Posts for Ticker ‘TUES’

Companies Hit Hardest By Credit Crisis (AAPL)(SIRI)(CC)(DIS)(WMT)(MCD)

Updated: 31 October 2008

Angrybear_2Not all companies and industries will be hit equally hard by the consumer credit crisis. Operations such as Procter & Gamble (PG), McDonald’s (MCD), and Wal-Mart (WMT) may be safe. They either sell things people can’t do without or offer inexpensive goods and services that consumers can afford during a tough period. McDonald’s reported earnings today and its same-store sales were up in every region.The stock traded up on a day when the overall market was swamped by selling.

If the credit crisis gets substantially worse and only the most stable companies with the highest credit ratings have access to cash, some will not be able to maintain inventory. Other firms will be affected because their target consumers no longer have any discretionary income. The head of AutoNation (AN), the largest car dealer chain in the US, said that even his prime customers cannot get bank loans for new cars in many cases. "The banks are looking for every excuse possible to say no and they are saying no to good customers," Reuters quotes him as saying.

Neither set of companies has a bright future, but the ones who cannot finance their operations and inventories face almost immediate consequences

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Posted on: October 2, 2008 – 8:01 pm in Economy, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Big Retails Which May Close Or Downsize (CC)(BBI)(PIR)(CPWM)

CircuitcityIt is now no secret that we are in a very weak economic environment and if it is not an official recession it is for about 80% of the country.  We’ve already seen some retailers collapse entirely or at least fall into the restructuring chapters that protect the company from liquidation.  Among these are Sharper Image, Lillian Vernon, Mervyn’s, Ames, Harvey Electronics, Good Guys, Levitz, Bombay, Movie Gallery, Tweeter, and other former modest-sized retailers which have filed to shield themselves from creditors.

There are several larger retailers that are in real trouble. Some are at risk for bankruptcy and each of them could have to cut operations so much that their revenue would be a fraction of what it is now.

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Posted on: July 30, 2008 – 12:49 pm in Retail, , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Downgrades (AMAT, CSCO, ELX, TUES, UHS)

These are some of the downgrades or more cautious calls from Wall Street analysts this Friday morning:

  • Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) Cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  • Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) Removed From Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List, although the rating was maintained as Buy.
  • Emulex (NYSE: ELX) Cut to Hold from Buy at Needham; cut to Neutral from Outperform at Baird.
  • Tuesday Morning (NASDAQ: TUES) Cut to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Universal Health (NYSE: UHS) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg
July 11, 2008

Posted on: July 11, 2008 – 7:38 am in Analyst Calls, , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club (MSO)(TUES)

First Marblehead (FMD) Provides products for private education lending markets. Problems at SLM are not helping. Down to $11.69 from 52-week high of $57.56.

Martha Stewart Living  (MSO) A lot of bad news in print advertising today. Shares move down to $9.38 from 52-week high of $23.21.

Tuesday Morning (TUES) Retailer warns on profits. Falls to $4.41 from 5-week high of $18.50.

Coherent  (COHR) Company taken out of the S&P SmallCap 600. Drops to $24.85 from 52-week high of $33.38.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: December 18, 2007 – 3:38 pm in HI/LOW, , , ,

Cost Plus, Pier 1, & Tuesday Morning Different Paths (CPWM, PIR, TUES, BIG, SHLD)

When we see a blow-up at Tuesday Morning (NASDAQ:TUES) to the tune of this much, we look at other stores.  The truth is that Tuesday Morning is still a clearance center stock like a Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), although we have noted when we said Big Lots Chart Uglier Than Its Stores that Big Lots is on the lower-end of that quality spectrum.  Big Lots shares are down almost 3% at $16.30 at a new 52-week low in sympathy, although the drop in Tuesday Morning (NASDAQ:TUES) is now over 25% to $4.76 and well under its 52-week trading range of $6.44 to $18.50.
But there are two retail stores that are trading better today. Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR) is seeing shares up some 16% at $3.82 today after competitor Cost Plus (NASDAQ: CPWM) made two consecutive runs.  Shares of Cost Plus Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) were just covered by us pre-market Monday in our "10 Stocks Under $10" that we noted favorably.  It isn’t just that we trust the guidance and management saying they are still trying to turn this around and it isn’t that we feel the company will have no exposure to its credit card portfolio.  It is that this trades at enough of a discount to its tangible book value that we feel this stock could continue its recovery.  We were going to list this as one of our turnaround stocks that hasn’t turned around, but it has run more than 20% since Friday’s close.  Maybe this will keep running and maybe it won’t from our $4.39 closing price Friday (although the lowest it traded during market hours on Monday was really $4.41 at the open and it closed at $5.10). This is not without risk and it has traded this far under $10 for a deserving reason.  We’d wait after the big pop of the last two days, but the worst part of the business may be behind it.

Jon C. Ogg
December 18, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the SPECIAL SITUATION newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: December 18, 2007 – 3:31 pm in Earnings, Retail, , , , ,

Big Lots Stock Uglier Than Its Stores (BIG, TUES, WMT)

Shares of discount retailer Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) are seeing shares get hit pretty hard in a crummy discretionary spending environment.  The 2.1% drop to $19.98 is under the $20.21 52-week low, and that is actually getting close to a "cut in half" from that $36.15 high just back in May.

When this appeared on this list, it was almost sort of a snicker with "gee, no wonder" response.  Big Lots finds itself in a strange retail spot.  It isn’t Wal-Mart, but it competes for the same dollars from much of the same customers.  It isn’t a dollar-store, although it competes for those same dollars.  It’s really a hodge podge store that buys clearance or maybe close-outs in bulk, but there store merchandise changes and isn’t really static.  It’s basically like a Tuesday Morning, but messier and less organized and full of the stuff Tuesday Morning wouldn’t want to stock. 

I researched this one before for a Wal-Mart comparison before a planned CNBC visit.  It isn’t even in that league, and frankly it’s need to exist is something to consider.  The good news is that it does have customers who still go there looking for deals, even if they don’t always know what they are going to look for.  It’s also quite profitable and is expected by all to remain that way.  It’s even expected to see some growth in 2008 and a low P/E ratio of under 15 won’t scare anyone away.  So my personal opinion about the place is immaterial, although if a company could use some store re-habs it is Big Lots.

Stocks hitting 52-week lows do so for a reason.  It noted last week that its same store sales were down 0.5% for October, but total sales were down 1.6% year over year.  The company posts its earnings on Friday, November 20, 2007, so it is hard to imagine any miraculous recovery here before then.  At least not on its own.

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: November 16, 2007 – 1:33 pm in HI/LOW, Retail, , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (November 5, 2007)

ACA cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
ACW raised to Neutral at UBS.
AMSC started as Buy at Jefferies.
ATPG cut to Underperform at RBC.
BSC cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
BSY cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
CNP raised to Buy at Jefferies.
CPT cut to Neutral at B of A.
DRE cut to Neutral at UBS.
FSLR started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
GLF raised to Buy at Jefferies.
GNA raised to Outperform at CIBC.
HD cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
LLY cut to Underweight at HSBC.
LOW cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
MER cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
NLC raised to Neutral at UBS.
PDGI raised to BUy at Jefferies.
PVTB raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
TUES raised to Outperform at Piper Jaffray.
WCG raised to Buy at Jefferies.
WST raised to Buy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
November 5, 2007

Posted on: November 5, 2007 – 7:46 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,