Adtran Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) Reiterated Buy and $39 target at Argus.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Maintained Outperform but cut estimates at Credit Suisse (full details).

Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; Raised to Outperform at Leerink Swann.

AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Beam Spirits Inc. (NYSE: BEAM) Maintained Hold at Argus.

Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) Cut to Neutral with $20 target at Credit Suisse.

Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) Reiterated Buy with $130 target at Argus.

Heckmann Corporation (NYSE: HEK) Started as Outperform with $5 target at Credit Suisse.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Maintained Outperform but cut estimates at Credit Suisse; Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus; Cut to Market Perform at FBR.

Myriad Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: MYGN) Started as Neutral at BofA/ML.

ProAssurance Corp. (NYSE: PRA) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Rexnord Corporation (NYSE: RXN) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) Maintained Neutral and cut estimates at Credit Suisse.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

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JON C. OGG

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) added to Strong Buy List at Zacks.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (NYSE: BIP) reinstated as Outperform with $32 target at Credit Suisse.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).
Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) named Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) Started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Neutral at Janney.
Encana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to positive at Susquehanna.
Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) Cut to Neutral at Janney.
Joy Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG) Started as Equalweight at Morgan Stanley.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ (late-Tuesday).
OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML; Cut to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.
Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
United States Cellular Corporation (NYSE: USM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 target at Argus.

We were also given a new updated list of the prized Gabelli Focus Five List showing that all five positions were new positions as special situation stocks that the firm feels are undervalued to the market expectations.  This list outperformed in the last quarter and has significantly outperformed the S&P going back to the 2006 inception.

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Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDTI) met estimates, but missed on revenues after the close.  Shares are trading down 8.2% at $6.16 in the after-hours session.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE: MHP) is surging on news that Jana Partners and the Ontario Teachers are not just going activist… They took a stake and are pushing for the company to bust itself up to enhance value.  Shares are up almost 6% at $43.85 in active trading after the close.

Openwave Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: OPWV) is one that many have already forgotten long ago, but a wider loss and announcing job cuts is not going to help matters.  Shares closed down almost 2% today and shares are down another 6.3% at $2.07 in the after-hours session.

Siliconware Precision Industries Company, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SPIL) fell after reporting almost 2% sequential sales growth that seems to have missed the mark. Shares are down 8.8% at $4.52 after the close.

Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNCR) turned in an 8.5% earnings gain but also announced a patent settlement with Dashwire for cloud management patents; Synchronoss shares are up 6.7% at $30.70 in the after-hours session.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) is getting clipped in after-hours trading after posting a penny-lite $0.22 EPS and giving 5% growth guidance on earnings rather 5% to 10% previously along with lower margins.  Shares are down 9.7% at $15.00 in the Monday evening post-close period.

JON C. OGG

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) is the biggest problem child of the casual dining chain stocks today.  The company tanked last night when it said that its Q1 profit rose 24% to $0.58 EPS on revenue of $152.3 million; Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.57 EPS and revenue of $154.4 million. The problem is same-store sales that puts its forecast of 20% earnings growth at risk.  The quarter’s same-store sales rose only 0.1% and only 0.7% at franchised restaurants.  The problem is that both classes saw drops of roughly 3.7% at company-owned stores and fell 2.4% at franchise stores so far in April.  If you look at the prior growth of 20%, the implied earnings comes to about $2.04 EPS for the fiscal-year.  Thomson Reuters is looking for $2.06 EPS.  Its shares are down 18.4% at $41.61.

Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) is the other problem child, just to a lesser extent.
Earnings were $0.82 EPS, matching estimates. Revenues gained by 14% to $364.2 million and same-store sales rose 10% for company sites and 9.2% at franchise stores.  While Panera reiterated guidance, the slowing of growth was too much for a growth stock to handle.  The company sees next quarter of $0.81 to $0.83 EPS on 8.5% to 9.5% in same-store sales; and it reiterated a 2010 expected range of $3.40 to $3.44 EPS with a 6.5% to 7.5% gain in same-store sales.  The quarterly estimate from Thomson Reuters is $0.84 EPS next quarter and the annual estimate is $3.52 EPS.  Panera shares are down 6% at $81.00.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) are different in that they are ‘bar-b-q’ and burger chains, but both are growth chains and are marketing to the same customers.  Texas Roadhouse is down 7.8% at $14.32 and Red Robin is down 6% at $24.13.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) and PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB) may be a tad higher up the casual dining food chain with slightly higher average ticket items, but they are getting hit today as well.  Cheesecake is down 6% at $27.77 and PF Chang’s is down 5.8% at $43.73.

Two other casual dining behemoths are down with the sector, although as they are mature they are down less than the higher-beta growth chains: Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) and Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT).

Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI)  has Red Lobster, Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, The Capital Grille, Bahama Breeze, and Seasons 52.  Because it has more than 1,700 locations, its stock is down “only” 2.1% at $46.01.  Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) is down worse than Darden, but is off “only” 3.8% at $18.88.  It has almost 1,700 chains among its Chili’s Grill & Bar, On The Border Mexican Grill & Cantina, and Maggiano’s Little Italy chains.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is down as collateral damage and is meant for reference only.  It is after a lower per-person ticket and is the old McMex play.  This stock also rose almost $20.00 after earnings and guidance were better than expected just last week.  Its stock is down 2.3% mid-day at $135.83.

There are many issues that explain this.  Some will say that it is a more competitive environment.  Some already have.  But at the end of the day, this is a huge disappointment when you consider that we are supposed to be in the midst of a recovery and when people are finally getting hired back to actual paying jobs.  This is a notion that Americans are still hanging on to value and thriftiness, and for longer than what many analysts and economists (and company executives) have been thinking.

JON C. OGG

• Allergan (AGN) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
• BJ Services (BJS) Cut to Underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Citi Trends (CTRN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Elan (ELN) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
• Marvel Entertainment (MVL) Cut to Neutral at Janney
• Peabody Energy (BTU) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies; Reiterated Sell w/ $14 target at Auriga.
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
July 20, 2009

Imagine if (or when) you are forced to see the calorie, salt, and fat counts for many of your favorite foods such as Buffalo Wings at Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD). Or what about some of those oversized plates big enough for two or three meals at The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE)?  And what if you tally up the full calories and sodium in Chinese food at PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB)?  Or a Monster Burger at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB).  Or what about Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) chains like Chili’s for the Texas Cheese Fries?

We do not mean to pick on any single chain by naming menu items or chains, because this  could affect all big chain owners to the likes of Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE:WEN), Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH), Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC), California Pizza Kitchen Inc., (NASDAQ: CPKI), and many more.  The news of this had a significant negative impact on most of these stocks today when you consider we had an up market.

The restaurants would also be required to immediately furnish upon request additional nutritional data such as total calories, calories from fat, amounts of fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, sodium, total carbohydrates, complex carbohydrates, sugars, dietary fiber and protein.   A trick will be in making sure that the “serving size” matches up with the plate size actually served to you.

The “compromise” is said by the senators to combine key elements of the Menu Education and Labeling (MEAL) Act, sponsored by Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) and the Labeling Education and Nutrition (LEAN) Act, sponsored by Senators Tom Carper (D-DE) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).  The agreement also requires the disclosure of calories per food items on vending machines owned by individuals operating 20 or more vending machines.

Frankly, all of this information should be more available in restaurants if patrons request it.  Many chains disclose this along with food allergen alerts, but the obligation is on the patron.  Putting this directly on a menu or on a menu board may either encourage restaurants to work around the rules or may create other angles.  For restaurants to get around this, they can merely say “per serving” and just say how many servings are there.

Many of the fast food chains already make this data available on their websites and some have these pamphlets available upon request in their stores:

• McDonald’s gives its full nutritional list.
• Yum! Brands for Pizza Hut shows calories and other nutritional data even for pizza.
• P.F. Chang’s shows its nutritional data online for its entire menu.  Hint: not all plates are just one full serving; some orders are four servings or more.
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers allows you to customize your order to calculate nutritional values.
• Brinker’s chain Chili’s shows its nutritional information as well on its Menu site if you download the PDF.  Hint: The Texas Cheese Fries are 1,920 calories with 3,570 mg of sodium.
• Sonic also lists its nutritional count for its full menu.

Again, our intent here is to just show how some restaurant chains already make this available.  It is out there.  Some restaurants are easy to find the data and others are not.   The long and short of the matter of this is that it could help out some in the war on obesity and other preventative health measures.  Whether it helps out entirely, let’s just say old habits are hard to break.  And if iceberg salad with lemon juice was appealing to the masses, then they wouldn’t need to make pants above a 34-inch waist.

Here was how bad this was on some chain stock tickers: CPKI -6.88%, PFCB -6.3%, EAT -6.1%, BWLD -5.9%, CAKE -4.6%, SONC -4.3%, TXRH -4.2%, RRGB -3.9%, YUM -1.6%, and MCD -1.2%.

Jon C. Ogg

• Apollo Investment Corporation (NASDAQ: AINV) Cut to Sell at Stifel Nicolaus; shares are down over 5% on the call.
• AT&T (NYSE: T) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; shares down over 2%.
• GSI Commerce (NASDAQ: GSIC) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• McAfee (NYSE: MFE) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Senior Housing (NYSE: SNH) Cut to Neutral at UBS; shares indicated down 2%.
• Tessoro (NYSE: TSO) Cut to Sell at Soleil.
• Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) Cut to Underperform at Bernstein; shares down almost 3%.

Here are the top 10 pre-market analyst upgrades and downgrades:

• ALTR, AMZN, BCE, BIIB, LEAP, PDLI, CLUB, VAR, AUY

Jon C. Ogg
January 5, 2009

Texas Roadhouse put guidance for diluted EPS growth of 5% to 15% forfiscal 2008, which includes a $0.01 to $0.02 benefit from an extra weekin 2008.   Earnings on a diluted EPS basis grew 15% to $0.51 for fiscal 2007. So if we imply this 5% to 15% jump, we get a new target of $0.5355 to $0.5865.  We would note that there is a note discussing a $0.014 impairment charge, so some might add that number into the figure.  Unfortunately, First Call has estimates at $0.64 EPS so it is going to be clocked in as a projected earnings miss regardless of the realities in charges.

The metric that restaurant analysts are going to hate the most is that its benchmark comparable restaurant sales in the first six weeks of Q1-2008 actually fell by about 1.5% year over year.  Texas Roadhouse also put its comparable store sales for this year at a whopping Flat to +1%.  It also sees company-owned restaurant openings of roughly 30 units, which compares to its own number of "operating 288 restaurants today."

The company also announced a $25 Million stock buyback plan, although that obviously isn’t a winner after missing its targets.

Shares closed down 4% at $10.67 today ahead of the numbers, but in after-hours the restaurant chain is seeing shares trade down some 15% at $9.05.  With a 52-week trading range of $8.96 to $16.05, that is almost a new low.  That will be close to a post-IPO low as well, since this came public and traded at just under $12.00 at the end of 2004 before peaking at nearly $19.00 in mid-2005.

Before today’s after-hours drop, this one traded with a $798 million market cap.  Without factoring in for franchise or any license stores, that would generate a rough value of $2.5 million per store if you implied a 318 unit-count for the end of 2008 (or some $2.13 million now after the drop).  That would also give it a forward P/E ratio of about 15.9, which isn’t expensive but also doesn’t leaves any overly inspiring barbecue and grilled after-taste in any GARP or value manager’s mouth. 

If you own this one at higher prices you may have to wait a while (and hope) for a better month of sales, but if you are looking at this with new money it just looks fairly valued at levels around the new prices.  In a recession or soft economy, many may choose to enjoy their grilled barbecue and beer back at home.

Jon C. Ogg
February 19, 2008

• Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB)         3.304M  -1.13%
• Papa John’s (PZZA)                         2.245M   -2.91%
• McCormick & Schmick’s (MSSR)  1.497M   -6.22%
• Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)           3.293M    -6.4%
• Starbucks (SBUX)                          25.725M   -6.98%
• Cheesecake factory (CAKE)         11.636M   -7.55%
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)                7.066M    -7.93%
• CBRL Group (CBRL)                       4.727M  -14.92%
• P.F.Chang’s (PFCB)                         7.051M  +2.54%
• Panera Bread (PNRA)                      4.688M  +7.91%

Here are some key related articles that may give added insight:

• NYSE & AMEX Short Interest Decline
• Starbucks’ Founder Defends Company
• How Out of Favor Is P.F. Chang’s With Diners & Investors?  
• Cheesecake’s possible self-fix

Jon C. Ogg
September 26, 2007

Jon C. Ogg
September 25, 2007