Posts for Ticker ‘VCLK’

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (ARI, CSIQ, CSX, DDRX, HEV, INTC, NVDA, VCLK, VITC)

These are the top ten analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen from Wall Street research calls this Tuesday morning:

Apollo Commercial Real Estate (NYSE: ARI) Started as Overweight at Barclays; Started as Hold at Citigroup.
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) Raised to Equal Weight at Barclays.
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Diedrich Coffee (NASDAQ: DDRX) Cut to Hold at Roth Capital.
Ener1 (NASDAQ: HEV) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Valueclick (NASDAQ: VCLK) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
Vitacost.com (NASDAQ: VITC) Started as Buy at Needham; Started as Buy at Jefferies; Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 3, 2009 – 8:35 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

Today’s Best Market Rumors (10/7/2009) (NOK)(AAPL)(JPM)(GE)(WYNN)

newspaperUpdated throughout the day.

Updated 2:44 Dell Inc. (NYSE: DELL) will launch a branded Android smartphone thru AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and possibly other carriers next year.  Source today is from WSJ, but ask this… How many phone and consumer electronics announcements have been rumored on Dell?

Updated 1.36 PM EST:  Pimco left the bondholders steering committee at CIT (NYSE:CIT) last month  (CNBC)

Updated 12.45 PM:  Polycom (NSADAQ:PLCM) could be taken over by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) or Dell (NASDAQ:DELL). Interdigital (NASDAQ: IDCC) could be bought by Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and ValueClick (NASDAQ:VCLK) could be taken over by any one of a number of companies.  (Barron’s)

Updated 12.41 PM:   GM head of American sales leaves amid talk that car company CFO may be next  (CNNMoney)

Update 10.50 AM EST:  Congress may pass a bill which will require that public companies split the roles of chairman and CEO.  (MarketWatch)

Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) may be involved in the bidding for McGraw-Hill’s (NYSE:MHP) BusinessWeek working jointly with Zelnick Media. Strauss Zelnick is on the boards of Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO)  (PaidContent).

Citigroup (NYSE:C) may sell it Philbro unit which is paying its chief $100 million  this year.  (CNBC)

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has narrowed its list of CEOs to two people  (WSJ).

Foxconn has a deal to make 300,000 to 400,000 Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) tablet PCs to ship in Q1  (DigiTimes)

Collins Stewart believes that Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) are on the lookout for acquisitions. (The Deal).

Share sales by Steve Wynn, head of Wynn (NASDAQ:WYNN), and his COO may be” a canary in the coal mine to other investors to take some profits on the gains in this sector since the March lows.” That would include MGM (NYSE:MGM) and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS)  (TheStreet.com)

Private equity firms Bain Capital and THL Partners are asking banks that supported their buy-out of Clear Channel Communications to help restructure the firm’s debt. Those banks include Citigroup (NYSE:C), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).  (NYPost)

News Corp (NYSE:NWS) CEO Rupert Murdoch is in Japan and South Korea and may be discussing partnerships to build a rival product to the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Kindle.  (Reuters)

Vivendi will discuss selling its 20% stake in GE’s (NYSE:GE) NBCU at its October 19 board meeting to allow a transaction with Comcast (NADSAQ:CMCSA) which would involve the cable company getting control of media firm.  (BusinessWeek)

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) executive  Heidi Miller could be in the running for the CEO job at Bank of America. (The Big Money)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 7, 2009 – 9:22 am in Rumors, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (CHK, DD, FIG, FITB, KIND, MMC, MINI, STI, UNTD, VCLK)

These are the top ten pre-market analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations from Wall Street research this Thursday morning:

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Cut to Hold at Argus.
DuPont (DD) Raised to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Fortress Investment Group (FIG) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
Kindred Healthcare (KIND) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
March & McLennan (MMC) Raised to Market Perform at KBW.
Mobile Mini (MINI) Cut to Hold at Needham.
SunTrust (STI) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
United Online (UNTD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
ValueClick (VCLK) Raised to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 6, 2009

Posted on: August 6, 2009 – 7:51 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Too Much Credit For Big Tech Analyst Call (ATVI, AMZN, ERTS, IACI, GOOG, EBAY, NFLX, VCLK, YHOO)

money-stack-imageUBS made some key analyst initiations in the Internet and entertainment sector this morning.  As this is new coverage, they are not upgrades on a technical level.  These “Buy” ratings are also on a day where the market is back at near-term highs and during the week after we have a twelve consecutive day rally in the NASDAQ.  Today’s added strength this is helping is something that just seems too much based upon a new coverage call after the gains we have already seen in these stocks.   Below is a list of some of the stocks started as “Buy” and you will see the price targets as well.

  • Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI)
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) up 2.3% at $86.30; price target was $105.00.
  • Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) up 3.8% at $21.55; price target was $27.00.
  • IAC/Interactive (NASDAQ: IACI) up 3.3% at $18.60; price target was $21.00.
  • Google Inc. (GOOG) up over 3% at $450.20; price target was $525.00.

Read More »

Posted on: July 30, 2009 – 11:05 am in Analyst Calls, Internet, Technology Companies, , , , , , , , ,

Internet & Online Media Stock Expectations After Google Earnings (GOOG, BIDU, YHOO, IACI, VCLK, LOCM)

Money Stack ImageWhether you like the earnings report from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) or not, there are some key takeaways using the same metrics that Google uses for other Internet and online media stocks.   Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) has the most direct comparison,  particularly as everyone calls Baidu “the Chinese equivalent of Google.”  We won’t call it a knock-off, but we’ll leave it at that.  Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is on deck with earnings next week, and the metrics there have many comparisons to Google.  Then there isIAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) further down the list with the Ask.com ties.  On the standalone ad metrics, we would include ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), and lastly we want to address the much much smaller Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM).  There are many other media and online companies, but we are looking for the direct pure-plays in this so we are not comparing apples to oranges or tennis balls.
Read More »

Posted on: July 17, 2009 – 12:11 pm in Earnings, Internet, Media, , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (BCE, GOOG, IACI, SYMC, VCLK, CSL, CEO, JNS, MFE, SOLF)

These are the top pre-market upgrades and downgrades we have seen from Wall Street this Thursday morning:

BCE (BCE) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Google (GOOG) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
IAC/Interactive (IACI) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
Symantec (SYMC) Started as Buy at Auriga.
ValueClick (VCLK) Raised to Buy from Sell at Canaccord.
Carlisle Companies (CSL) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc.
CNOOC (CEO) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Janus (JNS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
McAfee (MFE) STarted as Sell at Auriga.
SolarFun (SOLF) Cut to Sell at Collins Stewart, but was also raised to Hold from Sell at Canaccord.

Jon C. Ogg
March 26, 2009

Posted on: March 26, 2009 – 7:26 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Internet’s Mixed Bag of Short Selling (AMZN, EBAY, GOOG, UNTD, VCLK, YHOO)

Unfortunately there is no real clear trend in the Internet sector stocks in the short selling from mid-August to late August as you will see below.

Internet                              Aug 29       Aug 15      Change
Amazon.com (AMZN)     27,684,633   28,183,474    -1.77%
eBay Inc. (EBAY)          34,620,483   33,432,230     3.55%
Google Inc. (GOOG)        5,802,455    5,565,930      4.25%
United Online (UNTD)       9,459,533   11,923,542   -20.67%
ValueClick (VCLK)         10,404,439   11,421,716    -8.91%
Yahoo! (YHOO)              41,153,923   37,879,991     8.64%

Jon C. Ogg
September 11, 2008

Posted on: September 11, 2008 – 1:42 pm in Internet, Short Interest, , , , , ,

52-Week Low Club (T, CCE, CHB, EBAY, GGC, GLBL, IGT, PAA, RRI, SGLP, TXT, VCLK)

52_week_low_imageWe’ve had essentially a 500 point rally in the DJIA in just the last two days and oil is starting to lose its mo-mo.  Yet some companies just refuse to participate in the rally because of news, and many look like they were caught in a mid-city explosion (hence the image). 

Regardless of how the market does you can always count on many news-driven or sector driven events causing new lows.  One thing is for sure during a weak economy and during choppy earnings, there will be many more stocks in the coming weeks hitting 52-week lows.  Some will continue hitting new lows over and over.

Read More »

Posted on: July 17, 2008 – 2:35 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , ,

ValueClick: An Omen for Online Ad Spending? (VCLK)

This morning ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) came out and dropped the bomb on forward guidance.  The immediate guidance isn’t such a bad issue but the forward guidance is.  It lowered revenue guidance by 2% to $163 to $164 million, but cost cuts helped earnings guidance to $0.17 to $0.18 (up $0.02 on both).

The online ad company cut its 2008 guidance from $730 to $745 million down to $655 to $675 million and cut prior EPS range of $0.81 to $0.83 down to a new lower range of $0.69 to $0.71.

There is a much more important issue than this company itself though, and one which could have ramifications if the company is right.  Tom Vadnais, CEO, said, “Due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, we no longer anticipate the seasonal strength in ad spending we typically see in the second half of the year.”  This concern might be analogous to the tail wagging the dog. 

ValueClick is essentially the last man standing on an independent basis in the online ad impression sector.  Its market cap is also only about $1.1 Billion after a drop of 16% to $11.50 this morning (a new 52-week low).  But this may have ramifications elsewhere.  Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) bought DoubleClick. WPP acquired 24/7 Real Media (formerly TFSM).  Microsoft paid a vast sum for aQuantive (formerly AQNT).  And every other major media and content company has been making their online ad spending acquisition plays.

There are two scenarios here and both are as logical as a coin toss.  Either the slowdown in online ad spending is systematic and is going to slow everywhere.  That would be really bad for the giants who spent billions to buy players in this field.  The second possibility is that customers are opting to just bypass ValueClick since they don’t necessarily need an independent online ad placement firm.  With the dominance of Google and others, it is possible that online advertisers are just going direct to the top 4 or 5 online destinations directly as they all have their own departments for this.

We are now in the midst of a full fledged earnings season with literally dozens and dozens of companies competing for headline attention.  This is one of those situations that may get overlooked, but it will be critical for all online ad players and online media companies who live on online ad payments.  We’ll probably get a better handle on this after the close of today when Google and Microsoft report earnings.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008

Posted on: July 17, 2008 – 9:09 am in Earnings Warning, Internet, Media, , , , , , , ,

Cult Stock Earnings Bonanza (DIVX, VCLK, CROX, HANS, LOCM, RNWK, RICK, TRLG, VG)

While most of the investment community goes out breaking down earnings for major stocks, there is a huge interest in many of the cult stocks reporting earnings.  Among the cult stocks we have reporting this week, the following is a list of key stocks reporting:  DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ: DIVX), ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), CROCS Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX), Hansen Natural Corporation (NASDAQ: HANS), Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM), RealNetworks Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK), Rick’s Cabaret International Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK), True Religion Apparel Inc. (NASDAQ: TRLG), and Vonage Holdings Corporation (NYSE: VG). 

Cult stocks are often fad stocks, but they tend to see explosive volume on news and often have high short interest.  Many of these stocks have been covered in our weekly "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter we send out too.  Here is a breakdown of these individually:

Read More »

Posted on: May 5, 2008 – 1:35 pm in Cult Stock, Earnings, , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AMT, CCI, SBAC, BEAV, GWR, HOLX, SWY, KNOT, MDCO, UBS, VCLK)

Below are the top 10 pre-market analyst we are looking at this Thursday morning:

  • American Tower (NYSE: AMT), Crown Castle (NYSE: CCI), and SBA Communications (NASDAQ: SBAC) all initiated as BUY at Jefferies.
  • Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • BE Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • Gennesee & Wyoming (NYSE: GWR) raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
  • Safeway (NYSE: SWY) raised to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
  • The Knot (NASDAQ: KNOT) downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • The Medicines Co. (NASDAQ: MDCO) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • UBS (NYSE: UBS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) raised to Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
February 14, 2008

Posted on: February 14, 2008 – 7:23 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AMGN, ENP, NTAP, PT, QCOM, SWIR, VCLK, VRSN, WY)

These aren’t all of the impact analyst calls, but these are the key calls that 24/7 Wall St. is focusing on:

  • Amgen (AMGN) raised to overweight at Lehman.
  • Encore Energy (ENP) started as Overweight at Lehman.
  • Network Appliances (NTAP) raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns; estimates raised at Goldman Sachs.
  • Portugal Telecom (PT) raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, but cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings estimates cut at Goldman Sachs.
  • Sierra Wireless (SWIR) cut to Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.
  • ValueClick (VCLK) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • VeriSign (VRSN) cut to Hold from Buy at WR Hambrecht.
  • Weyehaueser (WY) raised to Buy at Lehman.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Posted on: November 15, 2007 – 7:57 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Earnings Gappers (November 2, 2007)

(ALY) Allis-Chalmers $0.37 EPS vs $0.36 est.
(ASVI) A.S.V. Inc. $0.13 EPS vs $0.19 est.
(BEBE) bebe stores traded up 3% despite slight revenue miss.
(CBB) Cincinnati Bell $0.09 EPS vs $0.08 est.
(CI) CIGNA $1.14 EPS vs $0.93 est.
(DUK) Duke Energy $0.48 EPS vs $0.39 est.
(ENCY) Encysive -$0.32 EPS vs -$0.31 est.
(ERTS) Electronic Arts trading up 3% after beating earnings.
(GYI) Getty Images traded up 5% after earnings.
(HAIN) Hain Celestial rose almost 5% after beating earnings expectations.
(HIMX) HIMAX trading up 7% after earnings.
(IP) International Paper $0.57 EP vs $0.57 est.
(ITRI) Itron trading down 11% after earnings.
(LVS) Las Vegas Sands trading down $16+ to $109 pre-market on net loss.
(MSO) Martha Stewart Enterprises -$0.08 EPS vs -$0.13 est.
(NI) NIsource $0.08 EPS vs $0.10 est.
(NTLS) NETELOS $0.18 EPS vs $0.14 est.
(NYX) NYSE $0.76 EPS vs. $0.73 est.
(OMG) OM Group $1.30 EPS vs $1.17 est.
(RDEN) Elizabeth Arden $0.04 EPS vs -$0.05 est.; sees Q2 $1.11-1.16 vs $1.21 est.
(SGMS) Scientific Games down 4% after earnings.
(SYNA) Synaptics traded up 10% after beating earnings expectations.
(VCLK) ValueClick trading down 0.5% after lackluster earnings.
(VIA) Viacom $0.65 vs 0.60

Posted on: November 2, 2007 – 7:31 am in Earnings, Pre-Market Activity, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

ValueClick’s In-Line Numbers Surprisingly Well Tolerated (VCLK)

ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ:VCLK) posted revenues of $156.9 million and EPS of $0.17, versus prior forecasts of $156 to $157 million and $0.16 to $0.17 EPS.

Third quarter 2007 revenue was negatively impacted primarily by continued weakness in the lead generation portion of the Company’s Media business segment, partially offset by better than expected results in the Comparison Shopping segment.

The guidance for next quarter is $172 to $177 million and adjusted EPS $0.17 to $0.18.  Consensus estimates are $0.20 EPS and $177.75 million.  Fourth quarter 2007 guidance for diluted net income per common share includes a reduction of $0.03 per diluted common share for stock-based compensation expense and assumes a 42.5% net effective income tax rate.

The company is lucky the reaction wasn’t worse, because it is trading up under 1% in after-hours trading.  There must at least be some relief that Microsoft-aQuantive and Google-DoubleClick (if that one is allowed) is not going to destroy the company.  Shares closed down 7.7% at $25.08 in regular trading, and the 52-week trading range is $18.06 to $36.70.

Jon C. Ogg
November 1, 2007

Posted on: November 1, 2007 – 3:17 pm in Earnings, Internet,

Cramer’s Next Internet Stock Gapper (VCLK, OPWV, GOOG, MSFT, YHOO)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer reviewed ValueClick (NASDAQ:VCLK) as the next potential advertising company that could see a huge gain.  After Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) bought DoubleClick and after aQuantive was bought for a huge premium by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), this is the last of the independent Internet advertising stocks that should be acquired.  Cramer even thinks that Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) may need to acquire it.  Cramer came up with a figure that if DoubleClick and aQuantive revenue multiples were used with a 15% discount that you could see $59.67 or $34.00.  We had noted the same thing about 24/7 Real Media after Yahoo! acquired Right Media, and partially on the notion that ValueClick and aQuantive had once held merger talks.

If you are interested in Internet stocks that also may be taken over, we are getting ready to release our own internal "watch list" of small cap Internet stocks to subscribers of our Special Situation Investing Newsletter that we have kept private.  We do not believe theese are currently takeover targets, but under the right circumstances and prices these could all easily become subsidiaries of the current Internet giants.  Two companies that were acquired this year off that list this year were Web.com and 24/7 Real Media.

The Web.com buyout was one we had been calling for basically two-years before it happened, and they let things get south compared to when there was huge value.  Be careful on betting on major premiums just because of others.  We noted this specifically where 24/7 Real Media was giving itself away too cheaply.

One free peek on our list is OpenWave (NASDAQ:OPWV), although we think this one has worked itself into such a bind that a true buyout would be a "saving bid to scoop up on the cheap" after a major sell-off rather than a footrace with a major premium.

Jon Ogg
October 8, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the "Special Situation Investing Newsletter" and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: October 8, 2007 – 5:39 pm in Cramer, Internet, , , , ,

Is Yahoo! (YHOO) Better Off As Two Companies?

Yahoo!’s (YHOO) international operations are OK, especially if you compare them to the domestic part of the company.

In the last quarter, Yahoo! US grew only 5% to $1.11 billion. International operation grew 15% to $579 million. There is level of currency risk/reward in the overseas businesses. And, the company has at least two very valuable assets. One is its 34% ownership in Yahoo! Japan which was valued at just under $7 billion as of June 30.. Softbank is the other large owner. In the second quarter, revenue at the Japanese company rose 20% to $482 million.

Yahoo! also has a 44% interest in Chinese online company Alibaba. The e-commerce operation plans to go public and raise $1 billion in the current quarter. Yahoo!’s piece of the company is certain worth in the billions of dollars.

It is fair to assume that with Yahoo! trading at 5.3 times sales, an new independent international company would trade closer to 7x to 8x. That is about $18 million. Add in Yahoo!’s ownership in the Chinese and Japanese companies and the market value of Yahoo! International would  probably be closer to $25 billion to $30 billion. The entire YHOO market cap is $36 billion now.

This leaves Yahoo! US with a value of $6 billion to $8 billion. That is for the part of the company that has a $4,5 billion run rate. It is only a 2x revenue valuation. Too low? CNET (CNET), a technology information portal trades for 2.8x. ValueClick (VCLK), an online advertising operation trades a 3.7x, which has been pushed up sharply by M&A rumors.

And, Yahoo! US is no longer growing.

This would leave Yahoo! US to cut costs and try to improve its display ad rates through new methods like behavioral targeting. Based on the company’s 10-Q, Yahoo! US had operating costs of $756 million before depreciation and amortization and stock-based costs. Could these costs be cut? If the new company was only operating in the US, it would seem likely.

Not unlike the upcoming plan to split Altria (MO) into two pieces, Yahoo! shareholders would get to have two bets to make and not one. The first company would be the faster growing overseas operation with valuable assets in Japan and China.

The second company would have a much lower growth rate. But, its cost cutting potential and the chance that it can do a better job of getting improved rates for its inventory might give the company a chance to improve a dismal performance. And, that could give the US shares some real upside.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 30, 2007 – 4:55 pm in Internet, , , ,

Internet Short Sellers Mixed Bag (EBAY, GOOG, VCLK, YHOO, AZMN, BIDU, VRSN)

Overall short selling has dimished for August, but it appears the short sellers are sticking around for a fight in some of the go-to internet stocks.

DECREASED SHORT INTEREST:

  • Google (GOOG)            5.124M     -5.19%
  • eBay (EBAY)                 30.013M   -15.7%
  • ValueClick (VCLK)        8.739M    -15.57%
  • Yahoo! (YHOO)            51.250M    -17.68%

INCREASED SHORT INTEREST:

  • Amazon.com (AMZN)   38.152M +6.51%
  • Baidu.com                      3.051M  +9.02%
  • VeriSign (VRSN)         16.305M  +76.00%

Related articles to this:

Jon C. Ogg
September 26, 2007

Posted on: September 26, 2007 – 8:10 am in Internet, Short Interest, , , , , , ,

Value-Clicked; After A Warning Is There Any More Value? (VCLK, GOOG, MSFT, WPPGY)

ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ:VCLK) is probably hoping that Main Street can find more value in the stock with its shares down 20% pre-market.  On Friday evening, the company expedited its earnings release date to this morning on a short notice that gave very little or no time to most holders to decide what if they wanted to hold shares into earnings.  That acts as a trap for holders who were probably already worried after the major market slide, and this eliminated the ability for shareholders to get out ahead of the news.

The current quarter was put at a new $0.19 to $0.20 pro forma EPS on revenues of $155 to $165 million.  Its new 2007 fiscal guidance is now $0.74 to $0.76 EPS on revenues of $645 to $660 million, lower than prior guidance of $0.79 to $0.81 EPS on revenues of $655 to $665 million.  All in all this isn’t exactly a horrible earnings warning, but it shows a possible crack and could magnify fears that DoubleClicks’s buyout by Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), the 24/7 Real Media buyout by WPP Group (NASDAQ:WPPGY), and the buyout of aQuantive by Microsoft (NASDAQ:AQNT) could all be too much competition for the last of the large independent banner, click, and image online advertiser.

With shares down just over 20% pre-market to $20.50, shares are now closer to the low-end of the $13.65 to $36.70 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  This will adjust its market cap down closer to $2.1 Billion if shares open trading here at the 20% haircut levels.  ValueClick is going to have some upset shareholders on its hands this morning.  It increased its share buyback program from $66 million remaining up to $100 million, but unless it rolls back the clock to Friday’s closing price this is going to fall on deaf ears.

Based on how far shares are off now from highs, it would sure seem that the larger acquisitions that were seen in the online ad sector have now all been completed.  Even if that isn’t the case, there are still a lot of holders that are ‘long and wrong’ that were hoping this one would be acquired too.  Until those holders get flushed out and a new shareholder base is established with a lower entry price, the chances of even a ‘hoped for’ or hypothetical deal coming close to current prices would likely face far more shareholder resistance than support.

Jon C. Ogg
July 30, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: July 30, 2007 – 8:25 am in Earnings Warning, Internet, Mergers and Buy Outs, , , ,

Crazy Short Sellers in Online Advertisers (May 2007) (VCLK, AQNT, TFSM)

Stock Tickers: VCLK, AQNT, TFSM

We have frequently noted how the short sellers are often motivated by different factors and have a longer-term outlook than Joe Q. Public.  We wanted to look at the few remaining Internet advertisers that hadn’t been acquired, and it’s official: short sellers in these names are either crazy or just stupid.  There were dozens and dozens of reports that the sector was in play after Google gobbled up DoubleClick, so being short those names was just ignorant.  It isn’t like they all went up in shares short, but the degree to which the shorts were still there just seems weird.  Short sellers are a different breed, that’s for sure.  This could have been titled "Online Advertisers: Short Sellers Kicked in the Shorts."

Stock (Ticker)                        MAY       APRIL  CHANGE
aQuantive (AQNT)               9.56M    8.47M    12.9%
24/7 Real Media (TFSM)    6.73M    7.08M    -4.9%
ValueClick (VCLK)              9.66M    9.95M    -2.9%

Jon C. Ogg
May 25, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 25, 2007 – 7:54 am in Internet, Short Interest, , ,

After aQuantive, 24/7 Real Media Deserves a Much Higher Price

The 24/7 Real Media (TFSM-NASDAQ) buyout price now looks silly after this premium that Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) is paying to acQuire aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ).  Lets forget about the percentage premiums and just look at the multiples.  At a $6 Billion payout based on forward revenues and earnings, there is a huge discrepancy between TFSM/AQNT. 

Depending on what service you use for forward estimates you come up with roughly 77-times forward non-GAAP earnings and about 9-times forward revenues.  These numbers would not have been this high if the bidding for aQuantive wasn’t so high, but Microsoft’s price is the rule-setter.

If you apply the same numbers to TFSM it is pretty sick.  On the forward earnings estimate basis for TFSM you can derive in the vicinity of a theoretical $37.50 price.  On a forward revenue basis you could derive something nuts like a $45.80 price.  The truth is that there is debt and intangibles and all sorts of ‘exceptions’ that would skew these numbers and you would have to be a mad man to believe that TFSM would really sell for a premium like that.  But in a bidding war environment where Google paid up for DoubleClick and where Microsoft goes out this far and this high to buy Aquantive means that management agreeing to a $11.75 buyout price is nearly cowardice.

The basic multiple comparisons are just not as fair because the only two companies that were identical in the models were TFSM and DoubleClick, so trying to use an exact comparison would be flawed.  On May 10, we noted that the starting valuations could put TFSM at a $11.81 starting price and a value that at certain extremes could fetch $19.75.  We noted that somewhere in the middle at say $15.00 or higher could be feasible.  So why is TFSM selling so cheaply?

This leaves ValueClick (VCLK) as the last ‘independent’ man standing, and that is up 11% today.

Jon C. Ogg
May 18, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 18, 2007 – 8:59 am in Bait Shop, Internet, Media, Mergers and Buy Outs, Technology Companies, , , , , ,