short Sellers Attack Buffett Holdings (BRK-B, BRK-A, AXP, BAC, BDX, KMX, KO, CMCSA, COP, COST, XOM, GCI, GE, GS, GSK, HD, IR, IRM, JNJ, KFT, LOW, MCO, NLC, NKE, PG, RSG, SNY, STI, TMK, TRV, USG, UNH, UPS, WMT, WPO, WFC, WLP, WSC)

Short selling is seen for many reasons, but universally traders tend to track short selling to track the biggest changes in the short interest twice each month.  Whether these are hedges, forward delivery trades, or just raw short sales, the trend is generally viewed as a bet against the overall market.  During the month of February, we saw short selling increase at both the NASDAQ and at the NYSE.  And it turns out that the short selling increased against more Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B, BRK-A) stocks than those short positions which were lightened up.

The total NYSE short interest rose by 3.78% to 14,002,613,200 shares versus 13,492,652,518 shares in the period ending January 29, 2010.  NASDAQ short interest was up 4.75% to 7,019,657,092 shares versus 6,701,137,021 shares ending January 29, 2010.  It turns out that the best against Warren Buffett’s core holdings were frequently far higher than these short interest averages.

  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) was 14,752 shares, up 98% from 7,452 shares;
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) was 29,538,177 shares, up 101% from 14,698,348 shares.

The bets against Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway were likely left over arbitrage plays or more importantly were index addition bets that the stock would drop after it was added to the S&P 500 index.  We took a look here at the few first that actually saw a decrease in the short selling.  These are Buffett stocks which saw traders making lower bets against his portfolio stocks as follows:

Posted on: February 25, 2010 – 7:05 pm in Buffett, Conglomerates, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway 2010 Stock Holdings R to Z (BRK-B, BRK-A, PG, RSG, SNY, STI, TIF, TMK, TRV, USB, USG, UNH, UPS, WMT, WPO, WFC, WLP, WSC, UNP)

This is the list of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) public equity holdings as of December 31, 2009…. so these are his positions going into 2010.  We have broken these into 3 groups for ease and these are the holdings listed in the group of ‘R to Z.’

  • Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) is a raised holding of 8.29 million shares after he started the position the prior quarter in his move to invest with (or behind) Bill Gates.
  • Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) more than 3.9 million shares, same as before.
  • Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) is a decreased position of almost 2.4 million shares, down from 3.079 million shares a quarter ago and down from 3.2+ million two quarters ago.
  • Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is NOT a common stock… but Buffett still holds the preferred shares and warrants.
  • Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, same as before.
  • Travelers Cos (NYSE: TRV) is the same as 27,336 shares, a tiny holding.
  • US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million; Same as quarter before.
  • USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, same as before.
  • United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) is a decreased holding of 1.175 million shares, down from 3.4 million shares a quarter ago and marks the third consecutive decline in holdings here.
  • United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, same as before.
  • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is an increased position at just over 39 million shares versus 37.8 million a quarter ago and well above the 19.9+ million shares two quarters ago.
  • Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, same as before.
  • Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was an increased position of close to 319.5 million shares versus 313.3 million shares a quarter ago and above the 302 million two quarters ago and even above the 290+ million shares three quarters ago.
  • Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) is a decreased position of 1.343 million shares, down from 3.394 million shares a quarter ago and down 3 quarters in a row.
  • Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.703 million shares, same as before.

Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) was eliminated as a holding as Buffett already had his all-in bet on America with BNSF.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to F’

BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘G to P’

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JON C. OGG

Posted on: February 16, 2010 – 5:10 pm in Activist Investor, Banking, Buffett, Conglomerates, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

DJIA 2010: Best Targets Imply 11,455 (BAC, CVX, CSCO, GE, HPQ, INTC, JPM, KFT, PFE, PG, TRV, WMT, XOM, AA, BA, DIA)

We have started taking a look at the 30 stocks comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average to see which stocks had the most implied upside of all DJIA components.  We have taken a snapshot of the “mean price target” of each of the 30 DJIA components based upon Thomson Reuters consensus price targets for a year out.  This list is expanded beyond just the ten with the most upside because there were more than 10 components with expected double-digit returns and because the list was also dominated by financial and energy stocks.  The list of double-digit performance expectations is as follows: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Cisco Corporation (NASDAQ: CSCO), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM).

As you will sadly see, Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) and Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) shares imply more downside than upside as those two stocks are the only DJIA components already trading above their implied one-year consensus mean price targets.  We first looked at the Warren Buffett stocks last week with the most implied upside and decided to run the calculation on the 30 DJIA components for this week.  The implied results show each ticker, the closing price for 2009, the mean price target from Thomson Reuters, the expected percentage price gain derived by the change in Friday’s price to the mean target, and we even included the 52-week trading range of each component.  The results are as follows:
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Posted on: January 4, 2010 – 6:59 am in Analyst Calls, Banking, Dividend, ETF, Economy, Editor's Picks, Financial Stocks, Index, Large Cap Stocks, Oil & Gas, Shareholder Issues, Trading Alert, Value Investing, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Stocks For Buffett To Unload (BRK-A, BNI, COP, XOM, GCI, WPO, MCO, NSC, UNP, UPS, UNH, WLP, GSK, SNY, IR, STI, BAC, WFC, TMK, TRV)

We recently discussed the changes that have taken place inside Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) as Warren Buffett has gone higher up the food chain.  In his more focused and more opaque approach, it also seems that after a $44 billion deal including debt to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) that Berkshire Hathaway needs to further make some changes.  Buffett has been talking on and off about a whale of a deal, and that is what we got with the BNSF buyout.  Berkshire Hathaway Inc. lists 51 different subsidiary links inside the Berkshire Hathaway umbrella that are wholly owned or dominantly owned subsidiaries.  There are also more than 40 public US-listed stock holdings in there, and that is before you get into his preferred shares, convertible debt instruments, and debt for deal financing in big public companies.

We have taken a review of the Full Buffett Holdings and come up with a geared down version of his holdings here.  Some of these ‘encouraged’ sales are because of fundamental changes, and some are merely because they are too small to be a benefit even if they tripled in price.  Some are also a follow-on for action he has already taken or already hinted at.
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Posted on: November 24, 2009 – 1:01 pm in Activist Investor, Banking, Buffett, Conglomerates, Editor's Picks, Financial Stocks, Transports, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway Holdings P-Z Q3-2009 (BRK-A, BRK-B, PG, RSG, SNY, STI, TMK, TRV, USB, USG, UNH, UNP, UPS, WMT, WPO, WFC, WLP, WSC, WBC)

This is the list of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) public US equity holdings as of September 30, 2009.  As noted in the “A to F” and “G to O” lists, there have been changes since the cut off date and those have been noted where applicable. Here are Warren Buffett’s holdings and accompanying notes for the group ‘P to Z.’

  • Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) 96.3 million, the same as before.
  • Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) 3.625 million shares; NEW POSITION following Bill Gates.
  • Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) more than 3.9 million shares, same as before.
  • Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) 3.079 million shares; DOWN FROM 3.2+ the quarter before.
  • Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, same as before.
  • Travellers Cos (NYSE: TRV) 27,336; NEW POSITION but small.
  • US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million; Same as quarter before.
  • USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, same as before.
  • United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) 3.4 million shares; DOWN from 4.5 million last quarter and down from over 6 million in Q1.
  • Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 9.55 million shares, same as quarter before but this does not matter as Buffett is dumping his non-BNSF rail holdings.
  • United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, same as before.
  • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) 37.8 million; WAY UP from the 19.9+ million shares last quarter.
  • Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, same as before.
  • Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) 313.3 million shares; ABOVE THE PRIOR 302+ million last quarter and above the 290+ million in Q1.
  • Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 3.394 million; DOWN SLIGHTLY from the 3.5 million last quarter and from the 4.7773 million in Q1.
  • Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares, same as before.

WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) IS GONE after being 2.7 million shares last quarter.

BUFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to F’

BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘G to O’

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JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 16, 2009 – 5:11 pm in Activist Investor, Buffett, Conglomerates, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Positive Earnings Show From All 5 DJIA Components (T, MCD, MRK, MMM, TRV)

NYSE Floor ImageWe have seen earnings from five of the thirty DJIA components this morning alone.  All were above expectations, even if some of the year over year comparisons do not look that great at some.  We had AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM), and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) all on deck.  We included estimates from Thomson Reuters for comparison, as well as performance and relative color where applicable.
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Posted on: October 22, 2009 – 8:28 am in Earnings, , , , ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (ACE, ADSK, ADP, BCS, EAT, EP, LXK, NRG, PAYX, TRV)

These are this Wednesday’s top ten analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations which we have seen early on from Wall Street research calls:

ACE Limited (ACE) Started as Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
Autodesk (ADSK) Raised to Buy at Kaufman Bros.
Automatic Data (ADP) Started as Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
Barclays plc (BCS) Started as Outperform at FBR.
Brinker International Inc. (EAT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
El Paso Corp. (EP) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Lexmark (LXK) Raised to Neutral at JPMOrgan.
NRG Energy (NRG) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Paychex (PAYX) Started as Market Perform at RBC Capital Markets.
Travelers (TRV) Started as Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 21, 2009

Posted on: October 21, 2009 – 7:56 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

DJIA Changes Weightings: Higher Tech & Financial (GM, C, CSCO, TRV)

Money Stack ImageNow that General Motors (NYSE: GM) is bankrupt, the Dow Jones Index Team has decided to announce its DJIA component changes.  In this change, there were two components changed rather than just GM.  Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) is also getting the boot.  Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) are the replacements in the index.

Late Friday we gave our list of single replacement candidates for replacing GM in the DJIA 30, and we even dispelled a few names some were hoping for that did not actually make sense with the DJIA being a price-weighted index.  Cisco was our top tech pick for the slot, but Travelers was not in our group.  The notion that this was taken out of Citi makes for a slightly ironic index change.

Jon C. Ogg
June 1, 2009

Posted on: June 1, 2009 – 8:23 am in Autos, Banking, Financial Stocks, Index, Technology Companies, , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades (BIG, GLW, DRIV, DUK, KSS, MEOH, PFE, STP, TRV, WYE)

money-stack-image19These are the top pre-market analyst upgrades and positive calls we have seen from analysts this Tuesday morning:

  • Big Lots (BIG) Raised to Buy at Soleil.
  • Corning (GLW) Raised to Buy at Collins Stewart.
  • Digital River (DRIV) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Duke Energy (DUK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) Raised to Buy at BofA Merrill.
  • Methanex (MEOH) Raised to Outperform at CIBC.
  • Pfizer (PFE) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Suntech Power (STP) Raised to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Travelers (TRV) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Wyeth (WYE)  Raised to Buy at UBS.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: March 10, 2009 – 6:33 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Bernstein Dumps Insurers (ACE, ALL, CB, CNA, TRV, XL, AIG)

Burning_money_picFinancial stocks may have enjoyed sizable bounces from their lows in November and December, but not all analysts are following them up.  The insurrance sector and some of the re-insurance names have been downgraded by Bernstein.  Here are the following calls we have seen from their report:

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Posted on: January 6, 2009 – 7:56 am in Analyst Calls, Financial Stocks, , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (ACE, NLY, ESLR, GFIG, HOKU, ITG, GS, KR, MON, NDAQ, TRV)

These are some of the positive calls and upgrades we have seen from analysts this morning:

  • ACE Ltd. (ACE) raised to buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Annaly Capital (NLY) raised to overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Evergreen Solar (ESLR) raised to hold at Citigroup.
  • GFI Group (GFIG) raised to outperform at KBW.
  • Hoku Scientific (HOKU) raised to buy at Broadpoint.
  • Investment Technology Group (ITG) raised to outperform at KBW.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) raised to outperform at Wachovia.
  • Kroger (KR) raised to buy at B of A.
  • Monsanto (MON) raised to buy at BB&T.
  • NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ) raised to outperform at KBW.
  • Travelers (TRV) raised to buy at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg
September 17, 2008

Posted on: September 17, 2008 – 7:05 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

Insurers Sell Risk Management Via Verisk IPO (HIG, TRV, CNA, AFG, AIG, ACE)

Verisk_logoA company called Verisk Analytics Inc. has filed to come public via an initial public offering in a securities sale of up to $750 million worth of class A common stock.  The company did not provide any reference on the shares being offered nor any price indications.  This is an amalgamated risk management company that is actually owned by many insurance and financial companies as follows:

  • Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG)
  • The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV)
  • CNA Financial Corporation (NYSE: CNA)
  • American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG)
  • American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG)
  • ACE Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ACE)

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Posted on: August 13, 2008 – 2:08 pm in Financial Stocks, IPOs, , , , , , ,

Will Berkshire Hathaway Lower Its Buyout Standards?

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) may be setting its sights lower as far as the size of a merger it would pursue.  Reuters has reported that Warren Buffett gave an interview to a Swiss newspaper called Finanz and Wirtschaft saying the company was primarily interested in large takeovers.  Buffett said they would happily buy things in the $5 billion to $20 billion range, although potential targets are rare.  Buffett did note that they were confident they would be able to conclude several larger transactions soon in the interview.

We just ran several buyout targets that we widened out to fit the bill for a "whale" of an acquisition on Monday.

If Buffett looks at smaller companies then he will have a lot more to choose from.  It is somewhat surprising that Buffett has not looked at the retail and commercial banking sector since there are so many with healthy balance sheets and surpressed prices due to a temporarily inverted yield curve.  He has also failed on his promise to go big into power generation operations, and there are perhaps 5 or 6 names he could easily approach in that sector.

The truth is that if Buffett stoops down into the $5 billion to $20 billion range then there will be many opportunities for him.  Perhaps the largest reason for looking at larger deals is that he is probably concerned that he will be one-upped in a higher bid for any deal he considers in that $5 billion to $20 billion range.

Regardless of his comments, he needs to remove T-Bills as his single largest public investment at the current time.  Being too picky and just sitting on the sidelines for too long can come across as indecisive, even if you have made yourself into one of the world’s richest men. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 9, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 9, 2007 – 7:22 am in Conglomerates, Mergers and Buy Outs, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Berkshire Hathaway’s “Whale” Acquisition; Who Could It Be?

Stocks to Watch: BRK/A, MRO, TRV, WM, ALL, LEH, CHA, REP, OXY, DOW, VLO, E, MET, BF, DB, SNP

Warren Buffett was noted this weekend as saying he is tempted to find a "Whale" of an acquisition rather than just trying to catch a big fish.  Everyone knows that Buffett has called technology a widget that he wouldn’t buy, so what could this mean?

We screened stocks with some valuations that would entail Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) either selling many stakes it holds in public companies or that would require it to raise capital from the markets.  In order to do this we looked at the balance sheet and decided that the company cut off mark would be somewhere in the vicinity of $35 Billion for the company to still have ample cash to operate without stretching or minimizing activities.  We decided to go up to $80 Billion as the ceiling, thinking that Buffett could probably sell the idea and considering that this amount ‘could’ still occur if he stretched it big time.  He has already said that Geography is not a barrier any longer. 
The companies that trade at $35 billion to $80 billion have price to book value ratios of Less than 2.5, Price-to Earnings ratios of 15.0 or less, forward Price to earnings ratios of under 14.0.  There are many other measures such as discounted cash flows and return on equity that we could have run, but we thought we’d see what comes up. 

Companies that did not have ADR’s were screened out, even though this may not be fair.  He has mostly stayed away from energy companies, but his PetroChina (PTR) stake made us leave this in.  He has stayed away from banks, but since he has been aggressive into insurance we decided to keep this in there.

Here are some of the companies that showed up in the screen:
Marathon Oil (MRO), Travelers (TRV), Washington Mutual (WM), Allstate (ALL), Lehman (LEH), China Telecom (CHA), Repsol (REP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Dow Chemical (DOW), Valero (VLO), E N I (E), MetLife (MET), BASF (BF), Deutsche Bank (DB), China Petrolem (SNP). 

Here is the problem in evaluating the companies above: If you don’t think Buffett would take on the huge additional risks in insurance or if you think he’d shy away from a bank or brokerage firm, then Buffett would need to go into the chemical companies or into energy and refining.  Even if you scale down the size to say $20 Billion, you have the same type of companies in the mix, except you bring in some metal and commodity names.

What is the biggest problem in having roughly $40 Billion in cash and equivalents?  It’s obviously trying to put the money to work.  Buffett is not under the same pressure as private equity to put his cash to work.  His track record speaks for itself, but you have to wonder about the company down the road and what its strategy will be.  How far will they diversify?  Will they diversify?  When your holding period you evaluate a business on is "Forever" it makes for some interesting problems to have.

Jon C. Ogg
May 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 7, 2007 – 1:48 pm in Conglomerates, Financial Stocks, Mergers and Buy Outs, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,