Posts for Ticker ‘UNTD’

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (CHK, DD, FIG, FITB, KIND, MMC, MINI, STI, UNTD, VCLK)

These are the top ten pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations from Wall Street research this Thursday morning:

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Cut to Hold at Argus.
DuPont (DD) Raised to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Fortress Investment Group (FIG) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
Kindred Healthcare (KIND) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
March & McLennan (MMC) Raised to Market Perform at KBW.
Mobile Mini (MINI) Cut to Hold at Needham.
SunTrust (STI) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
United Online (UNTD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
ValueClick (VCLK) Raised to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 6, 2009

Posted on: August 6, 2009 – 7:51 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Internet’s Mixed Bag of Short Selling (AMZN, EBAY, GOOG, UNTD, VCLK, YHOO)

Unfortunately there is no real clear trend in the Internet sector stocks in the short selling from mid-August to late August as you will see below.

Internet                              Aug 29       Aug 15      Change
Amazon.com (AMZN)     27,684,633   28,183,474    -1.77%
eBay Inc. (EBAY)          34,620,483   33,432,230     3.55%
Google Inc. (GOOG)        5,802,455    5,565,930      4.25%
United Online (UNTD)       9,459,533   11,923,542   -20.67%
ValueClick (VCLK)         10,404,439   11,421,716    -8.91%
Yahoo! (YHOO)              41,153,923   37,879,991     8.64%

Jon C. Ogg
September 11, 2008

Posted on: September 11, 2008 – 1:42 pm in Internet, Short Interest, , , , , ,

United & FTD In Odd Merger (UNTD, FTD)

There may be one of the stranger mergers out there today in Internet land, as United Online, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNTD) is acquiring FTD Group, Inc. (NYSE: FTD) in a merger valued at some $800 million.

FTD shareholders will receive $7.34 in cash, 0.4087 shares of United common stock per FTD share, and $3.31 principal amount of United Online in 13% senior secured notes due in 2013. This total consideration, before any share change in UNTD will equate to $15.08 (based upon $10.83 United share price.

This furthermore comes to an total consideration received of $456 million to FTD, composed of $222 million cash, 12.35 million shares of UNTD, and $100 million in the debt.  After payments and disbursements have been made, FTD holders will still own approximately 15% of the combined United Online.

To complicate things further, United Online may elect to increase the cash consideration payable to FTD’s
stockholders by $2.81 in full substitution of the debt, so FTD stockholders could receive a total of $10.15 in cash and 0.4087 shares of United Online per FTD share.

We had featured United Online in our "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter, and one issue of our "Special Situation Investing Newsletter" featured United Online as one of teh small cap Internet stocks that could actually be rolled up by a larger player.

So far UNTD shares are up almost 8% pre-market on thin volume trading, and FTD shares are up almost 7% in pre-market trading; although the share volume was very thin.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about previews for other mergers, spin-offs, break-ups, IPO’s, special financings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the Special Situation Investing Newsletter for 247WallSt.com.

Posted on: April 30, 2008 – 7:31 am in Internet, Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

ISP Earnings Preview: Earthlink Vs. United (ELNK, UNTD, TWX)

Thursday is going to be an interesting earnings day if you follow the few independent Internet Service Providers (ISP’s).  EarthLink, Inc. (NASDAQ: ELNK) and United Online Inc. (NASDAQ: UNTD) both report earnings on Thursday, and these results may end up being closely watched by Jeff Bewkes of Time Warner inc. (NYSE: TWX) for some rather obvious reasons.

In the early morning we’ll get to see earnings out of EarthLink Inc. (NASDAQ: ELNK).  The estimates from First Call for the Internet access and communication provider are $0.15 EPS on $280.96 million in revenues, but be advised that the estimates vary greatly. Next quarter estimates are $0.21 EPS and $290.17 million in revenues, and fiscal 2008 estimates are $1.01 EPS on $ 1.07 billion in revenues.  Analysts have an average price target of north of $9.00.  At its last earnings, EarthLink gave a fiscal free cash flow target of $200 to $240 million, although it has more restructuring than analysts can agree on.  It listed the following for subscribers as of last quarter: narrowband at 2.856M and broadband at 1.093M for as total of 3.949M consumer subscribers.  For business customers it listed the following: 30,000 narrowband businesses, 68,000 broadband businesses, and 104,000 web hosting accounts for a total of 202,000 business accounts.  These numbers have shrunk in EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY.  Shares closed down about 1.2% to $6.67 on Wednesday and the stock’s 52-week trading range is $5.90 to $8.36.  Its market cap is $802 million.

On Thursday afternoon we’ll get to see earnings out of United Online Inc. (NASDAQ: UNTD). The estimates from First Call for the internet provider are $0.30 EPS on $127.82 million in revenues, although this one is very thinly followed by analysts and there are discrepancies on estimates beyond this quarter.  Estimates for fiscal 2008 are $1.10 EPS on $508.10 million in revenues.  It appears that analysts still have an average price target of $17.00, although we would again urge caution in trusting our number or anyone else’s on these.  The biggest problem here is that after its failed Classmates.com IPO got pulled, United has lost its mojo.  Unlike most Internet stocks, this actually has a decent dividend $0.20 each quarter. Its communications unit, or the ISP of NetZero and Juno listed that last quarter paying accounts had declined some 134,000 to 2.2 million; and this one is now harder to value directly compared because its content/media revenues were roughly two-thirds of the size of the Communications/ISP unit.  United Online closed up 1.5% at $10.87 on Wednesday, and its 52-week trading range is $9.55 to $17.97.  Its market cap is $735 million.

We have covered both of these in our Special Situation subscriber letter, and both are routinely screened for our weekly "10 Stocks under $10" subscriber letter.  In fact, both of these fit in our "small cap internet watch list" for companies that we think will ultimately either be acquired or will merge up under the right circumstances.  While these businesses are declining, there is actually some value here for the right financial asset buyer.  In a slowing economy it is even possible that a portion of those who prefer the more expensive broadband triple play packages from cable or the telecoms might not have a choice BUT to go back.  That may be heresy to some, but it is possible.

But we’d like to take a walk on Hypothetical Lane here.  If you are Jeff Bewkes at Time Warner inc. (NYSE: TWX) and want divest the rest of the legacy AOL Internet access business, you’d probably be watching these two reports quite closely. The TWX earnings call transcript from Blogging Stocks is here. This will derive an implied market value per subscriber on a discounted basis.  Based upon what you see there you would begin to work these numbers backwards.  How many independent broadband and narrowband ISP’s with large customer bases does the U.S. need with all the Internet access choices out there?  Under the right circumstances and a little creativity you might even be able to imagine a business threesome.

Jon C. Ogg
February 6, 2008

Posted on: February 6, 2008 – 10:38 pm in Earnings, Internet, , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AFFX, C, DIS, DSCM, GSIC, JBLU, PNRA, UN, UNTD, DVN, KWK, NFX, EOG, FTO)

These are not the only important analyst calls out there, but these are the top analyst calls that 24/7 Wall St. is focusing on:

  • Affymetric (AFFX) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Citigroup (C) saw its Debt rating cut from Aa2 to Aa3 and financial strength cut from A to B at Moody’s based on capital ratios.
  • Disney (DIS) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Drugstore.com (DSCM) started as Buy at Banc of America.
  • GSI Commerce (GSIC) cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Jetblue Airways (JBLU) raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
  • Panera Bread (PNRA) Cut to Neutral at Sun Trust Robinson Humphreys.
  • Unilever (UN) started as Buy at Banc of America.
  • United Online (UNTD) raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Credit Suisse makes downgrades in oil patch: Devon (DVN), EOG Resources (EOG), Frontier (FTO), Newfield Exploration (NFX), Quicksilver (KWK).

Jon C. Ogg
December 14, 2007

Posted on: December 14, 2007 – 8:19 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

United Online (UNTD) Cancels Classmates IPO

United Online (UNTD) has cancelled the much anticipated IPO of its Classmates.com operations.

According to the company, Classmates Media Corporation, intends to withdraw its S-1 registration statement as previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. United Online has determined that proceeding with the initial public offering ("IPO") under current market conditions would not be in the best interests of its stockholders.

United Online expects to record transaction-related costs of approximately $4.5 million to $5.5 million during the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2007 in connection with its decision to withdraw the offering

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: December 12, 2007 – 6:58 am in IPOs,

What To Expect From Classmates IPO (UNTD, MSFT, NWS, CLAS)

This week we expect the pricing of the Calssmates.com (NASDAQ:CLAS) parent Classmates Media Corp. IPO and partial spin-off from United Online (NASDAQ:UNTD).  We have noted recently and before that this Classmates.com is not a ‘normal’ social networking site like that of News Corp.’s (NYSE:NWS) MySpace nor like that of Facebook or Linked-In.  That $240 million investment from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) into Facebook created a slightly different measurement metric out there for the value of Social Networking.

We did note that United Online was attractive right after the original filing,but shares had just run up too much because investors appeared that theywere hoping for a repeat of the EMC-VMware play book.  Unfortunately, when United Online shares were running up, we noted for our Special Situation Investing Newsletter that we felt United Online shares were pricing in too excessive of a premium because of the upcoming spin-off of Classmates.com.  The implied value will be tracked and commented to by many investors, analysts, and fund managers.  Now that shares are back under $13.00, we do not feel as negatively regarding the United Online valuation. 

Classmates increased its revenue roughly 44% to $140.1 million during the first nine-months of 2007 and posted a profit of $1.7 million instead of a loss of $3.9 million in the first nine-months of 2006.

We have our own open email distribution list covering details of other IPO’s, special situations, spin-off’s, and merger candidates.  The current offering is for 12 million shares in a range of $10.00 to $12.00 per share.

Jon C. Ogg
December 10, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: December 10, 2007 – 2:50 pm in IPOs, Internet, , , , , ,

United Online Stock Price Dependent Upon Classmates.com IPO (UNTD, CLAS)

United Online (NASDAQ:UNTD) has definitely enjoyed a nice run into the upcoming partial spin-off and IPO of its Classmates.com unit.  This spin-off is what has contributed to huge gains in the stock under the current hype and hope for social media (look back to August). 

As far as when this will actually hit the market, that depends uponwhom you ask.  Since a filing of terms went in last week, there was abrief hope that it would hit this week.  But many think next week orthe week after next will be the actual IPO.  The truth is going to boil down toone thing: "market conditions."  For starters, Classmates.com has some value as you can see in the stock, but it looks and feels like investors may have gotten carried away with social networking valuations and maybe even gotten carried away with the VMware/EMC spin-off model comparison. 

United Online has a market cap of $1.16 Billion today based upon a $17.10 stock price.  It is going to keep and hold a majority position in Classmates, which will have a fully diluted market cap of $600 million to $720 million based upon a $10 to $12 per share IPO price range and only about 17% of the shares being listed in the float.

We have reviewed this on and off for the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and United Online even made potential internet buyout target list on our "Small Cap Internet Watch List, Part I of II" for the special situation subscribers when this was at $15.74 on October 21, 2007.

This run in United Online has gone up too much in anticipation and as it stands today in a market that demands rationale.   If Classmates was going to be a top destination that would be one thing, but it seems like this has a long way to go before Classmates.com can rival MySpace, Facebook or LinkedIn.  Classmates.com is a unique social media and social networking destination.  I have used it personally, but frankly it will not take out the business.  Alexa.com shows it having slipped in page rankings as of late.  Classmates’ social networking sites had more than 50 million registered accounts and 3 million paid accounts as of September 30.

The problem in saying something has run too much is that it can run on and on, i.e. Baidu.com reminiscent of tech bubble days and VMware and the VMware conundrum are two prime examples where a stock can run and run.  But both of this did come back down to earth, and in quite a hurry.

We will be sending out more detailed information regarding the IPO terms and implications to our open email distribution list a couple times ahead of the offering, regardless of today’s opinion after going through waves of up and down market days.

Jon C. Ogg
November 27, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: November 27, 2007 – 3:00 pm in IPOs, Internet, ,

United Online (UNTD) Looks For Redemption

United Online (UNTD) is in a crummy business. It sells dial-up internet service to about five million online customers. It is the business that AOL exited last year. Broadband has made it obsolete. The company’s revenues are only about $130 million a quarter.

United has a market cap of $900 million, so it trades at less than 2x sales. Its stock has gone nowhere since 2003.

But, all of that may be about to change. United also owns Classmates.com, a large social network set up to put together people who were in school at the same time. UNTD filed an S-1 yesterday to IPO Classmates and raise $125 million.

In the quarter ending March 31, Classmates had revenue of $42.4 million and lost $250,000. The business is growing. Revenue in 2005 was $84.8 million. Last year, that number rose to $139 million.

Based on the numbers that get thrown around for the value of Facebook. Classmates could be a high-priced property. It could well be on its way to revenue of over $200 million this year.

If so, Classmates is worth well over $1 billion, more than United’s entire market cap.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 14, 2007 – 5:30 am in Uncategorized,

Media Digest 8/14/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, profits at UBS rose to $4.7 billion in Q2, but the bank said the difficult markets could hurt second half results.

Reuters writes that Wal-Mart’s (WMT) Japanese unit, Seiyu Ltd, will post its sixth straight annual loss. The big US retailer has put $1 billion into the company.

Reuters writes that Starbucks (SBUX) believes that there is room for growth of its branded products such as coffee beans, ice cream and chocolate in supermarkets and convenience stores.

Rueters writes that data from the University of Michigan American Consumer Satisfaction Index shows that users are gave Yahoo! (YHOO) a better overall rating that Google (GOOG).

Reuters writes that Ford (F) will meet with India’s Tata Motors about sales of its Jaguar and Rover Brands.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Mattel (MAT) is close to recalling a second group of toys made in China.

The Wall Street Journal writes that 41% of Facebook users share personal data with strangers increasing the chances of identity theft.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the increase in video traffic on the internet could strain the capacity of the web’s infrastructure.

The New York Times writes that Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are both working on improving healthcare by combining better Internet search tools, the vast resources of the Web and online personal health records.

The New York Times also writes that the top lawyer at Qualcomm (QCOM) quit as legal problems for hte company increased.

The New York Times reports that a small study shows that children think food tastes better if they believe it came from McDonald’s (MCD).

The FT writes that VMWare will raise almost $1 billion in its public offering.

Barron’s writes that United Online (UNTD) as filed for an IPO of its Classmates.com unit, trying to cash in on the social networking rage.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: August 14, 2007 – 3:10 am in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , ,