The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 97 points to 12,720.48 (0.76%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 2 points (-0.06%) to 2,786.70, and the S&P 500 rose a bare 0.07% or less than 1 point to 1,315.37.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Google maintained as ‘buy’ but target price cut to $700 at Canaccord Genuity; Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan; Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) reiterated as ‘buy’ with $35 target price at Argus; Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $92 at Argus; and Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Google is down -8.78% at $583.39; Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is up 2.75% at $26.33; IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is up 4.48% at $188.61; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is up 1.42% at $7.06; American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) is down -1.94% at $49.96; General Electric is down -0.21% at $19.11; Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB is up 0.74% at $73.40; and Suntrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) is up 4.79% at $21.21.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Insmed Inc. (NASDAQ: INSM) is up nearly 30% at $4.94. The biotech company announced that the FDA has lifted a clinical hold on a lung disease drug.

The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is up nearly 18% at $3.17. The clothing retailer is rumored to be under consideration for a takeover by two private equity firms.

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) is up nearly 14% at $49.25. The general merchandise retailer is thought to be under consideration for a takeover offer from its largest shareholder.

NCI Inc. (NASDAQ: NCIT) is down nearly -32%, after posting a new 52-week low of $7.71 earlier today. The federal contractor will restructure to compensate for loss of contracts.

Cogent Communications Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CCOI) is down nearly -18% at $15.45. The network communications provider is suffering from the shutdown last night of the Megaupload.com website, one of Cogent’s largest customers, by federal authorities.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Maintained Buy but cut target to $700 at Canaccord Genuity.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
ICICI Bank Ltd. (NYSE: IBN) Cut to Underperform and named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Hold at Kaufman; Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $35 at Credit Suisse; Maintained Hold with $24 target at Canaccord Genuity.
JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ: JDSU) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
NCI. Inc. (NASDAQ: NCIT) Cut to Underperform at Wells Fargo.
Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. Co. (NYSE: TNP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN) Cut to Hold at Needham.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $92 at Argus.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 price target at Argus.
Western Union Co. (NYSE: WU) Reiterated Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) lowered targets and estimates by Credit Suisse.

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JON C. OGG

After the first half hour of trading, Dick’s Sporting Goods is up more than 9% at $39.83. Volume is already more than double the daily average. Volume has already double the daily average. The sporting goods retailer reported lagging sales, but offset that with a new $200 million share buyback program.

Tractor Supply is up more than 7.5% at $78.42, after posting a new 52-week high of $80.11. Volume has already surpassed the daily average. The farm and ranch retailer reported better-than-expected earnings last night and raised 2011 EPS guidance.

Sanderson Farms is up more than 6% at $50.33. Volume is heavy, at about 70% of the daily average already trading hands. The poultry producer is likely getting a boost from the latest federal report on crop prices, especially corn, which is expected to be both abundant and cheaper.

Williams-Sonoma is down nearly -13% at $34.02. Volume is already 4x the daily average. The home furnishings company cut its sales guidance and announced a new stock repurchase program this morning.

Infosys is down nearly -9% at $51.76. Volume is already 3x the daily average. The India-based business outsourcing company missed the consensus estimate for fourth-quarter EPS.

Paul Ausick

The companies we’re looking at include Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Office Max Inc. (NYSE: OMX), Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS), Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR), Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID), Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO), Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN), PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM), and Luxottica Group S.p.A. (NYSE: LUX).

Diversity aside, most of these stocks have very high implied gains, which means either that they are worth a second look or that there is no hope that any will ever hit their targets and that a lower target is soon to come. Which result will occur depends to a large extent on competitors in the same business, the overall economy, and whether consumers regain some of their lost confidence.

All data from Yahoo! Finance, with current prices taken at about noon today.

Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) has a median target price of $4.00 from 13 brokers. Shares are trading today at $2.30, for an implied gain of $1.70, or 74%. Office Depot’s forward P/E is 28.5 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $1.75-$6.25, and at today’s price that’s about 31% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 63% below the 52-week high.

Analysts didn’t expect much from Office Depot in the third quarter, and the company failed to deliver even that. EPS was break-even compared with an expected EPS of $0.01. Revenue also missed estimates. The implied gain in this stock is purely illusory when you consider its earnings and its immodest forward P/E.

Office Max Inc. (NYSE: OMX) has a median target price of $7.50 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $5.10, for an implied gain of $2.40, or 47%. Office Max’s forward P/E is 7.39 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $3.90-$19.20, and at today’s price that’s about 31% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 73% below the 52-week high.

Office Max reported that net income rose last quarter but revenue fell, as a result of cost-cutting measures. The company expects full-year revenue to be flat with last year. The company also plans to continue closing stores. There’s little long-term happiness in store for the company.

Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) has a median target price of $19.00 from 16 brokers. Shares are trading today at $14.69, for an implied gain of $4.31, or 29%. Staples’ forward P/E is 9.58 and the company pays a 2.8% dividend yield. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $11.94-$23.75, and at today’s price that’s about 23% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 38% below the 52-week high.

Staples has been rumored as a possible buyer of either Office Depot or Office Max or both. The company’s market cap of $10.5 billion is about 10X the market cap of the other two combined, so such a deal is not out of the question. Staples’ target price is now lower than its 52-week high, a sign that analysts don’t expect a lot of growth. That could either spur the company to go ahead with an acquisition or cause it to sit on its hands.

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) has a median target price of $15.50 from 4 brokers. Shares are trading today at $11.52, for an implied gain of $3.98, or 35%. B&N’s forward P/E is 33.87 and the company pays a huge 8.1% dividend yield. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $10.30-$12.65, and at today’s price that’s about 12% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 9% below the 52-week high.

B&N is trying to keep up with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) in the e-reader/tablet market. The company is set to announce a new entrant in its Nook device family on Monday. Somehow, taking on the two biggest players in the market with a device that costs more than a comparable device from Amazon and has far less capability than an Apple iPad just doesn’t seem like a long-term winning strategy.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $500 at Canaccord Genuity.
Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) Started as Neutral with $30 target at Credit Suisse.
Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) Cut to Underperform at Bernstein.
Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) Started as Neutral with $95 target at Credit Suisse.
Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: IART) Started as Neutral at BofA/ML.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Maintained Hold and $35 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Standard Motor Products (NYSE: SMP) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $80 at BofA/ML.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $100 at Argus.
Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.

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JON C. OGG

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) Maintained Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABAT) Cut to Market Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
Amazon.com inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Maintained Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
Complete Genomics, Inc. (NASDAQ: GNOM) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Emulex Corporation (NYSE: ELX) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late-Monday).
Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) Maintained Hold but cut 2011 targets and raised 2012 targets at Argus.
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) Reiterated Buy and Raised estimates at Jefferies.
Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Nielsen Holdings B.V. (NYSE: NLSN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) kept as Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

HCA Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HCA) has come off its so-called quiet period and analysts have initiated their coverage on the stock: Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs; Started as Buy at Citigroup; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse; Started as Outperform at RBC; Started as Buy at BofA/Ml; Started as Overweight at JPMorgan; Started as Overweight at Barclays.

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JON C. OGG

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) Started as Overweight at Barclays; Cut to Hold at Argus.
Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Reiterated Buy at Argus.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) Started as Outperform at JMP.
EarthLink Inc. (NASDAQ: ELNK) Raised to Buy at S&P Equity Research (late-Monday call).
Elan Corp. plc (NYSE: ELN) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $56 at Argus.
Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) Raised to neutral at UBS.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Started as Underweight at Barclays.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NYSE Euronext Inc. (NYSE: NYX) Maintained Buy at Argus.
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) Started as Buy at Roth Capital.
Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE: R) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Started as Overweight at Barclays.

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JON C. OGG

Alexander & Baldwin (NASDAQ: ALEX) Raised to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho (overseas).
CenterPoint Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNP) Reiterated Buy with $20 target at Argus.
DCP Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE: DPM) Started as Outperform and $45 target at Credit Suisse.
Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSYS) Reiterated Underperform at BofA/ML.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) lowered estimates but maintained $190 price target by Credit Suisse.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Added to Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotia.
Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Reiterated Buy and target raised to $57 at BofA/ML.
Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) Reiterated Buy with $61 target at Argus.
StanCorp Financial (NYSE: SFG) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
STR Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: STRI) Cut to Sell at Auriga.
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $65 at BofA/ML.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Maintained Buy with $40 target at BofA/ML.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) Reiterated Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks. 

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more. 

JON C. OGG

The fund tracks the price and yield performance of the IQ Global Agribusiness Small Cap Index. This now offers exposure to global small cap (and mid-cap) companies in the agribusiness sector, including crop production and farming, livestock operations, agricultural supplies & logistics, agricultural machinery, agricultural chemicals, and biofuels. The aim for using smaller-cap components is to benefit from rising food prices, increasing populations, and the growing demand for alternative fuels. The top holdings are listed as follows:

• Viterra Inc. (VTRAF) on the Pink Sheets as it is Canadian with a 9.3% initial weighting;
  Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) with a 7.97% initial weighting;
  Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) with an 8.54% initial weighting;
  and Nutreco N.V. from Europe with a 5.47% weighting.

There are more risks associated with this than in traditional US ETFs that focus either mostly or entirely upon US-listed companies.  The fund noted:

“As the Fund’s investments are concentrated in the global agribusiness sector, the value of its shares will be affected by factors specific to that sector and may fluctuate more widely than that of a fund which invests in a broad range of industries. The Fund also may be susceptible to foreign securities risk. Since the Fund invests in foreign markets, it will be subject to risk of loss not typically associated with domestic markets. Loss may result because of less foreign government regulation, less public information, less economic, political and social stability, or other factors. The Fund is exposed to mid and small capitalization companies risk.”

Investors may want to know that the ETF’s expense ratio is 0.75% per year.  There is a saying that goes “There’s an ETF for that” and this one lives up to that mantra.

JON C. OGG

AGCO’s North American region saw sales grow in the fourth quarter by about 47.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.  Europe was a source of weakness in 2010 due to the economy and structural issues of those nations.  AGCO expects that Western European farm equipment demand will grow in 2011 due to improved farmer profitability for grain and dairy producers. In North America, higher levels of farm income are projected to maintain demand for large tractors and combines.

Worldwide industry demand is expected to be flat or to increase modestly in 2011 compared to 2010 levels.  That was not really expected to be flat.  North America and Europe will be offset by less attractive government loan programs in Brazil. For guidance, AGCO sees 2011 adjusted earnings in a range of $2.50 to $2.75 EPS a share.  Where the problem comes up is that Thomson Reuters has estimates of $2.94 EPS.  Net sales are expected to range from $7.6 billion to $7.9 billion versus estimates of $7.45 billion.

AGCO is down 2% at $52.35 before the open.  Shares have run massively as the 52-week range is $25.48 to $56.18.  So far this is not having much impact on the much larger Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) nor is it having an impact on Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO).

Ag-equipment investors will want to take note here of these trends.  2010 and the start of 2011 is looking good because of food inflation and international demand.  Unfortunately, the comparable period gains will be difficult comparisons and there may be only so much growth to be had.

JON C. OGG